MAJBobby

the both say that if he is cut before the first day of the league year it is a total savings. Of the option value. mend of the day he will not be cut and will likely be extended.

Not according to Both sites that track this. Can move on from him for the savings off the option according to SPOTRAC and OTC. According to both sites that track the cap it would be a full savings if cut.

I can understand that, but also he is in the last year of his deal. And IMO has not earned another, that can production can be replaced with a Rookie Contract actually, specially if you are not going to move one of your 10M AAV safeties. I could see them maybe restructuring one of those safeties to free up space. Same with Tre. But I do have to admit this is a little harder to write than I have in previous years when you are able to point to at last half the roster that should not be employed. LMAO

I am getting to them a little early to try and get everyone ready for UFA and such. I will edit them and add more detail as the season ends. I am sure that these will get more detailed. Reason I am talking cutting is there is a savings albiet a smaller one. There are bigger fish to fry for the savings. For example a way to lower the Cap in the Secondary group is to Convert Tres 9.95 base into signing bonus. However I must say kicking the can down the road on an injured player isnt particularly something I would advocate the Bills to do. Issue with the Secondary is they are good and specially at Safety still good but older. there really isn't much we can do here, example trading out a Poyer or Hyde for a UFA does save cap, though you might get younger. The issue still remains three highly paid Starters in terms of Cap. Only place I really see movement in this group and LBers is Drafting a CB2. Though I do think Dane Jackson gets first crack. You will see more scenarios soon enough in DL. As I have done more work on the DL in terms of both UFA and Draft. Stick with me they will get better as I get into the position groups I expect movements in.

Started with Secondary, and the links to the past writeups are included on the bottom of the posts that preceded it. Eventually at the end each post I will try to include the links to all the others as well. Now sticking with Defense, I will move next in the line and that is LBer. This one I am going to admit is hard a bit. I am probably higher on Edmunds than most, however I do feel scheme is a bit of an issue against the Run Game, when we run nickel majority of the time, we can get exposed running. They are better against the run in a true 4-3. So at the end of the day, I think I will trade off performance in the Run Defense game to have better in the pass. I am sure this thread will be mostly about Edmunds or it will turn into that as those start commenting, and I understand that, so without future rambling let’s get to it. The standard disclaimer. I use SPOTRAC for my salary information, I know more like OTC, so numbers might be a little different I just prefer SPOTRAC more. I also use profootball reference for the stats. So here we go… Bills CAP Space: Top 51 = -1.374M Yep Still negative. Linebacker – 6 players on contact taking up 16.01% of CAP, 9th highest in the NFL. Overall, compared to % of the cap and projected spending to be in the top 10 of the leagues they are underperforming. Now I would be not genuine here if I didn’t also say in 2021 they spent in the position at the 11th highest rate of the NFL. So again, I don’t think I am calling the Bills unit a top 11 unit in the league. If it isn’t missed tackles, over pursuits of confusing in Zones, they are solid in pass coverage, however in the Run defense game the missed tackles and over pursuits led to Teams able to gash us regularly. Free Agents EFRA Tyrel Dodson – 24 years old – Yes technically a Free Agent but if the bills want to keep him, they will and there is nothing Dodson can really do about it but sign his tender. So, he will be in Buffalo this coming season (at least though camp). Did not log many snaps on defense this year, with week 13 being the most logged 53% of the defensive snaps. But he was a ST snap eater at every game being over 60% of the ST snaps except for week 13 when he played more defense. He logged 15 tackles (10 Solo and 5 ast) this year. But with the EFRA tender at about 600K he will be back in he Bills uniform. On Contract Tremaine Edmunds, age 24, 6.04 % of cap, 12.716M cap hit (No savings) – So probably will be the most polarizing player in this offseason primer for a couple reasons, one being that option sitting there where it would be a cool 12M in savings moving on from him. I look at another way, that is an area of savings once the extension gets done. But before I get into some of the things he still needs to improve on. He logged 108 tackles (70 solo and 38 ast, 7 TFL, 1 QB hit) and I pick with 4 PD. What is a little concerning is his numbers have across the board got lower each year from his rookie year, but they are not big fluctuations, maybe with more responsibilities hit individual performance slips a bit. But we are either seeing his floor or ceiling (whichever way you want to look at it) which is good enough in the NFL for a starting MLB, but that will also affect what Price I would get to in an extension to be honest. He is the most reliable tackler with a 8.5% missed tackle rate this year. What is interesting is he allowed 78% against when targeted (highest was rookie year 78.5%) and a 106.1 rating when targeted(59 times) (best year was 2019 at 76.3, worst last year at 114.3). His issue that I still see in year 4, is he gets lost in coverage a lot, and over pursues a lot as well. I just do not get it through because by this point there should be less and less of those mistakes. But Teams worry about him, just look at what Salah has said about him, that is evident that teams probably value him higher than the fans. And without knowing full what the responsibilities are for him on a certain play it is hard to say if he was right or not. But having played the position a couple things I notice, he Reads the Back first, instead of the OG-OG-C to the back, so that is why misdirection can get him wrong at times. There are no false steps though I would like to see him be confident in his reads and attack, instead of catch, when he attacks his reads, he looks like the best or one of the best LBers in the game. But he scrapes ad catches a lot more than you would think from a Mike and I must wonder if that is scheme. Now that being said I think a nice 5-year extension is coming this year to lower that cap number. Matt Milano, age 27, 4.79% of cap, 10.095M cap hit (No Savings) – His new contract is interesting with a nice out at the end of this year with Big savings. But there is nothing savings wise for a cut only a restructure. There was not a lot if any drop off from Milano after being paid, One thing to be really happy about was his health this year, missing just one. His numbers are 5PD, 86 tackles (57 Solo, 29 ast, 15 TFL, 6 QB hits). Missed tackles where better this year with a career best of 11.3%. I wish I could put his instincts to attack the line in Edmunds but that can still be taught to Edmunds. Issues with Milano remain he has a hard time at times getting through the wash, he does get washed out a lot. Also it really seems his missed tackles show up at the wrong times and are magnified a bit because they come in what seems like big moments. But that being said I am fine with Milanos play this year, as everything number wise has improved (except his pass defense splash plays, but that is fine). He allowed a career best of 55.2% completion when targeted, and a 71.9 rating when targeted (58 times). Those numbers tell me better in pass coverage than Edmunds, which I think we all knew that from him anyway. A.J Klein, age 31, 2.65% against cap, 5.57M cap hit (5.1M savings) – This one really bothers me a bit, because when he is on the field in that traditional 4-3 SLB our run defense is better, but he gets exposed in the passing game. Now the issue becomes that exact problem with the Nickel Base, he is a luxury at that cap number based on the % snaps played. However here are his numbers, 1 Pick, 5 PD, 1 Fr, 5 tackles (29 solo, 6 ast, 4 TFL). When targeted (25 times) he let up a 64.0% complete and a rating of 63.1. There is my issue with Klein, not so much his play but the lack of playing time. Are the numbers lower because of the lack of playing time (hiding him) or should he be playing more. At the cap number when you are starting to get tight against the cap those are things to look at. I personally think his role can be filled by Dodson or a rookie at this point and save the 5M and spend it elsewhere and that is really nothing against Klein (he probably has trade value) and more against the scheme and how we use him. Tyler Matakevich, age 30, 1.54% against cap, 3.25M in cap hit (2.5M in savings) – Special Teams snap eater. Which is what you want from your depth LBers and I think I am ok with him in that role, but I am not sure I am ok at his cap number. When we start looking at though that ONLY contribute on ST, I think you would see a high number of cap allocated to that unit compared to the rest of the league however my tools do not do that, maybe I will make a tool that does down the line. But you add him, Jones, Neal Smith could go on there are a lot of ST only players still, that would be fine if they were in cheap contracts. Andre Smith, age 25, 0.59% against cap, 1.251M in cap hit, (1.126M in savings) – See Tyler and you have about the same writeup here, just younger and cheaper. Joe Giles-Harris, age 25, 0.39% against cap, 825k in cap hit (825K in savings) – PS player signed to a futures contract. Notable top UFAs De’Vondre Campbell, GB Don’ta Hightower, NE Foyesade Oluokun, ATL Leighton Vander Esch, DAL Anthony Barr, MIN Initial Draft Look with Initial Grades (no particular order and nowhere ready to really discuss draft) Round 1 Devin Lloyd, LB, 6’3’, 232 Utah To be honest here, I still have not even started to look at LBers yet in the draft, It is either because I like our LBers (most likely or the LBer class just didnt wow me to take early impressions. Past Writeups Secondary

I think a 1.75M would be fine for Neal. That I think is right around where the Vet Min would be for him. it will be interesting to watch Beane navigate the Cap now that we have a QB paid elite money. And how the Bills handle recruiting for those players near the end of their careers willing to give discounts for a run that happens with Elite QBs

Why can Stevenson not be that player.

Ahhh the offseason of the NFL when players Social Media accounts Activity become huge news. Missed this time of year.

Only name on the list I would entertain is Toney but will never happen so no reason to even entertain that. If he is not Hurt yet again maybe.

Haven’t watched anything with this thing called the Pro Bowl in over a Decade. A complete waste of my time. olympic curling on Sunday was more entertaining for me to watch.

Draft another mid to late round QB and there is your QB2. That you can then flip in 3 years for assets. time to get in the QB flipping business. Allen is the “Vet” QB on this roster. Nothing more than Rollie Contracts for that BU.

I get the concept with Poyer and Hyde. The practice of extending older players to lessen cap I never liked. Eventually that piper will always come to collect. but in concept this Secondary needs youth and speed I do think the easy answer is your starting 4 look like this (with no adjustments in Contracts) CB1 White CB2 Dane Jackson/ Rookie S Poyer S Hyde add a rookie in the mix if you want to hedge against Johnson or Hamlin. but when doing this just for Secondary (LBers next) I get a feeling a lot of fan favs are going to be moving on in the near future. Hopefully Vets are going to be willing to play with Allen for the shot at a championship like they have historically with top end QBs. That will help some of the cap tightness Beane and Co are going to have to navigate.

I agree. I dont think Bills will move on from Poyer, and I dont think I would fully support it, but I know he is another year older, issues with angles and speed and tackling cropped up again that was gone the previous two years, but were prevalent in year one here, and in CLE. But there is nothing behind him or Hyde really at this point. But we have to start thinking about it, and there are safeties in the draft I would love to get in the mix, because we are going to get to a point where 2 10M plus safeties is un doable financially in the future IMO.

Poyers play was not good (IMO), with the exception of the picks, and those flash stats get his post season accolades. Also reason I think Johnson was passed over is Hamlin as a rookie was taking the field more than he was. And when looking for shrewd CAP moves, he would be one of them. I will admit he is a high snap count ST player. Issue becomes when you are paying your QB you cannot have 4 Gunners only that are paid in the millions. One other thing to note. With the money tied into the secondary I think it is money in money out on them. So if you want a UFA Top CB than you lose one of your 10M safeties. Otherwise this group is addressed in the draft IMO

Is McD going to change his Cover 3 mentality?

I agree. I think this is a prime position group for a Premier Draft Asset used (1st or 2nd) round.

Now on a SIDE NOTE. I definitely would bring Hughes back at the projection SPOTRAC has on him at 3.3M AAV

Dane Jacksons performance allows to move on from Paying Levi 10M AAV. Replace this position in the Draft.

Well, it is another offseason, after a disappointing loss in the playoffs. Now that being said It is time to get everyone ready for the offseason. Knowing our window is wide open if 17 is behind center I take solace in that fact and makes these offseason primers a little easier for me to write. Like always this is my own thinking, and I will not really get into draft picks or even UFAs at this point, more as a philosophy in where I would look to put those offseason assets into. Doesn’t make sense to really do UFAs until after the Tags are given out, but I may list just a couple if I decide to address thee Position Group in UFA same with Draft. They will likely be broken into tiers if I do list UFAs or prospects. Like Always I will link the writeups of the position groups that I have already done in the bottom. I normally have routinely started with the Offensive Side so I think I will switch it up and go Defense first this year, but as always if you all request a position group, I will work that. I use SPOTRAC for my salary information, I know more like OTC, so numbers might be a little different I just prefer SPOTRAC more. I also use profootball reference for the stats. So here we go… Hope you enjoy these primers, flame away. Bills CAP Space: Top 51 = -1.374M So obviously there is some work to do with this so keeping that in mind when I write the numbers. Secondary – 12 players on contact taking up 23.13% of CAP, 6th highest in the NFL. Overall, as a whole, I do think this is a area of a sneaky priority need. I know we had the No 1 passing Defense in the league but at the same time you must look at the QBs that we played to get there. I know you do not pick your schedule but cannot just spout the top defense without putting that in context. And I know I may get flamed for some of what I write in these and that is OK I am always willing to learn more. Safety – 5 players, 23.67M in cap charges, 11.25% of the Bills cap. UFAs Siran Neal – 27 years old – While I like Siran in the role he plays, that Role also doesn’t warrant a big money contract. If I can get him back in the fold for Veteran Minimum, I would do that, if not I move on. Cannot pay decent money to a role player that would be replaced by a rookie or someone already on the roster. So, anything more than a Veteran Min I move on. On Contract Jordan Poyer, age 31, 5.12% of cap, 10.78M cap hit (7.176M in savings) – I start with Poyer, 2022 is his last year of his contract. I would start with Poyer’s play imo fell off this year, however that being said he is still a productive player, I think this is an extension candidate add a couple years and lower the 2022 cap hit. But also at the same time could be a player that couple be traded I would think the Age and contract he still couple pull a 3rd at worst. These are the tough decisions once you pay a QB it is hard to have two plus 10M cap hit players at Safety. Now he did make 1st team All Pro and tied his career high in picks with 5. He also added 3 sacks (Career High), 93 total tackles (66 solo, 27 ast, and 8 TFL). The tackle numbers overall are down, TFL was almost tying his career high (9). The bad angle thing that he has had at times in his career popped up again along with his missed tackles rate was way up again (11.4%, 12 total missed), in context his last two years was sub-10, and first year with the Bills was 13%. He had his best opposing rating against in his career at 42.2 and lowest TDs against at 1. It wasn’t the pass game that he struggled it was his run support and tackling. I think I would add a 2-year extension with a void year to get the cap hit down. But got to start thinking about replacing one, hard to pay a Top QB and then have two 10M plus Safeties. Micah Hyde, age 32, 4.84% of cap, 10.2M cap hit (5.2M in savings) – Hyde is like Poyer in that Beane set it up that one could be moved on from if needed and Hamlin flashed enough in his time to make that a conversation at OBD. I do think though older if more important to this defense than Poyer is. Made the All-Pro list for his second time in Buffalo. Numbers are 5 Picks (tied career high), 1 FF, 2 FR, 74 total tackles (53 solo, 21 ast, 4 TFL), these tackle numbers are pretty much consistent with his career numbers. He had a 72.8 rating against when targeted, and had a 12.9% missed tackle rate, but our safeties struggled this year tackling, But Hyde’s missed rate is right in line with his career missed rate as well. What he does bring that Poyer also doesn’t is his Punt Catching skill. Maybe the bills do nothing here and just, but with both starting safeties on wrong side of 30 already something needs to be done in this area in the offseason. Jaquan Johnson, age 27, 0.48% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (965K savings) – I think this would be an easy 1M savings, just never really progressed from his draft year, and is on the final year of the rookie deal. I think Hamlin has passed him in rotation so this would be the type of shrewd moves you have to make when paying a top QB. His numbers are 1 Pick, 14 Tackles (8 solo and 6 ast) and that is with 1 game logging 100% of the safety snaps, 5 more games well over 10% of the defensive snaps. He does play over 60% of the ST snaps but is nothing special. I would move on and save the close to 1M in cap. Damar Hamlin, age 24, 0.41% against cap, 865K in cap hit (744K in savings) – As a rookie you should be happy with the results of him when he was on the field. I do not think he has forced the issue regarding Poyer or Hyde but has forced the issue with Johnson though. Not much in terms of numbers 2 PD, 2 Tackles (both solo). Also plays special teams. I do think if you want to save a quick Mil in savings, Hamlin takes over Johnson’s role and Johnson is cut. Josh Thomas, age 26, 0.39% against cap, 825K in cap hit, (825K in savings) – PS player signed to a futures deal. Corner – 7 players, 25.03M in cap charges, 11.89% of the Bills Cap UFAs Levi Wallace – Cap Hit Last year 1.75M, Projected Cap Hit on new deal – 9.6M – This is going to be a hard one, because at first glance he played his best season, even more evident when Tre went down. Here is the problem also as he made himself a lot of money this season. 56 total tackles (2nd best in career) 47 solo and 11 ast, 1 TFL. Also, he added 2 picks and a FR. Allowed the lowest rating again in his career this yar at 72.6 rating and a missed tackle rat of 10.8%. This is the hard one for me. In theory I would not want him to leave, but then again at 10M a year, I am not sure I want to go that high. Personally, I could go either way with Levi this offseason. On Contract Tre White – age 27, 7.79% of cap, 16.4M cap hit (No Savings) – White is a stud, and is not going anywhere, however his ACL injury and no real No 2 on roster at this point I think it becomes a position group of need in the offseason. I would rather address this position in the draft with a top CB if one were there in the first round. Before INJ he was on track to gain another Pro Bowl, and All Pro. ONLY issue I saw in Tre’s game this year was missed tackles, and that also was evident in the numbers of a 19.6% missed tackle rate. But rest right in line with 2019 and was trending better than 2020. Allowed a 51.6% completion rate (2019 best year at 50%), lowest yards per completion in his career at 9.9, lowest yards per target at 5.1, Rating against was 59.9, for second best (best year 2019 was 43.3). If the ACL doesn’t limit him going forward and only thing, I would hedge against he still as elite this year. Taron Johnson – age 26, 2.14% of cap, 4.5M Cap hit (No Savings) – Taron is a top nickel and is now paid like one, with him being paid I think that choice he was paid it tells me Levi likely will not. What is interesting about Taron is that the Bills have an out after the 2022 season. But I expect at his he plays out this contract if he continues to stay healthy. 76 total tackles, (53 solo, 23 ast) and 3 QB hits. He also added 1 Pick and 1 FF. He had career high 55.1% Completion % against, and his second best in his career of 75.5 rating against. Dane Jackson – age 26, 0.43% of cap, 895K Cap hit. (895K savings) – Since week 13 was hovering around 100% snap count, and at above 60% in a couple other games as well. He had 41 total tackles (33 Solo, 8 ast) and a single TFL, 6 PDs. 50% completion percentage against when targeted, and a 70.2 rating against. I think what he showed at the end of the season is why the Bills will let Levi walk, and slide Dane into that CB2 slot, (unless we draft a high-end rookie). I was happy with his play as I looked at him once he got those snaps when Tre went down. Cam Lewis – age 25, 0.44% of cap 925K Cap Hit (895K savings) – Not enough to really say there is anything there besides what he has been a PS player. Tim Harris – age 26, 0.43% of cap, 895K Cap Hit (895K savings) – Former Brown on Futures Deal. Olaijah Griffen – age 23, 0.33% of cap, 705K cap hit (705K savings) – PS player last year not enough to see if anything is there. Nick McCloud – age 24, 0.3% of cap, 705K cap hit (705k savings) – Futures Deal Notable top 5 UFAs Safety Marcus Williams, NO Tyrann Mathieu, KC Jessie Bates III, Cincy Marcus Maye, NYJ Quandre Diggs, SA Corner J.C. Jackson, NE Stephon Gilmore, CAR Carlton Davis, TB Darious Williams, LAR Casey Hayward Jr. Vegas Initial Draft Look with Initial Grades (no particular order and nowhere ready to really discuss draft) Round 1 Kyle Hamilton, S, 6’4” 210, ND Ahmad Gardner, CB, 6’2” 190, Cincy Derek Stingley Jr, CB, 6’1”, 200, LSU Andrew Booth Jr., CB, 6’0”, 195, Clemson Roger McCreary, CB, 6’0” 193, Auburn Round 2 Kyler Gordon, CB, 6’0”, 200, Washington Martin Emerson, CB, 6’2 195, Miss St. Daxton Hill, S, 6’0”, 195, Michigan Lewis Cine, S, 6’1”, 190, Georgia Jalen Pitre, S, 6’3”, 198, Baylor Jaquan Brisker, S, 6’1”, 210, Penn St Trent McDuffie, CB, 5’11” 190, Washington

If he doesn’t time to move on. Anuko (spelling) or a Rookie DT would replace the production in a smaller contract. we paid Josh. Time to start removing the bloated contracts on older declining players.

Re-sign him now don’t wait it will be cheaper. If you wait until 22 get ready to pay like a top 3 TE

Star is a perfect take a paycut and reduce cap number OR get cut and replaced by a Rookie DT.

Honestly do not have much of a take on this one. Do not know him. Will have to read the thread as I am sure there are some that do.

Now Three. Browns Broncos and MIA

Yep it is. And if you remember during the concussion stuff Congress did have hearings. On the Anti Trust protections. There are people sitting in those chambers that do want to yank those protections and this gives them another thread to pull.