oldmanfan

I think it would be fine to have him lead the charge. But he asks us to name a player past or present that reps Buffalo more than him? Seriously? I can name a bunch starting with Paul MacGuire and Tom Sektak.

Could be. I don't want to argue over one play. As a rule I respect what you post.

I have a feeling we'll have 5 starters at new positions next year Dawkins to G, maybe Teller moving to the right side), being coached by a new O line coach. Beane and McD have to know they need to protect their potential franchise QB.

You are correct on the four options. One can certainly make a bad decision and then also be inaccurate when you throw the ball. Completion percentage is not an indicator of accuracy. Let me explain why, and why the simplification of statistical analysis leads people astray. Let's take the throw to Clay that you inadvertently omitted. He dropped a well thrown ball. Very accurate. Very precise. Now that turns into a negative on completion percentage and thus negatively skews the data even though it wasn't on Allen. But that's not the only thing you have to consider in trying to statistically analyze QBs. Here's just a few things you'd have to throw into an analysis that could skew your completion percentage data: Weather (lot of wind affects thing) Length of the throw- many college QBs have skewed data because they throw short patterns Quality of your WR corps Quality of defensive backs Offensive scheme How many balls are thrown away to avoid the rush And so on. To really evaluate completion percentages what a statistician would employ is multivariate analysis, and although I have a decent understanding of stats I am nowhere near good enough to figure out how you would set it up. So if we take the game Sunday, and take out the drops and the throwaways (because Allen deliberately wanted to throw incompletions in that case) his completion percentage is in the 60s. That's the mathematical reality, and why I discount that statistic. Now those who don't like Allen will just say that every QB throws balls away, and every QB has dropped passes. Ok, thenshow me the data. Pick another guy or two and see if it's true. Now to accuracy and precision. Ideally a QB is both. Those type guys are in Canton; they fit balls into very tight windows. Allen truly needs to work more on precision; his accuracy is not bad. True he was inaccurate on a couple like the throw to Thompson but most all his throws his receivers get their hands on the ball with opportunities to make a catch. That's accurate, but not as precise as desired. I suspect the next thing that will come up is that he can't improve accuracy. Wrong. That is mechanics, and mechanics can be improved by hard practice and repetition. Allen has shown he can be accurate, what he needs to do is improve his consistency. And that is possible with practice. You play golf? You get better with practice, right? Develop more touch and consistency? Or can your jumper in basketball improve? Yep. So can throwing a ball. I think the primary thing Allen and any young QB needs are: 1. Continued work on mechanics (and that would include working with your receivers constantly to make sure their routes are solid etc- a big reason why Payton and Brady are Payton and Brady) and 2. Getting the game to slow down so you make good reads and you get the ball delivered in time with consistency. What I like over the past couple games is I see Allen hanging in the picket making reads more than earlier in the year. And some of those reads are for him to run. Archuletta made an interesting comment the other day. On one of his long runs he talked about how Allen read the MLB and when he moved laterally Allen knew the middle of the field would be wide open for the run. So I think he'll seeing things more clearly and that's good. Is Allen the answer? I think so, but time will tell. He needs to continue to improve decision making, needs work on those touch passes. Those are all legitimate comments and I think Allen himself would agree. I think what drives me the craziest around here are the pronouncements, like yours, that he is inaccurate and can't improve, or he hasn't shown any improvement, or that he can't ever be an accurate QB. It is simply silly to try and make a definitive judgment like that on any player at any position, much less the most difficult one to play. What I do know right now is Allen brings a rather unique skill set, and when he steps on the field I get the feeling things will happen. And as a fan that's good for me right now.

And I do agree he needs to improve. Why don't you just agree he's a rookie and has shown some pretty good work and development?

No it's not. I agree I am not in Allen's head, but I think he saw a play to make, threw it where he wanted, but had no business throwing it there. The more illustrative would be the pick against the Fish where He tried to hit Benjamin but the DB undercut the route. It was not in any way inaccurate; he threw it right where he wanted to throw the ball. If the route isn't read by the DB the ball is right on target. But it was a bad read, a bad decision. I bring this difference up because you and others keep harping on his completion percentage as being akin to his accuracy, and they are not the same thing.

I reviewed every play last game, and did so with Houston. Listed the Houston ones earlier. Why do I have to use other's data?

I will give you that. If he was trying to throw it out of bounds and went inside then he was way off on accuracy. I just don't think you should confuse poor decision making with accuracy.

He threw it where he wanted to throw it. But he never should have decided to throw it to begin with. accuracy is not decision making, decision making is not accuracy. Too complex for you I guess. Where have I done that. I listed the drops this last game earlier in the thread and elsewhere.

I think we all agree he needs to develop more touch for some throws.

Watch last game. Three at least. Was even worse when Benjamin was short arming everything. The difference between you and I is one of objectivity. I freely acknowledge Allen has a ways to go. He needs to continue working on his shorter passes as an example. But I also see the positives, and I understand the variables that account for this completion percentage stuff. You on the other hand made up your mind the day he was drafted he would not be good, and you either twist data to reach a preconceived conclusion or even worse deliberately misuse things to do the same. Your take on the throw to Clay over the middle Sunday was the most classic of many examples. Hit a guy in the hands in stride but yet you cling to the bizarre notion that somehow Allen was at fault. I mention this a lot but you wanted to trade an entire draft for Jamie's Winston. I think that calls into serious question your opinion on NFL quarterbacking in general. And with Allen it is exacerbated by your desire to be right vs. the desire to have a long term answer for QB. Allen is a rookie with8 games under his belt. He is nowhere near a finished product. Quit treating him like he is.

Sunday the drops would put him at 60%. I already showed you the math earlier this week , but you prefer to think your supposed understanding of QB play trumps the actual numbers.

You are being deliberately obtuse now. Of course he missed some throws. I outlined the ones I thought he missed earlier. You don't understand the difference between ooor throws and poor decisions. It's a simple concept. Why do you ignore that it may happen more frequently with a poorer receiver corps?

You are mixing up accuracy with decision making. Apples and oranges. The decision to make the throw was dumb. Throwing to the area he wanted was accurate. Accurate but stupid. Take the pick he threw against Miami where he didn't see the guy undercut Benjamin's route. Very accurate pass, if the guy doesn't undercut it then he hits Benjamin right in stride. But a poor decision. This isn't that hard to figure out. As I have pointed out more times than I can count to you, the 60% is reached just by guys catching passes that hit them in the hands. If you believe the 60% standing alone is some harbinger of QB wonderfulness, which it likely is not.

Nope. There's a difference between a poor decision and poor accuracy. Both Allen and Darnold made the same dumb rookie decision to throw back into the middle of the field. They each threw it right where they wanted to throw it; problem was they had no business making the throw in the first place. Can't be comparing apples and oranges.

No it's not. He made an absolutely dumb throw, throwing back into the middle of the filed. But accuracy and precision have to do with throwing it to the spot you're targeting. He threw it to the spot he wanted to throw it to, it was just a really dumb decision to want to throw it there.

To say he's a utter failure at passing is stupid and you know it.

I will focus on the ones you thought were bad: 1. diMarco at 2:05 first quarter. Allen was running for his life and tried to set up the screen. Had to throw it over the rushing lineman and thus was a bit high. 2. Clay at 5:41 second quarter: Again a bit high, but if Clay is not held he can go up and get it. Led it away from the defender as he should. 3. The pick: Dumb throw, and he knows it. But accurate, threw it right where he wanted to, again as he's running for his life. 4. McKenzie at 1:27 second quarter. Was it to McKenzie or Foster? Not a great throw. 5. Thompson at 1:12. Maybe his biggest miss of the day. If he leads Thompson correctly there he has open field ahead 6. Third quarter throwaway at 13:34. Was dumping the ball to an open spot; better to throw it out of bounds 7. Third quarter to Ivory at 5:35: When you hit the guy right in the hands not a terrible throw. I think everyone gets that these dump offs are an area for improvement 8. 4th quarter 6:16 to Foster: I see that as an attempt at a back shoulder throw 9. 2:41 to Jones: ball was right on target, but it was late because again he was running for his life. 10. 1:11 to McKensie: Not horrible, a little off 12. Last pick: Trying to make a play downfield with no timeouts left. Not worried about that one. So I see maybe 3-4 balls that really weren't targeted well. I also saw a lot of down field throws that were right on guys and extremely precise. He needs to work on the dump off type throws, but the kind of talent he shows being able to drive the ball downfield with precision will be a real asset. It will allow him to fit the ball into tighter windows than other guys. Now, do we agree about him having a problem with accuracy? No we don't. Because as I pointed out earlier this week you confuse accuracy with two other terms: precision and consistency. Accuracy vs. precision: The classic example is throwing darts at a dart board. Say you consistently are right around the bull's eye, but don't hit it. That means you are accurate, but not precise. Now let's say you're aiming at the bull's eye, but you cluster ten darts two inches to the right of the bull's eye; all right on top of each other. You are precise, but you are not accurate. Allen is accurate on some of the throws above, but he was not precise. He had it n the catch radius of guys, but could use more precision. Many Qbs are like that, but they have WRs that can adjust and make the play anyway. Allen can be more precise to be sure, most Qbs can, but his receivers could also be helping him out more. Consistency is being able to make the same pass to a same target with reproducible precision. Allen like many young QBs will be working on that. Finally, your last statement belies the intent of your post. While I appreciate the effort, when you ask whether one can win with a QB that makes "so many bad throws", when it is not clear that he either did so, or that other Qbs in the league would be less so, it is clear you have an agenda. What you should do is map out some of the younger guys in the league play by play and see how things compare. I think what you'll find is that this 20% number you have thrown out there as a yardstick with no actual data to back it up might be closer to the norm (and not that I agree that Allen was at 20%, but you get the idea).

I appreciate the effort. Just went back through myself and count 5 that were way off. Couple were when he was running for his life and most QBs lose precision under such circumstance. I think we all recognize he needs to develop more touch on shorter routes, which is where most of his misses were. It would be nice if the critics of the kid also had the decency to recognize that with his arm he can and has made throws that very few other guys can make. It would also be nice if people stopped saying he can never be an accurate QB, never lead them to a championship etc. because that is nonsense. No one knows that right now after the kid has played 8 games.

Siran Neal?

One poor flare pass. And of course the picks

Yes it was a bad play and a bad throw. Yes he has to learn from it. No it does not mean he doesn't listen to his coaches. That is just hysteria on your part. So when Goff throws a pick it's receivers, but when Allen does it's on him. OK, right. And to spend a second on your accuracy stuff. To say he has shown no improvement is silly. You like so many others confuse completion percentage with accuracy. I have posted this elsewhere but will do so here so you can learn. Let' say a passer throws 36 passes as Allen did yesterday, and completes 18. That is a 50% completion rate, and to you and others that is somehow construed as the sky is falling, oh my God he's s inaccurate. Now here's where doing some simple math will help you. Multiply 36 x 0.6 (or 60% completion rate). That gives you an answer of 21. Or if he completes three more passes then he hits this magical 60% completion percentage that so many around here are wedded to as some sort of minimal Holy Nirvana of adequacy. Now then: as they say let's go to the tape. First half hits Clay right in the hands for what should have been a big gain. What does Clay do? Drops the ball. Also first half: throws a very shot screen to Shady, who promptly drops the ball (which was probably OK since the play would have been blown up). Then I believe second half, drills the ball right into Zay's chest, and what does Zay do? Drops the ball. Those three catches are made, all of which were accurate passes hitting guys right in the hands, and presto, we have a completion percentage you want. And that doesn't even account for the throwaways when his WRs don't get separation or his O line acts like a sieve. So let's just set this accuracy thing aside once and for all: yes he can improve on things like his shorter routes and yes he can develop more touch, but he is not wildly inaccurate with the ball. Enough already. Young QBs need to develop and Allen is doing so.

Main reason? The defense didn't stop them when it counted. Second, special teams were an abomination. Third, the offense and the young QB made mistakes.

True. Takes a while for many linemen to get it. Hope he's one of them.

This is unadulterated nonsense, and there is far too much of it on this board. He doesn't listen at all to his coaches? Crap. He made a bad play yesterday on that first pick, and now he does not listen to his coaches? You have seen no improvement in accuracy? Also crap. Watch the actual games and see how many times he hits guys right in the hands or the numbers only to see them drop the ball. By the way Goff hasn't looked good the last couple weeks. He threw a couple picks yesterday. Is he boneheaded? Is he not listening to McVey? Danrnold made the same type of throw and got picked yesterday. But he's not boneheaded, is he? No, to you he played better. Allen and Darnold are both young guys with things to learn. So are Goff and Trubiskey. But of course who do some Bills fans single out as the guy who can't cut it? Their own QB. Disgusting.