oldmanfan

I know you won't like hearing this, and I am not doing this just to troll or to be deliberately confrontational, but you keep using the term accurate incorrectly. When you hit guys in the hands and they don't catch the ball, the pass is accurate. I keep trying to tell you, and you keep ignoring, that there is a difference between being accurate and being precise, and when you talk about him being inaccurate what you are really saying is that he is not as precise as you want him to be. And this is not a semantic argument; there is a real difference between the two. If Allen was missing guys by a yard or two where they can't make a play on the ball, then he's not being accurate. And that could be a difficult thing to overcome. When people talk about throwing a ball into a tight window, they are talking about hitting a very small target: That is being precise. When you talk about putting a ball into a receiver's catch radius, maybe not right on his numbers but where the receiver gets his hands on it and can make a play, that's accuracy. The best Qb's have both high accuracy and high precision, and that's what Allen should be striving to achieve. Allen is accurate. He needs to work more on precision when a throw needs to be in a tight window, and he needs to work on consistency as do most young QBs. People need to be, well, more accurate in the terminology they use to evaluate the kid, and more accurate in interpreting the data used to evaluate the kid. The idea that completion percentage is a measure of accuracy has been debunked many times now, and folks need to stop cycling back to it as a valid measure since it does not account for dropped accurate throws, throw aways, and such.

Lot of young guys there.

In Buscaglia's article he says something about wanting t see Allen be 95-100% when in the pocket? He can't possibly mean the kid is supposed to complete 95-100% of passes when he has a clean pocket to throw from? That would be completely unrealistic for any QB.

I see your point. Given that, then would you agree if he is so limited he should be on the bench?

Shaw we usually agree but I can't with this one. You are saying because your TE is not talented it's the QB's fault for not making him so? Doesn't add up for me.

I have commented above on the Clay throw. But to a larger point, if we're going to continue harping on one throw for a rookie QB and think that provides some kind of definitive evidence of his accuracy or lack thereof, this place is going to get ridiculous. and I'm as guilty as the next guy for doing so. I think everyone should be able to agree on the following: 1. He has shown a pretty fair amount of progress since his first start 2. He looks better than most thought he would when he was drafted 3. He has a ways to go and needs to improve in certain areas like touch on passes, reading defenses, being more precise with some throws. 4 . We don't need to be thinking about another QB next year.

I'm sorry but the ball was right at waist level and the guy gets both hands on it. If you're going to say based on that throw that Allen needs to be more accurate (and again people confuse accuracy with precision - that was an accurate throw) then there isn't a QB in the league that can be described as accurate (or more accurately- precise). Rather than say Allen has to adjust to poor receivers, maybe the solution is to have a TE that can make routine catches.

Of course it's speculation. That's what we do here. I ascribe to what my pee wee coach told me in 1963. You get yours hands on it, you should catch it. When A QB hits you in the hands there isn't much more he can do. The pass could have been maybe 6-12 inches more to the right. That's very accurate and pretty precise.

Old habits die hard. The Fish will always be the ones I want to beat most.

Accurate and fairly precise. That is a catch that is made 90% of the time, if not more, by NFL receivers.

Sorry but have to go Fish. I had to watch each loss in the 70's, so to me the Fish will always be the one I hate the most

Yep, I've posted this before. Allen is in the low precision/high accuracy picture on the bottom right. The vast majority of his throws are accurate; they give his receiver the chance to make the catch. But he could be more precise on his throws. Obviously one wants both high precision and high accuracy. That hopefully comes with time.

There is a difference between accuracy and precision. You like so many confuse the two.

Drops by definition means the receiver has the ball hit his hands. Is hitting guys in the hands bad placement?

As I said I applaud your effort to break down each throw and while I may not agree on each interpretation that is a much better way to approach things. I am not trolling by any means. But because I do have I think a better overall idea of statistics than some here I try to point out the errors many commit in using them. My intent is to be educational and if it comes across as confrontational that is not my intent.

I'm sorry you find it tiresome but you refuse to understand the difference between accuracy and precision. Some of the analysis on this will always be subjective; one person might say a pass is way off and another will say it was closer. But confusing accuracy with precision is an important distinction. It's not like Allen routinely misses guys by yards; he needs to work on his precision. i agree everyone is entitled to their opinion and applaud that you break down every pass; that is a much better way of going at analysis vs. just looking blindly at some stat. I do object to people misusing or overinflating stats to support an opinion though. That's my background as a scientist I suppose. I review tons of papers for journals and they commonly get rejected because of inappropriate stats or because of poor study design. I see a lot of that in these Allen threads.

Right. He's got a ways to go and lots to learn. I just get tired of folks trying to misuse data to fit their preconceived notion that he won't cut it. I think any objective analysis of the kid would say he's developing nicely at this point.

He's a 60% completion rate already. Just subtract out his throwaways.

The chart does not show the percentage of each QBs throws that were dropped. Mahomes for example has played 5 more games than Allen I believe. Yet another example around here of throwing out some random stat without a true understanding of its value (or non-value).

You're right, I shared this picture. And Allen fits the high accuracy/low precision. The vast majority of his throws are catchable balls, but could be more precise. In your own thread after the Lions game you could only point out two balls that were truly inaccurate. So you cite data indicating he's accurate but use it to say he's inaccurate. That is why you don't understand the term and why your posts can be discounted. Because you come into the analysis with a foregone conclusion and try to fit your data to that preconceived conclusion.

Great memories of him and his Electric Company mates.

It's too early to know about Rosen or Allen or any of these rookies. But here's my question: why do we insist on making comparisons? Going into the draft one could have made a case for any of the 5 guys drafted in the first round, and history tells us drafting a Qb round 1 gives you around a 50:50 shot at being right. So we took Allen. So far he looks like he might have the goods, but we'll see. If he winds up not being the guy, and say Rosen does, I won't be sitting here crucifying management because of the pick, nor would I crow over it if Allen succeeds and Rosen doesn't. Same with Mahomes; no one (if they're being honest) saw what was coming with him, many saw a kid coming out of a program that had not produced any solid NFL Qbs and with a lot of footwork issues. You take your shot, and you see what happens. You scout the best you can and make the best decision you can. And if GMs make more wrong decisions that right, they lose their jobs. No reason to continually beat the decisions to death IMHO.

Get Rosen some help and I think he'll be fine.

You act like a child. You're shown your wrong on something, then you take your ball and go home. Allen ahs the ball within the catch radius of receivers a lot more than that. You continue to not understand the slightest bit about stats. How many throwaways did he have? Tho

Another one who doesn't understand either physics or statistics. Thanks for playing.