GunnerBill

I've made a couple of tweaks to my board based on the Combine. I think a lot of what I saw there was confirming things I'd already priced in so have left it unaffected but the things I've changed are: - bumped Ladd McConkey up two points. He was just more explosive than I expected. You something get that with guys like him who are such smooth movers that you underestimate the explosiveness. He had a good week, moved him up two points on my grading chart; - bumped Xavier Worthy up one point. I knew he was going to run fast but fastest ever, that deserves recognition, up one; - bumped Troy Franklin down three. Isn't just an over reaction to the "underwear olympics" the problem for Franklin is all the things that were in the negatives column when I watched his film were exacerbated by what showed up both in the measurements and the drills and the things that were in the positives column were slightly undermined. I think I was guilty of seeing how he could be used in the Bills offense and thinking with red, white and blue specs on when originally grading him because I wanted him to be a potential weapon for us. I feel worse about every benefit of every doubt I gave him on the film post this weekend. - Keon Coleman down one. I thought he'd run high 4.4s, maybe low 4.5s and I'd have been fine with that because I don't think speed was ever going to be his calling card. 4.64 doesn't totally rule him out of being a good NFL player but I wonder how effective he is really going to be as a deep threat outside at that speed. The lack of separation is explainable by that run. I wonder now if his best fit in the NFL is as a Big Slot. I left Adonai Mitchell unchanged. I need to go back to the tape on him because I was baffled by the testing. Does not show up on tape. So doing the same thought exercise as @DCOrange above and ignoring the top three that leaves me with a wide receiver board of: 1. Xavier Legette (1st) 2. Brian Thomas (1st/2nd) 3. Adonai Mitchell (2nd) 4. Ladd McConkey (2nd) 5. Xavier Worthy (2nd) 6. Troy Franklin (2nd) 7. Keon Coleman (2nd) 8. Roman Wilson (2nd/3rd) 9. Javon Baker (3rd) 10. Jermaine Burton (3rd)

Are you sure they met Josh at the Combine? I don't think they did. I thought it was Senior Bowl then on a visit to see him at Wyoming, then they brought him in to Buffalo. Tre they might have done, I thought that was just Senior Bowl but I could be wrong on that it is purely from memory. It is a fair point though about who goes to the Senior Bowl. I don't think McDermott usually goes. He did in 2018 when they were in the QB game but as a rule I don't think the coaches attend. Beane normally does, but how much of a group they send down there is a fair point. They do have a track record of drafting a LOT of Senior Bowl guys though so whoever does go definitely holds some sway!

I dunno. If Ladd was one of the Bills specific requests a 25 minute interview is a pretty significant chunk of time. In terms of non-WR meetings with guys who are at least in the mix for day 1 I make it: Byron Murphy, DT Kamari Lassiter, CB Cooper DeJean, CB/S Graham Barton, IOL Sure there were others meetings we haven't heard about yet, as metioned above the Elam news came late in the day and not sure Kincaid was ever public pre-draft. But at the same time it is interesting to look at who might be in their thoughts.

I thought McConkey had said he didn't meet with the Bills? I thought that was where that came from? Agree though I don't think we knew that they met Kincaid last year. In 2022 the meeting with Elam only became public knowledge in the last 48 hours before the draft. I remember commenting on it because I had all but dismissed him as a possibility not seeing the scheme fit and with no meetings and then it emerged right at the last minute he had met with them at the Combine. 2021 there was no Combine and all meetings were virtual. 2020 they didn't have a 1st round pick. 2019 - Ed Oliver they definitely met at the Combine. 2018 I don't think they met either Josh or Tremaine at the Combine. But they had Tremaine in on a 30 visit and the met with Josh at the Senior Bowl and on private visits. That year I would submit was slightly different because they were in the QB market and that dictated a lot. I think they have said since their plan was by the end of the Combine have met all of the top guys at least once and they had covered Josh off at the Senior Bowl. That said I think Tre in 2017 was a Senior Bowl meeting rather than Combine as well from memory. I am not wedded to the idea it must be a Combine meeting for their first round pick. But it will be someone they have met with. If they met with Ladd at the Senior Bowl he is still in play. If they didn't but they bring him in for a visit likewise. But they will only draft someone they have met in the 1st. I don't think they have ever taken someone round 2 without an in person meeting either. It is just who they are. Hell, they have often met their day 3 picks. I am actually more interested in who are the non-WRs they have met so far? Because that might give us a clearer sence of where their head is at beyond the obvious.

There have been videos in both cases as part of the Embedded series. The "notebook" conversation with Elam was at the Combine and the interview with Kincaid on last year's you can clearly see they are in a suite at Lucas Oil with the stadium visible out the window at the back of the room.

Guerendo will go after Benson and Wright for sure.

That is 100% not true I can tell you that for a fact. Most teams work on a board of around 150-160 max. The Patriots famously under Belichick had less than 100 guys on its draft board most years. The reasons a player will generally be off a board: 1. Medicals 2. Conduct 3. Personality (distinct from conduct as in there are no specific incidents but the vibe they get from work area scouts do is the individual just isn't a fit) 4. Scheme 5. Failure to meet physical specifications for the position (every team has them, some are more slavish about them than others) 6. They don't give them a draftable grade My suspicion since Beane arrived here has always been he operates towards the smaller end board wise. I'd say somewhere in the 120 range. I have second hand confirmation from someone who was in the building that it isn't far off (though the number fluctuates a bit year to year and class to class). Remember last year when after taking Shorter in round 5 Beane started trading back multiple times? I strongly suspect his board was empty. Broeker and Austin were very likely prioritiy UDFAs for them rather than draft board guys. They'd just ran out of the latter.

There was definitely some.

I wasn't saying he didn't. I was simply saying the Bills will draft a guy they have met in round 1. It is just how they operate.

I agree. Though I do think they will nibble at Gabe Davis. It isn't just fan talk IMO.

I remember "if Kadarius Toney is drafted by the Chiefs it is game over" not just from Bills fans. I heard it in the mainstream media too. Low and behold he ends up there after a trade and royally sucks balls.

Nah I doubt they change that. They are big on character and culture. They are going to draft guys they meet. Take that to the bank.

In which case he is still in play.

Yep. The Bills don't draft kids they haven't met.

The Legette dream is still alive 🙏🏻

Good

You might have missed it but I did a bit of DM bombing in the past week - touched base with 8 respected folks who I have got to be on DMing terms with over the past 5 years or so including two NFL scouts (one past and one present). Asked them basically where they were beyond the consensus top 3 and this was pre-combine and the split for the "4th guy" was Thomas x3 (including one who had him at WR3 ahead of Odunze) Coleman x2 Mitchell x1 Worthy x1 Franklin x1 And Worthy was the former scout. So I totally buy that the NFL has always been higher than the draft comnunity.

Me personally? I wouldn't. Because I like Legette a lot and while I understand the risks of 1 year production and age I'd be willing to stand pat and take him. I have started on some of the simulators looking at how high I'd be willing to go for Thomas. He is my WR5 with a borderline 1st round grade. But acknowledging that I am higher than the consensus on Legette if I take him off my board for a moment there is now a little gap between Thomas and the gaggle of 2nd round grades. I'd make a phone call to Seattle at #16. I think Jacksonville is the crunch spot for Thomas, Seattle is a team I think would be willing to move back unless one of the 3 stud edge guys is still there (they are likely looking at the interior of both lines in that scenario IMO). I'd offer my 2nd in 2024 and my 2025 2nd too. I wouldn't worry about Worthy with the Jags. Baulke's history is he likes big. Don't think Worthy will be for them. Dallas much more in play.

I still struggle with where the special is on the tape. He is a solud receiver. Does everything well. Not sure what the trait that really separates him is.

20 is quite good (and it is 20 plus 4 1st/2nd borderlines). I haven't had that many since 2019 which was a pretty good draft when you look back now. So I think it is a good first round. After that it is good in some spots and less so in others. I think OL has decent depth. Safety while it lacks blue chippers at the top is pretty deep. Corner is good early and good late (there is a bit of a lacuna in the middle rounds 3 and 4 sort of area). Then obviously WR is very strong and deep. On the flip side.... horrible tight end class beyond the top two, not a lot of true starting running backs and slim pickings at linebacker. There are three studs at edge, then 1 boom or bust guy, then 3 starting level players and then a LOT of projections and question marks. I only have 10 that I'd take before the end of round 4 currently. On wide receivers in I have 4 and a borderline. But then I have a cluster of them between my 30th best player and my 40th best player. So however it falls I don't expect the Bills to have to reach right down the board to address the position.

I'm out.

I have made my case you have made yours. I have no desire to have one of your long rambling, unweildy "whataboutery" debates on this topic. Got way too much to be doing at the moment.

Ha I was about to say I wouldn't say zero chance Ladd goes before Worthy but you have edited in the meantime. I think it is more likely Worthy goes first of the two because someone will fall for that speed but it isn't zero chance they go the other way around. I actually have a higher tape grade on McConkey and wouldn't shock me if some teams do too but it just takes one GM to look at that speed and say "that is for me."

I am confused with him. I don't think I can touch his grade based on yesterday because I don't think it aligns with the tape. I need to go and do a re-watch of him but for now I'm leaving him where he is on the board. Mid 2nd grade.

Agree. He is better after the catch than Beasley though. Which was always the appeal of Shakir in the draft. He didn't really run routes or play in anything approaching a pro offense at Boise but when you got the ball in his hands he could make things happen. His route running has already come on leaps and bounds from where he was as a rookie but he doesn't have that same instinctual feel for soft spots in coverage that Beasley had. That was what made Beas an NFL player, without it he'd have been a grocery bagger. But his feel and football smarts were elite. You are right about role player. That is where you want Shakir. Not a feature of your offense. A complimentary piece of it.