jrober38

I agree with this premise. I'm higher on Mayfield than he is, but you can tell by watching him on the NFL Network today he doesn't think Allen has any chance of being a good pro. It's really hard to find a QB, and the vast majority of first rounders who don't go #1 overall bust. Teams need to be very careful with who they risk blowing picks on. Drafting guys just for the sake of it rarely works out.

I just reread some reviews of Christian Hackenburg's pro day. Man oh man are they a lot like the ones being published today about Allen. Improved footwork Improved accuracy Huge arm strength Helped his draft stock Then he got to the NFL and was a colossal bust because despite looking good in shorts his accuracy never actually got better on an NFL field against defenders.

Comparing college QB production from the early 80s to today is not smart. In 1982, ONE college QB passed for more than 3,500 yards. In 2017, NINETEEN guys did it.

Mayock is obsessed with big, strong, mobile, rocket armed QBs. He always gets suckered in on physical attributes and often just completely ignores the game tape. Every year he says Player X had an unbelievable pro day and he's moving them up the board. He's really not a good scout at all when it comes to QBs.

No one is going to look this up for you. It's very hard to find college splits by passing distance. I've seen each of the top QBs adjusted completion percentage (excludes drops and throw aways) and Allen was still at the very bottom of the pile. Jackson and Mayfield had the highest drop rates from their receivers out of the top passers.

Yup. If you're an elite NFL calibre QB, your supporting cast shouldn't matter a whole lot in college. You shouldn't have to make excuses for who a guy played with or who he played against. Cam Newton had zero supporting cast at Auburn, but because he was a transcendent talent, he still found a way to dominate.

I'd bet any amount of money this guy has an advanced case of CTE.

Yikes. Two decent teams and a bunch of cupcakes. If you put someone like Cam Newton on Wyoming last year (the Allen supporters seem to like this comparison), Newton doesn't struggle against that schedule. Cam Newton played with zero NFL talent in the SEC and ran the table to a National Championship. Allen was just a guy in the Mountain West.

Yup. It literally happens every year. Every year a QB who is 6'5, 230 with mobility and a rocket arm goes in round 1, and four years later they're considered a bust. For whatever reason, scouts ignore the game tape and get drunk on a player's physical tools and it always ends in disaster.

LMAO @ the thought of a pro day impacting a players draft stock.

In all seriousness, when was the last time a highly athletic college QB didn't look good at their pro day? EJ, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, etc - they all looked great at their pro day. I'll never understand how scripted throws against no defense have any bearing on a QBs draft projection. It doesn't make any sense to me.

Mayfield is the only player in 15 years to post a college QBR Rating above 90 in back to back years. The only players to surpass that mark: Andrew Luck Marcus Mariota Sam Bradford Cam Newton Russell Wilson Jameis Winston Johnny Manziel Mayfield is going to be a really good pro.

They all look accurate in shorts.

And Kyle Boller, and Blaine Gabbert, and Josh Freeman, and Jake Locker, and EJ Manuel, and... you get the picture.

Completion percentage and accuracy aren't the same thing. Also those guys were all in college over 30 years ago. Football has changed dramatically since then.

When has raw arm strength ever dictated success in the NFL? Brady's arm is only average (at best). Brees' arm is only average. Montana's arm was only average. Peyton's arm is pretty average (certainly not a cannon). Rodgers, Marino and Elway all had huge arms, but they also had elite accuracy. What does every elite NFL QB in the history of the game have in common? ACCURACY, which is what Allen struggles with badly.

With $26 million guaranteed. And a roster that features Thomas and Sanders at WR, and the #3 defense in the NFL from last year. They're ready to win now, hence why they just gave Keenum a fortune for the next two seasons.

Ugh. I don't see it. Elway has blown picks on Osweiler and Paxton Lynch in recent years and won a Super Bowl with Peyton Manning who could barely throw the ball 20 yards and the best defense in the league. I think they gave Keenum $26 mil GUARANTEED for a reason. If they weren't trying to win now they'd have looked at a more affordable stop gap. Like the Giants, nothing the Broncos have done suggests they're rebuilding. They're trying to win now, ie the top 5 pick needs to contribute immediately.

And that means he can't get better? Vance Joseph needs to win now or he's getting fired. Drafting a QB and sitting him on the bench for 2 or more years doesn't make any sense when the rest of their roster is as good as it is. They've got Keenum to right the ship. Get the elite pass rusher or all pro Guard and contend for the AFC West title next year.

I just can't see the Giants taking a QB. They can get two impact players from the #2 and #34 pick to put with their FA acquisitions and getting Beckham back healthy. Why can't Case Keenum be the long term solution? He's 30 years old... And I know Miami and Arizona are interested, but are either of them in a position to move up in the draft? I don't see it.

Sure, but the long term need is something teams rarely draft 1st round QBs for. The Giants have made moves to upgrade their roster. They haven't taken the approach of a team that's rebuilding. Put Barkley in that backfield with Eli and a healthy Odell and you have a really good offense. The Broncos have one of the best rosters in the league and they just gave Case Keenum a two year $36 mil contract with $26 mil guaranteed. They're good at QB for two years and could desperately use an impact player like Nelson or Chubb. They could compete for the playoffs next year and beyond. The next team who needs a QB is Miami. Not sure if any of the guys drop that far. Then Arizona, and they're not mortgaging their future given how many holes they have all over their roster. Past those teams you really begin reaching for teams who would draft a QB in round 1.

They might be aware, but I don't think it'll impact this year's thinking for anyone except maybe the 3-4 teams who really need a QB.

I don't buy it. The NFL is a win now league and very fewer coaches have the time to draft a guy to sit on the bench for a year or two when the alternative is a player who can make an immediate impact right now (Barkley, Chubb, Nelson). I think each of the Giants and Broncos pass on QBs for impact players and ultimately I think the QBs go a little later than expected.

To Summarize: Pros - Josh Allen is a physical freak Cons - Josh Allen isn't a good football player Reading this report, it's bringing back memories of EJ Manuel and Jake Locker's scouting reports. Physical freaks, who for whatever reason don't perform well on a football field. And some people think this guy should go #1 overall? Complete madness.

He made some nice throws. I also saw him miss a bunch of really easy ones. That's what you get though. That's what all the scouting reports say. He'll wow you once or maybe twice a game, but he'll miss a handful of throws that should move the chains.