Logic

The graph illustrates that the Bills aren’t costing themselves by kicking when they should be going for it on 4th down instead. It does NOT illustrate that they are kicking when they should be going for it, which is what the thread title indicates. Basically, the graph measures how good the 4th down decision making for each team is. The Bills are great at it. That’s it. *edit: it’s admittedly a strangely worded and somewhat confusing Tweet.

I’m not really sure what this story is doing on a Buffalo Bills message board. To be fair, it DOES follow Zero’s only known framework for posting here: “THE CHIEFS GOT PATRICK MAHOMES!!!!!!!”. Why do I keep clicking on threads by this strange troll?

I’m not really sure what this thread is positing. Is the OP asking if our best starting three linebackers in a 4-3 set are Milano, Edmunds, and Klein? If so, the answer is yes. Those are and have always been our starting Will, Mike, and Sam LBs. If the question is which one comes out on 3rd down, well...Klein has made that a bit more of a discussion with his great play in recent weeks.

I think a few who have responded are misunderstanding this graph. Basically, it means the Bills’ 4th down decision making — when to kick, when to go for it — is excellent. This absolutely IS an important statistic. It speaks to the evolution and adaptability of coach McDermott, who has often been criticized for game day decision making. This graph — like the Bills becoming one of the pass happiest teams in the league — shows that McDermott has improved in multiple areas, embraces analytics, and is one of the sharpest, most “modern” coaches in the NFL. *edit: to that end, the thread title is maybe slightly misleading?

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/it-s-a-players-game-how-the-bills-success-on-trick-plays-stacks-up-against-the-r As ESPN's Marcel Louis-Jacques pointed out, Cole Beasley's touchdown pass to Gabriel Davis against the Chargers was the fourth touchdown thrown by a Bills non-quarterback (including playoffs) since Daboll joined the team in 2018. That number leads the NFL. According to radar360, only five teams have more than one such score in that span.

If the Bills win the AFC East and wind up as, say, the third seed....I don't know how you can call them a "Dark Horse". Typically, a "Dark Horse" would be someone NO ONE expects to win any playoff games. I'd look to one of the three Wild Card teams. Teams like the Dolphins, Colts, Browns. But hey, I'm just a fool on a message board.

This is one of those games where I throw the records out the window and look at the matchups. The 49ers offense is a bad matchup for the Bills defense.They have unique and successful run schemes. Mostert and Jeff Wilson are back in the lineup. Samuel is a threat on jet sweeps. The key to defensive success for Buffalo is to limit the run and force Nick Mullens to beat them. This, unfortunately, is much, MUCH easier said than done. The 49ers defense, meanwhile is ranked 11th in points allowed. Even with all of their injuries, they're a tough unit, and they just got Richard Sherman back. If the Bills' o-line plays the way they did against the Chargers in pass protection, it will be a long night. Protecting Josh Allen will be paramount to any success they hope to have moving the ball. With Richard Sherman on Stefon Diggs, the Bills will also need Beasley and Davis to step up in the passing game. Lastly, the fact that the game is in prime time and in a neutral location is a bit of a factor, in my opinion. The two COVID-affected games the Bills played previously this year were their worst two performances of the year. I'm not convinced yet that they're adaptable enough as a team to overcome schedule/location alterations or to consistently perform well in national night games. All in all, I see it as a coin flip of a game. FiveThirtyEight agrees, with a 52% win likelihood for the Bills.

Just wanted to give props for the well placed Cumberland Blues lyrics. Well done.

You’re probably right about the amount of touches he gets....but that doesn’t mean he can’t have a big day. We’ve all seen him get a sweep or pop pass or drag and taken them 40 yards.

McKenzie and Beasley will have a big day tomorrow, I predict.

I have to think that the personnel news -- Chargers getting Ekeler and Harris back, Bills losing John Brown -- affected the line.

I was in the stands that day. One of the most painful in-person losses I've ever witnessed. Sure, the game didn't really mean anything, but it was a chance to beat a good Steelers team. It would have been so sweet to shut up all the know-nothing Steelers knuckleheads sitting around is in our section. Alas, I'm glad that experience was at least the catalyst for something positive for Stevie Johnson.

I, too, am curious about this. We'll never know the answer, of course. There's simply no way to say with certainty that Morse would definitely be starting at center this Sunday if Ford wasn't injured.

Haven't read through this entire thread, but just wanted to say this: I'm not ready to give up on Cody Ford or call him a bust. He finally got to play what is most likely his best position this year for the first time as a pro. It came after a weird and truncated offseason, and he only got to do it a few times before he tore his meniscus. I'd like to see what he can do with a full, regular offseason at his new position before I'm ready to declare anything on him. I still think he can be an above average guard.

To be fair, being “connected on LinkedIn” doesn’t mean much.

Honestly, Tomlin deserves Coach of the Year award. TWICE now his team has been screwed over due to COVID, neither time was his team’s fault, and they’re still 10-0.

I always knew we’d see you again, Dunkirk Don.

You want us to believe that Ty Dunne wrote this article as a response to YOU — some random dude on a message board — and that Monos colluded with him by making up a story about Terry Pegula? Forgive me, but it seems FAR more likely that you have paranoid delusions of grandeur.

I'm late to this thread, but I wanted to say this: I think Flores made a poor decision on Sunday. I hate -- absolutely HATE -- when coaches pull young QBs too early or too often. I am of the opinion that it absolutely DOES hinder their development. Flores needed to decide whether he wanted to go for the playoffs this season or get Tua his reps this season. Once he decided, he should have stuck with that choice. Yanking a young QB in a close game, three games into his NFL career, is NOT a good thing to do. How is the kid supposed to grow from the type of adversity he was facing Sunday? How is he supposed to learn to adapt to and overcome defenses like the one he was facing Sunday? I am so, so glad that the Bills didn't pull this crap with Allen. I'm glad they let him learn through his mistakes and are now reaping the benefits. I like Brian Flores a lot, I think he's a great coach, and I think the Dolphins likely have a bright future under him. But the decision to pull Tua was a bad one, and I stand by that.

Good point. I hope that they haven't concluded that Mitch Morse isn't good enough at run blocking to warrant continued status as the starting center. For one thing, the Bills were a top 10 running team last year. What changed? Perhaps it's the injuries/health thing, as you mentioned. For another, it would mean that they probably don't believe in him as the starting center going forward, which would put another giant need on the offseason "to do" list, since I don't view Mongo as the long term answer at center, and he's a free agent anyway. I guess what my long-winded brain is trying to say is this: It seems like it would be best for the Bills if the guy they chose to make the highest paid center in the league was actually good, healthy, in good graces with the coaching staff, and considered to be "the answer" at the position going forward. Any other outcome seems like it would weaken the Bills in both the short and long term.

I agree with this TO AN EXTENT. When a player has a certain amount of respect and stature and is a leader on your team, you don't play the "I'm not gonna comment on whether or not he'll be starting" game with the press. For instance, I doubt McDermott would tell reporters that Allen is "in the mix" to start at QB or that "we'll see" if Stefon Diggs starts at WR. I am hoping against hope that this is nothing more than deception/coyness, as you said, to give the opponent more to prepare for. I can't shake the feeling, though, that there's more to this one.

I'd be willing to bet that front seven players, particularly interior defensive linemen, DO prepare for specific players in the lead-up to a game.

Hmmm. I'm really, really hoping this is just the usual thing of McDermott not wanting to tip his hand, so that the upcoming opponent doesn't know who to prepare for at a given position. If they really, legitimately are thinking about not starting Morse at center, I'll be concerned that something highly unusual and not at all good happened behind the scenes in the OL room. When it was pre bye week, coming off a concussion, I understood holding him out. But now, after the bye, with Morse being fully medically cleared? I just wouldn't understand not starting him. He was highly thought of by everyone on the team, from Beane to McDermott to Allen, and for him to suddenly be anything BUT that would worry me.

I could be wrong about this, but it sure seems to me like the McDermott Bills tend to beat the teams they "should" beat more often than not. I don't remember many (any?) instances of them losing to clearly inferior teams with bad records. This being the case, I'm optimistic about the Chargers game (though I certainly don't think they'll be pushovers) and the rest of the season in general. Of our six remaining games, four are against teams with losing records and will see the Bills favored to win. 4-2 should be good enough to win the division, particularly with the Phins having lost yesterday.