Logic

At this point in the offseason and given where the Bills WR depth chart is/was....I like the signing of MVS. The WR corps is still not where I'd like it to be, I'd still rather they had taken a WR in the 3rd and spent the MVS money on a free agent DT (rather than the other way around), and I still feel they didn't do enough on offense this offseason. All of that being said, and with me having cried over spilt milk enough already...I think MVS will help this team. He has a skillset that this WR corps was lacking. As pointed out in a Tweet above, while he does struggle with drops at times, he also makes big catches in big moments. See: vs Bills, vs Ravens, vs 49ers in the playoffs this year. I'm just irritated because it has constantly felt like we're a step (or two) behind the Chiefs lately, and this just continues that trend. Two years ago, they decided to get cheaper and younger, shipped off a highly paid WR1, and said "we'll get by on scraps and young guys". They drafted a WR in round two, signed a mid-tier WR and some bargain bin guys in FA, and proceeded to have one of their worst offensive outputs of the Mahomes era. They then had to spend the next two offseasons signing and drafting MORE wide receivers because they realized that, even with Mahomes at QB and Reid at OC, they needed more offensive weaponry in the 2024 NFL. We're where they were two seasons ago. We're at the "we'll just get a pile of different matchup guys and trust the QB and OC to make it work!" part of the story arc. I predict that the offensive output will take just as much of a dip as theirs did, and that we, too, will spend the next two offseasons trying to dig out of it. Hopefully, our tight end and defense step up the way theirs did to allow us to win even though our offense is, predictably, sagging. It would just be nice to feel like we're setting the trends, or zigging when others are zagging. That we're learning from others' mistakes, blazing our own trail, and being the team that OTHER teams want to copy. Instead, it just feels like we're doing whatever the Chiefs are doing, but two seasons later. I hate it.

MVS has 1,500 more career receiving yards and 6 more TDs than Hollins in the same amount of seasons. MVS has also made a few big plays in the playoffs en route to KC Super Bowl runs, whereas Hollins has really never done anything notable on a big stage. I'll grant you that Claypool's most productive seasons were better than MVS's, but he's three years removed from those now, as his career has taken a STEEP decline, and he was a Bills signing away from playing in Canada. Cephus and Hamler have no argument. To be honest, though, the fact that we're sitting here arguing the comparative merits of MVS, Chase Claypool, and Quintez freaking Cephus is pretty emblematic of what kind of offseason it's been for the Bills in terms of getting Josh Allen any viable weaponry at receiver.

Beane already maxed out the company credit card paying for the last few Ferraris, so jalopies are about all he can afford right now. Please check back next offseason. In the meantime, the Bills will ride the jalopies as far as they'll go before breaking down (the Divisional round, if recent history holds).

Cephus's career best single season yardage is 349. KJ Hamler's is 381. MVS's is 687. MVS has posted 3,155 yards and 16 TDs in his career. Cephus and Hamler COMBINED have posted 1,188 yards and 7 TDs in their careers. So if we're talking production over potential, then yes, I'd say MVS is better than Cephus and Hamler. If you want to argue that those two guys have untapped potential, I won't argue with you, but based on their careers to date, MVS has absolutely been the superior player.

Nothing in Shakir's history shows that he can be a consistent and capable deep threat. Could he become one? Sure, but he's never been one in college or so far in the pros. There's more to downfield ability than a 40 time. Shakir's career yards per reception and aDOT at Boise State were not consistent with someone who is a reliable deep threat. Nothing he's shown in his time so far with the Bills indicates that much has changed in that regard. As for Samuel, again, he simply has not shown to be a reliable deep threat in his career. Can he do it now and again? Sure, but that's not his bread and butter. Again, there's more to consistent downfield ability than just a 40 time. Coleman is a rookie, so again he goes in the "MAYBE he can do it" pile, along with Hamler and Shakir. But in terms of guys who have PROVEN they can be consistent downfield threats at the NFL level? The Bills don't have any on the roster.

I wouldn't classify this as a deep ball, nor would I classify Khalil Shakir as a field stretcher or downfield threat. Curtis Samuel's strength is in RAC ability, too, not so much downfield stuff. And Coleman is an unproven rookie, so we don't know WHAT kind of downfield ability he might offer. As of this moment, I'd say we have to unproven POTENTIAL field stretchers: KJ Hamler and Keon Coleman. The former can't stay healthy, and the latter has never taken a snap in the NFL and can't run by corners on a go route.

He's better than Quintez Cephus, KJ Hamler, Mack Hollins, and probably Chase Claypool. His career production relative to theirs makes this indisputable. He also provides a downfield threat that the Bills currently lack. Given what it will likely cost to sign him, I'd be fine with this. It would materially improve and diversify the Bills' WR corps. Not as much as we'd all like, of course, but the salary cap is the salary cap.

Between his injury, Kincaid being integrated into the offense, and the change in OCs, I'm willing to give Knox the benefit of the doubt a bit, especially after he had put up back to back 500+ yard seasons. His average receiving yardage over his five year career, including last year, is 393 yards per season. If you take out last season, which seemed like a bit of an anomaly, you get 445 yards per season. So split the difference between those and you get about 420 yards. I think that, say, 300-400 yards and 5 TDs as the TE2 would be a reasonable expectation, and one that would certainly help the offense. Yes, Kincaid will eat into his targets and production, but then again, a lot of targets were vacated by Diggs and Davis, so it probably evens out. I will leave it for other people to debate whether 300-400 yards and 5 TDs, quality blocking, and valuable depth are worth the money Knox is getting paid. I'm not really interested in that discussion. It's not my money, the guy already took a paycut, and the Bills are allocating relatively little to the position overall in 2024.

With the dearth of quality receivers on this roster, I sure hope the answer to the question of "what will happen with Knox?" is "he'll play a lot and be a productive target for Josh Allen". To quote the inimitable Brandon Beane: "Let's don't forget we can throw it to tight ends and running backs, too".

Oh. See, for me, that's the only redeeming quality of the matchup. Do I want to look at Andy Reid's walrus mustache? Pat Mahomes' dumb brother? Tony Romo? A bunch of Chiefs fans chopping at the air like a racist cartoon? No. No I do not. I should BE so lucky as to be shown a beautiful smiling pop star instead.

I'll be rooting for a 0-0 tie and a lackluster food catering service for both teams.

Thanks for that post. From the perspective of the scouting report "strengths" and "weaknesses" and the overall comparison of their physical traits, I definitely see where you're coming from. The one thing I'd caution with that comparison is that Mike Evans was A LOT more productive in college. Mike Evans posted 1,105 yards and 5 TDs as a freshman (!), then followed it up with 1,394 yards and 12 TDs as a sophomore. Coleman, meanwhile, posted 50 yards and 1 TD as a freshman, then followed it up with 798 yards and 7 TDs as a sophomore. He never topped 798 yards in a college season. So a big part of the thing that makes me nervous about Coleman is that he never really proved he could be truly dominant at the college level. It's hard, therefore, for me to predict that he'll be able to do it in the pros, where the level of competition goes up significantly. Evans, meanwhile, dominated his entire college career. Obviously, the job of NFL scouts is to find projectable traits and to look into the future a bit. Also, clearly, Beane and his crew feel confident in their ability to take physically gifted guys with limited college production and coach them up. Josh Allen says hi. Still...given Coleman's relative lack of college production, it's hard for me to bite particularly hard on that comparison.

Some people just like to be up on the cross, bitchin and a'moanin', no matter what.

The technology being used to upscale old videos these days is pretty cool. That's why this video looks so clear. I've seen some old concert footage from the 60s and 70s put through the same kind of process, and it comes out looking remarkably good. Kind of boggles the mind to think that you can actually improve the visuals of an already-filmed thing from 40+ years ago. Like...how do you just MAKE something be higher definition? It's wild.

He already did.

I believe the Bills are the first team to hire a former NFL official in this capacity. Interesting. Maybe it'll start a trend.

Sure, but it also seemed reasonable to suspect that Beane was going to use his bevy of 2024 draft picks to move up the board a few times, and it didn't happen. In fact, I'd say most would've agreed that it seemed MORE likely that Beane would use those extra picks to trade up than it was that he'd stand pat and use all the picks, but stand pat he did. It's possible Beane just acquired the 2025 picks because he sees that the team needs to get younger and cheaper, and draft picks are the best way to do that. It's possible that it's just that simple, and that the thought "I'll use these as trade ammunition!" is not part of his thinking.

The crazy thing is that it seemed like everyone was in agreement at the end of last season that the Bills needed to put more weapons around Josh Allen. Fans, play-by-play guys, analysts, Bills beat reporters, national reporters, everyone. We could all see that "Josh is asked to do too much" had been an ongoing problem for two seasons. Even those of us who were slowest and most hesitant to reach this conclusion (a group in which I somewhat include myself) could finally see and agree with what seemed obvious: the Bills needed to get better at WR and surround Josh Allen with more talent. And then what happened? Diggs got traded, Davis walked, and the Bills did nothing but add an average wide receiver and a bunch of also-ran JAGs in free agency and draft a guy in round two. That's it. They didn't double down on receiver in a loaded class, they didn't trade for one of the many veterans available, they didn't trade up for a slam dunk WR1 type. And at the end of the day, they appear to be entering 2024 with LESS talent around Josh Allen. They not only didn't IMPROVE the talent level around him, they actively got WORSE! And yet somehow, invariably, many Bills fans seem okay with it. They seem to have developed amnesia about the conclusion (Josh needs weapons) with which we all agreed when the offseason began. They seem pathologically unwilling and/or unable to admit that the Bills seem to ONCE AGAIN be planning to ask Josh to carry the team on his back with a below average WR corps. It is deja vu all over again. It's like this front office never learns. It's absolutely maddening.

Since...always? I'm not talking about what I would LIKE to see happen. I've already state 7 billion times I want another receiver. I'm talking about what I think WILL happen. Beane's a pretty honest guy. If a trade was realistically on the table, he'd give his usual vague "look, I won't rule anything out, if it improves the Bills, I'll do it". But he didn't even say THAT. He said "there is no trade for a receiver coming" and "we're happy with the WR room, we feel we're in good shape there". I know that when things Beane says don't match with what people WANT to see happen, the first reaction is to say "It's a smokescreen! GMs lie!", but...Beane has proven to be a pretty honest, pretty straight shooting guy. The reason we all have a lingering feeling of wanting the Bills to trade for a WR is because we can see that they haven't done enough at the position. Unfortunately, I don't think they agree, and I don't think it's gonna happen. I'll be thrilled to be wrong, but I doubt I am.

To be fair...I wanted Franklin or Baker (or literally any other receiver) over a depth DT, too....but I still don't see where a John McCargo comparison comes into play for DeWayne Carter.

In the sense that they both play defensive tackle, sure. In every other conceivable way....not so much. May I ask what it is about him that reminds you of John McCargo? I'm very curious.

Except for Beane saying "there is no trade for a receiver forthcoming" and "We like our room. We're in good shape there". They drafted a wide receiver, signed five of them, then added two more in UDFA. To me, all signs point to them being done adding to the WR unit for 2024.

Yep. Adding a viable number one would make the whole WR corps look much better. Coleman looks more capable of being a quality WR2 than he does of being THE GUY. Shakir looks to be a viable slot WR and third option. Samuel would be an amazing WR4, move player, and depth at all three of the top spots. Mack Hollins WR5 and primarily special teams. The WR corps is actually set up quite well to be the supporting unit to a legitimate WR1 -- the Bills just don't appear to have one on the roster.

The issue with is that I think the Bills went young and cheap at WR on purpose. I'm not so sure they're eager to turn around and hand out the type of contract that an Aiyuk or Metcalf will command. Furthermore, I don't think the 49ers will actually move Aiyuk, or that the Seahawks will actually move Metcalf. I find it much more likely that those teams move Samuel and Lockett, respectively, and then re-sign the younger guys. A cheaper veteran stopgap like Lockett or Hopkins seem more likely for me as something the Bills would pursue. Ultimately, I don't think a bigger WR investment will come until NEXT offseason, at which time I can see them being more willing (and able) to pay up for a dynamic WR or two.

If the compensation required is not too high, I'd say DeAndre Hopkins. He can be the immediate starting X, allowing Coleman to work in more gradually without needing to be THE GUY from day one. It would also allow Coleman to play more of the move/big slot position that he seems better suited for. You can still bring Coleman along at X behind Hopkins, but also still get him on the field in other ways. Hopkins would be an excellent example for Coleman to learn from, in terms of how to win in the NFL as a bigger bodied guy without elite speed. That said, my top choice would still be "buy a time machine, go back and trade for Diontae Johnson or Jerry Jeudy, and/or go back to the draft, and take Franklin, Walker, Baker, or Washington in the middle rounds". Time machine preference not withstanding, the Bills still need help at WR.