Shaw66

I'm completely in agreement. It's all about decision making. Watch Brady or Brees. They know what they're doing all the time. They make the right play all the time. They don't necessarily execute all the time, but they make the right choice, and they recognize what the right choice is very quickly. That is, they don't go back to the bench, look at a replay and say "oh, I see it now." They see the right choice as it's happening. they're really quite amazing at it. Allen has to progress in that direction. He has to increase the percentage of plays where he understands what he is supposed to do soon enough that he actually has time to do it.

Absolutely sensible. All I'm saying is that unless he has something like a total meltdown, some kind of serious regression, he's the guy for 2021. If Allen is the same in 2020 as 2019, I think the Bills keep as their 2021 starter. I guess what I'm really saying is that unless Allen is really bad in 2020, his performance in 2020 will really only determine how seriously the Bills start looking for a possible replacement. Allen will still be the presumptive 2021 starter, but he mind find the level of competition for his job going up.

I hope we come up with a solution to this virus thing soon; otherwise, the day after the next Super Bowl there's going to be a lot disease spread on the streets of Buffalo.

I agree, but that's true for every player on the team. A judgment for 2021 and the future will be made after the 2020 season. But that's only the beginning of the discussion. The point is, what does he have to do in 2020 to have a 2021 in Buffalo? The notion of a "prove it" year is that if you don't do it that year, you're done for the future. You didn't prove it, so you're done. I don't think it's a prove it year at all. That is, he could have, statistically something like 2019, maybe a little better, so that maybe he's the 15th best QB in the league. That wouldn't prove anything, it would be a disappointment and it wouldn't be enough, but I'd keep him. A guy like a Trent Murphy is in a "prove it" year, or maybe a Levi Wallace, but not Allen. He's shown too much promise to quit on him after 2020 even if he hasn't had a top-10 QB season.

Of course they're happy with him. That's not what I meant. In Buffalo he wasn't the receiver Bills fans hoped he would be, and he has never performed at that level in the NFL. The Bills drafted him to be a #1 for 8 or 10 years. He's never been a quality #1, let alone for five or more years. But he's perfectly fine for KC, given the other receivers they put on the field. That is, he 's fine as a #2, he's nearly a star a #3.

Watkins and Woods were great in our imaginations, but they never showed they could actually do what we imagined for them. Woods has done it since he left, and the Chiefs are still waiting for Watkins. These three guys all are wearing a Bills uniform today, and all three of them showed last season and in seasons before that they can do what we imagine. That's special.

This is true, but it doesn't make the 2020 season a "prove it" year, which is what this discussion is supposed to be about. Watson made the plays to win the game, and he deserves credit for it. Watson is, in my opinion, one of the league's next great quarterbacks, and he has a year's experience on Allen, and came out of a better program. So the fact that Watson could do it in his year three doesn't mean that Allen has to do it in his year three. The Bills want Allen to be a top QB in the league for the next ten to 12 or 15 years. Whether he gets there in year three or year five really doesn't matter. What matters is that he get there. For me it's simple. He made good progress his first season, and he made good progress his second season. He needs to keep making good progress. That won't necessarily make him a star in 2020, because he still has a long way to go.

I just had a random reaction and wanted to say somewhere. This thread seemed to be the right place. I was in the thread about whether Johnson could have impact from the edge this year. I was talking about positions where we shouldn't be surprised if some rookie or second year guy might unexpectedly have an impact, like Johnson might on the edge. I ran through the position groups. When I got to receivers, I said that's a position where I wouldn't think it's likely. I said it just doesn't seem likely that anyone is taking playing time from Diggs, Brown, and Beasley. And I did a double take. When was the last time any of us wrote the names of the Bills receivers and in their minds what we see now? Moulds and Price, I suppose. Moulds and Evans. But really, I think you have to go back to Reed, Beebe and Lofton before you find as good a group. We should still be dancing in the streets over that move.

Interesting that you put these two, Johnson and Joseph, together. They each have superior athletic attributes, and they must have superior work ethics, or the Bills wouldn't have picked them or kept them. That tells me to expect a little more out of them than you project. Almost certainly, they both learned a lot last season, and assuming a normal training camp and preseason, I think they'll have a lot of opportunity to show they deserve to be on the field. I've said a few times that, because of the competitive environment that McDermott demands, I expect there will be some surprise young faces getting more playing time than we project right now. There's no way to predict who those young faces will be, but we can speculate. Joseph and Johnson are two of them. Ryan Bates is another. There may be one or two more on the roster, and there will be one or two or three added by the time they go to camp. Draftees, undrafted free agent, maybe someone off a practice squad. There's a reason Johnso, Joseph and Bates are on the roster, and the reason is that they have physical skills that are particularly attractive to McDermott. The question is whether they can be trained up to do the job at the position they play. One or two of those types, from the guys the Bills already have or will acquire in the next couple of months, are going to end up with more playing time than many of us would predict today. For example, i think it's possible all across the offensive line. It's possible at edge, and it's possible at linebacker. Possible in the defensive backfield, but less likely. Certainly possible at running back, for sure. Not likely any diamond-in-the-rough youngster is taking time from Diggs, Brown, and Beasley.

And be a guy who gives you confidence he's going to make the play with two minutes left and the game on the line. Doesn't have to do it every time, but he has to look like he can and not make us wonder what good, bad or weird thing is about to happen.

Outstanding! That's exactly what happened here. McBeane had decided they were ready, they had enough, to go for the championship. They knew they could plug their defensive holes in free agency and they needed a receiver. As free agency approached and it began to look like Diggs could be gotten, they went into action. It was almost surgical, just like how quickly Beane dealt to get Allen and Edmund's. It all days they expect to win now. It also says they are all in on Josh. He is the guy they will do it with. That's how they saw it, and a late round pick or two way not going to stop. None of us cared when the Pegulas overspent to be sure they got the Bills. I dont see why we worry that the Bills overspent on Diggs.

I was agreeing with you, and I agree with this, to. My point was a little different. My point was that, just as you say, he has to improve statistically in a variety of ways, and the data of what's past don't really tell us exactly what he has to do. If he significantly improves his deep ball accuracy, it will have an impact on all of the data your citing. Or, he could stay the same on the long ball, not improve at all, and still improve in the categories you cite. I agree that he has to get better, and I agree that the next step, as you describe it, is a fair estimate of what he needs to do. Nice if he did more, but what you describe is good solid growth. I just think there are a variety of ways he could do it. I also agree that that Allen has a history of improving at parts of his game that have been criticized, so the long ball certainly seems to be an area where we could expect improvement. If he improves in that category, it will carry him most of the way to your targets for him. I continue

Thanks, that's interesting. It's a year old, but it makes it even more interesting, because the Bills had the LEAST continuity of any team last season, and they still did okay. This year they'll have 100% continuity, so it would suggest we should see some real improvement. Interesting stuff.

All pretty subjective stuff, but not a bad narrative of what's happened. All we can do is wait and see. He needs at least another year of solid growth overall. He's gotta start being at least a threat to crack the top 10 passer ratings. He maybe won't get there this year, but he needs solid improvement again. Some of that growth has to be in the deep ball category, because to be a good offense, it's almost essential that you're a deep threat. You need that explosive aspect to the offense. Plus, a lot of other stats start moving up if you get better at the deep ball. Yards per attempt goes up, TDs probably goes up, completion percentage goes up. The criticism of his deep ball efficiency is justified. As you point out, there are plenty of reasons to expect him to improve in that area.

Thanks, but if it there isn't a simple link, that's okay. It's interesting to me that they would have done the math to figure this out.

So what does it mean, that two different data crunchers come up with different answers? I think it means it's all more subjective than can be reduced to data in a very meaningful way. I mean, the data can tell us, relative to the other QBs in the league, how productive he is. But the data can't even tell us whether he progressed or regressed in 2019. We're at the limits of the usefulness of the data. At least at the level of the data that's available to us. I suspect the Bills have some analytics on Josh that would be cool to see but that is closely guarded. They know exactly how well Josh is doing and what he has to do to become more productive.

That's outstanding, Hap. It demonstrates a few things. One is that his overall effectiveness went up nicely. Second that his deep ball effectiveness went up too. The note about preferred location and throwaways in 2018 is interesting. It means in 2019 he was generally throwing the ball way less than his rookie year. That means he was finding guys to throw to. It's a picture of a guy who's improving all over the field. Maybe not caught, but attempted. I think you're correct about that. They're going to be telling Allen, if it's a 50-50 ball to Diggs, we'll take that bet. 50-50 to anyone else, go someplace else, even a throw away.

Is there a link to that study? I didn't find it on the Outsiders. As to the comment about Ford having a better body for guard than tackle, I know nothing about those body mechanics, etc. However, I think it's clear that McBeane's approach is guys who can play multiple positions. That is, athleticism is the key, not body type. In the last few years I'd begun to notice that all of Belichick's offensive linemen were built more or less the same. Solid, tough, athletic, quick (for their size). So Ford's future is more likely to be told but which position he shows he can play best at.

This is the fundamental question, and even this question depends on what we mean by poor deep ball thrower. I think everyone should be able to agree that Allen has not been a productive deep ball thrower. He hasn't been very efficient throwing the deep ball. His completion percentage, his yardage, his ability to hit open deep receivers, collectively have not been good enough. What is or are the causes of his poor production? First, I think that in terms of simply throwing a football, I'd guess that Allen is in the top 10 in the league. That is, if you run something like a pro day, where a QB is standing in an empty stadium on his home field and receivers are running routes against air, I'm guessing Allen will complete that throw like the best in the league. Just throwing, no pressure, no nothing. So I don't think the problem is throwing the deep ball. The problem has to be about other factors, most of which have to do with other aspects of Allen's game. It is true that having receivers who get open and having a line that gives appropriate protection has something to do Allen's effectiveness. However, even those things are things that Allen needs to learn to adjust to. Brady didn't always have good protection and didn't always have good receivers, so he adapted. But even more important than dealing with the receivers and line is seeing the game. If he sees the game, he knows where even mediocre receivers will be open. If he sees the game, he knows when he needs to bail from the pocket early enough to still make the good throw. So if he sees the game as well as he should, he knows his receiver is going to be open and he knows his job is just to get to a place to throw it. Sometimes that means a quick move in the pocket, sometimes it means making an off-balance throw, sometimes it means scramble. In any case, it means he's getting to a place where his superior pure throwing ability gives him great effectiveness. Josh's long-term career objective is to learn to process and make decisions like Brady. Imagine if Brady had been able to throw like Josh. He would have been unbelievable. What do you think Fitzpatrick thinks when he looks at Josh. Fitz thinks, "oh, man, what I could have done with that physical talent!" That's Josh's objective - to understand the game like Brady and Fitzpatrick do. And like Brees does. Right now, Josh is a long way from there, a long, long way. If he's ever going to be a great one, he has to get better every year for several more years. At the end of the day, it's all about how Josh learns and can bring to the field.

This post makes good points. I agree with those who say his stats throwing deep are bad, but it's obvious he can make all the throws. His stats are bad for multiple reasons. One is that he threw deep out of desperation more often than we'd like, like that horrible duck he threw to DiMarco last season. He'd get rushed, scramble, fail to find a better option (which may or may not have been there) and then he'd unload the ball deep. Not necessarily a bad decision, but certainly bad for the stats. Another is that doesn't always get enough air under the ball. He has to learn that. Another is that he needs guys open more often. Diggs should help that. This will be the first season that Allen will be on the field with two legitimate deep threats. So as you say, he has to continue to improve. He needs some better line play, but I think primarily he needs to to be better at pre-snap and post-snap recognition. When Allen understands what he's looking at, when the play is working the way it's supposed to, he throws the ball well, both short and deep. When he doesn't understand completely, he tends to hesitate, to fail to identify the opportunities, and that makes him throw late. When he's late, he's in a hurry, and when he's in a hurry his accuracy declines. He needs to see and understand. If he does that, he'll be fine. If he doesn't, he'll never be much better than we saw last season.

I can. If he agreed he was a backup, he has years of experience in the league to share with Josh. Plus, Josh gets hurt and you have a starter-quality backup for some games.

This is the point I've been making. Three positions got better, and collectively, as a unit, they're a serious threat. OP has an interesting take. I think his assessments are pretty much on the money, may even be a bit cautious on a couple. And there's still the likelihood that someone named in the 22 loses his job to a surprise diamond in the rough.

I think you overestimate what you can get in the draft. It's only the guys at the top of the draft that you can count on to start. You get down to to the bottom of the first and into the second, what you get is guys like Ford - guys with the physical tools but without the experience. There are articles every year about the fact that offensive linemen are the least NFL ready players coming out of the draft. Many of them, and Ford is an example, played in college systems that didn't ask them to do many of things they have to do in the pros. That's why you see so many guys who begin to have success in their third or even fourth season after college. They have a lot to learn, and it isn't easy. So sure, you might find a starting offensive lineman late in the first round or in the second, but it's just as likely that you'll miss, in the sense that the guy won't help you much as a rookie. In the 2020 training camp, a guy like Ford has a huge advantage over that rookie. He has learned a year's worth of stuff that the rookie doesn't know. The smart bet is that Ford will be better in 2020 than any rookie who might fall to the Bills. Maybe not better over the long run, but better in 2020. That mentality is at the core of how McDermott operates. He demands that his players improve from year to year, and he understands that if he does his job, his players WILL improve. That approach means he has to have patience with his young players and not have an itchy trigger finger. So it isn't surprising at all that they're betting on Ford in 2020.

Yes, I would keep them. Swinging and missing on a QB happens to everyone, sooner or later, so if they missed on Allen, I don't think it should be fatal. Twice is a different story. Plus, if Allen misses, it won't be by much. He's pretty good right now, when you roll in his running threat. He's a top 20 quarterback. He's as productive as a guy like Fitzpatrick. That is, he's an average to slightly below average starter. He isn't Ryan Leaf or JP Losman or EJ Manuel. So if Allen never grows beyond where he is right now, I'm not coming down hard on McBeane. But if Allen isn't any better in his third season than he was in his second, McBeane had better be looking hard for an alternative. You have to remember, though, that QB development takes time. Tannehill is a good example. He had his moments in Miami, but generally he just bumbled along as a marginal starter. We didn't always see the growth. Then 2019 happens, and everyone has to reconsider him. If he puts up another season like 2019, this time as the full-time starter, he will have shown once again that it takes time to grow into a real player in that position.

This is absolutely correct. It is problem for young qbs to do it, all around the league, and Allen has to get better at it. He has to master it to be great. And its a bit on Daboll, too, because defenses have gotten better at disguise and taking the hot read away. But mostly it's Allen.