oldmanfan

The difference between accuracy and precision is an important distinction and affects critical things such as interpretation of laboratory tests and other critical medical data and in a less important area how NFL QBs perform. It is not a pretentious distinction; you call it that because you are clearl wrong on this and you can't stand being called wrong. So you start your snarky crap; did it on the BBMB and do it hear. Try learning something for a change. You should try learning something as well. Allen needs to improve precision, he is pretty accurate.

By indicating accuracy and precision are the same you show your ignorance of statistical concepts. They are different and I will use the dartboard analogy yet again. If you want to hit the bulls eye and throw say 10 darts, if each missed by an inch but surround the bulls eye you are accurate but not precise. If you throw the same The and they hit the exact same point, but that point is three inches away from the target you are precise but not accurate. This is a basic tenet of statistics. QBs throwing passes strive to have both high accuracy and precision. Allen is accurate in that his passes are around his receivers by and large and allow them the opportunity to make a catch. He needs to work on improving precision while also being accurate. And that should come as he gains more experience, makes better reads, and such. We are seeing a young QB making progress his first year. No reason to think he won't continue that especially if he is given more talent around him.

You don't understand statistics. It's very clear from your posts. Most people don't. You're just another guy who cherry picks crap stats to buttress your preconceived notion that Allen won't succeed.

Just one time you should have the sense to admit you're wrong and learn something from others who have a greater understanding of things like statistics, accuracy, etc. You are confusing accuracy and precision, like many. Allen is pretty accurate in that his receivers can make a play on his passes. He needs to be more precise. Really good QBs are both. And to say the pundits are looking at every throw is , to use your favorite word, nonsense. Most of the stuff I read harps on the completion percentage stuff, and even Rodak posted the other day that if you look at the adjusted rate he's middle of the pack. Statistical analysis in general for pro sports is overly simplified and does not use multivariate analysis to take into account the multiple variables that can affect something as simple as whether a pass gets completed or not. And missing Clay by 8 yards is simply silly reasoning. The ball hit him in both hands. Was Clay supposed to just stand still in the back of the end zone, or does he have any responsibility to adjust to the throw. Professional football players are supposed to catch balls that hit them in the hands.

You also continually demonstrate you do not understand what the term accurate means.

Actually he's not. And I and others have explained numerous things the fallacy of completion percentage as a measure of accuracy. But you refuse to accept this because it interferes with your bias that he's bad.

Way to cherry pick quotes.

I like what I see from the kid. The only real criticism I'd have from yesterday is he did that thing again when he was scrambling to his right and threw across his body again towards the middle of the field and almost got picked. He has to stop doing that.

I was astounded McKenzie came back. Thought it was an Achilles for sure. Wonder if Murphy plays next week since they popped it back in.

Good work by the OP. I don't necessarily agree on the interpretation of each throw, but by breaking it down like that it shows Allen is actually pretty accurate. Much better than a cursory look at completion percentage.

If they play any position on offense other than QB I'm all for whomever.

For the first time in a long time I feel like we have a QB that can win us a game in the fourth quarter

That's not how it works. Wait too long you get sacked.

No one was open?

Yep

He took what he thought was a free shot deep. Clearly oddsides

Two teams not afraid to throw at Tre last week and this week. Young man needs to step up. I suspect he will.

This Golliday kid is for real. Any chance he's a FA?

You have to love the kid

Tre is human

Teller needs to keep his head up. Was looking to his right and never saw that guy coming

They punted cause Hauschka is hurt. Wake up folks

Helluva an effort Mills

Your # 1 should demand a double team on every play.

I think Allen probably had more time than he thought and could have set his feet more. And when you say hit him in the numbers, that's all well and good. But how many QBs even when being set with their feet hit a guy right in the numbers from 50 yards away? Very few. Bottom line is Clay has to catch that ball. As for all the stats and junk, as I have pointed out a number of times now, people confuse accuracy and precision. I will mention the dartboard analogy once again. If you surround the bull's eye consistently but don't hit the center of the bull's eye, you are accurate. But you are not precise. If you throw every dart on top of each other, but you are two inches away from the bull's eye, you are precise, but you are not accurate. Allen is pretty accurate; most all his throws are within the catch radius of his receiver where they can make a play. Last game I saw two throws, one to Thompson and one over the middle to Ike, that were truly inaccurate. He like may Qbs could stand to be more precise, while also being accurate. Guys that have high accuracy and high precision are your stars. Now as for this completion percentage stuff, a true statistical interpretation of such would involve adding a lot more variables into the equation than most do. Things like the play call on both sides of the ball, quality of the WR and the DBs playing against such, atmospheric conditions, as just a few. I think it is fairly well established in the college game that many guys have high completion rates because they throw a lot of very short passes to WRs that are better at what they do than the DBs trying to cover. In the pros you have so many different route combinations, preferences of the OCs, etc it's hard to compare. Watching the Bills offense, it seems clear their preference right now is to throw down field a lot more than other teams, and that would of course affect completion percentage. Last game I counted three throw aways and three flat out drops by Allen's receivers, which would have moved his completion rate into the 60's. Which is why using completion rate for some measure of accuracy is a fallacy. You want to assess his accuracy, the best way is to actually look at all his individual throws. He is fairly accurate, but needs to be more precise with placement. The kid, and I emphasize kid, has work to do. Like many young QBs the game has to slow down, and it looks like it is. He seems quicker at making reads now, still needs to work on the correct read of course, and he has thrown some very nice balls the past few weeks. Still misses a few, but all this should improve with time. Unfortunately in a world of Internet and smart phones and drive through McDonald's the impatience of society at large and Bills fans in particular think a kid with 8 games under his bely should already be a mature, finished product.