MAJBobby

Poyers play was not good (IMO), with the exception of the picks, and those flash stats get his post season accolades. Also reason I think Johnson was passed over is Hamlin as a rookie was taking the field more than he was. And when looking for shrewd CAP moves, he would be one of them. I will admit he is a high snap count ST player. Issue becomes when you are paying your QB you cannot have 4 Gunners only that are paid in the millions. One other thing to note. With the money tied into the secondary I think it is money in money out on them. So if you want a UFA Top CB than you lose one of your 10M safeties. Otherwise this group is addressed in the draft IMO

Is McD going to change his Cover 3 mentality?

I agree. I think this is a prime position group for a Premier Draft Asset used (1st or 2nd) round.

Now on a SIDE NOTE. I definitely would bring Hughes back at the projection SPOTRAC has on him at 3.3M AAV

Dane Jacksons performance allows to move on from Paying Levi 10M AAV. Replace this position in the Draft.

Well, it is another offseason, after a disappointing loss in the playoffs. Now that being said It is time to get everyone ready for the offseason. Knowing our window is wide open if 17 is behind center I take solace in that fact and makes these offseason primers a little easier for me to write. Like always this is my own thinking, and I will not really get into draft picks or even UFAs at this point, more as a philosophy in where I would look to put those offseason assets into. Doesn’t make sense to really do UFAs until after the Tags are given out, but I may list just a couple if I decide to address thee Position Group in UFA same with Draft. They will likely be broken into tiers if I do list UFAs or prospects. Like Always I will link the writeups of the position groups that I have already done in the bottom. I normally have routinely started with the Offensive Side so I think I will switch it up and go Defense first this year, but as always if you all request a position group, I will work that. I use SPOTRAC for my salary information, I know more like OTC, so numbers might be a little different I just prefer SPOTRAC more. I also use profootball reference for the stats. So here we go… Hope you enjoy these primers, flame away. Bills CAP Space: Top 51 = -1.374M So obviously there is some work to do with this so keeping that in mind when I write the numbers. Secondary – 12 players on contact taking up 23.13% of CAP, 6th highest in the NFL. Overall, as a whole, I do think this is a area of a sneaky priority need. I know we had the No 1 passing Defense in the league but at the same time you must look at the QBs that we played to get there. I know you do not pick your schedule but cannot just spout the top defense without putting that in context. And I know I may get flamed for some of what I write in these and that is OK I am always willing to learn more. Safety – 5 players, 23.67M in cap charges, 11.25% of the Bills cap. UFAs Siran Neal – 27 years old – While I like Siran in the role he plays, that Role also doesn’t warrant a big money contract. If I can get him back in the fold for Veteran Minimum, I would do that, if not I move on. Cannot pay decent money to a role player that would be replaced by a rookie or someone already on the roster. So, anything more than a Veteran Min I move on. On Contract Jordan Poyer, age 31, 5.12% of cap, 10.78M cap hit (7.176M in savings) – I start with Poyer, 2022 is his last year of his contract. I would start with Poyer’s play imo fell off this year, however that being said he is still a productive player, I think this is an extension candidate add a couple years and lower the 2022 cap hit. But also at the same time could be a player that couple be traded I would think the Age and contract he still couple pull a 3rd at worst. These are the tough decisions once you pay a QB it is hard to have two plus 10M cap hit players at Safety. Now he did make 1st team All Pro and tied his career high in picks with 5. He also added 3 sacks (Career High), 93 total tackles (66 solo, 27 ast, and 8 TFL). The tackle numbers overall are down, TFL was almost tying his career high (9). The bad angle thing that he has had at times in his career popped up again along with his missed tackles rate was way up again (11.4%, 12 total missed), in context his last two years was sub-10, and first year with the Bills was 13%. He had his best opposing rating against in his career at 42.2 and lowest TDs against at 1. It wasn’t the pass game that he struggled it was his run support and tackling. I think I would add a 2-year extension with a void year to get the cap hit down. But got to start thinking about replacing one, hard to pay a Top QB and then have two 10M plus Safeties. Micah Hyde, age 32, 4.84% of cap, 10.2M cap hit (5.2M in savings) – Hyde is like Poyer in that Beane set it up that one could be moved on from if needed and Hamlin flashed enough in his time to make that a conversation at OBD. I do think though older if more important to this defense than Poyer is. Made the All-Pro list for his second time in Buffalo. Numbers are 5 Picks (tied career high), 1 FF, 2 FR, 74 total tackles (53 solo, 21 ast, 4 TFL), these tackle numbers are pretty much consistent with his career numbers. He had a 72.8 rating against when targeted, and had a 12.9% missed tackle rate, but our safeties struggled this year tackling, But Hyde’s missed rate is right in line with his career missed rate as well. What he does bring that Poyer also doesn’t is his Punt Catching skill. Maybe the bills do nothing here and just, but with both starting safeties on wrong side of 30 already something needs to be done in this area in the offseason. Jaquan Johnson, age 27, 0.48% against cap, 1.01M cap hit (965K savings) – I think this would be an easy 1M savings, just never really progressed from his draft year, and is on the final year of the rookie deal. I think Hamlin has passed him in rotation so this would be the type of shrewd moves you have to make when paying a top QB. His numbers are 1 Pick, 14 Tackles (8 solo and 6 ast) and that is with 1 game logging 100% of the safety snaps, 5 more games well over 10% of the defensive snaps. He does play over 60% of the ST snaps but is nothing special. I would move on and save the close to 1M in cap. Damar Hamlin, age 24, 0.41% against cap, 865K in cap hit (744K in savings) – As a rookie you should be happy with the results of him when he was on the field. I do not think he has forced the issue regarding Poyer or Hyde but has forced the issue with Johnson though. Not much in terms of numbers 2 PD, 2 Tackles (both solo). Also plays special teams. I do think if you want to save a quick Mil in savings, Hamlin takes over Johnson’s role and Johnson is cut. Josh Thomas, age 26, 0.39% against cap, 825K in cap hit, (825K in savings) – PS player signed to a futures deal. Corner – 7 players, 25.03M in cap charges, 11.89% of the Bills Cap UFAs Levi Wallace – Cap Hit Last year 1.75M, Projected Cap Hit on new deal – 9.6M – This is going to be a hard one, because at first glance he played his best season, even more evident when Tre went down. Here is the problem also as he made himself a lot of money this season. 56 total tackles (2nd best in career) 47 solo and 11 ast, 1 TFL. Also, he added 2 picks and a FR. Allowed the lowest rating again in his career this yar at 72.6 rating and a missed tackle rat of 10.8%. This is the hard one for me. In theory I would not want him to leave, but then again at 10M a year, I am not sure I want to go that high. Personally, I could go either way with Levi this offseason. On Contract Tre White – age 27, 7.79% of cap, 16.4M cap hit (No Savings) – White is a stud, and is not going anywhere, however his ACL injury and no real No 2 on roster at this point I think it becomes a position group of need in the offseason. I would rather address this position in the draft with a top CB if one were there in the first round. Before INJ he was on track to gain another Pro Bowl, and All Pro. ONLY issue I saw in Tre’s game this year was missed tackles, and that also was evident in the numbers of a 19.6% missed tackle rate. But rest right in line with 2019 and was trending better than 2020. Allowed a 51.6% completion rate (2019 best year at 50%), lowest yards per completion in his career at 9.9, lowest yards per target at 5.1, Rating against was 59.9, for second best (best year 2019 was 43.3). If the ACL doesn’t limit him going forward and only thing, I would hedge against he still as elite this year. Taron Johnson – age 26, 2.14% of cap, 4.5M Cap hit (No Savings) – Taron is a top nickel and is now paid like one, with him being paid I think that choice he was paid it tells me Levi likely will not. What is interesting about Taron is that the Bills have an out after the 2022 season. But I expect at his he plays out this contract if he continues to stay healthy. 76 total tackles, (53 solo, 23 ast) and 3 QB hits. He also added 1 Pick and 1 FF. He had career high 55.1% Completion % against, and his second best in his career of 75.5 rating against. Dane Jackson – age 26, 0.43% of cap, 895K Cap hit. (895K savings) – Since week 13 was hovering around 100% snap count, and at above 60% in a couple other games as well. He had 41 total tackles (33 Solo, 8 ast) and a single TFL, 6 PDs. 50% completion percentage against when targeted, and a 70.2 rating against. I think what he showed at the end of the season is why the Bills will let Levi walk, and slide Dane into that CB2 slot, (unless we draft a high-end rookie). I was happy with his play as I looked at him once he got those snaps when Tre went down. Cam Lewis – age 25, 0.44% of cap 925K Cap Hit (895K savings) – Not enough to really say there is anything there besides what he has been a PS player. Tim Harris – age 26, 0.43% of cap, 895K Cap Hit (895K savings) – Former Brown on Futures Deal. Olaijah Griffen – age 23, 0.33% of cap, 705K cap hit (705K savings) – PS player last year not enough to see if anything is there. Nick McCloud – age 24, 0.3% of cap, 705K cap hit (705k savings) – Futures Deal Notable top 5 UFAs Safety Marcus Williams, NO Tyrann Mathieu, KC Jessie Bates III, Cincy Marcus Maye, NYJ Quandre Diggs, SA Corner J.C. Jackson, NE Stephon Gilmore, CAR Carlton Davis, TB Darious Williams, LAR Casey Hayward Jr. Vegas Initial Draft Look with Initial Grades (no particular order and nowhere ready to really discuss draft) Round 1 Kyle Hamilton, S, 6’4” 210, ND Ahmad Gardner, CB, 6’2” 190, Cincy Derek Stingley Jr, CB, 6’1”, 200, LSU Andrew Booth Jr., CB, 6’0”, 195, Clemson Roger McCreary, CB, 6’0” 193, Auburn Round 2 Kyler Gordon, CB, 6’0”, 200, Washington Martin Emerson, CB, 6’2 195, Miss St. Daxton Hill, S, 6’0”, 195, Michigan Lewis Cine, S, 6’1”, 190, Georgia Jalen Pitre, S, 6’3”, 198, Baylor Jaquan Brisker, S, 6’1”, 210, Penn St Trent McDuffie, CB, 5’11” 190, Washington

If he doesn’t time to move on. Anuko (spelling) or a Rookie DT would replace the production in a smaller contract. we paid Josh. Time to start removing the bloated contracts on older declining players.

Re-sign him now don’t wait it will be cheaper. If you wait until 22 get ready to pay like a top 3 TE

Star is a perfect take a paycut and reduce cap number OR get cut and replaced by a Rookie DT.

Honestly do not have much of a take on this one. Do not know him. Will have to read the thread as I am sure there are some that do.

Now Three. Browns Broncos and MIA

Yep it is. And if you remember during the concussion stuff Congress did have hearings. On the Anti Trust protections. There are people sitting in those chambers that do want to yank those protections and this gives them another thread to pull.

Does any of those Gates include payments for FIXING games?

Don’t care either way. I do know this is the carrot that those in Congress that want to pull them will use.

These are the exact reasons why the NFL avoided Vegas and Sport Betting like the plague. their Greed got the better of them now they will see the consequences of Game fixing.

Yep agree. A single allegation can be swept away. Two not so much. Congress has been looking to pull the anti trust protections from the NFL. Here is their carrot. And Jackson???

Should look into game fixing. And yep the Same RICO laws that went against the Mob for game fixing can be used here. the NFL has an issue they have to fix. Also I can already incision the Anti Trust hearings in Congress going after those protections if this is found legit.

Yep which makes it a Federal Offense.

Not needed for position coaches.

I see it is starting to Mushroom. Hugh Jackson now saying he was paid to lose. FO was paid to lose. And has the payments to prove it. this is NOT going to end well for NFL. get ready for the Lottery in the draft that will come soon enough with these.

OL coach is it I believe.

Burrows OC at LSU. Was my dark horse to replace Daboll. Burrow got the first overall pick with his work with Brady. Getting him as QB coach is amazing hire. see what happens when you have an elite QB. Coaches want to be associated with them.

Why they complied with the Rooney Rule. only person IMO that is going to face fallout from this is Stephen Ross

Interviewed 2 to be exact to get in compliance to the Rooney Rule.

Scorched earth lawsuit. Forces settlement as NFL doesn’t want the tampering and paying to lose to get to discovery.