jrober38

Allen's critical flaws are accuracy and decision making. His accuracy is an obvious problem, and every scouting report says he struggles to read coverages and his instinct is to panic and leave the pocket if his first read isn't open.

That's simply not true. People raved about Boller and Freeman. They were great off the field and had howitzers for an arm. Bollers arm was an absolute cannon. Unfortunately neither guy could hit the broadside of a barn from 20 yards. Christian Hackenburg is another example of a guy with size, intangibles and accuracy who rose up draft boards and is likely on his way out of the league in a few months after only two years due to horrendous accuracy.

EJ Manuel, Kyle Boller, Jake Locker and Josh Freeman say, hello.

Not that I can think of from the past 15 years. Garoppolo was at a small school against terrible competition but he had great numbers.

This is why drafting Josh Allen with a top 5 pick is so dangerous. Top 5 picks don't sit on the bench anymore. There are immediate expectations that people have nowadays, and he's going to see the field sooner than later. The Giants or Broncos might be able to keep him there throughout the year if Eli and Case Keenum play well, but as soon as either of those guys falter, the fans and the media in particular are going to begin asking the question of when Allen will see the field. Every scouting report on Allen says he is nowhere near ready to play yet. He needs a year, or two, or three to learn the NFL game and work on his mechanics, and he's simply not going to be afforded that time. Like every other bust QB who had accuracy issues, he's going to be thrust into a starting spot before they're actually remedied, and the result is going to be yet another train wreck. NFL defenders are too fast and the throwing windows are too small for a guy with decision making and accuracy problems to not get eaten alive at this level. Ultimately it's really freaking hard to find a real franchise QB. Generally speaking the guys who make it are guys who dominated college football for at least a year while they were there. Josh didn't do that, as QBASE points out, his adjusted performance relative to who he played was horrendous. Expecting a guy who was a mediocre college QB to go to the NFL and have to carry a crappy team within his first year or two is a recipe for disaster, as it has always been in the past. The game tape doesn't lie. If you look at his body of work, and what he does well and what his flaws are and what he needs to have happen to be successful in the NFL, he's nothing more than a mid round pick who should be stashed on the bench for a number of years before being given the opportunity to compete for a starting job. Picking him in the top 5 and burdening him with the expectations that come with such a high pick will force him onto the field prematurely, and because he won't be properly prepared he will need to improvise, and improvisation and going off script will lead to all his bad habits running right back.

So there's one guy (albeit one who completed 61% his final year). Seems like the type of player everyone should avoid. Some first rounders over the past 15 years who didn't pass the mark: JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, Jake Locker, Akili Smith and Brady Quinn.

Simple question, when was the last time a guy with accuracy issues and a college completion percentage below 58% made it in the NFL?

Am I the only one who noticed that they video they showed of Allen's highlights while Simms was defending his accuracy, included an air mailed swing pass that his RB had to jump for, a missed crossing route to a WR and a ball thrown too close to the sideline that his receiver wasn't able to get 2 feet in bounds for? All of those throws were from his "amazing" pro day with no defenders on the field.

Exactly. His accuracy is not good enough for him to step foot on an NFL field yet. His decision making would result in a train wreck if he's asked to play this year. Josh Allen has elite measurables. On the other hand, his abilities as a football player in live game situations rank him as one of the worst QBs in this draft class.

Agreed. A high completion percentage doesn't mean a QB is accurate, but a low completion percentage generally means they're inaccurate. People referencing QBs who played in the early to mid 80s clearly don't understand how much the college game has changed since then.

I was talking about college QBs. EJ Manuel completed 68% of his throws his Senior year, and he's one of the most inaccurate QBs I've ever seen in the NFL.

Their scouting reports tell a different story. There's a reason no one looks at a box score to try and figure out who the best QB is.

Matt Stafford and Russell Wilson are accurate passers. Josh Allen is an inaccurate passer as described by every stat and scouting report I've seen so far. Guys with major accuracy problems in college never succeed in the NFL.

There were 27 guys in the first 100 picks. The only guys who went in the first round were the guys I just named.

I just looked it up, since 1997, only the following QBs have had a negative QBASE Projection who were 1st round picks: Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, JP Losman, Patrick Ramsey, and Josh Allen. Everyone of those guys picked before Allen has been a colossal bust.

Brady, Montana, Brees and Peyton have average NFL arms. None of them have a cannon. Between every guy I named, and every guy you named, the one thing they all have in common is accuracy, which is Allen's worst attribute. I remember reading about how EJ Manuel improved his accuracy. Then he played in the NFL and was one of the least accurate QBs I've ever seen. Accuracy can be refined, but it can't be retaught from scratch, which is what Allen needs to have happen.

Completion percentage has little to do with accuracy.

Look up any list of elite, all time great NFL QBs. Few of them had incredible physical tools, so saying if he figures it out his upside is enormous doesn't add up. The common trait elite NFL QBs have is accuracy. When they throw the ball, it goes where they intend for it to go, and they put their receivers in a position to run after the catch which ultimately keeps the chains moving. Josh Allen's worst trait is his accuracy. Like so many big, strong, bazooka armed QBs before him, if he doesn't figure out how to dramatically improve his accuracy and ball placement, he has no hope of ever being an elite NFL QB.

A 3rd or 4th round pick. Josh Allen isn't even remotely close to being a serviceable NFL QB right now. He needs to get a lot better, learn how to read a defense and go through progressions, and completely refine his accuracy in live situations. His path to success is extremely narrow. A ton of things need to happen for him to get to the point where he can actually function on an NFL field, and the odds of all those things happening is extremely slim. This is the reason why guys with accuracy and decision making issues don't last in the NFL for very long as anything more than 3rd string QBs. Boller, Losman, Freeman, Locker, etc all bounced around the league as camp arms after their rookie deals expired, because they still aren't able to do the things needed to keep their team competitive if they're asked to play. The talk of Allen going top 5 is insane. He's far and away the least accurate QB in the draft, but because he can throw it 80 yards people think he has upside. It makes no sense whatsoever.

All I'm seeing here is that they've liked a bunch of guys who are busts. As I've been saying, neither Kiper or Mayock know anything about how to evaluate a QB.

Kiper and Mayock love big, strong, athletic QBs who have huge arms and terrible game tape. They pound the table for these type of players every year.

Everything about Josh Allen screams that he's going to be a terrible NFL QB. From the stats, to the game tape, to the advanced analytics, I have no idea how anyone is talking about this guy being the 1st overall pick in the draft. He belongs in the 3rd or 4th round.

This study dug a lot deeper and Josh Allen is far and away the least accurate QB in this draft. https://d3d2maoophos6y.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/25/2018/03/30143754/2018-Contextualized-Quarterbacking.pdf

QB is a lot more important than DT. Barkley is a lot better than Hyde or Johnson.

The Dolphins would pick him. Tannehill is severely damaged goods.