MAJBobby

Buh bye Feliciano and Williams. going to anticipate a lot of changes for when I get to my OL write up.

Can understand that. And Hughes has the same flaws as well. I really think Bills would want to bring one of the Two back. It probably is Hughes (if he doesn’t retire). Some comments bold and inline.

It will be interesting to see if the Bills get the Patriots treatment when it comes to Free Agency where players take less to come for the shot at their ring. Something I will get into later in the month when I do the UFA primer. I wonder though at least with WRs and weapons they tell agents yeah I will take less to play with Allen. Or if is actually going to take that first Trophy before players start offering discounts to play in WNY. I think this offseason will tell us a little about that.

It might be high. Was trying to find good comps to get me a range there.

Cool you can read stats. Sorry guess what Stats don’t do? Tell you what responsibilities are placed on a player so are those Bills players liars? Ask the untouchable HC? Or guess we can blame Frazier their too.

So does Milano get the same grief from posters here for the same Issues. The missed tackles. The lost in zones the over runs the inability to get off Blocks? or is it just Edmunds that get those criticisms?

At no point in my review did I ever call Edmunds Elite. However I also know he does have much more responsibilities than a traditional MIke. (bills players have said as much). I also have said he is a top 15 MIke. Which he is. So against a nice 4 year 44M extension is a good number for him this summer. The defense gets worse without Him at MIke.

Milano makes the same mistakes as often as Edmunds does from the easiest LBer position to play. And he his talked about as an elite LBer around here. edmunds has more on his plate with these defense. Makes the same mistakes Milano does and is talked like he is trash. Reality is Bills players have talked about all Edmunds responsibilities and how much he is asked to do. Why does the coaching staff put so many responsibilities on a “trash” player.

So you are telling me that White and Bruce couldn’t get pressure without Blitzes? That they couldn’t win their one matchups and get pressure with 4? I seriously think you need to go back and watch Bruce and White.

Would probably be about 10M on a one year deal. I think Hughes or Addison would bring better value there. Though the more I think about this after posting this post Addison likes does get paid and leaves teams will see his Sack Numbers and pay. that is why I think Hughes re-sign in the 3-4M range would be ideal (If Hughes doesn’t retire).

Yep has been gone long ago. Watch the Bills. That is it. SuperBowl ignored the entire game except for the Halftime show. I have become more interested in the Offseason, Draft, Cap etc. that all fascinates me. Maybe because of 2 decades of Suck that is what I looked forward too so became passionate about it. but watching other games besides the Bills nope couldn’t care less

Yep go get a legit DT and Edmunds plays much better (already better than Milano) particularly against the Run. But man Milano can do no wrong with this Edmunds mob. the reality is Edmunds is a better LBer. The league sees it (See Salah) and the Bills see it. Look for an Edmunds extension this summer.

Give me the Lombardi. kick cans down the road I don’t care if I have a year like Saints are about to coming up to reset as long as their is at least one Lombardi at OBD.

He is a better LBer than Milano. yes Bills should extend him. There is So much on his plate and gets little to no help from the DTs. remember Ray Lewis without DTs eating his blocks and making him fight blocks off. he is a top 15 MIke. In a league that needs both LBers to run sideline to sideline. So a 10-12M extension is fine for him. No one is saying he is worth the highest paid MIke in the league. sad thing Franchise Tag next year is not possible with him because of the Edge LBer getting lumped in there too.

I think he stays where he is at. Hard to really do UFAs right now when season just ended. Will get into my UFA primer by early March once Tag Deadline Ends (March 8th).

Appreciate it. Love doing them they get me ready for the offseason. Moving to Offense next. Then Teams. Then I likely will even do a UFA preview which also will be fed not only from my initial thinkings in these position groups but also take the comments of those that take the time to offer their ideas as well. But I must admit listening to the Cover 1 cap spectacular gave me ideas for pay cuts I didn’t really think about when looking at these write ups. More just cutting or restructures. I am hoping to have the next one done tomorrow. Should be the easiest to write with QB LMAO. Yeah was surprised when I saw Hughes is routinely in the 20% range with missed tackles that has been going higher each year. Willis I haven’t watched a lot of him. I think though he would be more of a Base End. Good against run doesn’t offer much in pass rush. I get worried when I see pass rushers that do not have high sack numbers which he doesn’t have but also doesn’t even have high QB hurry numbers and that would worry me when buying a pass rusher.

That 40M off the books still leaves a -1.3M cap space. Already accounted for in active contracts. So going to buy a DE (which is fine) gonna still have to find the money.

Loved the Discussion on Edmunds. So far I am on board with what I heard and that was a single Diggs restructure (but only at Edmunds at this point)

I think if I am getting Key I would move on from Addison. However he was the most productive DE IMO. That is all. Comments inline and bold I think the DT is going to come from the Draft IMO. buying sacks from the Interior gets expensive

Started with Secondary and Linebackers, and the links to the past writeups are included on the bottom of the posts that preceded it. Now staying with the defense, I will go to the DL. This is a position group that I think could be some movement into So it might get longer and a bit more detailed than the LBer and Secondary (where I think the Bills will likely not see as areas for major upgrade (I would in the Secondary, but I am trying to think like the Bills). So with the Heavy Rotation we play in the DL, I do think they will not go and try and trade for a premier pass rusher, or even sign one. But I will run the different types of Ideas, just know they run a heavy rotation in this position groups which to me leads to more middle tier UFAs in that Role or Draft picks. I Would LOVE a premier pass rusher though to pair with the promising Rookie play (They need to take a Big Step). So without further rambling lets get into it. The standard disclaimer. I use SPOTRAC for my salary information, I know more like OTC, so numbers might be a little different I just prefer SPOTRAC more. I also use profootball reference for the stats. So here we go… Bills CAP Space: Top 51 = -1.330M Yep Still negative. But getting a 40K savings from the LBer writeup. Defensive Line – 8 players on contact taking up 11.75% of CAP, 23rd highest in the NFL. Interesting here, shows that the rookie contracts are bringing the % and rankings down, compared to 2021, we had 13 players on Contract taking up 23.83% of the cap, ranked 2nd in the NFL in terms of Cap usage. For those numbers I think this unit greatly under-performed. It did not look like the second highest paid DL in the NFL in terms of the play and numbers (will get into that more), so this is a reset year for this DL. I will talk DT and DE in the writeups as different moves for each position group IMO. DT Free Agents RFA Justin Zimmer – 29 years old – As an RFA coming off of INJ I would expect the Bills to work a contract with him in the 900K to 1.1M range. I do not think he gets an RFA tender offer (Original Round Tender – 2.4M projected, which while he has played decently when playing and makes big plays that is too much for Zimmer coming off an INJ). But I do expect some type of contract with him, might have to let him hit the market first. In 6 games this year Zimmer had 1 sack, 8 tackles (2 Solo, 6 Combined) and 2TFL with 4 QB hits. Those are not bad numbers for the playing time he had, but very replaceable and NOT worth anything more than Minimum this upcoming year. I personally would move on. UFA Vernon Butler – 28 years old, Cap hit in 2021 – 7.5M – HUGE MISS here with him IMO. Yes I know only 26 years old. But really has done nothing in his 2 years in buffalo to even come close to his BEST year in Carolina. But when you look at his 3 previous years in Carolina (minus the Contract year performance he is right in line with his historical play. This year he had 11 tackles (6 Solo and 5 Combined) 0 TFL and 1 QB Hit. So essentially Bills paid about 1M per tackle with him. This is an easy move on IMO, do not get excited about the Age, he just is flatlined with no more improvement IMO. We even brought in his former DL coach and that didn’t unlock anything in him either. Harrison Phillips – 26 Years old, Cap hit in 2021 – 835K, Projected Market Value 5.4M: The comparables to come up with that market value are, Poona Ford, Malcom Brown, Sheldon Rankins, and Maliek Collins. I was pleasantly surprised with the Market Value Assessment as I thought similar in a range of 4M to 6M AAV. They are projecting a 2-year deal so with a little more years we likely could get in the 4.5M AAV I think and that would be a great number for Harry. He is a lunch pail just worker from the DT position and not a lot of “flash” in his game, but the Bills found something with Him, and Oliver paired at the end of the season, they were their top two DTs. Harrys numbers this year (mind you not far removed from a bad injury as well. and looking at the Game logs got better and got more playing time as the season moved on (as he got further away from the INJ). All career Highs 1 Sack, 51 tackles (28 Solo, 23 Combined) 4 TFL and 6 QB Hits. IMO what I would do is sign him to a 4-year contract and look to make the space for this contract elsewhere will talk that in a minute when I get to the On Contract guys. On Contract Star Lotulelei, age 33, 4.38 % of cap, 9.226M cap hit (1.526M in savings, 4.026M in savings post June 1st) – Here is where I would make a change. I am cutting Star at this point. I am not approaching for a pay cut, I am not re-working his contract lower base with Signing. I am not doing any of that. I am moving on from him. Opts out in 2020, 3 inactives in 2021 along with 3 games was active and never saw the field. Snap count fell off at the end of the season as well. Was up around 50% through week 12. Then Inactive, 29%, Inactive, 34%, 33%, playoffs 32% and 43%. Now we are talking about a 9M cap hit DT and his numbers where 17 Tackles (11 Solo, 6 Combined) 4 TFL and 3 Sacks and QB hits. That is not the production needed from a 9M DT. I can get younger, cheaper, and better production from Phillips here. I am cutting Star Clean as soon as I can (maybe try and find someone to throw a pick in a trade). The trade would lead to the best savings of 4.026M pre Jun 1). Take the late round pick and move on. Ed Oliver, age 25, 2.97% of cap, 6.26M cap hit (No Savings) – Rookie Deal is no savings on a cut, but there is savings of a bit over 3M on a trade, but that isn’t going to happen. The most likely path for Oliver is an extension sometime in Camp like Allen, next year is 5th year option and then the new extension kicks in. Maybe lower the hit this year a couple Million. I think he performed well enough for that 4–5-year extension, however Beane and Co may want to play out this year and then work the extension at the end. (I wouldn’t). Me personally I thought this was his best year yet. He looked much stronger and stout in the interior, he always can penetrate, but looked great next to Phillips. Ended with 4 Sacks, 41 tackles (29 solo and 12 Combines, 10 TFL) and 14 QB hits. The numbers play out what my eyes saw that he played his best football this year. To me I would work the extension with him this camp. Eli Ankou, age 28, 0.43% against cap, 895K cap hit (895K savings) – Nice little futures contact find here. When I get into the numbers you will see the same production from him as you would your 9M Star and 7.5M Butler. His numbers 5 games 1 Sack, 9 Tackles (5 Solo, 4 Combined) 1 TFL and 1 QB Hit. Notable UFAs – This list is actually quit long, there are a lot of veteran DTs about to hit the market so there is likely a buyers’ market here. Some of the older Vets: Steve McLendon, 36, Tampa Ndamukong Suh, 35, Tampa But I am looking at long term here not a one-year deal that will solidify for a year so my age cutoff on this list is going to be 29 (that would give me a 3-year window with the player roughly). And what am I replacing or looking to replace, it likely at least One 3 tech and maybe One 1 Tech depending on how you feel about Ankou. If I am spending in the DT position and not replacing with a Rookie that DT better be able to bring pressure as well. Larry Ogunjobi, age 28, Cincy – I would look here for a pressure DT, logged 7 sacks and 724 snaps, will cost about where Star is now IMO so will have to do more cap work to fit him. BJ Hill, age 27, Cincy – another that will bring pressure for a DT logging 6 sacks on 502 snaps. Again, another 9M a year player. Foley Fatukasi, age 27, NYJ – Here is my UFA target for the Bills, if I play with the DT position with long term contracts in the offseason. He is our prototypical 1 Tech space eater, I think with around a 2.5M AAV he could be had on a long term deal. Notable Draft Picks 1st round DeMarvin Leal, 6’4”, 290, 3 Tech, Texas A&M Jordan Davis, 6’5, 330, 1 Tech, Georgia 2nd Round Perrion Winfrey, 6’4” 305, 3 Tech, Oklahoma Travis Jones, 6’4”, 333, 1 Tech, UCONN Devonte Wyatt, 6’3” 301, 3 Tech, GA What I would do: I would Cut Star, Let Zimmer (if he asks for more over league Min) and Butler walk. I would then R-sign Phillips. I would likely NOT address this position in UFA, it gets expensive, and wait until after the draft. I am thinking Davis is graded right where the Bills are picking. Adding him on a rookie contact would start the transition to a younger group. Going into the Draft that would leave the Bills DTs at Ed Oliver – 3 Tech Harrison Phillips – 1 Tech Ali Ankou – 1 Tech Then you go into the draft, for another DT, and if not you sign some Vets after the draft to shore up this position. Remember both Groot and Basham an come inside on passing downs as well. DE Free Agents Jerry Hughes, age 34, Cap hit in 21 – 10.75M, projected Market Value: 3.3M on a two-year deal. The Comparables used here are Tyson Alualu, Ryan Kerrigan, Kerry Hyder, Benson Mayowa. At that cap hit I hope the Bills bring him back. Yes he isn’t worth the value he was playing at any longer, but at this reduced value it would be nice bringing him back into the fold. His numbers are 3 PD, 2 FF, 2 sacks, 18 Tackles (8 Solo, 10 Combined) 1 TFL and 7 QB hits. With once again a top number of 19 QB hurries. I am torn a bit here because the Bills need to get better, but that is going to be tied to the progression of Groot and Basham more than anything at this point. But at a 3.3M AAV I could not pass up on bring Hughes back for another couple of years. Mario Addison, age 35, Cap hit in 21 – 10.5M, No projected Market Value probably similar to Hughes maybe an extra 1-1.5M per year based on his sacks as they do get paid for. His numbers 2 forced fumbles, 7 Sacks, 29 Tackles (20 Solo and 9 Combined) 8 TFL and 7 QB Hits. If I have to choose between Addison and Hughes, Addison is the one I am binging back. He is still producing in line with his career so IMO would be better value binging Addison back and letting Hughes walk. Because like Hughs also has 17 hurries but his missed tackle rate is only 9.4% compared to Jerrys 28% Efe Obada, age 30, Cap hit in 21 – 1.5M, No Projected Market Value – His numbers n 10 games was 1 PD, 3.5 Sacks, 12 Tackles (8 Solo, 4 Combined) 3 TFL and 8 QB Hits. 11 pressures and 20.0% missed tackle rate. Not much here to right home about, time to just move on there was nothing here. On Contract Greg Rousseau, age 22, 1.25% of Cap, 2.638M Cap Hit (No Savings Rookie Contract) – The talent is there, he does need to get stronger, but was much better at setting the edge than I would have guessed coming from college with not a lot of reps. Also needs to develop some pass rush counters, really doesn’t rush with a plan, this will come with reps though. His numbers 1 Pick, 4 PD, 1 FF, 4 Sacks, 50 Tackles (42 Solo, 8 Combined) 8 TFL, 10 QB hits. I was very happy with his play this year and I think if he takes the next step next year, we have our Premier Pass rusher already on contract and on a Rookie Deal. His play as a rookie is one of the reasons I am not going hard with the Trade for or sign a premier pass-rusher. Though if a trade presents itself, I will look at it as we need at least two, even if you bring Hughes or Addison back for the rotation. AJ Epenesa, age 24, 0.61% of Cap, 1.602M Cap hit (685K Savings) – Same numbers as a rookie roughly 1.5 Sacks, 14 Tackles (8 Solo, 6 Assist) 2 TFL, 9 QB hits. He looks to me that he just cannot hold the weight through the season and why he drops off as the season progresses. Though a Cheap Rotational Piece he isn’t going anywhere this year. But does have a roll in the rotation. Carlos Basham Jr, Age 25, 0.61% of Cap, 1.278 Cap Hit (No Savings) – Played in only 8 games but made the most of his time IMO. Logged 2.5 Sacks 18 Tackles (11 Solo and 7 Assists), 4 TFL and QB Hits. I would have liked to see more playing time from him in the season to really get a feel for him. But I would say a pretty successful Rookie year playing in a heavy Rotation with a lot of vets on the roster as well. Mike Love, age 28, 0.39% against Cap 830K Cap hit (830K Savings) – Futures deal signing. Notable DE UFAs Jadeveon Clowney, 29, CLE Emmanuel Ogbah, 28, MIA – Here would be the Target I would shoot for if signing a DE this offseason. Would likely get a Jerry Hughes level deal at 10-11M AAV. Productive pass-rusher, however these tend to come up via trade, not very often double digit sack DEs hit the market, and there is none this year, to be honest all the top sackers probably get the Franchise Tag. Arden Key, 26, SF – Here is my sleeper, an OLB with the length for the DE in McDermott Rotation, needs to likely add weight playing in the 250 range. But would be a nice serviceable passrusher coming from a good defense. Logged 7 sacks and 16 pressures in 374 snaps. Would think you can get him in the 8M range. Initial Draft Look with Initial Grades (no particular order and nowhere ready to really discuss draft) Round 1 (left off all the top passrushers because they are not going to be there where we pick) Jermaine Johnson II, 6’4” 262 – He is my last 1st round graded DE in this class. Very good run defender, and does have a plan while rushing the passer, knows how to set moves up and keep college OTs off his frame. However, he runs cold pass rushing often, meaning not many counters and if an OT gets into his frame he is done. IMO he is a Base End, better run stopper than pass rusher. What I would do I think. I would sign Mario Addison back as a Veteran. And Sign Arden Key, 5 years 45M (9M AAV) with 20M guaranteed. Need to find the space to do that but it is there. I would then look for maybe another in draft late to develop. That would leave me with Groot Key Epenesa Addison Basham That should work out to a young productive set of pass rushers with position flexibility with Groot and Basham to drop inside, and Key to drop into OLBer (Similar to Lorax back in the day). Reason I am looking for UFA (Key) is I don’t think the Bills will go back to the Draft well after having spent a 1, and two 2s in recent drafts. Could also go on from Addison and look for a 1 year vet after the draft if need be. Past Writeups: Linebackers Secondary

Set for life. Got his Ring. 30 years old what else is there to prove. He is a first Ballot HOFer. Go out on top and with your health.

I hope that it shakes the death grip these GMs have on all their Draft Picks. I have No issues flipping picks for proven players specially 2nd and Beyond. But I also understand the benefit of the cheap rookie contract as well. End of the day a successful draft is 3-4 starters. So what if you 2nd was used on a Rookie or an established player. That’s my opinion anyway.

Ahhhh now I get it. Thanks.

My 13 and 15 years olds absolutely LOVED it. Could have also been because Daddy had his old ass Crip Walking all over the house.

My middle aged ass was dancing and rapping his ass off. Then after the show immediately went back to playing poker with my friends ignoring the game.