GunnerBill

Taron has a shot at genuine all pro votes. Whether he makes 1st or 2nd team I'm not sure. Ed Oliver is the guy who should be an all pro.

His ceiling is a WR3 (a slot). He is not a viable outside regular outside option.

Since McDermott started to control his desire the blitz all the sodding time this defense has clicked. He is getting much better value for his blitzes by blitzing less. Teams are struggling to get a read on when we are coming and when we are dropping out. We will give up a few more big plays than we did previously but I think most were fine with that if it was in exchange for some more splash plays. 10th now in total defense (i.e. yards) and 4th in points. Given the guys they have been without that is a very strong performance.

Yea one of them breaking out into a star (and Cook is close IMO) would be huge. But they still need another weapon with some speed outside.

I was slightly surprised when I saw it this morning but Shakir's 39 yards yesterday took him over 500 for the season to 506. Fair jump from 161 as a rook. He has definitely developed. He is more physical, he has learnt the nuance of NFL spacing and his hands have been much better: two drops in 20 targets last year; 0 in 39 targets this year. He is definitely someone who can contribute here on a very cheap deal the next two years as a 5th round pick.

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/248654-super-excited-for-this-draft-class/?do=findComment&comment=8491009 I link the above post because we are talking about production from Kincaid and my realistic projection for him as a rookie is in that post. I said in summary: "Realistic career arc projection... 2023 - (Rookie) circa 55% of the O snaps; 45 receptions; 500 yards and 4 TDs 2024 - circa 65% of the O snaps; 65 receptions; 750 yards and 5 TDs 2025 - 75-80% of the O snaps; 80 receptions; 900 yards 6 TDs And then hopefully he will hover in that 850-1,100 yards range for the following 4 or 5 seasons health permitting. Ertz had 5 years in that sort of territory (lower end of it but with much worse QB play) before the injuries and decline got him." So particularly to the bolded let's look at where he is with a game left... 64% of the O snaps; 66 receptions (Bills Rookie Record); 589 yards and 2 TDs. What do we conclude from that.... his overall production is broadly in line with my expectations. While I know it is easy to look at LaPorta's numbers with envy (860 yards and 9 TDs) it is worth saying that Kincaid is comfortably the second most productive rookie tight end (248 yards ahead of 3rd). To put it in further historical context even if Kincaid were shut out next week his current numbers put him 14th all time on the rookie tight end yardage list. It is a position that takes time. But also I think we conclude his usage has been a little different than some of us expected. The high snap count is no doubt influenced by Dawson Knox spending time on IR but also they have definitely used him more in the short yardage stuff and less on the seam routes than I expected so it is high volume, lower payoff but then maybe we should have been expecting a bit more of that, after all, Beane told us in the post draft presser that he saw him really as the Cole Beasley replacement. They also haven't got him involved in the redzone as much as I'd have liked. I have a bit of a theory there that he isn't a great short redzone option, because he isn't as physical as say Dawson Knox, who before this season had top 3 redzone production at the position the past two seasons, but I think they are missing chances in the high redzone between the 20 and the 10 to get him going underneath and see if he can make a guy miss. So overall, one game to go, It has been a good rookie season. He is clearly a guy with lots of potential. I'd want to see the kind of jump I was forecasting above in 2024 health permitting.

106 year old running backs are not a good idea. It is partly that. It is partly the type of linemen we have. It is partly Josh's ball placement on screens isn't the best and it is partly because our screens always feel telegraphed.

And if they lose they go to KC. I think there is an argument at the moment that KC are the team you want to play as mad as that sounds.

Nah this is the play where he missed Kincaid. Clean pocket, other side of the field, Shakir wide open doing handstands in the endzone.

Yea that is a McDermott and Beane strength too.

Bryant barely played. Our draft pick Alex Austin did. Maybe that is the future for the Pats. Grab our 7th round picks off the PS.

Yes. I was wrong on Douglas. I thought he was a lateral move from Jackson and Benford and at the cost of a 3rd round pick. But hands up Philly game apart he has been excellent. The Pats adjustment today was stop throwing at him. Having that shut down guy for the first time really since Tre's ACL allows the Bills to roll coverage the other side and do some disguised stuff.

And Tua went out late though not thought serious.

Everything is McDermott's fault. It is utterly ridiculous. There are things this season where he was responsible - including losing the first Pats game with his blitz heavy plan for Mac Jones. But in the GDTs most folks can't wait to say "coaching", "coaching, "coaching." Whereas what I saw today is an offense that dropped balls, a special teams that blew a punt coverage and a Quarterback that failed to see a wide open receiver in the endzone after a perfectly executed rub and threw into double coverage on a single defender deep shot. Coaching. Seriously. It is just people who have an agenda.

Fred Warner will rightly be the first team all pro at MLB. But TB43 should get votes and has a shot at 2nd team. He has been excellent and I was very very down on him. Ed Oliver should be this team's 1 first team all pro.

I mean he had Shakir wide open for TD today. Literally wide open and a clean pocket. At some point he has to see that.

I know Josh is a tough kid but if he has a separated shoulder and a broken clavicle he was hiding it well.

Sam Martin Rasul Douglas Ed Oliver Terell Bernard I'd revoke all 3 automatic balls on offense. Those 3 defensive guys are the main reason we won today.

Okay it's done now. Josh didn't get a lot of help today but he was not very good. And Lamar balled out and wrapped up the #1 seed with a 10th win over a winning record team. They are not to me MVP numbers but in a funky year he is going to be the MVP.

I give credit to the O at the end there for the 4 minute offense. But the defense won us that game. The offense went 1/3 on TDs set up by turnovers in the Pats end and the defense a TD. The offense drove the field for a score once. That won't get it done next week.

No.

Luckily not his throwing shoulder.

Okay that will do. Get Josh out of there.

Do not fumble. If we have to kick a FG so be it.

Spencer Brown almost held there. I hate that call when in FG range. 3 yards and a cloud of dust would have done.