LEBills

The 4 games Higgins played without Chase in 2022: 23 catches, 371 yard and 2 touchdowns. outproduced Chase in both AFCCGs they went to and in the Super Bowl. Injuries are a risk. we would be lucky if Keon develops into a similar receiver that Higgins is. Would be basically unheard of for a WR with his resume and in his prime to make it to free agency.

Yep. Keon is the only receiver we have drafted in the first three rounds in Josh’s entire career. Egbuka is a nice slot receiver but our outside receiver needs an upgrade. Tre Harris is the best of the outside options this year imo. But honestly, Tee Higgins like you have said before is the best option assuming he hits the market. Won’t cost any draft capital and he has been great against the Chiefs in the postseason. Also, frees us up to draft defense and developmental offensive players.

I think the reason you are getting so much push back even though you are right that the defense definitely does need extra help, is that most fans trust Josh much, much more than McDermott and Beane. Even in 2021, when the Bills were the top DVOA defense and allowed the fewest PPG we still lost to KC in the playoffs by allowing over 40 points. Since then, of all the draft capital used on defense and free agent signings our best players are Groot and a 6th round pick Benford who has been hurt in the last two playoffs. in that same timeframe, our offensive investments have paid off more and so people would rather take the chance on adding more there and hopefully going from the 16th highest scoring offense all time to the top one. This year, I think being defense heavy is reasonable because Free Agency and the draft favor the defense. But if they bit the bullet for Tee Higgins, or drafted a WR early I would have more faith in those players working out for us than on the defensive side

I think Pat Bryant from Illinois and Tory Horton from CSU will ultimately go in the third round, they probably fit the mold and draft capital of your question the best imo. Day 3 is probably going to fit the developmental outside receiver value for us the most. Ricky White and Tai Felton are a bit more polished, played outside in college but are a bit slight. There is also Elijah Badger, Keandre Lambert Smith, Dont’e Thornton, Xzavier Henderson who all played outside and have great speed.

Yea he hurt his ankle vs Oklahoma and then was never really the same and then sprained it against Georgia in the SEC Championship. in the first five games of the season when both Bond and Golden were healthy, Bond was significantly more productive. But he is a smaller receiver and injuries may be part of his story. When healthy he is pretty good.

I think if you forgo the strength of this draft until day 3, you should at least take two chances on a DT. Preferably you draft one early and one later. We will probably sign some replacement level DT in free agency.

Alfred Collins is so impressive moving literally. I’ll be interested to see how he measures because he doesn’t look or move like someone who weighs 320 pounds. Would be a big fan of him being drafted to be our 1tech.

First three picks are pretty solid. Morrison is an excellent cornerback if his hip injury is cleared by the docs. Pegues being the only DT we select would be pretty disappointing especially since the 4th is early for him imo.

Disagree. Having the best GM in the league and hiring two top coordinators is his key. Last year the coordinators weren’t right and they collapsed

https://www.si.com/nfl/bengals/news/look-patrick-mahomes-skips-samaje-perine-in-awkward-moment-during-super-bowl-lix-01jkr18szqd8

Barron certainly has playmaking ability, but I’m not sure if he is a fit for the Bills. The game against Ohio State it was like he was allergic to contact and the time where he had to make a tackle it was not too pretty. Revel was also a Juco kid because he was academically ineligible coming out of HS I read. Probably another reason they may stay away Im very early in my process so have only really gotten through DT, WR, and some CBs so far. But two later round guys that I think will be some of the top players from their position cohort: Ricky White - crushed Michigans dreams of playoffs as a Freshman at MSU. Transferred to UNLV and had two awesome years of production. I see a player who has a great feel for zone, has good yac ability with speed to pull away from tacklers, is fast enough to stack defenders when he gets vertical, has some contested catch ability as well as over the shoulder tracking, and most importantly is a good route runner who creates separation pretty easily. Some concerns is he seems to have had some undisclosed issue at Michigan State so character may be a concern, and he is not very big though he did play predominately outside. Also a good special teamer to stick on the roster early on. O’Donnell Fortune - MVP of Shrine Bowl after his pick 6. One of those players that put in the work and went from special teamer to starter over his time at SC. Good tackler and I think he does a really good job reading QBs eyes and getting to the right spot whether he is playing his man or dropping off his guy to get in front of a throw. Plus bonus of having another guy with an O apostrophe first name.

Shes 50 years younger so I think that may be his great grand daughter. Still very sweet. Also congrats on MVP Josh! You are the best!

I’m very much in agreement that getting Allen more help on offense is the key. Tho with everything being equal I do think Crosby is a better player than DK. Just don’t see many options on the trade market for the Bills. Yes DK, George Pickens (head case, but already is what we want Keon to be on the field), Rashid Shaheed (coming off injury tho), Alec Pierce, Romeo Doubs. And not sure we would break the bank for a very injury prone Tee Higgins this year So I’ll be scouring the WR draft prospects in case we miraculously draft one this year haha

No way. Maybe the Bills can bring in an experienced DC as a special advisor like the Ravens did with Dean Pees. Brought him in after week 5 to help a defense that was very leaky in the secondary with an inexperienced coordinator.

Problem is we haven’t tried much unlike DLine. Before we drafted Keon (the 8th WR off the board), the Bills and Bucs were the only teams in the NFL that hadn’t drafted a WR in the first three rounds of the draft since 2017.

Obviously we need better play along the DLine. But drafting and signing free agents have basically all disappointed. So give the premium assets to Josh: WR is the first need. Then DT and DE.

Havent watched one since 13 seconds. If the Bills are out, I’m out. It’s been an excellent decision each year. I’ll watch the season opener next season.

To be fair they have been talking about pushing the ball downfield all year and haven’t been able to. I think we are probably going to show a lot of light boxes, giving our secondary plenty of help, and dare the Chiefs to beat us running. I don’t think Pacheco is healthy enough and Hunt isn’t explosive enough to take advantage imo. If we could get up on the Chiefs quickly like we did the Lions, I think it will be a comfortable game for the Bills. Spags is a much tougher person to predict what he is going to do defensively compared to Glenn who stuck with man coverage despite being down so many starters. So I think the Bills will focus on the run and staying on schedule early until they get a feel for how the Chiefs are playing them.

let’s hope Mike McCarthy’s interview with the Saints goes well next week!

We now enter the Championship game with much more favorable tends for the Bills than those we had going into the Ravens game. Historical trends: Over the past 5 years, the Chiefs are 15-2 in the playoffs. Teams with a rest advantage going into Championship weekend are 26-16 and 20-7 when at home. Josh Allen is 0-3 as a road dog in the playoffs. The Bills have not won a road playoff game since 1992 (at Miami). Allen has never won consecutive games when he has been a betting underdog in both (0-15 opportunities). Mahomes is 3-0 in playoff games vs Allen. There has never been a QB who has beaten another QB 4 consecutive times in the playoffs. 4 teams have won 2 consecutive Superbowls and made the next Championship game. Those teams all lost. 2024 Trends: The Chiefs have never had more penalties called against them than their opponent in a Mahomes playoff game and only have one game where the had more penalty yardage than their opponent. Mahomes is 6-5 in games Clete Blakeman has reffed. The last game he reffed was a 20-14 home loss against the Raiders - the last non-Bills loss the Chiefs incurred. Road teams have won 11 games officiated by Blakeman in 2024, the most of any official. Chiefs O vs Bills D The Chiefs have not had a turnover in 8 games. In the last 9 games, the Bills have created 11 turnovers. The Bills have not lost the turnover battle at all this season. The Chiefs have only given up 4 sacks of Mahomes since moving Thuney to LT week 15, though three of those came last week. Thuney is not particularly good at LT, but he is not completely whiffing on blocks like past LTs. The Ravens and Broncos were the 2nd and 3rd least sacked teams this year and the Bills produced two sacks each game. Patrick Mahomes stats vs blitz since Week 12: 81.6 QB rating (25th), 56.3% completion rate (32nd), 6.8 yards per attempt (23rd), 63.2 PFF grade (28th). On the year, Kansas City’s offense finished bottom 10 in yards/play, yards/rush, and dead last in explosive play rate. The Chiefs 48.5% 3rd down conversion percentage (2nd best in the NFL) has allowed their offense to continue drives and post the 10th best time of possession. The Bills allowed the 31st worst 3rd down conversion percentage through week 17 of the regular season. Bills O vs Chiefs D Since losing to the Bills, the Chiefs have 25 sacks in 7 games (not including the week 18 backup game). In that same timeframe, the Bills have surrendered 4 sacks total while playing the top two sack producing teams in that span. The Bills average 4.7 yards per carry on the road in 2024.The Chiefs run defense allows 4.5 ypc at home.The Chiefs only allowed 23.6 receiving yards per game to running backs and no touchdowns The Chiefs did allowed the most receiving yards to Tight Ends this season and 11th most touchdowns. They also allow the most receptions and 2nd most yards to slot receivers. This week Andy Reid has stressed getting stops on 3rd down after the Bills converted 9 of 15 (60%) third downs in the regular season match. For 2024, the Bills ranked 7th in 3rd down conversion rate and the Chiefs defense ranked 23rd in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed through 17 weeks of 2024. Tyler Bass is 24-29 on the season and 59-64 PAT. Butker is 21-25 and 29-31 on PAT. Whereas Butker is automatic within 50 and Bass is a bit scattershot. Butker is 2-5 from 50+ and Bass is 4-4. Bills need to do some self scouting to prevent any type of punt or kick blocking. To editorialize a bit: The Chiefs will not beat themselves with turnovers, and playing on the road will be difficult. The Bills offense though is well suited to take advantage of the Chiefs defense. Look for our TEs and Shakir to have a day (unless they move McDuffie inside). And look for us to control the TOP with many 3rd down conversions using Joshs running and a good rushing attack led by our 6OL formations and the RT side of our OL. If we do that, the Chiefs offense is not explosive enough to make up lost TOP. Unlike last week where we needed the Ravens to make a few mistakes, there is a clear path to victory this week if we execute cleanly

Philly is better than Baltimore and smothered the Ravens in Baltimore in the regular season. The Commanders won’t advance unless Hurts gets injured again. Eagles will be a very tough matchup for the Bills. In a Bills vs Eagles Super Bowl, the OLine would be a wash and Josh is way better than Hurts but that is the only talent edge the Bills would have. I think it would come down to if the Bills OLine can hold against the Eagles DLine. If they can, I trust Josh can outplay Hurts and he has always destroyed Fangio defenses. But would be much less stressed if the commanders are in the Super Bowl if we get past KC.

Nice no Hochuli. KC’s record with Blakeman is 6-5 I read in the reffing thread.

In these playoffs, yes. KC was +6 in turnover differential in the regular season (same as the Ravens). The Ravens were susceptible at fumbles (7 during the regular season). This week it will need to be an interception of Mahomes who had 11 this season. Washington was only +1 in differential and will throw picks and put it on the ground. The Eagles were +11 with only 6 picks, but much like the Ravens put the ball on the ground with 9 fumbles. The Bills were +24 this year with 16 pick and 16 fumble recoveries. It is not a fluke. KC will be toughest to force into a turnover but if we get past them there will be a punch out or two vs the NFC champ

They weren’t going to win anyway, but this makes it slightly easier for the Chiefs. Oh well.

Going into the Broncos game, a lot of the circumstances and trends pointed to a pretty easy Bills win. Going into this week with the Ravens, there is trends in the Ravens favor which makes this game very much a toss up. The Bills opened as a 1.5 favorite before it was quickly bet to a ravens -1.5 line. Only six times in Lamar Jackson’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 straight up in those games. Over the last decade, teams that win the regular season showdown are 42-24 in the playoffs. Teams that win the regular season meeting by 20+ points are 10-1. Favorites in night games have won 79% of the time this season. Lamar is 1-2 in playoff night games including a past loss to the Bills. Lamar Jackson led teams are 1-1 in sub zero temperature games. It is expected to be like 8 degrees Sunday. In home games against teams with a win percentage of 66% or better, the Bills average over 31.8 PPG. Ravens are the second most penalized team in the NFL (jets are #1 of course). Carl Cheffers averages over 10 penalty calls a game. Home teams have won nearly 73% of games he has reffed this season Brandon Stephens has surrendered more yards than any other CB this season. He also had 5 PIs called against him. Marlon Humphries had 4 PIs and Nate Wiggins had 3. Carl Cheffers called 32 PIs this year. The Ravens defense is #1 in ypc against both running backs and quarterbacks this season. KC and Detroit were 2nd and 3rd best vs RBs and Den was 2nd best vs rushing QBs. The Bills beat those other three teams. Baltimore has given up the fourth most receiving yards to RBs this year. Bills have allowed the most, but Henry is not know for his pass catching. Bills are +24 in turnovers (16 ints and 16 fumble recoveries). The Ravens are +6 with 17 total takeaways. Lamar has not thrown many ints, but the Ravens have lost 7 fumbles. Bills sack differential is +25, Ravens is +30. (To editorialize a bit: very winnable game. Play our game on offense but try to add some deep shots to Keon and Amari. Get one takeaway on defense and let the Ravens shoot themselves in the foot with penalties).