jrober38

6 QBs have never gone in round 1 let alone the top 16. The QB frenzy is officially out of control.

Maybe in round 3.

I think Allen and Rudolph are going to get picked way later than people expect.

Mechanics and footwork can be refined. They can't be taught from ground zero. Time after time guys with accuracy issues revert back to their old ways once there are defenders on the field. Accuracy is the hardest thing to fix in a prospect. It can be refined and improved my a small degree, but rarely do inaccurate QBs become highly accurate. #2 doesn't make any sense. How can a QB coach be saying his anticipation has improved when he hasn't played a single snap against a real defense? Pretty much every big, strong armed QB looks good throwing against air. The issues return when there are real defenders on the field trying to stop them. Josh Allen might become a good NFL QB. I think the odds of that happening are really low though (less than 10%).

1. Sam Darnold - NY Giants 2. Josh Rosen - Buffalo 3. Josh Allen - Cleveland 4. Baker Mayfield - NY Jets 5. Lamar Jackson - Arizona Bonus: Bills Pick - Rosen

Sounds like a bunch of excuses. I don't get how you can conclude that a guy has fixed his accuracy and is capable of throwing with anticipation when you've been practising without a defense on the field for the past three months. Allen has the lowest adjusted completion percentage of any of the top QBs in the draft. Factoring in drops and throw aways, he still had by far the worst completion percentage so saying he's amazed Allen completed 56% of his passes seems like a stretch to say the least.

I think Josh Allen is terrible. You're preaching to the choir.

For Buffalo to attract talent in FA they need to overspend. Rookie contracts offer an extremely affordable way to acquire good talent on small contracts for 4-5 years. If you give up a bunch of picks, including multiple first rounds, and whiff on that player, we're looking for a new GM and HC in 2-3 years because the team will be devoid of talent. We're already lacking elite talent. Shady is old, we have nothing at WR, our top two linemen just retired, nothing at TE behind an aging Clay, no pass rush, and nothing at linebacker. We can improve with out first and second round picks, but it's unlikely.

Sure. And more than 50% of all 1st round QBs bust. I'm not trading 3 first round picks plus additional picks for a guy who was just a mediocre college QB with a sub 57% career completion percentage.

I completely disagree. 3 first round picks and 1 second is the farm. That's the affordable core of your team 3-5 years from now.

To move into the top 2 will likely cost both firsts this year, our first next year and probably a second this year or next year. I'm not giving up that many picks for a guy like Allen who has so much work to do before he's ready to step on an NFL field.

I get that. What I don't get is how anyone could stake their job on a guy who only has tools and has shown little evidence that he knows how to use them. If the Bills trade the farm for Josh Allen, I really don't know how I'm going to handle it. I think he's a long shot at best to ever be a quality NFL QB and to trade our future for a guy like that would drive me off a cliff.

The stuff about the quarterbacks is so hard to read. Aside from "upside" these guys struggle to come up with reasons why anyone should draft Josh Allen top 5.

Totally agree. Rudolph is a 3rd/4th round prospect. He's highly limited without a clean pocket, isn't mobile, and doesn't have a very good arm. He looks like a 6 to 10 year backup with no upside.

We need a new starting QB, LG, C, DE and MLB.

Ideally we trade up to the #6 pick to get either Baker Mayfield or Josh Rosen, keeping our 2nd and 3rd round picks to help us upgrade at LB, DE and on the OL.

This makes sense. Overall I think you can use stats to strongly argue certain players won't work out (guys like Allen who didn't produce), but there's no correlation between elite production and NFL success.

Ryan Tannehill has been a very mediocre NFL QB. As a top 10 pick he's not a success. Not a complete failure, but he's done nothing to elevate the Dolphins. Flacco is an obvious outlier. Matt Ryan carried a mediocre BC team to a top 10 ranking and a 10 win season as a Senior. He finished 7th in the Heisman Vote in 2007. There are obviously exceptions, but if you look at how many mediocre QBs get drafted to the NFL, and how few of them actually make it as Franchise Guys, the odds are overwhelmingly slanted towards these type of guys never becoming anything more than backups at the pro level. The QBs I have with a 1st round grade this year are Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen and Jackson. I think they could all start this year and have about a 50% chance of becoming really good pros. The next tier for me is Allen, Lauletta and Rudolph. I'd consider picking them in the 3rd or 4th round. I think they each have less than a 10% chance of becoming a really good pro QB. I wouldn't use a draft pick on any other QB. I'd rather draft a player who can actually contribute on special teams and possibly develop into a good backup.

There are a won of Bills fans who wanted him with the 8th overall pick in that draft. The key word was "generally". Bottom line is there is no history of success for guys being successful over the past 15 years who weren't elite college QBs.

A lot of people have no idea what to look for, so the easiest crutch to lean on is college production. Next is whether or not they look like other NFL QBs (height, weight, mobility guys).

I've been wrong about a few guys I liked. If you just assume that nearly every QB is going to be terrible, and grade them on a really tough scale, you'll wind up being right way more than you're wrong. It's really hard to find a good QB. Generally they're the guys who dominated college football while they were there, like Baker Mayfield. The other guys all represent considerably risk in my eyes.

All my stuff was over on the Bills Message Board. There are definitely people here who can vouch for my claims. Pretty much every year I pick a guy who is a first rounder who I think is garbage. They usually go in round 1 and they've all been busts. I don't think there's a single QB I was critical of who has turned into a decent player (the averages obviously work in my favour so I'm not tooting my horn). I maintain it's really hard to find a QB, and I think it's hilarious how every year people go to great lengths to make excuses for players who have next to no hope of becoming an NFL Franchise QB. Sure. But a lot on the old Bills' Board wanted them with our first round pick the year they were available. Some people loved Gabbert, some loved Barkley, lots loved Jimmy Clausen. All are enormous busts.

It's actually really easy to argue with stats. They mean absolutely nothing when projecting NFL success.

Mayfield is going to be a really good NFL QB. He made his team better and knows how to get the job done on game day. Combine his intangibles with elite accuracy, and I think you have a guy who has a very good shot at becoming a top 10 NFL QB.

If you watch the guy's highlights, he succeeds when he has a perfect pocket around him. He generally needs a perfect pocket to set up from to be effective, and that's incredibly rare in the NFL. When he's pressured, and has to move off his spot, his play suffers badly. Combine that with limited mobility and a mediocre arm and I see nothing more than a 3rd round prospect. People look at the fact that he threw for 4,900 yards this year and assume he's a great passer. Reality is that he's pretty limited and has very few traits you see from top NFL QBs.