jrober38

Mediocre arm No experience under centre No mobility QB friendly system that inflated stats Rudolph was a good college spread QB who doesn't possess any elite traits. His ceiling seems quite limited.

Totally agree. If you put Baker Mayfield's skill set in Josh Rosen's body, he's the consensus #1 QB. On the flip side, if you put Josh Allen's skill set in Baker Mayfield's body, I'm not sure he gets drafted.

I disagree. I think Mayfield is really good. If you put his skill set in Josh Allen's body, he's the hands down #1 pick in the draft.

With your shoulder. The NFL has a huge problem on their hands with head injuries. They know they have to do something drastic to help the long term health of the league.

I hope this is true. I think Mayfield has the it factor to be a really good QB. I think he's going to be a really good pro.

He's washed up. He was a slow receiver whose lost a step. He doesn't generate any separation anymore and can't stretch the field vertically.

Darnold is a lock to go top 4. The other four guys could go anywhere from 1st overall to 15th overall. My favourite guy is Mayfield. I'm hoping the Browns pick Darnold, and the rumours are true that the Jets pick Allen. Given that the Jets have recently picked similar big, strong armed QBs Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenburg, he seems to fit their type. I think the Broncos go BPA and pick one of Barkley, Chubb or Nelson in an effort to win now. Their coach is on the hot seat and is going to push hard for them to pick an impact player who will help him keep his job. Then maybe we move up to #6 and grab our guy. At least that's what I'm hoping for.

I think they will, but the talk of four going in the top 4-5 picks is crazy. I think the Giants and Broncos need for a QB is overstated. I think the Giants roll with Eli and the Broncos are in win now mode having just given Keenum $26 mil guaranteed. The Jets, Bills and Browns all definitely take a QB. Not sure who else is going to step up to the plate.

It's really hard to find a QB. This is why I never understand why people talk themselves into flawed prospect like they're doing with Josh Allen.

3 or 4 . I'm not saying we shouldn't trade up, I just don't think Lamar Jackson and particularly Mason Rudolph are going to be the draft commodities some people think they are. The teams in the NFL who really need a QB are the Bills and the Jets. Cleveland is obviously going to draft one to sit behind Tyrod. Beyond them, the Giants could use one, but other moves they've made suggest they could go in another direction this year. The Broncos just gave Case Keenum (who is 30 years old) a two year deal with $26 million guaranteed and they have a veteran team that's ready to win now so they could easily go for the plug and play impact starter (Barkley, Nelson or Chubb). No one else in the top 10 needs one. Once you get past the 10th pick, the Dolphins could use one, and the Cardinals could use one. Anyone else would be drafting a backup who will sit behind an incumbent starter which is rare. So that's 3 teams that will pick one, and another 4 that could. I don't think 6 of those 7 teams take QBs. I think a couple take the BPA on their board instead (Giants, Broncos).

Essentially half the guys are busts which is still pretty crazy considering it's a top 5 pick. And if you look at the guys who go 2nd to 5th overall, the bust rate is a lot higher. 6 QBs aren't going in round 1. The NFL is a win now league and there aren't that many teams who desperately need a QB.

Hey, if you think one QB in 25 years is some sort of trend, they go ahead. I think most people would conclude that players with accuracy issues rarely if ever correct them. I'm not okay investing a top 10 pick into a guy who history clearly says is nothing more than a long shot to ever become a quality player. His upside is very high, but the odds of achieving that upside I don't think are anymore than 5%, with it more likely than not he's a complete bust. Boom or bust prospects like Allen should get drafted in the 3rd or 4th round because they're clearly way more likely going to bust than boom. Picking guys like that in the first round is always a recipe for disaster that gets coaches and GMs fired.

So you've got one example of a guy with accuracy problems from the past 25 years who meaningfully improved his accuracy in the NFL. Don't you think that kind of discredits your second statement? Wouldn't there be more guys to look at if it were true?

When has a QB who was describe as having real accuracy problems coming out of college, ever corrected them and become a franchise QB in the NFL? It doesn't happen. Accuracy can be refined and tweaked. It can't be taught from the ground up.

None of those guys were ever considered inaccurate passers. You seem to keep confusing completion percentage with accuracy.

I heard Mike Mayock and the rest of NFL Network's panel compare him to Newton a couple times during his pro day. I think all of the positive Allen comparisons are a reach at best. Nothing on tape suggests he's very good at football.

Even with the guys who go #1, over 50% of all first rounders bust. Feel better?

First they were "loaded." They clearly weren't. Without Newton they're a .500 team and fighting to be Bowl Eligible. Newton carried that team. Josh Allen was just a guy in the Mountain West against garbage competition.

What's your definition of "loaded?" DE - Nosa Uguae DT - Nick Fairley DT - Zach Clayton DE - Antoine Carter LB - Craig Stevens LB - Daren Bates LB - Josh Bynes CB - Demond Washington CB - Niko Thorp FS - Zac Etheridge SS - Airon Savage The only real NFL player there is Fairley. Bynes bouced around as a backup. No one else who played significant snaps in 2010 sniffed the pros. Cam Newton carried that team on his back.

Because we're not going to have the #1 overall pick. It puts things in perspective for our specific situation, ie it's a long shot that we draft a good QB.

Of course they would be. The issue is that most QBs, in every round, bust, and given that it's the most important position in football, if you're a GM, and you whiff on a QB in round 1, you're probably not going to get a second kick at the can. If you take away the guys who go #1 overall, 70% of first round QBs bust, about 75% of 2nd and 3rd rounders bust, about 90% of 4th rounders bust, and good QBs flat out don't come from the 5th to 7th rounds over the past decade. It's really hard to find a QB, and consequences of choosing one and them not being good usually result in early termination at the GM and HC positions.

None of this happened while they were wearing a Bills uniform.

As do I. He has zero elite traits; a below average arm, no mobility, no experience in a pro system or under centre, no experience reading a defense. I don't see any upside whatsoever.

This isn't true at all. Geno Smith, Matt Barkley, Ryan Nassib, Jimmy Clausen were all guys who were projected numerous times as first round picks. A lot of Bills fans would have been happy with any of them as our 1st rounder the years those guys came out.

This isn't really true. Over the 17 year drought, we drafted one All Pro (Marcell Dareus, 2014). Over the 17 year drought, we drafted 10 Pro Bowlers out of 139 total draft picks (Kyle Williams 5x, Marcel Dareus 2x, Jairus Byrd 3x, Aaron Schobel 2x, Terrance McGee 1x, Nate Clements 1x, Stephon GIlmore 1x, Marshawn Lynch 1x, Eric Wood 1x, Travis Henry 1x). That's an abysmal draft record. Of the 18 first round picks we had, only five of them ever made at least one Pro Bowl, and only one ever became an All Pro. Just terrible.