GoBills808

Rat line Do not like

Yeah he looks way more comfortable w protection this year so far Have to think that plays as big a role as anything altho I do think Dorsey is doing a nice job giving him easy answers

LOSE down 3.5 units on the yr thinking Bills-5.5 is a rat line so they'll probably blow Jags out lmfao

want to say offensive line and some pretty bad defenses

🤙So not to get too into the weeds but when I say completions are baked into YPA it's not that they're assigned actual value as you pointed out but rather that the more productive passes should in theory be correlated w a higher YPA...which is why I feel also adding simple completions per attempt into passer rating skews it too hard in that direction Like a completion for zero yards still goes into YPA as 0/attempt you know, it's still there

That's ok but to illustrate my point- passer rating says a completion for -1 yards is more than twice as valuable as an incompletion That's incongruent imo

any/a is the stat i use. I don't know what apya is. Allen was 6th last year behind hurts, tua, mahomes, goff, garoppolo. passer rating would have put him 8th..not a huge difference the point about completions is known...you aren't going to be able to convince me that a completion for zero yards has significantly more value than an incompletion. If you believe it that's fine.

I mean they're not hard to find lol cousins/jefferson, tua/tyreek, stafford/nacua, herbert/allen and stroud/collins

yes they are lol, they're right there. you're just figuring out that maybe they're not as important as you think

Completions are baking into YPA is my point There's no logical reason why a completion should be worth upwards of 20yards when a TD is only worth 80

Passer rating favors completions, not efficiency If they took the completion/attempt out of the equation and left the YPA alone it would be ok, still doesn't account for sacks any/a also has more realistic relative values for TDs and INTs imo

I didn't say it had no flaws

I already said ANY/A is a better metric

ANY/A is the QB stat most correlated w winning which is why among other reasons I prefer it when measuring QB performance So I don't know if ANY/A differential is measured but that's what I would use.

to illustrate why passer rating is hopelessly flawed and too heavily weights completions QB1: 20/40 for 600 yards no TDs or INTS- passer rating of 95.8 QB2: 20/20 for 150 yards no TDs or INTs- passer rating of 97.9 passer rating basically says the inherent value of a completion (for zero yards mind you) is still somehow worth 22.5 yards lol...QB1 is getting 15 yards every time he throws the ball while QB2 gets 7.5

yes correct i was explaining that the EPA of an INT averages a little more than 4pts

a TD is always worth 6 points an INT is NOT always worth -6 points, in fact EPA of an interception is nearer -4.5

it has a ton of flaws first of all it counts completions twice, so essentially passer rating says a completion is worth about 20 yards of offense when we know that most completions go for far less it also penalizes interceptions too heavily...INTs are worth about -100yards according to passer rating and that's simply an inaccurate assessment considering a TD is only worth about 80 you like it and thats fine but saying it doesn't have any flaws is not correct

It's designed (back in the early 1970s mind you) so that each component would be constrained to 2.375 because they had set 1 as the baseline average QB performance...that measures out to a 66.7. That was an average QB performance in 1971 according to passer rating

i prefer ANY/A for QBs personally qb rating has a ton of flaws

TDs/yards and TDs/reception are always going to paint Davis in a favorable light

No doubt...when he let it go I was like holy ***** please Davis squeeze that thing because youre about to catch hold of a hellfire missile 😂😂 I think other QBs can layer that throw in there but nobody else can match that trajectory loved the design and Davis did a great job

yeah this it didn't look nearly as easy for Miami to score their first 14 as it did for the Bills

I hate feeling like Ive seen this movie already😂😂

All Dorsey imo Davis did well to sell the block