Logic

@TBBills, would love to know why you thumbs-downed my post about the Dolphins being tougher on offense this year than last. I mean it's fine if you disagree, but is there any good reason to think they won't be better after the pieces they've added? Gotta hear the reasoning.

For one thing, I think you overestimate the Chiefs' ability to easily replace a guy like Tyreek Hill. In his first six seasons, he's made the Pro Bowl six times and has three First Team All-Pros. He's only the 4th WR since 1970 to catch at least six touchdown passes in each of his first six seasons. The other three? Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Larry Fitzgerald. He is indisputably the primary engine of the Chiefs offense and he drastically changes the way that teams defend the Chiefs. Subtracting him from that team absolutely could make them much less effective, even IF they draft two shiny new rookie WRs, because very few have the game-changing speed and ability of Tyreek Hill. Secondly, as it relates to the Bills -- the Chiefs have undeniably been the main impediment to the Bills making the Super Bowl the past two seasons. In his last two playoff games against the Bills, Hill has 20 catches for 320 yards and 2 TDs. Seeing that type of talent leave the roster of our main playoff rival these past two seasons is a good thing. Lastly, you're right: We have to face Hill twice a year now. But with how often we've been facing the Chiefs in the regular season and playoffs, we were facing him twice a year anyway, but on a better opponent! I think people would rather bank on the idea that while the Dolphins will be better, the Bills have gone 7-1 against them in the past eight games and Allen tends to play them really well every time they line up. We already KNOW that Hill makes the Chiefs almost impossible to defend. What we DON'T know is whether he'll do the same for the Dolphins. He could, sure, but it's no lock. Better, in the opinion of many, to definitely weaken the stronger competition (the Chiefs) and POSSIBLY -- even LIKELY -- strengthen the weaker competition (the Dolphins), knowing that it still probably doesn't put them at the Bills' level.

In general, I think McDaniel will find tons of creative, effective ways to use Miami's team speed. Screens, jet sweeps, RPOs, WRs flexing into the backfield... Hill, Waddle, Mostert, Edmonds, Bowden (as you mention)...Then, when you're concentrated on all that speed, Mike Gesicki and Cedrick Wilson catching 1st downs underneath. Dolphins offense will be a lot harder to deal with than in recent seasons, even WITH Tua's limited physical skillset. Everyone rightly points out that Tua doesn't/can't throw long effectively, but here's a stat: Tua had the 4th shortest average distance per throw in the NFL. Who had the 5th shortest? Patrick Mahomes.

Agreed. I don't think Hill is so easily replaceable, though. Maybe the overall depth they build elsewhere on the roster with the draft haul helps them improve overall. Maybe they draft a couple young WRs who help fill the void left by Hill. But again, replacing a guy who, in his first six seasons, has six Pro Bowls and three 1st team All-Pros to his name and is arguably the most dangerous weapon in the NFL and who is indisputably the prime engine of that offense... It's just not gonna be easy, that's all I'm saying. But your point is absolutely fair and correct.

Has @Zerovoltz stopped in yet to explain how this is a genius move by Reid and co and actually makes the Chiefs much better, or nah?

I think we're going to continue to own the Dolphins as much as the next guy. I also think Hill will become an under-producing malcontent, and will not like the steep dropoff in targets, production, prestige, and prime time games. I also think it's stupid to give up that much draft capital for AND spend that much on a WR when you're not sure if your QB is "the guy" yet. I also think that between Waddle and Hill, the Phins have now spent three 1sts, two 2nds, two fourths, and a 6th, not to mention a mega-contract, on 2 WRs. Despite me saying all of that... I can't deny that the Dolphins got materially better today. They added a six time Pro Bowler, three time All-Pro. This just a day after adding a Pro Bowl LT. Hill - Waddle - Wilson - Parker - Gesicki - Edmonds - Mostert - Gaskin, with an improved offensive line, is about as much as they could have done to set Tua up for success. It all comes down to the QB now...

Tyreek Hill, Devante Adams, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods… I don’t ever want to hear “the cap isn’t real” again.

Agreed on both counts. A guy like Hill in a city like Miami, playing for a bad QB/team, taking up $20M+ on the cap as he ages into his 30s… He’s gonna be an under producing malcontent. I’m just not worried enough about Tua or the Phins to NOT want this to happen. Weaken the Chiefs. Bills are still winning the East 🤷‍♂️

I think they already have two safeties on the roster that they like and are grooming behind Po and Hyde: Damar Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson. I also think they like practice squad guy Josh Thomas quite a bit. Could they draft a safety? Sure. But I think they have a five-deep depth chart that they like there as it is.

Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane's little sister.

I agree. I'd prefer a WR, personally. I'm just sort of resigning myself to a 1st round CB. Hopefully I'm wrong. I, like you, think that McDermott's scheme and his coach-em-up ability with DBs mean he can get a CB in rounds 2-5 who can very capably start -- and excel -- at CB2.

Fair enough, but he sure doesn't look like a 4.39 guy on tape. Plenty of instances of him getting caught from behind.

With as dire as the Bills needs at CB and OG are, and considering how much they could use some dynamic young WRs, and given how good Singletary looked in the last quarter of the season once given the reins…. I find it hard to imagine that Beane would use the 25th pick on a running back, especially one who offers no more breakaway speed than the guys currently on our roster.

I've been thinking about Knox a lot lately, and how 2022 might be his year to take a firm step into the upper echelon of tight ends in the NFL. Specifically, last year, if you were to ask "who are the Bills' main weapons in the passing attack?", the answer would've probably been "Diggs, Sanders, Beasley" early on, and "Diggs, Davis, Beasley" later in the season. Throughout 2020, the Bills' passing attack was WR-centric. Knox became more of a featured player in 2021, but I'd argue it was still mostly WR-centric. As we watched Beasley walk out the door and be replaced only by a high floor vet on a one-year deal in Crowder, I thought to ask myself the question again. "Who are the Bills' main weapons in the passing attack in 2022?". I think now my answer would be "Diggs, Davis, and Knox". That is, I think that -- more than Crowder or McKenzie, or whoever they add in the draft -- Knox will be one of the top three options. In terms of targets and receptions, he may actually be the second or third leading pass catcher on the team. When you think of the Chiefs' passing attack in the same light, the answer to the "who are the top options?" question is indisputably "Hill and Kelce, then some other guys". Hill and Kelce are so good that it doesn't even matter that they're surrounded by "just some other guys". I wonder if Knox can get to that level this year. I think he can. The level where you say "it's Diggs, Knox, and Davis", and it doesn't even matter who the other guys are, because those are the top three, and they're more than potent enough on their own. I think 2022 will be Knox's year. I think he can do it.

Now that the meat of free agency is over with -- there will be a few more bargain signings, I'm sure, but they hay is mostly in the barn -- I'm ready to turn my attention to the draft. At this point, even if/when Beane signs a veteran CB, I fully expect the Bills to use a high pick or two on cornerbacks. It wouldn't even surprise me if they doubled up on CBs this year the way they did with EDGE and OTs last year. I'm still learning about all of the cornerbacks as I write this. Early on, with much more reading and learning to be done, I like: Early pick (round 1): Andrew Booth - Thick, physical, well-built. At his best in zone coverage, with good closing speed and quickness. Also has the athleticism to effectively play man when called upon. More than willing to mix it up in the run game. Aggressive tackler. Mid-to-Late pick (round 3): Cam Taylor-Britt - I could copy and paste most of what I wrote about Booth. The key difference is that Taylor-Britt appears to lack the athleticism and quickness to play man coverage as effectively as Booth. Scouts say he's a bit of a side-shuffler rather than back-peddler, which likely means he's prone to getting beat by deep speed and double moves. Still, in the Frazier/McDermott defense, seems like he could more than hold his own and be a capable CB2. At worst, appears to have the size and physicality to switch to safety if he flames out at corner, though I don't think he will. Who do you like at corner early? Who do you like later on? Why?

Great Ty Dunne feature about Knox today, though I know some still have hurt feelings from past Dunne articles. I’ll post just a couple excerpts. https://www.golongtd.com/p/dawson-knox-i-want-to-be-in-the-conversation?s=r Where were you at this point last year as you went into the offseason? It seemed like everyone viewed this offense as “a tight end away.” It was a position that people wanted. You were a name easily discarded as, “he’s not part of the plan.” Knox: Last year, it was frustrating knowing that I was an afterthought in the offense. I wasn’t really featured to do much. I was still playing most of the game but I wasn’t getting play calls tailored to me. I wasn’t getting route concepts where I was the first guy Josh was looking at. Because I really hadn’t shown enough to get that respect from our offensive coordinator and Josh. So, I just knew I was going to have to earn confidence from them through the whole offseason. It was huge for me last year to go to California for four or five weeks, get extra reps in with Josh and then to be up in Buffalo for all of OTAs and to show them I’m dedicated to developing into the player they needed me to be for the offense. So, it was a slow trust-building process. After the first couple of games, getting a few more balls thrown to me and making big plays, it just started building that confidence with “Coach Dabes,” and he started giving me more play calls and Josh started looking for me more on different routes. So, it was a very gradual process that started as soon as the season ended last year. When you lost to Kansas City last year, it was that instant? Knox: I took about two weeks off to let my body recover and to reset. And then everything I did from there on out was with the focus of trying to become a premier tight end in the league. Whether that was going to do hand-eye coordination drills or doing extra run blocking with run-blocking specialists or doing the “Tight End U” deal. Everything I did last year was a totally different motivation I had after my rookie year. After my rookie year, I thought I had a solid year for a rookie and that I’d naturally make another jump after learning the offense. I was a little too complacent going into Year 2. I really didn’t have that same hunger that I had for most of my career — because as a walk-on you’ve got to fight harder than everybody just to have a spot. That’s what helped me so much in college. And then when I finally go to the league, I was a starter as a rookie. So, I went from being a walk-on to Day 1 in the league I’m a starting tight end. I lost that edge of trying to prove everyone wrong and just trying to outwork everyone. So going into Year 2, I still worked hard. Everyone in the league does. But I didn’t have that same walk-on mindset that helped me so much in college and helped me get to where I was at. So it was really a mental flip. I had to flip that switch. I guess it really was this time last year — to not just be happy being an OK starter. I wanted to be one of the elite guys when the tight end position was brought up. That’s the same mentality I’m going to take into this offseason, too. The second you start getting complacent is the second guys start taking peoples’ jobs. And last offseason, from afar, it seemed like you had reasons to feel doubted and reasons to get pissed off. The GM said at a press conference… Knox: …Yeah, he said “We don’t have a tight end that defenses fear.” Something like that. That re-lit that competitive spirit. I came into the league and it wasn’t easy but I didn’t have to work as hard as I had in the past. It re-lit that fire of, OK, I really need to go back to that dog mentality of, “I’m going to outwork everybody. I’m going to prove everybody wrong.” I needed that. That is something that really motivated me. I’m going to do my best the rest of my career to remember that feeling. That motivation, that competitiveness is what I think will drive people to be the best player they can possibly be. Were you pissed off when you heard that? Knox: Oh yeah. Being pissed about it is the greatest motivation you can have. That anger of people saying things. I never read the media. I don’t look at all the tweets or comments because that’s all poisonous to begin with, whether it’s good or bad. You can’t really read into the media. But when your own GM says something like, “Oh, we need to find a tight end that’ll be a weapon who defenses fear,” I was like, “Alright! It’s time to go.” That was huge for me. I’m glad he said that. And I felt like all offseason long, the Bills were on Tinder trying to swipe right on Zach Ertz. Knox: And you can’t control anything like that. Part of me wanted them to bring him in. I knew that’d elevate my play, too. I was excited to compete with him. I thought it was going to happen the way everyone was talking about it. But then going into camp we had our meetings with the whole front office and the coaches and they were like, “You’re our guy. We’re ready to see what you got. We have all the faith in the world in you.” So, I was like “Alright. I guess they’re not bringing him in. Time to get to work.” But part of me wanted them to bring him in so I could say I beat out Zach Ertz for the starting job. Back in college, coming in behind an All-American, I knew that it’d take some serious, serious work to get to his level. Then, when (Engram) left, they brought in three tight ends to the same recruiting class. I was going into my redshirt sophomore year. So I was going into my third season and they brought in, I think, three four-stars all at tight end. So I said, “Alright. It’s time to beat all of these guys out.” It’s just that competition that’ll fuel any athlete to be the best they can be. The better the room is the better the player’s going to be.

Exactly what I was about to post. In his PC, said he was unsure/nervous all day, wondering if he made the right choice. It wasn’t til he met the coaches and signed his contract that he finally “became Von again” and started smiling and loosening up. That showed very clearly in this video. It’s actually one of the better looks into the human/psychological aspects of the free agency process I’ve ever seen. These guys are PEOPLE. They get nervous at day one on the new job just like everyone else. Pretty cool.

Just one note: He’s the same age — 29 — that Beasley was when he signed with the Bills. If he fails to stick or contribute here, I don’t feel that age will be the reason. I’m admittedly an eternal optimist, but the fact that Crowder had more career catches, yards, and touchdowns in his 7 years prior to joining the Bills than Beasley had in HIS 7 pre-Bills years, all while playing with much worse quarterbacks than Beasley had….makes me hopeful that Crowder can be a productive slot receiver in this offense. That said, if I had my ‘druthers, the Bills would draft a more explosive receiver in round 1 or 2 that pushes Crowder down or off the depth chart. I look at 29 year old Crowder as a push with 32 year old Beasley, but I’d prefer an UPGRADE to Beasley.

Scott…this is one of the rare occasions where you and I are on the same page: I really want a 1st round WR in the draft this year. I agree that it’s time to start spending some premium draft capital on offense. Keep the fastball.

He’s a 70 catches for 600-700 yards and 6TDs per year kind of guy. Still just 29. As others have said, he can split time in the slot with McKenzie, although he’s a honestly a more consistent, proven option there than McKenzie. I think he can easily replace Beasley’s production, personally. Just look at his career stats combined with who’s been throwing to him! This likely means the 1st round pick is CB. It still COULD be a WR , I suppose, but as of this moment, the CB depth chart is looking pretty sad. Definitely s much bigger need than Wr. They’ll still draft a WR but it’ll more likely be somewhere in rounds 2-4. And I’ll believe Beane spends a 1st on a guard when I see it. Start heavily studying the CBs, kiddos. Anyway…Crowder isn’t flashy, but he’ll wind up being an underrated, productive piece on our offense.

It seems pretty cut and dry: The Bills felt like they had at least one, and possibly two running backs on the roster that they like on 1st and 2nd down in Singletary (and maybe) Moss. However, they felt like they could upgrade at 3rd down back. A guy who can pass block, turn checkdowns into 1st downs, and split out wide and contribute rather than just being a decoy. Their plan A was McKissic, but it didn't work out, so they went to a (likely much cheaper) plan B. Funnily enough, the plan B guy has more career production, higher yards per reception and yards per target than McKissic, is the same age, and will cost less. Right now, IMO, you're looking at Singletary as the primary running back and Duke Johnson as the 3rd down and two minute offense back -- a guy who, given how often the Bills pass, should play significant snaps and could catch 50 passes in this offense. Given that the Bills like the third active running back on game days to be a special teams guy, two things are probably true: Zack Moss is on notice and is a trade candidate, and the Bills will likely either sign a special teams ace RB or draft a guy in the late rounds.

Sure, just completely ignore the 1st round RB picks that DON’T work out. How do you think the Giants feel about Barkley, how do the Panthers feel paying almost $20M a year for an oft injured CMC? I’m sure the Seahawks don’t regret spending a 1st on Rashaad Penny, and that the Chiefs are thrilled they took Clyde Edwards Helaire. First round running backs don’t always work out, however selectively you might like to list them.