Logic

Great Ty Dunne feature about Knox today, though I know some still have hurt feelings from past Dunne articles. I’ll post just a couple excerpts. https://www.golongtd.com/p/dawson-knox-i-want-to-be-in-the-conversation?s=r Where were you at this point last year as you went into the offseason? It seemed like everyone viewed this offense as “a tight end away.” It was a position that people wanted. You were a name easily discarded as, “he’s not part of the plan.” Knox: Last year, it was frustrating knowing that I was an afterthought in the offense. I wasn’t really featured to do much. I was still playing most of the game but I wasn’t getting play calls tailored to me. I wasn’t getting route concepts where I was the first guy Josh was looking at. Because I really hadn’t shown enough to get that respect from our offensive coordinator and Josh. So, I just knew I was going to have to earn confidence from them through the whole offseason. It was huge for me last year to go to California for four or five weeks, get extra reps in with Josh and then to be up in Buffalo for all of OTAs and to show them I’m dedicated to developing into the player they needed me to be for the offense. So, it was a slow trust-building process. After the first couple of games, getting a few more balls thrown to me and making big plays, it just started building that confidence with “Coach Dabes,” and he started giving me more play calls and Josh started looking for me more on different routes. So, it was a very gradual process that started as soon as the season ended last year. When you lost to Kansas City last year, it was that instant? Knox: I took about two weeks off to let my body recover and to reset. And then everything I did from there on out was with the focus of trying to become a premier tight end in the league. Whether that was going to do hand-eye coordination drills or doing extra run blocking with run-blocking specialists or doing the “Tight End U” deal. Everything I did last year was a totally different motivation I had after my rookie year. After my rookie year, I thought I had a solid year for a rookie and that I’d naturally make another jump after learning the offense. I was a little too complacent going into Year 2. I really didn’t have that same hunger that I had for most of my career — because as a walk-on you’ve got to fight harder than everybody just to have a spot. That’s what helped me so much in college. And then when I finally go to the league, I was a starter as a rookie. So, I went from being a walk-on to Day 1 in the league I’m a starting tight end. I lost that edge of trying to prove everyone wrong and just trying to outwork everyone. So going into Year 2, I still worked hard. Everyone in the league does. But I didn’t have that same walk-on mindset that helped me so much in college and helped me get to where I was at. So it was really a mental flip. I had to flip that switch. I guess it really was this time last year — to not just be happy being an OK starter. I wanted to be one of the elite guys when the tight end position was brought up. That’s the same mentality I’m going to take into this offseason, too. The second you start getting complacent is the second guys start taking peoples’ jobs. And last offseason, from afar, it seemed like you had reasons to feel doubted and reasons to get pissed off. The GM said at a press conference… Knox: …Yeah, he said “We don’t have a tight end that defenses fear.” Something like that. That re-lit that competitive spirit. I came into the league and it wasn’t easy but I didn’t have to work as hard as I had in the past. It re-lit that fire of, OK, I really need to go back to that dog mentality of, “I’m going to outwork everybody. I’m going to prove everybody wrong.” I needed that. That is something that really motivated me. I’m going to do my best the rest of my career to remember that feeling. That motivation, that competitiveness is what I think will drive people to be the best player they can possibly be. Were you pissed off when you heard that? Knox: Oh yeah. Being pissed about it is the greatest motivation you can have. That anger of people saying things. I never read the media. I don’t look at all the tweets or comments because that’s all poisonous to begin with, whether it’s good or bad. You can’t really read into the media. But when your own GM says something like, “Oh, we need to find a tight end that’ll be a weapon who defenses fear,” I was like, “Alright! It’s time to go.” That was huge for me. I’m glad he said that. And I felt like all offseason long, the Bills were on Tinder trying to swipe right on Zach Ertz. Knox: And you can’t control anything like that. Part of me wanted them to bring him in. I knew that’d elevate my play, too. I was excited to compete with him. I thought it was going to happen the way everyone was talking about it. But then going into camp we had our meetings with the whole front office and the coaches and they were like, “You’re our guy. We’re ready to see what you got. We have all the faith in the world in you.” So, I was like “Alright. I guess they’re not bringing him in. Time to get to work.” But part of me wanted them to bring him in so I could say I beat out Zach Ertz for the starting job. Back in college, coming in behind an All-American, I knew that it’d take some serious, serious work to get to his level. Then, when (Engram) left, they brought in three tight ends to the same recruiting class. I was going into my redshirt sophomore year. So I was going into my third season and they brought in, I think, three four-stars all at tight end. So I said, “Alright. It’s time to beat all of these guys out.” It’s just that competition that’ll fuel any athlete to be the best they can be. The better the room is the better the player’s going to be.

Exactly what I was about to post. In his PC, said he was unsure/nervous all day, wondering if he made the right choice. It wasn’t til he met the coaches and signed his contract that he finally “became Von again” and started smiling and loosening up. That showed very clearly in this video. It’s actually one of the better looks into the human/psychological aspects of the free agency process I’ve ever seen. These guys are PEOPLE. They get nervous at day one on the new job just like everyone else. Pretty cool.

Just one note: He’s the same age — 29 — that Beasley was when he signed with the Bills. If he fails to stick or contribute here, I don’t feel that age will be the reason. I’m admittedly an eternal optimist, but the fact that Crowder had more career catches, yards, and touchdowns in his 7 years prior to joining the Bills than Beasley had in HIS 7 pre-Bills years, all while playing with much worse quarterbacks than Beasley had….makes me hopeful that Crowder can be a productive slot receiver in this offense. That said, if I had my ‘druthers, the Bills would draft a more explosive receiver in round 1 or 2 that pushes Crowder down or off the depth chart. I look at 29 year old Crowder as a push with 32 year old Beasley, but I’d prefer an UPGRADE to Beasley.

Scott…this is one of the rare occasions where you and I are on the same page: I really want a 1st round WR in the draft this year. I agree that it’s time to start spending some premium draft capital on offense. Keep the fastball.

He’s a 70 catches for 600-700 yards and 6TDs per year kind of guy. Still just 29. As others have said, he can split time in the slot with McKenzie, although he’s a honestly a more consistent, proven option there than McKenzie. I think he can easily replace Beasley’s production, personally. Just look at his career stats combined with who’s been throwing to him! This likely means the 1st round pick is CB. It still COULD be a WR , I suppose, but as of this moment, the CB depth chart is looking pretty sad. Definitely s much bigger need than Wr. They’ll still draft a WR but it’ll more likely be somewhere in rounds 2-4. And I’ll believe Beane spends a 1st on a guard when I see it. Start heavily studying the CBs, kiddos. Anyway…Crowder isn’t flashy, but he’ll wind up being an underrated, productive piece on our offense.

It seems pretty cut and dry: The Bills felt like they had at least one, and possibly two running backs on the roster that they like on 1st and 2nd down in Singletary (and maybe) Moss. However, they felt like they could upgrade at 3rd down back. A guy who can pass block, turn checkdowns into 1st downs, and split out wide and contribute rather than just being a decoy. Their plan A was McKissic, but it didn't work out, so they went to a (likely much cheaper) plan B. Funnily enough, the plan B guy has more career production, higher yards per reception and yards per target than McKissic, is the same age, and will cost less. Right now, IMO, you're looking at Singletary as the primary running back and Duke Johnson as the 3rd down and two minute offense back -- a guy who, given how often the Bills pass, should play significant snaps and could catch 50 passes in this offense. Given that the Bills like the third active running back on game days to be a special teams guy, two things are probably true: Zack Moss is on notice and is a trade candidate, and the Bills will likely either sign a special teams ace RB or draft a guy in the late rounds.

Sure, just completely ignore the 1st round RB picks that DON’T work out. How do you think the Giants feel about Barkley, how do the Panthers feel paying almost $20M a year for an oft injured CMC? I’m sure the Seahawks don’t regret spending a 1st on Rashaad Penny, and that the Chiefs are thrilled they took Clyde Edwards Helaire. First round running backs don’t always work out, however selectively you might like to list them.

You're just on a one-man crusade this year for Breece Hall. Anything the Bills do that negatively impacts their chances of drafting him -- and let's be honest, with holes at CB, WR, and OL, all of which are more important positions than RB, it's not likely that they draft him ANYWAY -- causes you to jump into the thread and make dramatic pronouncements like "if they don't want to win a Super Bowl, it's their prerogative". One of the more dedicated, relentless, humorous draft campaigns I've seen on this forum over the years.

I know Duke Johnson doesn't have the same "panache" as JD McKissic, but... As I pointed out in the charts above, he has higher career yards per reception and yards per target and more career production than McKissic, and they are the same age. I'm not here to tell you that Johnson is some great signing or that he is a roster lock. He's probably a vet minimum signing. I'm just trying to say that the difference in excitement levels on this board between McKissic and Johnson is a little bit funny, and points to recency bias. They're the same guy 🤷‍♂️

check the charts, my man:

Agreed about Callahan. I only mentioned him because the pickins are getting slim at CB at the moment, particularly with Beane admitting that he’s employing a “hey, please come play for below market value and get a ring!” technique at this point. A bigger outside guy would certainly be better. Had Steven Nelson signed anywhere? Personally I’ve been hoping for two years now that they’d acquire Josh Jackson from Green Bay, who was badly miscast in their man-heavy system but who I think would be great in our defense.

If...and I stress IF this list is true, because I have no idea if it is, and they don't list their sources for this information.... Then it shows that the Bills are thinking WR, CB, and OG with their first round pick. It seems reasonable based on this visit list, as well as what we all know the top roster needs are, that whichever player they view as "BPA" among this list, that still happens to be on the board, will be their pick.

I really need to see how the rest of free agency plays out. If they sign a viable veteran CB like Bryce Callahan or Joe Haden, I think they’ll take a WR in the first (Olave, Williams, or Dotson. Gun to my head, I’ll say Dotson). If they sign a viable WR like Jamison Crowder, I think they’ll take a CB in the first (McDuffie, Booth, Elam. Gun to my head? Booth…if he’s there). If they sign both a CB and WR or neither, then I think they’ll pick whichever CB or WR is highest on their board. One way or another, I think CB and WR will be the first two picks, followed by an interior lineman.

I’m not really sure what Saffold has to do with this discussion, but I do expect a lot more 12 personnel this season. Beane specifically mentioned it (albeit as a hypothetical) when asked what wrinkles Dorsey might add to the offense. Then, choosing to spend a few million on OJ Howard (after also reportedly having interest in Gronk and Engram) in a generally cap-strapped year all but confirms it. As for 22? Other than short yardage situations, I doubt we see that very often. Choosing to put Reggie Gilliam on the field instead of David or Diggs does not seem logical.

I stand corrected. Early 2nd. Pick 42.

He’d be good here, I think. I don’t believe a 7th round pick gets it done. Woods was cheap because he’s a salary dump, soon-to-be 30 year old coming off a torn ACL. Shenault is two seasons removed from being a 1st round pick, is young and healthy cheap labor. If they’d take a mid round pick, say a 4th, I’d be in. Talented guy.

Not sure if this has been said yet in this thread, but… Whaley was excellent at collecting talent, but had no idea what it meant to build a TEAM. Simple.

Would love to know what backups in the league you think are better than Keenum — that were potentially available, no less.

Great point. I agree. Lots of “locker room superstars” coming back. And from the outside looking in, I agree that something seemed a bit off. Whether that was the case or not, it’s never a bad thing to bring back guys with great energy who have a positive effect on team chemistry.

I’m betting Bills give him a new multi-year deal, with a lower cap hit this season. Echoing what others said, I like the pickup. One of the better backups in the league. Knows he’s a backup, so might stick around a few seasons. Knowledge to share with Josh. Rapport with Diggs. If you need him for five games, he can win you 3 of them and keep your season alive. Good get. EDIT: Barkley coming back too, as the new Davis Webb practice squad guy? Sign me up. Players said he did A LOT for the locker room, team culture, organizing workouts and get-together. Etc

All this stuff about the legal system…. The legal system only decides whether and to what degree a person will face legal repercussions. If what the legal system decides is sufficient to shape some people’s feelings about an accused person, and/or how they react to or support or do not support said person, then fine, that’s their choice. That said, it is also perfectly valid to form an opinion about an accused person based on the cumulative total of allegations and/or evidence at hand. For me, the legal system is not the be-all/end-all arbiter if my reaction to or feeling about an accused person. It is far too deeply flawed to ascribe to it any final say in how I feel about a person alleged to have committed crimes or misconduct. As such, regardless of the grand jury decision about Watson, I still feel — based on the collective weight of the 22 complaints, the similar nature and specificity of those complaints, and the egregiously heinous conduct described therein — that Watson is likely guilty to some degree. At best, he is a person of low moral character, either unaware or uncaring of the ways in which his abuse of power and wealth affected the lives of others. At worst, he is a serial sexual predator and quite possibly a rapist. I find it incredibly unlikely that he is completely innocent. I have very low tolerance and sympathy for serial sex offenders. All of the above leads me to this: I find Watson reprehensible, legal status of his cases be damned, because I believe his accusers. If the Bills traded for him, I’d be finding a new team to root for. It’s that simple for me. I could not cheer for a man like this. I am incredibly disgusted by all angles of it, from the Browns’ willingness to trade for and pay Watson, to the NFL and the media’s handling of it, to obviously Watson’s (alleged) conduct itself. Welcome, any and all Browns fans who feel the same.

From a football perspective, it just makes the AFC North as much of a dogfight as the AFC West, and improves the Bills’ yearly chances at the #1 seed that much more. I don’t understand why Watson would rather join that AFC street fight every year than dominate the NFC in a dome. I’m guessing the answer is $$$. More importantly, aside from football: this is gross from every angle. The Browns went about it in a gross way. The fact that they said they wanted “an adult at QB” and then chose WATSON of all people is gross. Paying as much in draft capital and money for someone with 22 sexual harassment/assault cases pending against him is gross. Watson pleading the fifth and then talking about how glad he was that “the truth came out” is gross. He himself is gross. The NFL and it’s media arms’ coverage of all this is gross. If I were a Browns fan before, I wouldn’t be now. Gross.

For what it’s worth, the Cover 1 guys mentioned in last night’s podcast that they’ve heard whispers of a Star Lotulelei retirement coming. When asked in his presser about Star today, Coach McDermott gave a non-committal, vague response of “we’ll see how things go” or something to that effect. Star retiring would certainly explain the mass influx of DT talent, and would allow them to draft a developmental 1T in the middle rounds.

This...this I agree with. They drafted a 5T and tried to turn him into a speed rusher. Doesn't make any sense. His path to a successful career, in my mind, was to build on his strength -- which, as Sierra pointed out, is his literal strength -- and become a Justin Smith type player. Instead, unless things change drastically or he bulks back up, he appears to be on the path to Bustville, which is a shame, because he's got talent.

Anybody who hasn't already watched the Von Miller presser should really do so. Highly, highly impressive. I'm blown away by how highly he speaks of Buffalo, saying it had to be something "really, really special" to pull him away from LA, how highly he speaks of Josh Allen, all of it. Great introduction. It just speaks absolute volumes about how real the culture is and how special what Beane and McDermott have built is.