GoBills808

that's just not how DBs are taught to play tho

one of the coolest hat trick celebrations ive seen

'hey guys this guy isnt moving! run play' 'wait no now hes moving! never mind! pass play!'

wideouts since time immemorial have been doing this it's not exploitable

if you are a D coordinator telling your guys not to move on a play fake you will be out of a job

are you guys serious lol

It's pretty funny throwing down a perfect game at QB isn't considered playing superhero

What a legend

Exactly

So they're never going to open the bills anything less than 3pt favorites in this one right imo -4.5 is designed to get everyone taking the cheese on Bills which I don't love And it's working..but still early in the week so I might feel better in a couple days who knows full disclosure I am at best a break even NFL gambler😂😂I cannot be held responsible for any losses suffered

Rat line Do not like

Yeah he looks way more comfortable w protection this year so far Have to think that plays as big a role as anything altho I do think Dorsey is doing a nice job giving him easy answers

LOSE down 3.5 units on the yr thinking Bills-5.5 is a rat line so they'll probably blow Jags out lmfao

want to say offensive line and some pretty bad defenses

🤙So not to get too into the weeds but when I say completions are baked into YPA it's not that they're assigned actual value as you pointed out but rather that the more productive passes should in theory be correlated w a higher YPA...which is why I feel also adding simple completions per attempt into passer rating skews it too hard in that direction Like a completion for zero yards still goes into YPA as 0/attempt you know, it's still there

That's ok but to illustrate my point- passer rating says a completion for -1 yards is more than twice as valuable as an incompletion That's incongruent imo

any/a is the stat i use. I don't know what apya is. Allen was 6th last year behind hurts, tua, mahomes, goff, garoppolo. passer rating would have put him 8th..not a huge difference the point about completions is known...you aren't going to be able to convince me that a completion for zero yards has significantly more value than an incompletion. If you believe it that's fine.

I mean they're not hard to find lol cousins/jefferson, tua/tyreek, stafford/nacua, herbert/allen and stroud/collins

yes they are lol, they're right there. you're just figuring out that maybe they're not as important as you think

Completions are baking into YPA is my point There's no logical reason why a completion should be worth upwards of 20yards when a TD is only worth 80

Passer rating favors completions, not efficiency If they took the completion/attempt out of the equation and left the YPA alone it would be ok, still doesn't account for sacks any/a also has more realistic relative values for TDs and INTs imo

I didn't say it had no flaws

I already said ANY/A is a better metric

ANY/A is the QB stat most correlated w winning which is why among other reasons I prefer it when measuring QB performance So I don't know if ANY/A differential is measured but that's what I would use.

to illustrate why passer rating is hopelessly flawed and too heavily weights completions QB1: 20/40 for 600 yards no TDs or INTS- passer rating of 95.8 QB2: 20/20 for 150 yards no TDs or INTs- passer rating of 97.9 passer rating basically says the inherent value of a completion (for zero yards mind you) is still somehow worth 22.5 yards lol...QB1 is getting 15 yards every time he throws the ball while QB2 gets 7.5