Logic

@BringBackFlutie Johnny K for the win

Thanks for the post. I agree wholeheartedly that McDermott seems to follow the Belichick-esque "we won't be the team we're trying to become until November and December" model of team building. How many years did we see the Pats look mortal, even mediocre, in September, only to be unbeatable in December? As for Josh Allen -- he who will decide just how far this team can go in each of the next 10 seasons or so...A poster on this forum made a great point yesterday (I've already forgotten who it was): The Josh Allen of 2019 was often trying to do too much. He felt like he had to win games by himself, so he forced things a lot of the time. He didn't often look calm and in control, because he felt he had to singlehandedly will the team to victory. In 2020, on the other hand, his motto of "just relax and realize there's quality talent around you now, you don't have to do everything by yourself" paid off handsomely. He was calm, collected, poised, relaxed. He was like a veteran point guard distributing the ball to his playmaking teammates. When he had to make WOW plays, he did, but in between those came a lot of calm ball distribution and in-control decision making. The poster went on to say that if we look at 2021, it started with the national media predicting a Super Bowl trip and MVP candidacy for Allen. It started with him signing a mega contract and running out of the tunnel in Orchard Park to chants of "M-V-P! M-V-P!". Could it be that under the weight of this new attention and these new expectations, that the Josh who feels he has to do it all (in order to live up these new massive expectations) has returned? That the Josh who looked so calm because he realized he just had to do his one eleventh has yet to show his face? Perhaps Josh just has a case of the yips. Perhaps he just needs to take a deep breath and relax. His struggles certainly appear to be more mental than physical -- we all know he's not lacking in the latter category, but he may be struggling in the former at the moment. Perhaps learning to function as The Hunted rather than The Hunter is just a new challenge for Allen -- one which he has never faced in his life before. Perhaps his overcoming that mental hurdle is all that's needed to see him return to elite form.

One of the seven least efficient QBs in the leaguethrough two weeks. He is not in good company. 😳

Not sure if this was already posted in this thread or not, but... I saw it pointed out on Twitter today that Josh Allen had just two games in all of 2020 where he completed less than 60% of his passes. He already has two such games in two outings this season. Just another log for the "it's more than just facing good defenses or o-line problems" fire.

This is since 2018, and has McDermott in 13th place in the "going for it when they should on 4th down" metric. Looking at just 2020, I believe McDermott was top three, although I can't seem to find a graphic to prove it.

Yes, I think he absolutely does. McDermott was one of the most aggressive 4th and 1 coaches in the league last year.

Thanks. Nice, clean way of looking at the present and future. I'll just add one thing: I wish the Bills had kept Daryl Johnson and jettisoned Addison. I understand why they didn't, and I realize that the cap implications of doing so would not have been great. Still, it seemed he was FINALLY starting to make defensive contributions that matched those he was making on special teams. It's tough to choose between the present and the future, and clearly Beane and McDermott think the Bills' Super Bowl window is open RIGHT NOW. I can't argue. Still, it was a bit painful to see Johnson traded away, knowing that Hughes and Addison won't be here next year.

I don't have an answer just yet, but I'd bet my bottom dollar that Erik Turner and the Cover 1 crew will be breaking down the d-line play on Twitter throughout the week. They'll have the usual cut-ups, looping replays, analysis, and explanations. I presume you already follow them and/or are familiar with their work. If not, I'm sure someone here will post links as it becomes available. That seems like the best bet as far as ascertaining who played where and when.

I thought this was a cool little factoid from Peter King's column this morning: "Two of Miami’s last three games have been against Buffalo. Tagovailoa got yanked for ineffective play against the Bills in Week 17 last year. He had to leave because of injury after two series Sunday in south Florida. Combined score of the two games: Buffalo 91, Miami 26. Even in the great Jim Kelly/Thurman Thomas days, the Bills never laid it on the Dolphins like this in a two-game span; Kelly’s high score in back-to-back games was 79 points. The Dolphins are not in Buffalo’s league, no matter who is quarterbacking—and backup Jacoby Brissett was as ineffective as the man drafted to be the franchise quarterback 17 months ago." https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/09/20/ravens-chiefs-oweh-nfl-fmia-week-2-peter-king/

This is, in all honesty, the first game this season that I've felt totally comfortable in predicting a Bills win. I picked the Steelers in week 1 and was unfortunately correct. I thought yesterday's game was a coin flip -- and I was thankfully WAY off on that one. Washington, though? Bills win comfortably. There's no way Tyler Heinecke is outdueling Josh Allen. Ain't happenin'. He's EXACTLY the type of QB this McDermott defense -- especially the way it's playing right now -- usually feasts on.

Epenesa and Rousseau looked excellent yesterday, there's no doubt about it. What's even more wild is that they both seemed to straight up outplay Hughes and Addison. Have to wonder if after this season, the vets might be on the way out. I wouldn't have thought so with Hughes, but with the way Epenesa and Rousseau are playing, and with what Jerry makes, they may force Beane's hand on the issue. The cool thing about both Epenesa and Rousseau is that they each had an elite season in college -- both were at one point talked about as early first round picks -- and both fell to the Bills largely due to poor combine showings. Having two really good, young pass rushers will transform this defense. Now if only Basham can prove to be a player, too, by 2022...

I've gotta be honest... I just could not possibly care any less about this.

Shhhh. If I don't acknowledge it, it's not real. 16 games forever, FTW!

The prime time games this year -- with the exception of Rams-bears -- have been fantastic and gone down to the wire. Another great win. Credit to the Ravens and to Jackson for a great game. I guess Chiefs fans' "17-0?" undefeated season talk ended earlier than they thought it would this season.

So much run after the catch for the Chiefs. 5-10 yard passes followed by 30+ yards of RAC. Would love to get some of that RAC action in our offense.

Great points here. I hadn't really thought of it from this angle. I believe there's a good chance that you're correct. It definitely seems like he's pressing, rather than just letting the game come to him. "Wanting it too bad" is obviously not the worst flaw a quarterback can have. Quality post. Thanks! The team played well enough to win, largely powered by a dominant defense and a quality running game. Josh Allen, for the second week in a row, played just okay, with sub-60% completion percentage. Both of these things can be true. Normalize admitting that the quarterback has room for improvement while still being happy that the team won.

Thanks. There's a definite difference between over-reacting with stuff like "we'll never beat the Chiefs" or "contract was a mistake!" and simply pointing out that he's looked a bit off through two games. I watched the first game from the stands and the second from my couch, and it's seemed very clear to me that he hasn't had the same sharpness and accuracy that he displayed last season. I'd count roughly 8-10 plays so far where he just flat out missed a receiver that he wouldn't have missed last year. Yes, the line has failed him at times and yes, the playcalling has been puzzlingly bad at times. There have also been OTHER times, however, where Josh has a good playcall, has time, gets the open look he wants...and just misses his guy. It doesn't mean I think he can't overcome it and return to the same level of play as last season. It doesn't mean I'm off the Josh Allen bandwagon or that I think the Bills are doomed. It simply means that the reality that I'm seeing in person and on my TV is that Josh isn't throwing with the same accuracy and rhythm that he displayed last season. I still believe in him, I'm still optimistic....I'm just not gonna cover my eyes and say "la la la, there are no problems, Bills won!". Allen needs to improve.

It's weird how people aren't allowed to point out that our quarterback has been playing subpar football -- worse than last year, no doubt -- without people defensively jumping down their throat. Sure, the Bills still won today. Sure, his line isn't doing him any favors. Sure, he'll likely have better games this season. But it's okay to admit that Josh hasn't played very good football the last two weeks, and that if he doesn't improve -- REGARDLESS of what the o-line is doing -- it will be pretty worrisome. It doesn't make someone less of a Bills fan, it doesn't make them unappreciative of a win, and it doesn't make them a pessimist to call a spade a spade: Through two weeks, regardless of what other circumstances or excuses you want to throw out there, Josh HAS looked closer to the 2019 version than the 2020 version. It's not just stat sheet stuff. He's missing throws that he was NOT missing last year. He's getting away from some of those great mechanics improvements he made last year at inopportune times. Normalize being honest when the quarterback isn't playing well.

Don't forget the time he tried to explain Moss's play via Einstein, Archimedes, and the laws of physics mass in motion. At times he was funny, like a kooky old uncle. At other times, he was groan-worthy. Really bad. Thing that drove me really nuts was that he kept pronouncing Gesicki's name with soft G, like "Jesicki". HE HAS A PRONUNCIATION KEY IN FRONT OF HIM!!!

Thanks for this post. Respectfully, I never thought it meant much. I noticed the Chiefs are only a few spots "younger" than us. I think that good teams often have a balance of youngsters and veterans. I'm guessing that Hughes, Addison, Star, Klein, Hyde, Poyer, and Emmanuel Sanders are the ones driving the overall team age up. It would be one thing if we really WERE an older team across the board, but I don't think that's the case. The Bills feel like a pretty young team who happen to have a few key contributors aged 30 or older.

Watch the Bills lose to the Phins and drop to 0-2, followed by the entire national media jumping off the Bills bandwagon and calling them pretenders and frauds. Watch then as the Bills use the poor start as a rallying cry, coach McDermott gets to use his favorite motivational tactic ("Nobody believes in us!!!!"), the Bills reel off a bunch of wins to get to 6-3 by the midpoint of the season, and the players all point to the 0-2 start as a galvanizing force that brought them all together and got them to re-dedicate themselves to fundamentals or whatever. I'm not saying there seems to be a period every season where the Bills get their butts handed to them and I question everything about the team and coaches, only to see them use the bad stretch as motivation and rebound and win a bunch of games, but......well.....I guess I AM kind of saying that.

As it relates to the Bills, I saw some encouraging and not so encouraging signs with the Washington Football Team. On the plus side, they let Daniel Jones run for 95 yards. That would seem to bode well for Josh Allen. Also on the plus side, Tyler Heinicke didn't really wow me. He looks like the type of QB that the Bills defense usually does well against. On the negative side, their two defensive ends, Chase Young and Montez Sweat, are likely to give the Bills' tackles fits. Ron Rivera will be bringing a pretty fierce defense to town and will have ten days to prepare to take on his former DC, Sean McDermott. Overall, while I don't think it will be an "easy" win because of Washington's defense (and their defensive line, in particular), I don't believe the Washington offense will be able to put as many points on the board as the Bills. Bills win.

100% Actually, I mostly avoid TBD, Twitter, and any other kind of social media after a loss. I'm already usually in low enough spirits after a loss that I don't see any point in piling on by immersing myself in negativity. On the flip side, after a Bills win, I soak up all the articles, social media, and TBD that I can. Actually -- and this is a little off topic -- I find that I spend much more time here in the offseason than during the season. I wonder if that's common or if I'm just a weirdo. I find that discussing roster construction, free agency, draft picks, etc, is more interesting than dissecting wins and losses on this forum.

Assuming Hughes sticks around, we'll have: Hughes Rousseau Epenesa Basham Obada We just have to hope the three youngsters step up. I would hope that after spending a 1st and two 2nds on edge rushers, they won't need to dip their toe in the free agency pool at that position.

I believe what Chris Simms said is correct. I also believe -- to echo what someone said on Twitter yesterday -- that any time an opposing defense can rush four, drop seven, and get to the quarterback as easily as the Steelers did, that quarterback is going to have a bad game 99% of the time.