jrober38

I can't do it. I bought in on EJ even though the scouting reports said he was likely going to be crap. There's way too much that says Allen is going to be awful for me to get on board with another guy who needs to work on the basic fundamentals of throwing a football.

I don't see why you'd have a hard time with it. Any logical person should see pretty easily that the excuses they made about EJ's inability to properly play the QB position were wrong, and that making the same excuses for a new player with a similar set of problems doesn't make any sense. All I know is that inaccurate college QBs don't become successful NFL QBs. Matt Stafford is the only guy in 25 years with a career completion percentage below 58% who went onto become a good pro. On the flip side, there are numerous examples of guys who wound up being complete busts because they never improved their accuracy. Completion percentage isn't the only thing you need to look at. I read several highly detailed analytical studies, and they all thing Allen is going to be a huge bust. Hopefully for our sake they're all wrong.

Maybe. But history and 30 years of data suggests their methodology for players with a negative score is just fine.

Yes. It was obviously a wise decision. QBASE's reliability when looking at players with scores of 0-800 is not enough to solely base a decision on. There have been way too many hits and misses to say you can solely make a draft decision based off QBASE. I get it. You don't want to admit that Allen likely won't work out, but that's the reality we face. Trying to discredit QBASE, even though it's projection for players with a negative score has been almost flawless isn't the right approach. No one is saying QBASE as an overall study is perfect. However, based off who they've given negative scores to and the fact that none of them have become franchise QBs makes that segment of their study very valuable.

It isn't just about EJ. Inaccurate college QBs have no real history of becoming accurate NFL QBs. There are dozens of examples of guys with sub 59% completion percentages who failed in the NFL, and only a couple examples of them succeeding (and hardly any come from the past 25 years).

For like the 5th time, I don't put any stock in the guys with a score between 0 and 800 because there are too many hits and misses. That isn't the case with guys who score negatively. They've all been terrible.

Not necessarily. As I've said a few times, the only really meaningful aspect of QBASE is that guys with a negative score never work out. There are tons of misses for guys with scores in the 0-800 range. All the teams who picked QBs with a negative score would likely be very happy had they used QBASE. Just imagine if we'd not drafted JP Losman (-192 QBASE) and had a 1st round pick the next year that we could have used on Aaron Rodgers (+1198 QBASE). Picking players with a negative QBASE score has never proven to be a wise decision. If you use QBASE as a binary type of test to eliminate some players, if you took all the guys with a negative score off your draft board your odds of picking a successful QB would go up because you'd only potentially pick a player who actually had a chance of being successful.

I gave up on EJ after the San Diego game in his second season. He showed no improvement from year 1 to year 2, was missing wide open receivers and seemed to have regressed. I defended him pretty thoroughly as a rookie, but after 4 games as a sophomore I felt his benching was completely justified. He looked completely lost. I bought into the idea he was a raw player with lots of upside and I overlooked all of his deficiencies as a passer. I won't do that again this year.

NFL teams obviously don't use QBASE. But that doesn't mean they shouldn't.

Sure. I'm just pointing out that in 21 years, there hasn't been a QB with a negative QBASE score who went onto become a franchise QB in the NFL. As I said, there are plenty of hits and misses in the 0-800 point range. Althought Wentz's score was low, and his bust probability was high, it wasn't negative like Allen's was.

The only meaningful part of QBASE is who had elite scores, and who had negative scores. There are too many hits and misses in between. With that said, players with a negative score (like Josh Allen) literally never go on to become franchise QBs in the NFL.

I think the Bills' defense is going to be very good this year. The offense on the other hand will likely be horrible unless one of the QBs really steps up.

This isn't about guys with a higher completion percentage. This is looking at guys whose college completion percentage was very poor, and history very clearly shows that these players don't go on to become quality NFL players. We're all hoping Josh Allen bucks the trend and becomes "the guy", but every stat and bit of data you can find say his chances of becoming a franchise QB are slim to none. Most 1st round QBs fail, so whoever we picked likely wouldn't have been successful. That's just reality. It's really hard to find a QB.

Yeah, the NFL has always suspended based off their personal conduct policy. If a player's name pops up in the news enough for the wrong reasons, they'll likely face a suspension.

Charges don't matter in the NFL's eyes. Their personal conduct policy involves how their players carry themselves in the public eye. This will be McCoy's second incident in the last couple years. His friends beat the crap out of some cops at a bar on camera, and now he's being accused of something much more severe. The NFL doesn't want their players getting this type of attention, and I think it will almost certainly result in a suspension.

I just read up on it and apparently Georgia abolished common law in 1997, which seems crazy. I was wrong about that, but obviously something gave her the right to remain on the property otherwise the police would have forcibly evicted her. Right?

I assume he's going to get suspended at least 2 games for violating the league's personal conduct policy. If the story turns sour for him, he might get cut within a couple weeks and blacklisted from the league. This isn't how the law works.

As I recall, McCoy barely escaped a suspension a couple years ago after his entourage beat the crap out of those cops in Philly. The NFL hates players being in the news multiple times, regardless of if anyone presses charges. Ruben Foster just got 2 games even though his girl friend dropped the charges on his alleged domestic abuse because he was a repeat offender. I imagine McCoy is looking at the same type of punishment as a minimum, with the potential that his suspension could be much longer, and if real charges are brought that could lead to a conviction he'll be out of the league altogether.

Yeah, I don't know what the burglary laws are in Georgia, but I have to imagine that if involved McCoy would likely be guilty by association and face the same type of penalty as the guy who actually entered the home. A quick Google search suggests that in Georgia this type of crime could carry a sentence of 20 years in prison.

If McCoy is behind this, and he paid or instructed someone to enter the home to retrieve certain personal items by force, I have to imagine he's going to be in extreme legal trouble, possibly facing years in jail as a result of this happening in Georgia.

No. There's not. I think Jim Kelly was in the teens.

There's little correlation between wonderlic score and reading a defense. Hackenberg's biggest flaw was his horrendous accuracy and poor pocket presence.

Christian Hackenberg has plenty of similarities as a prospect to Josh Allen. Pros - big, strong, mobile, "looks" like a QB, good intangibles, smart Cons - questionable accuracy, poor game film, poor pocket presence Hopefully Allen is a lot better, but it shows how low the floor is for boom or bust prospects like this.

It's hard to argue with a lot of what he said. Our schedule is hard. Allen is a project. Our offense is devoid of talent in the pass game. What he doesn't cover is our defense, which could be elite. No idea how good it will be, but if it's top 10 you can probably bank on at least 6 or 7 wins. The offense is going to be the major problem area. Will we be able to score points? How good or bad will Allen be?

I agree I hope he doesn't harm anyone else. That would be awful and him picking a fight at a gym and throwing dumb bells at people seems like he came awfully close. Unfortunately if he has CTE, it's just going to keep getting worse and there's nothing that can be done to stop it. Humans aren't meant to play football. When I read stories like this I feel extremely guilty for watching a sport that might provide players with high salaries and a great lifestyle, but it's too often at the expense of not being able to be a functioning member of society after they retire.