GunnerBill

And their OTs. They didn't love Orlando Brown because he was a better run blocker than pass blocker but maaaaaann.... he was significantly better than Donavan Smith has been. He was never great IMO and he is washed. And Jawaan Taylor who they originally signed to a decent deal thinking they could make him a left tackle has been bad and a penalty machine even at right tackle. That has been part of the run game decline too. He had one sensational year. The rest of the time he was a #2, and he is better than Gabe, I agree with that, but he is overrated IMO. He is a middle of the road #2 receiver.

Juju had one great year when AB was literally the best receiver in football. I think other than that he is a #2. But he isn't a top end #2 by any stretch. And MVS does suck. Agree on the running backs though.

Josh and Dors were close. But I agree this wasn't some case of Josh Allen picking the OC. They were grooming Dorsey for that job already, had made him passing game coordinator, McDermott likely considered Josh's comfort with him as a factor but he didn't hire Ken Dorsey because Josh wanted him. Responsibility for the hire belongs with the Head Coach.

Yea JuJu isn't great. Look at him this year. I know he is playing with a terrible QB situation but JuJu is an average receiver. He doesn't suck but he isn't a difference maker.

Yes. I mentioned that in my original post on the subject.

The Bengals made it with a below average OL. I am not sure I can recall anyone else doing it in recent times. Maybe Big Ben's second Steelers Superbowl, that was a line a bit like our 2021 one that was pretty terrible all year but then suddenly pulled it together in the playoffs and played well. I know the Chiefs line IN the Superbowl against the Buccs sucked but remember they lost two guys in the AFCCG. That was not the line that got them there. So I am not sure I buy that you can hide a below average line that easily. You need pass catchers, sure. But at the same time the Panthers reached the Superbowl with Greg Olsen and Ted Ginn and the Seahawks reached their 2nd with Doug Baldwin (who was good but not great) and then a complete bunch of JAGs. They did at least have Golden Tate for their win. I guess I just think beyond Quarterback there is no absolute pattern to Superbowl teams. You almost always have to have a Quarterback. Otherwise it is about the number of elite guys you have rather than the positions they play. Again, none of which is me disagreeing with you on the Bills resource allocation at receiver.

While I agree - you don't need a dominant OL, I don't agree it has been a red herring the past two years. The Bills have had bottom feeding offensive lines in 2021 and 2022. The guard play has been positively disgusting. They didn't in 2020 and they haven't this year. Both of those lines were probably a bit above average. I am absolutely fine with that. But the line has been a major issue the last two years. Our record in one score games we lost where our OFFENSE had the ball last in the past 2 seasons was atrocious (unlike this year where it has been the D at the end that has failed more than it has succeeded) and almost all those potential gane winning drives that failed had a major offensive line breakdown that got us behind the sticks. That isn't to say I don't agree with you on the resource allocation at receiver. I do. I have been on receiver in round 1 the last two years. I likely will be again although tok early for me to really be on this class it looks a decent one. Gabe Davis has been a really good draft pick. His production from a 4th rounder is way above 4th round average. But you can't keep hoping to strike bronze (let alone gold or silver) with Davis, Shakir and Shorter. Eventually you gotta take a shot at a guy early.

Spotrac doesn't have a projection for AJE but it does have one for Michael Danna of the Chiefs who was that same 2020 Draft Class (a 5th rounder and one of my sleepers guys that draft season). He has 11.5 sacks in the last two years (AJE 13 in the last two years but 11 since middle of last season when the light went on). Danna was a rotational end last year but has been a starter this year. I think AJ is a better rusher, better athlete and better dropping in coverage but Danna is more of a base end who can play the run too. Spotrac projects him as 3 years, $50m, $16.7m AAV. I think that might be a tad high but not much. 4 years, $64m, $16m AAV is my projection for AJ.

Poona Ford time. Better have the sick bag handy.

They did. They interviewed three people I think. Ken Dorsey was one, Tee Martin (currently Ravens QB coach but was then WR coach) was a second and I'm sure there was one more but it is escaping me now who that was. EDIT: It was Edgar Bennett the former Packers OC.

Dorsey will get another shot and it wouldn't shock me if he is good if he ends up somewhere with weapons. His issue here was with a mediocre overall set of weapons and his scheme was just too vanilla and asked too much of execution from the guys he had. Just some minor tweaks in shifts, motion and route combos under Brady and the same offense has found more ways to move the ball. Which isn't to say it is all perfect. Some of the issues Dorsey was battling against remain.

In his last 20 games (only 3 starts) Epenesa has 11 sacks, 22 pressures, 11 TFLs, 11 pass breakups, 3 forced fumbles and 2 INTs. I think you are absolutely right someone is going to look at that production for a rotational rusher and say "man if we make him a starter and get that production" and he will get paid beyond what I would consider a sensible market value. Would not shock me at all if his contract value ends up netting the Bills a 4th round comp in 2025. I also don't think he will live up to the contract he gets personally, because I think he is at his best as a situational rusher, but pass rushers are so valuable some team with some cap space will take a chance.

Definitely linebacker. Count me among those who said with either Bernard OR Dodson we'd have a huge flashing liability on the field that teams would go after again and again. To have ended up with that duo as our starting linebacker combination for the majority of the season and for linebacker play to have been almost last on the list in terms of issues is quite remarkable. Bernard isn't just serviceable, he is legit good and Dodson while still limited athletically has been really good at just playing his assignment, getting to his landmarks and doing the basics. The second one would be the depth receivers. While I was frustrated we hadn't raised the ceiling in that room over the offseason I was confident that Sherfield, Harty and a second year of Shakir would be a raised floor from Kumerow, rookie Shakir and the corpses of John Brown and Beasley's careers. They probably have been an upgrade, but only a very slight one.

I agree on the second point. But Josh missed him on the first throw. It bounces 3 yards infront of McKenzie. That was a QB miss. Isaiah's head is round when the ball is halfway there. It just falls short.

Few thoughts on this: 1. I'm not sure who advertised Kincaid as a contested catch guy. He has good hands but he is the tight end equivalent of Stef, he wins with crafty, nuanced route running. 2. I am not big on contested catch guys personally. I don't really want us to focus on finding that. I'd much rather get people who separate either with burst or route running. 3. Definitely true that we lack a guy who can win quickly - which is an issue in games like the Chiefs one where they are beating our protection quickly and Josh can't just let one go in the general direction of a guy he can confident will win his assignment. The overall wide receiver corps is still below average. I'm happy with Kincaid and think he will get better and better, but man I wanted Jordan Addison badly and he was perfect for this offense. I'm also very confident he'd have been the pick. Missing him by two spots sucks. Looks a deeper WR draft at the top this year though, so fingers crossed. 4. The thread is still a justified thread. The oline performance the past two years has been dreadful and it has majorly hamstrung offensive performance. That is not a justifiable criticism this year. I don't think the oline is dominant (it isn't the Eagles line) but has been halfway or just above halfway up the NFL this season. Certainly better than Cincy, and I think better than San Fran really who while they have an elite of the elite at LT as soon as Williams was out you saw how bad they were without him - when the second best starter on your line is Jon Feliciano you are in trouble. And James Cook has emerged as a top 5 back who is still clocking over 5ypc while handling a #1 back number of carries and is a genuine dual threat. The supporting cast is improved. At times last year (especially with Dion underperforming in 2022) you could legitimately argue it was Josh Allen, Stef Diggs and 9 JAGs. It has not been that this year. They can still get better, sure, especially at receiver. 5. I think you are spot on about the low margin of error in the pass game. And it is why ultimately Ken Dorsey had to go. Ken's offense wasn't horrible, but it was pretty vanilla. Pretty simple. And therefore it put a lot of emphasis on execution. More emphasis than the playmaking talent on this roster could handle on a consistent basis. Brady hasn't overhauled the scheme, it is almost impossible to do that in-season even if he wanted to. But they are using more pre-snap shift and motion, in run and pass game, which is giving them a numbers and leverage advantage on multiple plays and he is calling fewer hitch / comeback routes that necessarily limit YAC potential. These are routes Josh has always been very comfortable with and because of his alleged closeness with Dorsey I kinda wonder if Dors pandered to him too much on calling them. But Brady has found a way to get the ball to the middle more with his calls. Again, it isn't radical overhaul.... it is just a slightly more creative approach to doing the same stuff and it has increased some of that "margin of error" which is a good thing (while I am on that subject this blog is highly recommended reading). Not a lie from me. I said on here I thought he was clear top 10 and a borderline top 5 receiver when the trade went down.

I agree with this with Deebo. I said it when he was holding out and requesting a trade. Be careful what you wish for because I think his skillset is a really specific fit for what Kyle Shanahan does. And I know there are a ton of Shanahan copycats now but I am not sure any of them understand that offense as well as the master. Deebo is absolutely an elite player in that scheme. I am not sure he is a guy who would be elite wherever he was.

I don't think he has played like a top 5 guy this year. He is top 10 in receptions and top 5 in touchdowns though, and just outside that in yards (12th) on what has been at times a stuttering offense. But there have been more drops (highest drop rate of his time as a Bill) and while I think the "not separating" thing is a bit overblown and isn't borne out when I look at the film I do think there is just a hint that some of the suddenness of his acceleration has dipped. But he is still a master of his craft as a route runner and he was always a guy who relied on his route running skill over his speed and suddenness. If we were going a rebuild mode everything would be on the table for me with Stef. But I think that now feels really unlikely, even if they miss the playoffs at 10-7 I think almost no chance Pegula makes a change in thos circumstances. So I think you keep Stef for 2024 and you work a bit of the contract and kick the can a bit and you have to try and draft a guy who by this time next year we are talking about as potentially our next #1 receiver going into 2025.

I did and argued as much here. When the consensus was he was the 2nd best receiver on the Vikings. Which was hilariously wrong.

The Chargers are the ones I dispute here. I think you overrate their weapons. They do not separate. The rest of those teams I agree with.

The receiver group is still weak overall, but you are right the overall talent on the offense is not the handicap it was last year.

I think his written work is still pretty good. He is bad as a talking head. Rambly and states the obvious.

Yea we didn't "almost lose" to Tampa. Almost ever hail mary you can play the "if guy X did Y that coulda been complete" they are complete once in an absolute blue moon. We did almost lose to the Giants. The offense was absolutely atrocious that night. I think that was the point at which Dorsey could have been fired and looking back now probably should have been.

It is but I kinda feel we have the Hex on Miami. I mean they have beaten us twice with Josh. Once in 900° heat (and Josh missed Isaiah for a walk in touch down at the end) and once when he was a rookie and Charles Clay dropped the ball. While it is definitely a tough game (especially if they also need it) I think they would almost rather play anyone else than the Bills. But the Browns and the Texans coming back late on Sunday hurt. If those two had lost our odds rocketed.

I take the point but Easton Stick is at QB. I think McDermott shuts him down and the Bills win comfortably.

Nah he is an edge.