Logic

Agreed. I would rather just re-sign Shaq Lawson, who is exactly what you just described, but who already has 4 years of seasoning and who we already know fits in well with the locker room. It would be completely illogical to me to let Lawson walk and then draft Epenesa. Spinning our wheels.

It’s a tie. Both from the games you’d probably expect : Watching CBS get a turkey leg specifically because Josh Allen said he always dreamed of eating one after a Turkey Day win, then watching him and Tre eat it on the field IN DALLAS...priceless. Josh’s 3rd down TD throw to Tyler Kroft in Pittsburgh. That was a big boy play in a big boy moment.

This was my first response to you. REALLY "condescending" stuff ?

Gotta love a guy who posts something on a MESSAGE BOARD, and then gets irate at and/or insults anyone who dares to disagree or post counterpoints. Perfect discourse.

Ever heard the phrase "past performance is not indicative of future results"? To state that what Beane has down in TWO drafts indicates what he's going to do in this draft -- or that anyone who offers an alternative strategy that doesn't match up with what Beane has done in his two previous drafts is being unrealistic -- is an over-simplified and logically inadequate line of thinking. I'm not arguing just to argue. I'm arguing because you posted a thread positing a draft strategy, I replied positing a different strategy, you told me it stinks and backed up that claim with in illogical line of reasoning, REFUSED to read, digest, or consider my explanation for my alternative strategy, and then accused ME of being overly argumentative! If you didn't want anyone to comment on or potentially disagree with your thread, why did you even post it? What's the point of a message board if not to interact? Are only replies that AGREE with your original post allowed? Sheesh.

Yep. You got me again. Two whole drafts worth of history is TOTALLY enough to support your conclusion that Beane will never, ever trade down. Nailed it.

No, I say it because you routinely ignored everything I said throughout the thread and repeatedly replied in a way that made it clear you probably weren't even reading what I was typing. And to be fair, I believe it was YOU who told me my strategy "stinks because it's unrealistic". What's good for the goose...

Talking to you is like talking to a wall. You have clearly not understood or digested a single thing I've said. Enjoy your thread about your much more "realistic" scenario of the Bills giving up a future 1st round to trade up for a wide receiver in a stacked wide receiver draft, all because "they could win the division".

Right. Because Beane has shown himself to be SUCH a smokescreen user, and not a tell-it-to-you-straight kind of guy. I'm sure you can provide TONS of examples of this. I think you nailed it. He's just hoodwinking us all, and in reality he's gonna trade away a ton of assets (including future draft picks) and only end up picking three players this year and not have a 1st round pick next year because, hey, WE COULD WIN THE DIVISION!

Have you even bothered reading my posts above? I JUST said that this is what I would do, not what I think Beane will do. It's what I WISH he would do, not what I'm predicting he will do. Furthermore, Beane has not yet had a draft where he picked in the 20s. I'm arguing that smart teams who routinely pick in the 20s, like the aforementioned Seahawks and Patriots, often use the strategy I'm espousing. It's smart business if you find yourself in a draft where the 1st round prospects only number 15-20 and you pick later than that. Why pick someone you have ranked as a 2nd round prospect at pick 22 when you can trade down into the ACTUAL 2nd round, get more picks, and get better value? Besides, you AGAIN still seem to be missing the point when you say "Beane is not gonna trade down or sit tight and watch players he loves keep getting snatched up". The strategy I'm arguing for literally gives Beane MORE ammunition to trade up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds to target specific players. The only difference is he's trading up in the 2nd and 3rd rounds rather than the 1st round because, again, the value maybe makes more sense in those rounds. Lastly, are you just conveniently ignoring Beane's recent comments that he doesn't believe the Bills are just "a player or two away". He JUST said that. Now you're arguing that he's gonna trade up in the draft to get one impact player? I'd say that your strategy is more out of touch with where the Bills are as a team and with Beane's own recent comments than mine. If you don't believe me, go take a poll of Bills fans and analysts. Would they rather have five players in rounds two and three in this year's draft, or one impact player in round one and then not pick again until the 4th round. I'm pretty confident in what the response would be.

You're not understanding one basic concept: Trading down out of the first round doesn't mean you keep all the picks you accumulate. You can trade down and accumulate some extra 2nd and 3rd round picks, then use the later round picks you have to package WITH those picks to move around the 2nd and 3rd rounds. So you could come out of the second day of the draft with, say, 5 players. Then you'd have almost no late round picks left to use. So in this scenario, I'm arguing that the 5 players taken in rounds 2 and 3 have a BETTER chance of making the roster than just keeping your late round picks.

Don't get me wrong: I don't think he'll trade down. I just wish he would. I'm almost never a "trade down as much as you can!" guy. This year, however, due to the depth of the wide receiver class and the fact that I don't expect any 1st round worthy WRs to be left when the Bills pick, I wish they had multiple 2nd and 3rd round picks. That way, they could get multiple cracks at the next tier of WRs at an area where their value makes more sense. Again: This is what I would do, not what I think Beane will do.

2019 draft: Here are some 1st round players taken after pick 20: Montez Sweat LJ Collier Jonathan Abram Jerry Tillery N'Keal Harry Now here are some 2nd round players of note: Deebo Samuel DK Metcalf Dalton Risner AJ Brown Juan Thornhill Tell me you wouldn't rather have the five players taken in round 2 than the five players taken after pick 20 in round 1. And JUST accumulating extra picks is how a rebuilding team operates. Moving back, accumulating extra picks, and then packaging those with other late round picks to move around strategically is not. The Seahawks and Patriots do this type of stuff all the time, and they've both been consistently good for years. Long story long: I disagree with your contention.

I agree that he will trade up at some point in the draft, but why can't he do it AFTER he has traded down? I'd like to see him trade down twice, and then use his abundance of middle round picks to trade up to target specific players that he covets. Example: Trade down twice, obtain an extra 2nd and two extra 3rds. Package 4th-6th round picks with those day two picks to move around strategically and get guys he likes in the 2nd and 3rd round. In the end, he could potentially pick three 2nd round players and a 3rd round player, for instance. Those four players would have a much better chance at making this roster than anyone picked from round five onward. I know we've only seen Beane trade UP thus far, but it would be nice to see him show that he is adept at trading DOWN, too. It's all about maximizing value. Like I said before, picking in the 20s in a draft that might only have 15-20 1st round rated prospects isn't a great proposition. The difference between pick 22 and pick 35 or 39 or whatever doesn't seem huge to me.

I'd honestly rather see them trade DOWN in the 1st round, possibly even out of the 1st round altogether. It seems like the Seahawks -- and other teams that routinely pick in the 20s -- do this a lot. Trade down a few times, even out of the 1st round completely, and accumulate extra 2nd and 3rd round picks. The thing is, oftentimes in the draft there are only 15-20 prospects that teams grade as legitimate 1st round value. If that's the case, there's not much difference between having pick 22 and pick 35, other than the fifth year option on contracts. If the Bills could trade down twice and accumulate an extra 2nd and a couple 3rd round picks, I'd rather do that. Two 2nds Three 3rds They could then use their later round picks and the above mentioned picks to move around and select players they target in the 2nd through 4th rounds. That, to me, is where the value of this draft lies.

Man...I picked a bad time to let my subscription to The Athletic lapse.

The one thing keeping me from thinking they're going to pay big bucks to an edge rusher is Beane saying this offseason not to expect them to be "setting the market" or spending much time in the "deep end of the pool" this free agency period. They spent big on Morse and Lotulelei, sure, but those were gaping needs on a roster that was pretty barren at the time and needed to reach the salary floor to boot. Now that they've begun to build up the core talent through the draft, and given that they have quite a few contracts either up this offseason or coming up the next couple of offseasons, I just don't see them paying the money necessary to get a big time edge rusher. And to add to that...who that's likely to hit the market even IS a big time edge rusher? I don't see the Jags letting Ngaukoue hit the market. I think the Steelers will do all they can to re-sign Dupree. Clowney looks to me like the only "big time" guy that might hit the market, and I just don't see the Bills giving him $22million/year. We shall see in three weeks, I guess.

I don't envision the Bills signing a "big bucks" guy like Clowney or, if he somehow became available, Ngakoue. Instead, I see guys like Mario Addison and Robert Quinn as much more likely options. Quinn had a career resurgence last year with 11.5 sacks. Whatever it was about the scheme switch from Miami to Dallas, it worked. He's 29 years old, which may be "old", but it's not OLD old. I also think that the Bills might take a swing at Dante Fowler or Vic Beasley -- both supremely physically talented former 1st rounders who haven't lived up to expectations. Beane seems to like to take chances on really athletic, former high picks, banking on the notion that the Bills coaches and system can get more production out of them. Fowler, like Quinn, had 11.5 sacks last year. Vic Beasley was no slouch, with 8 sacks last year, which would have led all Bills defenders. His career high year saw him tally 15.5 sacks. Another big question, of course, is whether or not they re-sign Shaq Lawson. In any case, I don't see the Bills getting anyone young or dynamic enough in free agency to "solve" the position, so they'll need to draft a youngster or two either this season or next. If they re-sign Lawson, it probably buys them a year, and then can more meaningfully address the edge position with youth next offseason. When all is said and done, my prediction for the Bills 4-deep depth chart next season is something like Hughes, Lawson, Addison, draftee.

Good post. Matt Miller's "team by team draft nuggets" article today -- though it seemed to be possibly little more than speculation -- did note that Miller has heard that the Bills are in on "big guys" like Bryan Edwards and Donovan Peoples-Jones. They've also spoken with Chase Claypool. Then again, they've talked to just about EVERY WR at the combine, so take everything with a grain of salt. At the end of the day, I expect them to come out of the draft with two wide receivers: a "size guy" as well as a burner or a McKenzie-style gadget player.

I would just like to a take a moment to say the following: Anyone who could honestly look at a simple post stating that the head coach said Buffalo makes you the best version of yourself and a bunch of players agreed and that this is probably a good thing and decide "this is fertile ground for me to talk smack about McDermott" or "let me explain to you why this is a BAD thing" is soooommmee kind of special. That is all. Please carry on now with your craziness. Awards will be given out at the end for the most creative takedowns based on this seemingly small and positive quote.

McKinney is a draft crush of mine in terms of his fit with Buffalo and what I believe he could do in this defense. I know, I know, how original and creative to "crush" on the best safety in the class and an obvious 1st round talent. I think the Cowboys would be silly to pass on him, since they've needed a stud safety for over a decade now. With needs on the D-line and at corner, though, they may go a different direction.

After spending a bunch of time watching NJPW in recent months, it is even more glaringly obvious how clueless and thoughtless the WWE's booking is. Not surprising, since they have aging and increasingly out of touch Vince McMahon and a bunch of TV writers running things. Meanwhile, NJPW clearly plans things out well in advance, with angles and character progression and trajectories that go on for YEARS. It is all clearly well thought out, with thought to both maintaining current stars AND building future stars in a way that doesn't hurt either camp. I mean...it was obvious BEFORE watching NJPW that WWE is a ship without a rudder these days, but now its even MORE obvious. The shame of it all is that the WWE -- between Raw, Smackdown, NXT, and 205 Live or whatever its called these days -- has an INSANE roster of talent. They just don't have ANY idea what to do with them or who they should or shouldn't be giving pushes to. I wish guys like Ricochet, Finn Balor, Drew McIntyre, and even Roman Reigns would break away from WWE and either go back to NJPW or start joining AEW and ignite a new Monday Night Wars style feud of companies. SUCH a waste of talent going in right now. Shame, shame, shame.

Yep. They have a lot of young guys they'll need to pay in the coming few seasons, and they can't keep everyone. Getting a young safety in the fold now would allow them to use more of the three-safety or Buffalo Nickel looks that McDermott likes this season while having him replace Poyer as a full-time safety next season. Or, if they like using him as a roving, jack-of-all-trades player and he succeeds in that role, and if Jaquan Johnson continues to progress, they could just keep him in that roving role. It gives them flexibility. Lastly, I'll say this: McDermott seems to be a safety whisperer. He has been able to get tremendous production out of afterthoughts like Kurt Coleman, Jordan Poyer, and Dean Marlowe. Just imagine what he could do with an actual blue chip safety prospect. I'm picturing game-changing, All-Pro type production. A safety like that can really change the face of a defense and can flip football games. I know it would anger 90% of Bills fans if the team took a safety high, but I'm not in that 90%. Passing and stopping the opposing passer is how you win football games, and a game changing safety is a big way to stop the opposing passer.

The more I look at the needs of teams in front of Buffalo in the 1st round, the more convinced I am that the top three wide receivers, top three-four offensive tackles, and top 2-3 pass rushers will be gone. If this happens, it obviously puts the Bills in a bit of an odd spot. My hope is that they don't force a pick at any of the above mentioned positions if the value isn't there. Luckily, Beane seems to be the type to stick to his board and not reach for positions of need. As such, if the above scenario plays out, we may see the Bills end up taking a player at a position that fans consider less of an immediate need, like cornerback, safety, or linebacker. With mega-bucks about to be handed out to Tre'Davious White, a cheap rookie on the other side for the next 5 years would seem to make sense. Likewise, a Kenneth Murray or Kyle Duggar to maintain/improve the potency of the defense. In such a deep wide receiver draft, we should all be prepared for their 1st round pick to NOT be at that position. Lastly, I'm not usually a "trade down at all costs!" guy, but I would love it if they did so this year. Getting an extra 2nd and 3rd rounder in a year where the WR and RB value seems to lie there would be a wise move.

To me, the cumulative weight of having state-of-the-art facilities, great ownership and front office, great coaching, recent playoff appearances, a potential franchise QB in place, the best fans in the league, and players all over the roster raving about the family culture here....It's huge. Free agents are going to see it. Rookies are going to see it. We're seeing it already with how draft prospects are replying to Bills-related questions at the combine the past few days. This stuff matters.