Straight Hucklebuck

Under Allen I just don’t see that the run game has ever been a foundational piece of what they’re trying to do. Against the Bengals, Cook got 6 carries, Murray got 2. Similar attempts against the Jaguars.

I’m not as optimistic. We have nothing at Safety behind Poyer and Hyde, and keeping them together next year is just asking for more injury. I don’t ever want to see Hamlin again. Rapp stinks. Situation is better at corner, but Benford isn’t a playmaker, and White is never going to be the same. So the continuity feels good, but you don’t get much speed or athletic ability out there. Also, Taron Johnson is just kind of assumed to be really good, but he’s been just alright this year. No length either. I’d expect heavy defensive investment next year. Phillips a FA Lawson a FA Epenesa a FA Floyd a FA Joseph a FA No answer along side Bernard. And again projected to be over the cap.

Yeah and in the game day thread, you look at how thin this defensive secondary is with no Hyde, no Benford, Elam on IR and not trusted anyways. You’re our there with Douglas who has been here a week, Dane Jackson and Taron Johnson, a gimpy Jordan Poyer and Taylor Rapp. So it’s just a duct tape unit. Utilize Cook in the pass game more, and like I said, Diggs (72%), Kincaid (88%) and Shakir (95%) are your most efficient players. Have to push the ball there. The other video about the run game is eye opening, and he says it is the #1 reason drives fail. I guess that means minimize it, or run out of simple Pro Set formations.

I do think we’ll take 2 Safeties and a corner next year. Micah is a FA in 2024 with void years. I can’t see him being back. Poyer will be asked to take a pay cut, but isn’t a FA until 2025. Has a cap hit of $7.5M, dead cap of $2M. Tre White is a hard one because of the money. He’ll be asked to restructure. Dane Jackson is a FA next year. Benford will be in Year 3, same with Elam so ok from a contract standpoint. Douglas is here in 2024. So Douglas will be one starter, Taron Johnson will still be here, after that, the secondary is in shambles. Really could use an Elam reclamation project to be successful. Just got too old and too expensive.

It’s almost like some fans have said the static shotgun RPO (where Allen never actually keeps/runs the ball) isn’t working, especially when the Bills try to run outside with the atrocious blocking. Second drive of the Bengals game, the Bills run on 1st down, 2 yards. Get a pass interference, their shotgun run is blown up by DJ Reader for -1 yard, and then it’s pass, pass. So this is where the under center, play action, screen game to Cook conversation comes right back. Static 2x2 shotgun as Orlovsky has said.

I see a different story than you. Allen has produced 40+ TDs the past three seasons. He’s more than good enough to win with. What I see is Buffalo’s lack of investment in speed and skill for him to throw to is catching up to the franchise. Watching the All-22’s, it’s apparent that we are trying to squeeze more blood out of a stone with efficiency and decision making. So Allen is throwing interceptions, and not always taking the underneath routes. But what’s also missing is the playmaking element to this offense. To me, the Bills offense feels like the Chargers. A rocket armed QB, with a #1 WR who is a possession WR, and no speed otherwise. Which means you push the ball to one WR and dump off to running backs. Allen isn’t a tactician like Burrow, not as surgical. But he is an absolute playmaker and is smart enough to play that high efficiency style. The Bengals can lean on a Top 8 defense, they can lean on the overall #5 and #32 pick and Boyd. Allen has to say screw it, run more, and pump as many targets as he can to Diggs, Kincaid and Shakir.

They want you to pay for some generic commentary by a common fan. How about just watch a free JT O’Sullivan tape breakdown, Kurt Warner, or just read this message board and get useable information?

By this metric there is Mahomes and then a gigantic drop off to everyone else. Nobody is good enough - starts with Burrow, who game by game in the Playoffs hasn’t been some dominant force - gets by on the back of a good defense, Herbert is 0-1 in the Playoffs, Lawrence has 1 Playoff win, Tua hasn’t been there, Rodgers is 12-10 in the Playoffs, Lamar is 1-3 in the Playoffs, Russ peaked years ago, so who?

THANKS TIM 👏 No Bills fans have a TV or the internet to see any of these things. But really thankful we have you Tim to write these great articles that say a whole lot of nothing. 👍

I'm up for it. I think the Bills have to try some things to shake some playmaking out of the offense. They have a lot of efficiency, but without the explosives, how can you squeeze more out of what you have? Great conversation man!

I do like the Crucial Catch gear.

It would be schematic shift from both the way Daboll and Dorsey have employed Davis to shorten his split to the OT (and then possibly have someone - probably Sherfield?) play the X. I've never seen much of our coordinators choosing to put Gabe anywhere but outside. Even in a 4 wide arrangement.

Tampa certainly looks like an outlier. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/D/DaviGa01/gamelog/ Gabe's played 56 games has a total of 267 career targets. That's 4.77 targets per game. Career catch rate is 55.8%. 9 catches on 12 targets. The 12 targets is the second most in his regular season career and he's only had 10 or more targets 4 times in his career. The 9 receptions is the most in his career (6 was he previous high). So with this Coaching Staff I'm not surprised that we see something that works, and then it disappears the next game and you'll only get "game flow" and trying to mix it up as reasons why from Dorsey.

1. We're in agreement that there is a general lack of size and speed across the full roster of Bills receivers. And Orlovsky has said the lasting image of the Bills offense is a static 2 x 2 shotgun. Against the Bengals we ran 12% play action. Since we're not going to utilize motion, and there is no real running threat in our RPO because Allen doesn't/isn't allowed to keep the ball, what is another lever in the quick passing game to buy a half second of hesitation inside? 2. Kincaid's longest catch on the year is 22 yards. So if he's catching deep passes, I've missed it. Doesn't mean he's not running them though, I haven't seen Next Gen charting on Kincaid's routes. Since Week 7, Kincaid has a 76.3% route run rate, a 21% target share, 2.15 YPRR, and a 23% first-read share. So a lot of routes that still require his YAC ability. 3. Yeah, this is squeezing more blood out of the stone. Allen can process better, take the check downs more and play death by 1000 paper cuts more. Progression would be Diggs (already at 10.8 targets per game - maybe get that to 12?), Kincaid (88.9% catch rate), Shakir (95% catch rate) and Cook (85% catch rate).

The only lever being presented is execute better via Allen taking your check downs more. The team seemingly doesn't want to use play action more, hurry up, Allen designed runs, modern motion concepts. That stuff comes and goes and both McDermott and Dorsey talk about always changing it up. Outside of Kincaid expanding his route tree, or Allen pushing even more targets to Diggs, what other real practical buttons does this team have to push that will increase scoring? A lot of it is going to come back on Allen to make even better decisions, increase his completion percentage from 71% to 75%, not turn the ball over at all, and try to squeeze/save an extra scoring drive out per game. Throws must come out quick, and close to the LOS to mitigate an average Offensive Line and an average run game.

Your WR investment: 2019 Cole Beasley, John Brown are FAs. Brown is 29. Beasley is 30. No WRs Drafted 2020 Diggs is de-facto 1st Rounder Gabe is a 4th rounder. Hodgins is a 6th rounder. 2021 Emmanuel Sanders at FA. 34 years old. 1 year deal, retires. Marquez Stevenson is a 6th Rounder. 2022 Jamison Crowder is a FA. 29 years old. 1 year deal, leaves team. Shakir is a 5th rounder from 2022. 2023 Trent Sherfield is a FA. 27 years old. 1 year deal. Deonte Harty is a FA. 26 years old. Shorter is a 5th rounder. And we wonder where all the playmaking is.

To me, when you look at the players that are on the field all the time for the Bills, Cook is the next lever that could be pulled for more output in the pass game. He's out there all the time, and his routes are defined. You wouldn't have to manufacture touches for him in the same way you would with Deonte Harty seemingly. Because Harty either runs flat routes or go's. It's been the two attempted long balls (Jets, Bengals) and the successful one against the Jags. Otherwise it's been just dump offs towards the sidelines.

This is where I'm at. Hoof Hearted is talking about running to where the defenders aren't. Who is capable of doing that on this offense? I think Diggs looks as good as he's ever been. I haven't noticed a step loss. He's sudden, he's shifty, he's precise, he catches everything, and has just enough speed (4.45-4.49ish) to get behind people. Maybe the advanced metrics would show that he used to average a bit more separation, somebody posted he's at ~2.65 yards this year. But back to the point, is it any wonder that the Bills select a consensus 1st Rounder and in 6-games he's passed everyone else and is now the #2 option in this offense? I think the All-22, analysis, has shown Allen is turning down the hot reads and check downs sometimes, he's not getting the ball to Cook enough, but even Hoof Hearted and Chris Simms and I just heard Greg Cosell say it as well - this is not a very fast/talented offense. Could Allen have thrown to the middle of the field more and let Harty run away from Awozie on the coverage? Yes. But I do think there is a mismatch in the way our QB wants to play and the personnel they've handed him. I get the point that NFL defenses have really made it harder to get deep since Mahomes exploded onto the scene in 2018, but I'm sorry, there hasn't been much investment at WR in Allen's tenure here. Last year the bottom 5 of the WR room was: Jamison Crowder, Isaiah McKenzie, Jake Kumerow, Cole Beasley, John Brown. I'm mean Allen got 35 TDs out of that group with Diggs, Davis and Knox.

He's mocked Top 5, and I looked at CBS and USA Today and they have us taking a CB and DT. My gosh.

I've thought that. At this rate the Bills might not have to move up for him. But nah in reality, they'd probably have to trade up for him, but that would be a true two Tight End set. Still want a WR.

I'm at the end with Dorsey, and I don't think we'll see anything different Monday. We get a ton of lip service from this Coaching Staff. Dorsey said they are searching to overturn every rock, McDermott said things that are similar.

He got asked after the Tampa Bay game why Cook and Harty are not used more in the pass game, and he gave a generic answer about getting everyone in space. I don't know how you don't try and get Harty the ball 2x a game and see if he can pop one.

Why has Deonte Harty been effectively benched? After his catch against the Patriots.

Kincaid comment was in reference Davis pulling coverage away. His long on the year is 22 yards, it's not like they're bombs away with him. He's catching more of the type of patterns he was in his first game against the Jets. The other comment on the run game is in reference to the Bills being dominated in the run game by the Bengals defensive line. When I watched that game, I felt like they ditched the run early and rightfully so. So when I looked it up, Cook only had 6 carries, and Murray had just the two conversions later in the game. The Bills running backs outgained the Bengals rushing offense including Burrow without any of Allen's carries. So while some plays looked bad, the Bengals stuffing the run was a small part of the actual plays that were run.

Football didn't exist before Gabe Davis' blocking. And apparently now he is a great decoy. 🤷‍♂️ In all seriousness, we've seen Gabe Davis be able to create separation sometimes, he's not always blanketed. But he doesn't uncover quickly, so most times Allen has gone elsewhere with the ball.