Logic

I liked this one a lot. Would have preferred a WR earlier, but the board fell how it fell. Double up at CB, IOL, and RB (Hall great value and Borghi to be new 3rd down back), snag sleeper speed WR and Punt God late.

Imagine if Dave Gettelman wasn’t an idiot, and the top three picks had been Mayfield, Allen, Darnold. Assuming the Bills didn’t like Rosen or Jackson, it’s depressing to imagine a world in which they drafted Kyle Lauletta or Mason Rudolph. Good lord. I don’t ever want to think about this again.

In today's NFL, go and get: Head Coach and Franchise QB. Keep your QB upright and give him some weapons. Be able to take down the opposing QB (pass rush) and take the ball away from him (secondary). Then...hope that your front office's resource allocation and salary cap management is good enough to keep the above core in place (and/or replenished when necessary) and surrounded by enough complementary pieces to keep a championship window open for 5-10 years. Bills are on track. Vegas agrees.

One thing I hadn’t considered is that Singletary is on the last year of his rookie deal, and I doubt we’ll re-sign him to a second contract. Too many more important re-signings coming due. Beane DOES like to stay ahead of needs by a year, so a highly drafted running backs isn’t totally out of the question, I guess. I’d still rather get CB, WR, OG in some order this year, ride Motor for 2022, and worry about RB next year…but I could see them addressing it this year instead, I suppose.

Starting to see these 2nd/3rd round OT visits pile up. I know teams visit with lots of players at lots of positions, but you sort of wonder if OT could be a sneaky pick this draft. Spencer Brown was good most of the time, but not SO good that Beane would definitely say "we're all set at tackle!", ESPECIALLY with only unproven depth in Tommy Doyle behind Dawkins and Brown.

We all know the lip service every GM, including Beane, gives to BPA. We have also heard Beane specifically say that they take the "best player available AT A POSITION OF NEED". It's a copout to always answer "we'll take the best player available", pretending that the team doesn't have preference when it comes to what position it would like to spend it's most premium pick on, and/or pretending that the odds of taking a corner aren't greater than, say, a linebacker. If you really, truly believe that they adhere that strictly to BPA, without regard to positional needs, then do you feel it's just as likely that the Bills draft a left tackle as that they draft a corner in the 1st round this year?

@TBBills, would love to know why you thumbs-downed my post about the Dolphins being tougher on offense this year than last. I mean it's fine if you disagree, but is there any good reason to think they won't be better after the pieces they've added? Gotta hear the reasoning.

For one thing, I think you overestimate the Chiefs' ability to easily replace a guy like Tyreek Hill. In his first six seasons, he's made the Pro Bowl six times and has three First Team All-Pros. He's only the 4th WR since 1970 to catch at least six touchdown passes in each of his first six seasons. The other three? Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, and Larry Fitzgerald. He is indisputably the primary engine of the Chiefs offense and he drastically changes the way that teams defend the Chiefs. Subtracting him from that team absolutely could make them much less effective, even IF they draft two shiny new rookie WRs, because very few have the game-changing speed and ability of Tyreek Hill. Secondly, as it relates to the Bills -- the Chiefs have undeniably been the main impediment to the Bills making the Super Bowl the past two seasons. In his last two playoff games against the Bills, Hill has 20 catches for 320 yards and 2 TDs. Seeing that type of talent leave the roster of our main playoff rival these past two seasons is a good thing. Lastly, you're right: We have to face Hill twice a year now. But with how often we've been facing the Chiefs in the regular season and playoffs, we were facing him twice a year anyway, but on a better opponent! I think people would rather bank on the idea that while the Dolphins will be better, the Bills have gone 7-1 against them in the past eight games and Allen tends to play them really well every time they line up. We already KNOW that Hill makes the Chiefs almost impossible to defend. What we DON'T know is whether he'll do the same for the Dolphins. He could, sure, but it's no lock. Better, in the opinion of many, to definitely weaken the stronger competition (the Chiefs) and POSSIBLY -- even LIKELY -- strengthen the weaker competition (the Dolphins), knowing that it still probably doesn't put them at the Bills' level.

In general, I think McDaniel will find tons of creative, effective ways to use Miami's team speed. Screens, jet sweeps, RPOs, WRs flexing into the backfield... Hill, Waddle, Mostert, Edmonds, Bowden (as you mention)...Then, when you're concentrated on all that speed, Mike Gesicki and Cedrick Wilson catching 1st downs underneath. Dolphins offense will be a lot harder to deal with than in recent seasons, even WITH Tua's limited physical skillset. Everyone rightly points out that Tua doesn't/can't throw long effectively, but here's a stat: Tua had the 4th shortest average distance per throw in the NFL. Who had the 5th shortest? Patrick Mahomes.

Agreed. I don't think Hill is so easily replaceable, though. Maybe the overall depth they build elsewhere on the roster with the draft haul helps them improve overall. Maybe they draft a couple young WRs who help fill the void left by Hill. But again, replacing a guy who, in his first six seasons, has six Pro Bowls and three 1st team All-Pros to his name and is arguably the most dangerous weapon in the NFL and who is indisputably the prime engine of that offense... It's just not gonna be easy, that's all I'm saying. But your point is absolutely fair and correct.

Has @Zerovoltz stopped in yet to explain how this is a genius move by Reid and co and actually makes the Chiefs much better, or nah?

I think we're going to continue to own the Dolphins as much as the next guy. I also think Hill will become an under-producing malcontent, and will not like the steep dropoff in targets, production, prestige, and prime time games. I also think it's stupid to give up that much draft capital for AND spend that much on a WR when you're not sure if your QB is "the guy" yet. I also think that between Waddle and Hill, the Phins have now spent three 1sts, two 2nds, two fourths, and a 6th, not to mention a mega-contract, on 2 WRs. Despite me saying all of that... I can't deny that the Dolphins got materially better today. They added a six time Pro Bowler, three time All-Pro. This just a day after adding a Pro Bowl LT. Hill - Waddle - Wilson - Parker - Gesicki - Edmonds - Mostert - Gaskin, with an improved offensive line, is about as much as they could have done to set Tua up for success. It all comes down to the QB now...

Tyreek Hill, Devante Adams, Amari Cooper, Robert Woods… I don’t ever want to hear “the cap isn’t real” again.

Agreed on both counts. A guy like Hill in a city like Miami, playing for a bad QB/team, taking up $20M+ on the cap as he ages into his 30s… He’s gonna be an under producing malcontent. I’m just not worried enough about Tua or the Phins to NOT want this to happen. Weaken the Chiefs. Bills are still winning the East 🤷‍♂️

I think they already have two safeties on the roster that they like and are grooming behind Po and Hyde: Damar Hamlin and Jaquan Johnson. I also think they like practice squad guy Josh Thomas quite a bit. Could they draft a safety? Sure. But I think they have a five-deep depth chart that they like there as it is.

Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane's little sister.

I agree. I'd prefer a WR, personally. I'm just sort of resigning myself to a 1st round CB. Hopefully I'm wrong. I, like you, think that McDermott's scheme and his coach-em-up ability with DBs mean he can get a CB in rounds 2-5 who can very capably start -- and excel -- at CB2.

Fair enough, but he sure doesn't look like a 4.39 guy on tape. Plenty of instances of him getting caught from behind.

With as dire as the Bills needs at CB and OG are, and considering how much they could use some dynamic young WRs, and given how good Singletary looked in the last quarter of the season once given the reins…. I find it hard to imagine that Beane would use the 25th pick on a running back, especially one who offers no more breakaway speed than the guys currently on our roster.

I've been thinking about Knox a lot lately, and how 2022 might be his year to take a firm step into the upper echelon of tight ends in the NFL. Specifically, last year, if you were to ask "who are the Bills' main weapons in the passing attack?", the answer would've probably been "Diggs, Sanders, Beasley" early on, and "Diggs, Davis, Beasley" later in the season. Throughout 2020, the Bills' passing attack was WR-centric. Knox became more of a featured player in 2021, but I'd argue it was still mostly WR-centric. As we watched Beasley walk out the door and be replaced only by a high floor vet on a one-year deal in Crowder, I thought to ask myself the question again. "Who are the Bills' main weapons in the passing attack in 2022?". I think now my answer would be "Diggs, Davis, and Knox". That is, I think that -- more than Crowder or McKenzie, or whoever they add in the draft -- Knox will be one of the top three options. In terms of targets and receptions, he may actually be the second or third leading pass catcher on the team. When you think of the Chiefs' passing attack in the same light, the answer to the "who are the top options?" question is indisputably "Hill and Kelce, then some other guys". Hill and Kelce are so good that it doesn't even matter that they're surrounded by "just some other guys". I wonder if Knox can get to that level this year. I think he can. The level where you say "it's Diggs, Knox, and Davis", and it doesn't even matter who the other guys are, because those are the top three, and they're more than potent enough on their own. I think 2022 will be Knox's year. I think he can do it.

Now that the meat of free agency is over with -- there will be a few more bargain signings, I'm sure, but they hay is mostly in the barn -- I'm ready to turn my attention to the draft. At this point, even if/when Beane signs a veteran CB, I fully expect the Bills to use a high pick or two on cornerbacks. It wouldn't even surprise me if they doubled up on CBs this year the way they did with EDGE and OTs last year. I'm still learning about all of the cornerbacks as I write this. Early on, with much more reading and learning to be done, I like: Early pick (round 1): Andrew Booth - Thick, physical, well-built. At his best in zone coverage, with good closing speed and quickness. Also has the athleticism to effectively play man when called upon. More than willing to mix it up in the run game. Aggressive tackler. Mid-to-Late pick (round 3): Cam Taylor-Britt - I could copy and paste most of what I wrote about Booth. The key difference is that Taylor-Britt appears to lack the athleticism and quickness to play man coverage as effectively as Booth. Scouts say he's a bit of a side-shuffler rather than back-peddler, which likely means he's prone to getting beat by deep speed and double moves. Still, in the Frazier/McDermott defense, seems like he could more than hold his own and be a capable CB2. At worst, appears to have the size and physicality to switch to safety if he flames out at corner, though I don't think he will. Who do you like at corner early? Who do you like later on? Why?