LEBills

No way. Maybe the Bills can bring in an experienced DC as a special advisor like the Ravens did with Dean Pees. Brought him in after week 5 to help a defense that was very leaky in the secondary with an inexperienced coordinator.

Problem is we haven’t tried much unlike DLine. Before we drafted Keon (the 8th WR off the board), the Bills and Bucs were the only teams in the NFL that hadn’t drafted a WR in the first three rounds of the draft since 2017.

Obviously we need better play along the DLine. But drafting and signing free agents have basically all disappointed. So give the premium assets to Josh: WR is the first need. Then DT and DE.

Havent watched one since 13 seconds. If the Bills are out, I’m out. It’s been an excellent decision each year. I’ll watch the season opener next season.

To be fair they have been talking about pushing the ball downfield all year and haven’t been able to. I think we are probably going to show a lot of light boxes, giving our secondary plenty of help, and dare the Chiefs to beat us running. I don’t think Pacheco is healthy enough and Hunt isn’t explosive enough to take advantage imo. If we could get up on the Chiefs quickly like we did the Lions, I think it will be a comfortable game for the Bills. Spags is a much tougher person to predict what he is going to do defensively compared to Glenn who stuck with man coverage despite being down so many starters. So I think the Bills will focus on the run and staying on schedule early until they get a feel for how the Chiefs are playing them.

let’s hope Mike McCarthy’s interview with the Saints goes well next week!

We now enter the Championship game with much more favorable tends for the Bills than those we had going into the Ravens game. Historical trends: Over the past 5 years, the Chiefs are 15-2 in the playoffs. Teams with a rest advantage going into Championship weekend are 26-16 and 20-7 when at home. Josh Allen is 0-3 as a road dog in the playoffs. The Bills have not won a road playoff game since 1992 (at Miami). Allen has never won consecutive games when he has been a betting underdog in both (0-15 opportunities). Mahomes is 3-0 in playoff games vs Allen. There has never been a QB who has beaten another QB 4 consecutive times in the playoffs. 4 teams have won 2 consecutive Superbowls and made the next Championship game. Those teams all lost. 2024 Trends: The Chiefs have never had more penalties called against them than their opponent in a Mahomes playoff game and only have one game where the had more penalty yardage than their opponent. Mahomes is 6-5 in games Clete Blakeman has reffed. The last game he reffed was a 20-14 home loss against the Raiders - the last non-Bills loss the Chiefs incurred. Road teams have won 11 games officiated by Blakeman in 2024, the most of any official. Chiefs O vs Bills D The Chiefs have not had a turnover in 8 games. In the last 9 games, the Bills have created 11 turnovers. The Bills have not lost the turnover battle at all this season. The Chiefs have only given up 4 sacks of Mahomes since moving Thuney to LT week 15, though three of those came last week. Thuney is not particularly good at LT, but he is not completely whiffing on blocks like past LTs. The Ravens and Broncos were the 2nd and 3rd least sacked teams this year and the Bills produced two sacks each game. Patrick Mahomes stats vs blitz since Week 12: 81.6 QB rating (25th), 56.3% completion rate (32nd), 6.8 yards per attempt (23rd), 63.2 PFF grade (28th). On the year, Kansas City’s offense finished bottom 10 in yards/play, yards/rush, and dead last in explosive play rate. The Chiefs 48.5% 3rd down conversion percentage (2nd best in the NFL) has allowed their offense to continue drives and post the 10th best time of possession. The Bills allowed the 31st worst 3rd down conversion percentage through week 17 of the regular season. Bills O vs Chiefs D Since losing to the Bills, the Chiefs have 25 sacks in 7 games (not including the week 18 backup game). In that same timeframe, the Bills have surrendered 4 sacks total while playing the top two sack producing teams in that span. The Bills average 4.7 yards per carry on the road in 2024.The Chiefs run defense allows 4.5 ypc at home.The Chiefs only allowed 23.6 receiving yards per game to running backs and no touchdowns The Chiefs did allowed the most receiving yards to Tight Ends this season and 11th most touchdowns. They also allow the most receptions and 2nd most yards to slot receivers. This week Andy Reid has stressed getting stops on 3rd down after the Bills converted 9 of 15 (60%) third downs in the regular season match. For 2024, the Bills ranked 7th in 3rd down conversion rate and the Chiefs defense ranked 23rd in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed through 17 weeks of 2024. Tyler Bass is 24-29 on the season and 59-64 PAT. Butker is 21-25 and 29-31 on PAT. Whereas Butker is automatic within 50 and Bass is a bit scattershot. Butker is 2-5 from 50+ and Bass is 4-4. Bills need to do some self scouting to prevent any type of punt or kick blocking. To editorialize a bit: The Chiefs will not beat themselves with turnovers, and playing on the road will be difficult. The Bills offense though is well suited to take advantage of the Chiefs defense. Look for our TEs and Shakir to have a day (unless they move McDuffie inside). And look for us to control the TOP with many 3rd down conversions using Joshs running and a good rushing attack led by our 6OL formations and the RT side of our OL. If we do that, the Chiefs offense is not explosive enough to make up lost TOP. Unlike last week where we needed the Ravens to make a few mistakes, there is a clear path to victory this week if we execute cleanly

Philly is better than Baltimore and smothered the Ravens in Baltimore in the regular season. The Commanders won’t advance unless Hurts gets injured again. Eagles will be a very tough matchup for the Bills. In a Bills vs Eagles Super Bowl, the OLine would be a wash and Josh is way better than Hurts but that is the only talent edge the Bills would have. I think it would come down to if the Bills OLine can hold against the Eagles DLine. If they can, I trust Josh can outplay Hurts and he has always destroyed Fangio defenses. But would be much less stressed if the commanders are in the Super Bowl if we get past KC.

Nice no Hochuli. KC’s record with Blakeman is 6-5 I read in the reffing thread.

In these playoffs, yes. KC was +6 in turnover differential in the regular season (same as the Ravens). The Ravens were susceptible at fumbles (7 during the regular season). This week it will need to be an interception of Mahomes who had 11 this season. Washington was only +1 in differential and will throw picks and put it on the ground. The Eagles were +11 with only 6 picks, but much like the Ravens put the ball on the ground with 9 fumbles. The Bills were +24 this year with 16 pick and 16 fumble recoveries. It is not a fluke. KC will be toughest to force into a turnover but if we get past them there will be a punch out or two vs the NFC champ

They weren’t going to win anyway, but this makes it slightly easier for the Chiefs. Oh well.

Going into the Broncos game, a lot of the circumstances and trends pointed to a pretty easy Bills win. Going into this week with the Ravens, there is trends in the Ravens favor which makes this game very much a toss up. The Bills opened as a 1.5 favorite before it was quickly bet to a ravens -1.5 line. Only six times in Lamar Jackson’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 straight up in those games. Over the last decade, teams that win the regular season showdown are 42-24 in the playoffs. Teams that win the regular season meeting by 20+ points are 10-1. Favorites in night games have won 79% of the time this season. Lamar is 1-2 in playoff night games including a past loss to the Bills. Lamar Jackson led teams are 1-1 in sub zero temperature games. It is expected to be like 8 degrees Sunday. In home games against teams with a win percentage of 66% or better, the Bills average over 31.8 PPG. Ravens are the second most penalized team in the NFL (jets are #1 of course). Carl Cheffers averages over 10 penalty calls a game. Home teams have won nearly 73% of games he has reffed this season Brandon Stephens has surrendered more yards than any other CB this season. He also had 5 PIs called against him. Marlon Humphries had 4 PIs and Nate Wiggins had 3. Carl Cheffers called 32 PIs this year. The Ravens defense is #1 in ypc against both running backs and quarterbacks this season. KC and Detroit were 2nd and 3rd best vs RBs and Den was 2nd best vs rushing QBs. The Bills beat those other three teams. Baltimore has given up the fourth most receiving yards to RBs this year. Bills have allowed the most, but Henry is not know for his pass catching. Bills are +24 in turnovers (16 ints and 16 fumble recoveries). The Ravens are +6 with 17 total takeaways. Lamar has not thrown many ints, but the Ravens have lost 7 fumbles. Bills sack differential is +25, Ravens is +30. (To editorialize a bit: very winnable game. Play our game on offense but try to add some deep shots to Keon and Amari. Get one takeaway on defense and let the Ravens shoot themselves in the foot with penalties).

Sam Darnold is a poor man’s Andy Dalton. Can’t play in prime time, same number and hair color lol

The good news is that the teams with openings this year are crappy situations. Hopefully Brady has learned how important the organization from top down is important to his success as a HC. He was an OC in Carolina before he was here. He has seen what having no QB and a bad owner does to a HCs job security.

The crowd sounds like it’s in minnesota anyway lol

Patrick Surtain is considered the best CB in the league and he was on Cooper every time I noticed Coop

A lot will be made of Josh vs Lamar this week. But Cook outperforming Henry will be the key to a Bills win.

McD had his hat on all game, maybe there was a toupee underneath? We will never know

I think Vrabel is a good coach, but Kraft is an overrated, cheap owner and this isn’t the AFC South where the best QB in the division was Deshaun Watson Vrabels entire tenure. I’d be pretty surprised if they finished ahead of the Bills in the division for as long as Josh is playing, though certainly will be more resistance than recent Pats teams.

Best thing Steelers could do is trade Tomlin like the Saints did with Peyton. Tomlin is a good coach that can beat enough scrub teams to get a winning record, but once they make the playoffs the talent gap is too great. Reset, get a rookie QB and a young head coach and take your lumps in the regular season so hopefully you can start winning in the post season again.

2 seeds are 7-1 (lol cowboys) against 7 seeds all time McDermott is 8-0 coming off a bye (not technically a bye but as close to one as you get) Sean McDermott is 13-4 vs rookie QBs including 2-0 in the playoffs Only 12 rookie QBs all time have won at least 1 playoff game. Ever. and you really have to go back to 2009 to find one (Mark Sanchez) who pulled an upset.( John Wolford gets credited with a playoff win but left the game after 6 passes and Jared Goff led the Rams over the Seahawks. Russ Wilson also beat Washington in the game that RG3 tore up his knee.) The Broncos only beat 1 team that ended the year with a winning record (TB week 3, not counting the Chiefs scrubs). The Broncos were 4-5 on the road. They have scored 21.4 PPG and given up 21.3 PPG on the road. The Bills are 8-0 at home and average 34.3 PPG and allow 17.6 PPG at home The Broncos blitz the 4th highest rate in the NFL (and Vance Joseph defenses are 2-0 against Josh). But this year against the blitz, Josh has 16 TD passes and only one interception, as well as a 123.2 passer rating. Meanwhile, the Broncos offense is ranked 20th in DVOA against zone defenses. Obviously you have to play the game, and that egg shaped ball bounces weird sometimes, but we should feel pretty good going into Sunday.

Sad for Josh who deserves the MVP But if he indeed doesn’t get it, only Mahomes and his contract with the devil has won both MVP and the Super Bowl in the same year since 1999 so I’m a bit relieved there.

If I was Beane and McDermott I would stop giving Dunne access. But he seems to still have ties to players and the org, so I guess they are trying to control the narrative rather than letting him spew whatever deranged words will generate headlines.

Carolina had both Baker and Darnold on their roster at the same time lol Being a good QB is a combination of talent and being in a good organization

yes, especially with no Dawkins