jrober38

I have no idea how Brady scored. I honestly haven't read anything about his draft projection. What I have read is a number of articles about guys picked in the first round who looked and played like Allen. QBASE is a good one. Since 1997, 27 QBs with a negative rating have been picked in the first 100 picks. Not a single one of them has turned into a quality NFL player. The best of those 27 guys is Josh McCown, and notable disasters were Josh Freeman, JP Losman, Patrick Ramsay, Josh Freeman, etc. The Bills picked Allen because he has a rocket arm and looks like a QB. His game tape simply didn't show a 1st round calibre prospect.

Rotoworld has us picking #1 overall next year so that tells you a lot about what they think of the pick and our draft. "Old School" scouts seem to like Allen. "New Scout" evaluators who rely on the numbers really hate him.

Good call. I'll just give up on the Bills having watched this team for the past 30 years. Thanks for the advice.

Some Bills fans can't handle when anyone says anything bad about the Bills. White is a relatively smart guy. He knows everything about Allen says he's very unlikely to make it as a Franchise QB in the NFL. He's a numbers guy and I give him credit for being consistent. If you look at the numbers, the only opinion of Allen you can have is that he's horrible.

Picking Allen in the 1st round suggests they don't.

Agreed. Until he proves otherwise, in my eyes we just drafted some hybrid version of EJ Manuel/Josh Freeman/Jake Locker/Kyle Boller because that's what the numbers say we drafted.

That's such a lazy way of looking at it. 20 years ago maybe. But now a days when there are so many advanced analytics that can much more accurately predict what QBs will and won't succeed than your average scout, it isn't the inexact some science some people think it is. The fact that pretty much every advanced analytic gives Josh Allen next to no hope of being successful doesn't bode well for his future. Scouts might miss all the time on QBs, but there have proven to be some good studies that are quite accurate, and they think Allen is going to be a complete bust.

He went to college 35 years ago.

I disagree. Figuring out what QBs are going to be successful isn't too hard. Teams get into trouble when they ignore the game film and picks guys based off their measurables or potential. It's really freaking hard to find a QB, and teams should be a lot more selective than they are. The "projects" rarely succeed in the NFL.

Not a chance.

The bust rate for 1st round QBs is far to high to ask people to shut up and "let the pros do their jobs".

If you have one guy to "point to" over the past 25 years your argument doesn't make any sense. Josh Allen was a mediocre college player. The odds of him becoming an elite NFL QB are not good.

Probably about as many as will be picked from "powerhouses" like Hawaii (47% passes complete, #113 in total D), New Mexico (57%, #67 in total D), Colorado State (50%, #88 in total D), or Central Michigan (58%, #55 in total D). He played bad competition with bad players. The good teams he played weren't elite defensive powers either. 57% against Iowa (#35 in total D). 37% against Oregon (#42 in total D). 44% against Boise St (#45 in total D).

Serious question - when was the last time a "boom or bust" QB boomed?

Allen had the lowest drop rate of all the QBs in the draft. His adjusted completion percentage (takes away drops and throw aways) was far and away the worst of all the top QBs in the draft.

Our OL is rebuilding and we have arguably the worst group of receivers in the NFL. Seems like a bad fit.

The analysis is that their running game was horrible, yet they ran the ball more than they passed despite playing several horrible pass defenses.

The game tape doesn't lie. He's a great athlete, but a mediocre football player. He doesn't display adequate NFL accuracy or decision making and takes far too many risks with the ball. He was just a guy in the Mountain West Conference, and was abysmal against decent competition. He makes some incredible plays with his arm and mobility, but he struggles with the basics. In the NFL where you need to convert first downs and sustain drives to score points, players like him never wind up making it as franchise QBs because they can't keep the chains moving. It seems like every year a team makes a mistake and drafts the 6'5 QB with the rocket arm whose college game film wasn't good enough, and every time these guys wind up as colossal busts. Just ask JP Losman, Akili Smith, Josh Freeman, EJ Manuel, Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Boller or Jake Locker. Inaccurate college QBs don't go onto become franchise QBs in the NFL.

EJ Manuel looked great at the Senior Bowl as well. He's one of the most inaccurate QBs I've ever seen in the NFL.

I want him to be good, but I'm convinced we just flushed 3-4 years down the toilet with this pick. There is no precedent for guys like Allen being successful in the NFL. I've watched JP Losman, Josh Freeman, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert and Jake Locker, and Allen is just like all of those guys. Being big and strong and able to throw the ball 80 yards isn't enough in the NFL. Poor accuracy and decision making isn't something that gets corrected once you're playing against the best defenders in the world and the throwing lanes get significantly smaller than the ones he faced in the Mountain West Conference. Someone was going to get suckered into thinking they could "fix" Allen. I'm really disappointed it was the Bills.

Spin it anyway you want. Josh Allen isn't an accurate passer. Inaccurate college QBs don't become accurate once they get to the NFL. Josh Allen completed 56% of his throws against garbage competition.

I hope not. He's not ready. Not even close.

Nothing. The one thing all elite NFL QBs have in common is elite accuracy, and we just picked the least accurate QB in the draft.

Agreed. Such a horrible pick. I'm having flash backs to 2013. All the reasons we picked Josh Allen are the same as why we picked EJ Manuel. All we're hearing about is the size, mobility, presence and arm strength. The point remains. In 20 years, 1 QB with a career completion percentage below 58% has made it as a franchise QB in the NFL. The odds of Allen working out are slim to none (which is what every advanced analytic says about him).

No he doesn't. LOL Ryan's career at BC was 59.9%. Stafford is the only guy in 20 years.