LEBills

Idk, Bills are pretty conservative when it comes to guys with injuries BTJ having that reported shoulder injury may take him off the board I went with Worthy, I could see a scenario where they try to get ahead of the Dolphins to get him. overall think trading up is not a good idea for a WR

Nothing directly Bills related today https://walterfootball.com/nfl-hot-press-2024-nfl-draft-week-rumors-wednesday.php

With the 17th pick in the 2024 NFL draft the Jacksonville Jaguars select Wide Receiver AD Mitchell, WR, Texas. The Jaguars get caught up in the AFC South arms race, hoping to make the Texans division title an aberration. Back in March, Peterson stated “When you think of some of the young quarterbacks and teams are playing in more 11 personnel nowadays, and having three guys. It’s important that you have those guys. Our division, the AFC South, got better in a hurry just at the quarterback position. You look at some of the teams that we have to face in Tennessee and Indy, they all have pretty good receiver rooms. So, can never have enough.” The surprise here is going with AD over BTJ or Worthy. Jacksonville wants a bigger bodied boundary receiver to go on the opposite side from Gabe Davis. With Gabe Davis’s….inconsistencies, the Jags want a more savvy route runner with consistent hands as a compliment. Mitchell is an excellent route runner for his frame and is able to be a threat in the deep and intermediate areas of the field. He also sports a low drop rate though playing with the human overthrow Quinn Ewers. BTJ, though talented, has had his fair share of drops (about 8% for his career) and route running is limited to vertical routes and stems off those verticals. AD is the more complete player right now for us. The Jaguars have heard the recent concerns over type 1 diabetes and personality. However, we attribute that smoke to the time of the season. BTJ with his reported shoulder injury is not necessarily clean there either. Finally, on the Establish the run Podcast, Schefter was asked who he thought would go earlier than projected and the answer was….AD Mithchell. The Bungles and @Kirby Jackson are now on the clock

Did he though? His best games came against the a freshman corner at UNC, a backup corner and safety at Georgia, Furman, 1-7 in SEC play MSU, 3-5 Florida, Jacksonville State, 0-8 Vanderbilt. His best game was probably against 3-5 Kentucky when he went one on one against Andru Phillips who is a good player. He is pretty good downfield when he can be more physical than the other player and push off or jump over them. He takes a lot of steps to turn those vertical routes and transition them into a comeback or dig. He also is pretty good at running crossers. Watching all of his targets really disappointed me. He was not good at screens or end arounds, regularly getting tackles one on one by everyone including players from Furman, etc. He didn’t run his agilities and you can see why as him getting tackled one on one looks to be from him not being able to dodge players laterally or run through tacklers at his feet. He is very fast when he gets a runway to run a straight line For a five year player, his route running is so under developed which makes you wonder how long it will take him to develop effective counters to corners that take away his verticals. Watching Nate Wiggins mirror him and Legette not having any counter was disappointing. To me, he is a one dimensional player at the moment. You can send him vertical or have him run a crosser but that is not a first round player. Even those hoping he could be the second coming of DK: he is smaller, slower and does not stack vertically like DK did. I think he is a later day 2 guy based on taking a shot on measurables def not day 1, imo.

I spoke too soon, according to Pelissero the Bills did not have him for a 30, but did have a private workout with him https://www.nfl.com/news/2024-nfl-draft-four-potential-surprise-first-rounders

Hey this fan wants him at least!

Does not seem Legette came to Buffalo for a visit. On an interview with the Draft Network he said he had 14 visits and listed 13. He also confirmed in another interview he went to Carolina as well. https://thedraftnetwork.com/2024/04/22/xavier-legette-nfl-draft-networking-interview

there are more rumors for other teams too https://walterfootball.com/nfl-hot-press-2024-nfl-draft-week-rumors-tuesday.php

There have been rumblings on Twitter that he will be a late first round pick Thursday

What do you think of Lovett as a late round 1 tech?

Jax, Cinnci, rams

Yea this year is one of the most mysterious as we only have about 17 of the top 30 visits accounted for. Beane said we used all 30 so they are keeping this close to the vest. He would be a good selection at a later point in the draft.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a scout was being friendly and hyping him up saying we want you if you’re there at 33. Came across to me as him just answering the question honestly rather than angling for a higher pick, he has said elsewhere that being with the Panthers would let his family see him play. Hoping they take him so Beane isn’t tempted if we trade back.

If Arizona moves back and misses out on MHJ for just a third and a fourth, all 3 fans will get into a Fiat Pop and run Gannon and Co out of town imo. They may move back, but I think it would have to be a much bigger haul.

Javon Baker, Tez Walker, Brenden Rice

Two more all targets - Legette and Baker

Thank you, Beane actually addressed this in his post draft presser last year because he was asked about Kincaid and Torrence being older. He basically said that you like it if the guys are younger but that you are just looking for good football players in the end of the day. If I had to guess the more refined Pearsall fits what the Bills will look for more than Legette, though I am much lower on Legette than other Bills fans so it may be my bias. Yea definitely not saying this is what I would do as I’m not particularly high on Isaac, Kinchens or Pearsall. But for better and worse Beane usually doesn’t do what I want him to do lol. I do think it makes sense they like players they have connections with. I know if I got a job applicant who gave a reference of someone I knew and trust, I’d feel more comfortable I was getting a good employee if that reference gave a good recommendation. Haha yeaaaa, I feel the same way (tho technically it’s Beane not McD as far as I know). Why not invite Kirby Smart to your next BBQ instead Brandon? tho I guess Howie Roseman already has that market cornered.

Both are right. It is a small sample to draw conclusions from but with the NFL draft that is almost always the case. And I don’t think Beane veered off his board to select a player from a preferred school. But @NewEra is right too. I think if they have several players graded similarly, they may be preferential to the players who played for a coach they trust. An ESPN article from 2014(!) outlines McDermott being a part of a “little circle” with Aranda and Diaz… https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/11069344/rich-rodriguez-dan-mullen-james-franklin-discuss-coaches-customary-exchange-ideas Since then McDermott has publicly said how much he respects Aranda And Beane said in last year post day 2 press conference that he spent some time with Billy Napier (1:35 in) So in addition to the drafting of players from those programs in the past, it is pretty on record that they have relationships with those people for better and worse.

Preciate it. I did a similarly spirited post last year trying to predict our first rounder and whiffed big time lol but I think this has more evidence behind it. I’ve had this post typed up and waiting to go for a few weeks to see if more 30 visits got reported but they seem to have stalled out. Was waiting to see if any of these guys came for a visit since our 2nd rounders in 23 and 22 did. There were some rumors around the combine from Charlie Campbell that the Bills like Kinchens. His combine was not good and he does show up a bit soft on tape. But I do think he is the type of FS replacement for Hyde they would like.

We now have 7 drafts in the books where McDermott has been involved in the draft and 6 with Beane. In those 7 years, the Bills have drafted 7 players from three different coaching trees which may provide a hint to targets in the 2024 draft: Billy Napier (Florida Gators) O’Cyrus Torrence - 2023 second round Justin Shorter - 2023 fifth round Kaiir Elam - 2022 first round Dave Aranda (LSU and Baylor) Terrel Bernard - 2022 third round Tre White - 2017 first round Manny Diaz (Miami and Penn State) Greg Rousseau - 2021 first round Jaquan Johnson - 2019 sixth round 2024 Draftable players from these coaches include - Billy Napier: Ricky Pearsall, WR, projected Day 2 - Pearsall transferred in Napiers first year at Florida from ASU. Put up excellent Senior Bowl and Combine performances and is getting a lot of hype as a top 50 player in the draft. Dave Aranda: Gabe Hall, DT, projected Day 3 - Hall is a tall, long DT. Rushes high do to his height and may be best as a 3-4 end. 2 time entrant in Dane Bruglers Freaks list. Manny Diaz: Kamren kinchens, S, Day 2 - Kinchens is a productive, ball hawking safety that started as a true Freshman in 2021. He recently tested poorly at the combine. James Williams, S/LB, Day 3 - A 6’4’’ safety who is better coming downhill and may need a change of position in the NFL Leonard Taylor, DT, Day 3 - all hype and talent with very little production (All three Hurricanes were recruited to Miami for Diaz’s final year in 2021 and all played as Freshmen.) Chop Robinson, DE, Round 1 - Explosive pass rusher that is learning to translate traits into production Adisa Isaac, DE, Round 2-3 - The more productive of the PSU edge defenders. Kalen king, CB, Day 3 - once thought to be the next star college corner, his play has tapered off and measurables are only average. Move to safety possible. Johnny Dixon, CB, Day 3 - small aggressive corner who likely will be a nickel cornerback in the NFL Curtis Jacobs LB, Day 3- a leader at Penn State, a bigger linebacker more suited against the run Any Buffalo Bills? Highest chance (imo): 1.) Kamren Kinchens - I think Kinchens is the most likely to match need and draft range. Kinchens really disappointed at the combine but just prior to Kinchens testing Beane was quoted as saying ‘“I think instincts are really big at safety. If you’re telling me, ‘you can have an athletic guy that’s a 4.3 (in the forty yard dash), 4.4 safety but he doesn’t have instincts,’ I’ll take the 4.6 guy with instincts, ball skills, and a little less range.”’ Kinchens has 11 interceptions in his past 2 collegiate years. We also just hired Jahmile Addae as our CB coach after he was Kinchens DB coach for the past two years. 2.) Adissa Isaac - Isaac fits the body type the Bills tend to like with long arms. He was a team captain this year and led the team in sacks in 2023. Also reported to be a good character player who does a lot for the special needs community of which all of his siblings belong. Bills were reported to have met with Isaac at his Pro Day where he had an excellent performance according to reports. PSU is considered a local school for the Bills and so if they do bring him in it does not count against the top 30 visits. https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/news-notes-2024-ucla-penn-state-pro-days-edge-rushers-shine-laiatu-latu-leads-way 3.) Ricky Pearsall - If the Bills do decide not to go WR at 28, Pearsall may be in play at 60. Though he did play in the slot about 60% of the time, McBeane may see a good WR4 candidate that can learn all the WR positions. In last years post draft conference, Beane joked about how he should get an office at UofF due to the amount of Florida players they picked up in the last two drafts. Final Thoughts: Though the Bills have drafted from these coaching trees pretty consistently, it does not happen every year (2018, 2020) so it may not happen this year. Also missing that third round pick may make it difficult for the Bills to have a chance at some of the prospects listed as many could be gone between pick 60 and 128. And the Bills have predominantly selected from these coaching trees in the first three rounds (5 of 7 pick). I do think it goes to show the Bills willingness to take chances on guys that may not exactly fit their past schemes (Elam, Torrence), or didn’t test too well (Rousseau, Johnson, Benford, Tre) when these players are tied to coaching staffs they trust.

It’s true maybe we will learn more later and other targets will be included (hopefully!), right now I'm just going off the info we have I agree, I think the day 3 edge rushers are where the value is. Beane doesn’t always do things the way I see though for better and worse. And there are other DL visits we have had besides Kneeland so they may go a different way. I would just include Kneeland on the inside track to pick 60 right now with the other visitors.

Yea I’m not a fan either, but the weak DE class is having teams looking for potential and he has the coveted size, workout number combo. The last two years the Bills have had their second round pick in for a 30 visit so I give guys who have had that the inside track for the Bills for better or worse.