Straight Hucklebuck

Cook got 6 runs. Murray got 2 runs. The rest was Allen.

I'm not sitting here thinking a 4th Round WR who ran a 4.54 and had a 3 cone of 7.08 should be a physically dominant player. But when your GM goes out gives a 2-year, $9M deal to Harty and says - he can play outside or inside and he's been given 9 snaps in the last 2 games. Harty shows phone-booth ability on the flat route against New England, showed the same ability on his catch against Miami, why can't he get 2 balls thrown to him a game. Why can't Gabe get 70% of snaps, Harty 30%? The aggregate looks great with Gabe, but 5/9 games this year he's 40 yards and below. Kincaid's long this year is 22 yards, so he's getting more volume, but the routes aren't different.

I think the Bills are already here, maybe by virtue of Knox's injury. Diggs leads the league in targets - 97 - tied with Hill @ 10.78 per game. Chase is the only one who has more on a per-game basis with 11.6 (93 in 8 games). But you look at Kincaid in the last 3 games, and he's virtually caught Davis is targets. Kincaid 26 targets in his last 3 games (45 overall) to Davis who has 19 in his last 3 games (49 overall). Shakir has 14 in the last 3 games. Next step will be to start breaking up Gabe's snap count. Rotate in Harty and Sherfield. I thought the Bills correctly ditched the run early in Cincinnati and didn't use it much until the Kincaid fumble drive when Murray converted two 2nd and shorts.

I think two things on offense: 1. Cook is on the field a lot. It's not a big change to throw him the ball a few more times each game. Whether Josh wants to or disciplined enough or is always searching for something more is another story. 2. I think the Bills need to break up Gabe's snap count. Honestly, he's getting 95% of snaps. You're telling me the entire offense goes belly-up because of his blocking? It's not working anyways, we're scoring 20 ppg in our last 5. So why can't he be put in a rotation with Sherfield and Harty? He can still be the primary outside, but we're a year and half into this Gabe is a full-time starter, and it's just inefficient trying to get him the ball. Allen throws to Diggs and Kincaid because it just works. The other guys it apparently takes PhD level scientists to invent new theoretical math to get them the ball. Its not the same coverage as London, but we saw this in London - Hyde vs Ridley. The QB sees it right away and immediately goes there.

Micah against Boyd on a 3rd-10 playing 15 yards off. How much easier can you make it for Burrow?

I don't mind the idea of bringing in a consultant for the rest of this season. But, I think the right thing is to fire Dorsey after this season and conduct a thorough interview process with several candidates at the end of the season. No in-house, Daboll-stable people from the past.

The lack of investment in WR since Allen has stalled this team out. Any coincidence that the Bills finally take a first round pass catcher and it takes him 6 games before he passes Gabe Davis (in his 4th year now) to be the #2 option in this offense?

Well I'm sure after the season we'll get the usual excuses about the lack of pass rush: 1. Rousseau hurt his foot in Week 4 and was never the same again 2. Von needs 2 years to come back from the ACL 3. First year that Epenesa was really counted on 4. Floyd rolled an ankle in Week 3 and was never the same 5. Ed Oliver rolled an ankle and was never the same 6. The emotional loss of DaQuan Jones was too much to bear

Well since we want to become an offense predicated on checking down now, Diggs is getting his usual volume (I’d argue he needs even more), Kincaid is working underneath, Shakir catches 92% of everything thrown at him, is dumping to Cook more often the next level to be pulled?

Complete with a FA at Left Guard, and a rookie at RG! Don’t worry, Spencer Brown has it all locked down at RT. Honestly, Allen threw for 35 touchdowns last year with: Diggs, Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Dawson Knox and the ghosts of Cole Beasley and John Brown. That is freaking amazing. This year he’s 2nd in TD passes halfway through the season, and has added another 6 on the ground.

Allen is going to want out. Chained to these underneath WRs and this dink and dunk pipe dream. Turk Schonert calling out Dick Jauron’s popgun offense.

Hey Josh, it’s the NFL in 2023, and we want you to be accurate on long balls. And to help you do that we have Stefon Diggs, holdover Gabe Davis, and a 5th rounder who we forgot was even on the team until 3 games ago. And then we brought in some weapons for you: 5’6” 170 pound Deonte Harty Career journeyman Trent Sherfield And a 6’3” 240 pound Tight End without the Brock Bowers wheels. Now get out there sport and make it happen! And if you show us you can do it, we’ll throw in some 33-year old Latavius Murray in the slot for you!

The grand plan is to turn Josh Allen into Trent Edwards. Sounds great 👍🏻

I think this is why there are conflicting conclusions coming from the All-22 reviews: 1. The Cover 1/WGR-led narrative that Dorsey doesn't create "easy button" throws - then you see the All-22 and there is always a check-down available. 2. We are missing chunk plays, but then you watch the All-22 and it's the same concepts over and over (mirrored routes, mesh, shotgun RPO, etc.) with evidence showing that the defense knows what is coming. 3. Allen designed runs have been eliminated. 4. The Bills don't utilize play action nearly as much as the statistics earlier in the year indicated they should. 5. Less 4-wide spread than in the Daboll 2020 + 2021, in favor of 3x1's with tighter spacing. 6. Limited to no modern motion concepts in the offense. 7. The tempo starts to pick up and they move the ball, but then they stop because they want to change it up, or protect the defense. I think the problems in order are: 1. Talent past Diggs (but this is part of a larger problem in the organization where Beane has prioritized roster continuity) 2. Dorsey doesn't bring cutting edge scheme. 3. There is a Personnel to Scheme mismatch to maximize Allen's talent. It feels like the Bills want Allen to be Tom Brady - the past two seasons giving him running backs, Tight Ends, and a ton of shorter slot WRs to throw to when he wants to throw to WRs who win 1 on 1. 4. Allen is not disciplined to fully maximize his fitness, his preparation, and despite being told to constantly checkdown (see Brady/Jim Gray interview) he simply refuses to check down the entire game. He took the Harty deep shot for the same reason as Week 1 against the Jets, the offense is dinking and dunking and floundering and he loses patience and tries to make something happen.

Well, if they watch as much film as they say they do then all the coaches will notice this and get Gabe the ball deep.

Look at Dallas' production though - its the same as us - Lamb by a mile, and then Ferguson is the next most productive player. Think Dallas misses an Amari Cooper caliber WR in these big games? Our talent isn't that bad... Diggs is Top 5 in the league and Allen targets him all the time. Should he target him even more? Kincaid is still be used on underneath routes, but the volume has increased. He looks shifty though. Outside of that .... Davis, is he getting faster? Is he becoming a better route runner? Is he showing anything that he hasn't shown in 2020, 2021 or 2022? Harty - Our coaching staff doesn't trust him, he has 113 yards so far - 12 yards/game. 9 snaps the last two games. Sherfield -Less than 1,000 career receiving yards. Shakir - Took him 1.5 years to earn trust. Knox - Completely invisible this season. Morris/Shorter/Isabella - ?????????

I think Beane has culpability here - the skill personnel here is pedestrian. We get excited about Khalil Shakir because the team has finally recognized after being on the team for a year and a half that he is their best slot option - the bar is so low here. But best case scenario, he's doing what he's doing now - 4/4 - 45 yards. The problem is the Bills ignore the statistics that Allen throws to WRs and have given him running backs and tight ends. Gabe is still the #2, and Allen has journeyman behind him with no depth on the perimeter. I listen to Dorsey's press conferences and this is common theme - always wanting to change it up, never become predictable. But in his search for unpredictability, he just goes to play 9 or 10 in his play sheet and defenses have seen this over and over again. It really is starting to sound like Dick Jauron and Chan Gailey at the end, and now our players are parroting it: "watch the tape and correct mistakes", "can't make any conclusions until I see the tape", "just going with the plays that are called". Allen has his own warts, and he's closer to Brett Favre as a worker than Peyton Manning. Ultimately the Bills want Allen to be Tom Brady, and he's just not going to play patient and mistake free.

I watched it. It's more of the same - for Allen to be "successful" in this offense he needs to take checkdowns the entire game. In a nutshell, that's it. Why? - The standing caveat, outside of Diggs, there isn't another WR on the Bills that threatens the defense. We are out-athleted. - McDermott and Beane have been in Josh's ears relentlessly to not run, to slide, to get out of bounds - he doesn't run anymore. And Dorsey has gone along with this and now doesn't call designed runs either. That lever has been taken away. - Bills ran 12% play action in this game. It works for the Lions, but the Bills are smarter. - McDermott is now actively stopping the hurry up. - Despite all the numbers, we continue to be a static-Shotgun based team. - The Bills don't use modern motion concepts. - And Dorsey - seems like he has 10 plays in his rolodex. The defense shows this, this is the coverage beater. However, as others on the All-22 have shown, the linebackers now aren't going for any of these RPO fakes and DBs (like Patrick Peterson) know our WRs only run a few routes, so everything is being squeezed. - To the point above, Dorsey can't figure out anything to do with Deonte Harty, so McDermott has claimed him for Special Teams, and he'll never get out of that quicksand. - McDermott and Dorsey watch the tape and conclude Gabe is too valuable to take off the field, so you play 10 on 11 every week. If they sign him to an extension they get what they deserve next year and beyond. So where does that leave the Bills? I think two places that we're familiar with: 1. Allen has to target Diggs 15+ times per game. He's the Davante Adams in the 2018-2022 version of the Packers. He's the only elite offensive weapon we have. 2. Coordinators see that the Bills are predictable, have no athletes, aren't threatened deep, so they will force Allen to make 10-12 play drives to score, and Allen being chained into a pop-gun offense will eventually bypass the checkdowns and look for big plays, so he's thrown an interception in 5 straight games now. We already hear every interview that Allen gives he mentions (unprompted) how small Buffalo is, how there isn't anything to do. If Beane can't get him better players to throw to, how long before he asks out?

He's been invisible since Miami. I don't even notice him out there. Joe Marino was upset about the pressure calls from McDermott, but we've seen the extreme other end in both games last year from Frazier - 15 yards off every WR.

Yeah I mean right now you're 9 games in. There isn't much time to start working Harty and Sherfield and Fournette into a more meaningful role. Harty probably only gets onto the field in 4 wide sets anyways. Kincaid is getting more volume, Shakir is catching 92% of what is thrown at him. But it's the same story everywhere else: not enough tempo, not enough play action, not enough Allen running, Gabe Davis no showing. We're running out of time to develop a 2nd pitch.

All you can hope is the Coaches and FO don't get snowed by Gabe's work ethic and they draft their own WR who has some of the traits that work with Allen. Namely some speed and a set of hands. At the end of that game Sherfield was on the field and Gabe wasn't, my hope was that means Gabe got benched. So maybe there is some light at the end of the tunnel that he doesn't have to play all the time.

Funny how people have come around on this. Beginning of 2023 it was outlandish to suggest that Allen could be working harder on his physical fitness, to Allen himself saying he needs to train harder and become more disciplined at 2023 Training Camp, to now 9 games in fans saying he is slowing down. I don't think he's slowing down. I think he doesn't run as much - designed or scramble - and his coaches are all over him to not run - let alone the constant media saying he is going to hurt himself and become Newton.

We could do the Buffalo Sabres thing and trade him (Eichel/O'Reilly), and then watch him win a Championship immediately.

I think the Chiefs are showing that talent matters. They're at 23.1 ppg with Mahomes telling Peter King that they will get the offense figured out. The Bills are at 20 ppg London onwards. They'd be right in there with one more TD per game. How can they extract one more TD per game out of what they have? Earlier in the year: it was more under Center more motion more play action more Allen running

Until I see something different, I'd say target Diggs 20 times a game. I don't know how else this team is going to score again.