Logic

Ken Dorsey: "Josh Allen texted me 'you're the guy I want!'"

Just to add to my previous post about the YPRR thing. This goes back to 2015. 1,000 yard season producers in the NFL are highlighted in bold. A little scary, no? (also, Hi Justin Shorter, we see you)

I mean...I see at least a LITTLE reason to sweat it. It's not just one thing, ya know? Coleman's actual college statistics, his YPRR, his Reception Perception graphic from Matt Harmon...it's a pile of things. Of course there are always outliers. The thread in the Tweet I just posted mentions that DK Metcalf and Terry McLaurin didn't clear the 2.0 YPRR threshold either, and obviously both guys are good NFL players. So it's not a guarantee, by any means. People beat the odds. Still, to completely disregard this stuff when it's actually a pretty decent sample size over several years strikes me as fingers in your ears, "la la la I can't hear you" kind of thinking. Those of us that didn't love Coleman as a prospect have just as much and as valid a set of reasons for reaching that conclusion as the people who look at the same prospect and feel optimistic that he'll succeed. He's a Bill now, so I will obviously be rooting for him. He's a very likeable guy, and the Bills NEED him to be good. But I'm not going to suddenly pretend I loved the pick. That would be dishonest of me.

I'm sure this is fine....

Give me Chark or Boyd or OBJ (as long as any of them are on a reasonable contract) after June 1st and I'm good to go. The WR corps needs one more legitimate guy (Cephus doesn't do it for me). Accomplish that and let's roll.

This is it in a nutshell for me. I'm a big "film over everything else" guy. So honestly, the 40 time doesn't bother me one bit. The gauntlet drill is nice, the next gen tracking is nice, all of that stuff is encouraging. But when you put on the tape of Coleman in college, it shows A LOT of him being blanketed by college corners. There are times when he's completely well covered by guys on Syracuse or Duke or Pitt. And if he's not getting separation against them, why should I presume he's going to get it against Jalen Ramsey, LaJarius Sneed, or Sauce Gardner? Yes, his route running should improve with pro coaching. And yes, his body should continue to grow and mature, and maybe that will unlock some new improvement. But it's not unreasonable to be concerned that a guy who didn't get great separation in college may not just SUDDENLY learn how to get it in the pros, when the level of cornerback talent goes up a million percent.

Amen. Even if the Bills do FINALLY decide that 2025 is the year they're going to seriously invest in some offensive weaponry in the draft, then we'll hear "well, rookie WRs are slow to adapt to the NFL. 2026 is the year we should really be ready to dominate!". The can keeps getting kicked. It's always "next year" that we'll address these deficiencies once and for all. There will never stop being defensive depth needs and special teams needs. Until this team decides that they're going to prioritize using premium capital on offense ANYWAY, I fear we'll keep getting to January and having to count on guys like Trent Sherfield, Mack Hollins, and the ghosts of John Brown or Cole Beasley.

Us Bills fans got to go from a decade of Brady/Gronk dominance straight to a decade of Mahomes/Kelce dominance. We're so lucky.

I'm so confused. Didn't you already post this an hour ago?

Taylor Swift is just like Stevie Nicks, but with a jock boyfriend instead of the world record for "most cocaine snorted in a 5 year period".

Her new album is straight fire, Boyst. You're missing out (I don't know what that emoji is supposed to mean, I just like it) 😁

I actually love that part of it. I'd way rather see her beautiful, smiling, joyful face than a shot of Chiefs fans in the crowd or of a grinning Tony Romo or a walrus-mustached Andy Reid. I am not at all amongst the anti-Taylor crowd. Her collective 47 seconds of air time during a 3.5 hour broadcast don't bother me in the least.

I expect a big rebound season from Kelce (you're a pretty awesome player when 984 yards and 5 TDs marks a "down year" for you, btw). Hollywood and Worthy are gonna open a lottt of things up for Kelce in the middle of the field. I also think that whatever injury and romance distraction nonsense happened last season will likely be in the past. He is and will continue to be the de facto number 1 pass catcher in KC for the foreseeable future.

Does this just replace the old deal he was already on, meaning he's tied to the Chiefs through 2025, or does it tack on two NEW years, meaning he's tied to the Chiefs through 2027?

I haven't crucified anyone. I'm a fan of Brandon Beane's, and I could make a big, long post talking about all the great things he's done here. I'm glad he's the GM of the Bills and, for the time being, I'm glad he's gonna continue to be the GM of the Buffalo Bills. There's a culture around sports teams sometimes that if you question or criticize ANYTHING a GM or coach does, you must be some kind of "hater". I am very clearly NOT that. I'm one of the most optimistic Bills fans you'll ever meet, and I like both our GM and our head coach. It's okay to have differences of opinion with some of the moves that a general manager makes. It doesn't mean it's a crucifixion. As for the second bolded line: Again, that's my argument. He's done just about everything else -- short of bringing in much elite talent the past five years -- that you could ask for. That's my whole point. Brandon Beane does literally everything OTHER than draft difference makers for this team. That's why I continue to believe he's a very good GM, and that's also why I believe it will continue to be hard to get over the hump and win a title. He's got to find a way to bring another elite player or two. If he doesn't, I foresee many divisional round playoff exits to come.

Nope. Not interested. For one thing, we already filled the "Move WR who can line up at running back" role with a cheaper, faster Samuel. We don't need two of those types of players. His skillset would be redundant with Curtis Samuel. For another, I'm not interested in committing the money to Deebo Samuel that he would likely command. And finally, I don't think he adds the one thing that the Bills WR corps still seems to lack: Speed/explosiveness. It's a no from me, dawg.

A lot of really outstanding replies today. Wow. @MrEpsYtown @BillsVet @Cash @Beck Water et al, Thank you all. Each of you made at least one point, if not several, that I found really interesting and gave me something to chew on. I feel after this latest batch of replies like this thread represents the best of this message board. Lots of really high level discussion. We disagree on some points, but we're doing so in a way that is civil, and the discourse around it hopefully expands each of our viewpoints a little bit and allows us to consider things from a new angle. Great stuff from everyone. Thank you all for taking the time and expounding your thoughts.

As someone who -- as I have stated several times in several threads -- didn't love this draft class and feel that the front office seems to have failed what I viewed as its biggest mission this offseason... I have to say that I don't think this year can "break" McDermott and Beane, in terms of their being fired or on the hot seat or whatever. After jettisoning all the veterans they did and admitting publicly it's a "transition" year, I think that even a regression and even -- though I don't think it'll happen -- missing the playoffs wouldn't result in Beane or McDermott being ousted. I think they're viewing 2025 as the year to complete this re-tooling and TRULY compete for a championship again. The cap space that's opened up, the plethora of draft picks. If the Bills don't make a serious run at a title in 2025, THEN I think whispers about their job security will get very loud.

In the most polite way I can possibly say this...and there's probably NOT a polite way... I was trying to pick between Shakir's wife and Bernard's wife and I just couldn't.

Good. For one thing, Esiason and Simms are basically interchangeable to me. I'm not convinced they're not the same person. If you moved them both around a bunch in front of me like Three Card Monte, and then asked me to identify who was who for $1,000 , I couldn't do it. I'd argue the network barely needed one of them, but certainly didn't need both. Their pre-game show had really begun to feel old, cranky, outdated, and lacking in excitement and personality. If the Bills are getting younger and re-tooling, then by God, CBS can do it too!

I only buy the "drafting late makes it hard to find difference makers" argument to an extent, particularly when Brandon Beane moves around the draft board as much as he does. The Eagles, for instance, always seem to be picking pretty late in the draft, but I would rank their roster as considerably better than Buffalo's, and their drafts as usually superior. As for the middle sentence that I bolded: That's exactly my point. That's what Beane does. His drafts typically get us players that "add to the team's quality of depth and gives us a few starters hopefully". What he has NOT done nearly often enough the past few years, is get anything BEYOND that. Anybody who is among the elite at their position or gets All-Pro votes. Beane is consistently good at getting consistently good players. My contention is that he has not gotten any GREAT ones in the past five years, and we need one or two of those on our roster to have a hope of ever getting past the Chiefs on a consistent basis.

Thanks. I agree that the three players you mentioned from the 2023 draft look good, and that it's too early to definitively state that any of them won't be stars. Cook looks good, too, but seems to be about the 10th best running back in football. Taron Jonson and Ed Oliver are good players, no doubt. But they have a combined zero All-Pro seasons and zero Pro Bowl nods. Johnson made a huge play in the Ravens playoff game in 2020, but in the three years since, neither guys have affected our playoff fortunes much. Even if I grant that Taron Johnson is VERY good, that was still the 2018 draft, and I was asking about the five (now six, actually) drafts since then. Just for the sake of argument, let's assume that Dalton Kincaid and James Cook become perennial Pro Bowlers. That still means that in the five drafts between 2019 and 2023, Beane found two true standout players. And that's if the assumption even comes to fruition. I'm simply saying that he's a guy who consistently has good drafts and drafts good players, but he rarely has GREAT drafts where he drafts GREAT players. As for Coleman's ceiling, it's not exactly an objective reality. It's more of a subjective opinion that differs from person to person. If you believe his ceiling is as an alpha WR1, then I don't begrudge you that opinion. My opinion is that his ceiling is Tee Higgins or Mike Williams.

I ask you, since you eyeroll'd my post: In the five drafts since Josh Allen became a Buffalo Bill, can you identify any difference makers or All-Pros that Brandon Beane has drafted? I don't mean good players that start NFL games. I already conceded that he does a nice job at finding those. I'm talking elite players. Difference makers. Can you name any? Mind you: I like Brandon Beane, have always defended him, and don't want him fired or anything like that. I'm happy with him as GM of the Buffalo Bills. But that doesn't mean I can't identify things that seem like problems to me (like failure to draft difference makers) or level fair critiques. And his inability to draft difference makers, to me, has been disappointing, and merits discussion.

Promising of what, exactly? If it's promise of making the roster and getting playing time and contributing on some level, then I agree. If it's promise of becoming an elite player, I don't see much of that in this class. I very much hope to be proven wrong, but Keon Coleman looks to me like his ceiling is as a high end WR2. Maybe Cole Bishop becomes a playmaking safety. Maybe Soloman is a steal at Edge and becomes a sack master. But when I look at Ray Davis, DeWayne Carter, a center, a couple project tackles, a special teams linebacker, and an undersized punt returner, I see what look like fine-to-good, sort of replacement level players. I see more of what Beane has done in the past: solid drafts that produce rosterable players, but no difference makers. He arguably hasn't found a difference maker in the draft since Josh Allen. Lots of good, steady, NFL caliber players. Few stars. The norm for drafts under Brandon Beane (ever since the Allen/Edmunds draft) has become "solid to good, but never great". No home runs. No All-Pros. No REAL difference makers. Right now, this draft just looks like the latest chapter in that book.

You pretty much said in one sentence what I tried to get across in my long OP. "I'm not excited about it, but it looks solid". I think that's also the answer to your question that preceded it. Given how important this draft class was and how many picks the Bills had, not to mention the opportunity they had for a sort of "soft reset", I hoped they'd swing for the fences a little more. I would've been okay with them drafting less players overall, but picking higher on a few occasions. I realize they picked late in the rounds, but I don't think that needs to be so prohibitive when you have the capital and creativity to move around the board. The Eagles also picked late, for instance, and I felt they had a really dynamite draft. Ultimately, I wanted this to be a "let's really focus on surrounding Josh with talent" draft or a "let's try to find a future star or two" draft, even if it meant taking some risks with current and future capital. Instead, it seems like they felt it was more of a foundational, "setting the table" sort of draft to re-stock the cupboards with things like defensive depth and special teams assets. Solid, but not exciting.