Kirby Jackson

The new CBA makes it virtually impossible to hold out. If you are gone for 5 days you lose an accrued season. Players will see substantially bigger fines for holding out and under the new CBA the team cannot waive that fine when the player shows up. So your concern isn’t applicable under the new collective bargaining agreement. They will probably try to extend him in a couple of years but the ball is in the team’s court now. I really don’t think that the Bills spent much time thinking this over. Beane talked about the need for someone to walk in the door ready. He also talked about not being able to get high enough in the draft to get one of those guys. He tried to trade for Diggs during last season and now was able to get him. The Bills love the player. The Bills had a desperate need at the position. The Bills didn’t have the ability to get a comparable player in the draft for the same assets. He’s on an extremely team-friendly deal. I really don’t understand why people think this was difficult? If he had a shot at the top 3 maybe he would have rolled the dice but he knew that he couldn’t get one of them for the cost of the 18th pick. If your only real need is a number 1 wide receiver you should not hesitate to trade away the equivalent of pick 18 for a number 1 receiver. This holds especially true if said receiver is 26 years-old and on one of the best contracts in football for 4 more years. Each decision is different. KC traded their first round pick last year for a player and won the Super Bowl. They had a need and filled that need with a proven commodity.

You need to cut everyone some slack. We are new at having a good roster ?. We really don’t know what to do. I am going to say it loud for the people in the back. The Bills can afford (and pretty easily) to retain all of their top players. We need to understand the difference between and average annual salary and a cap hit. They are not the same and in many cases those numbers aren’t even close. They can keep Allen, Edmunds, Diggs, White, Hyde. Dawkins, Milano, etc... That does not mean that they will decide to keep all of those guys but they can. What you are going to see over the next few years is some of the older veterans turn over and get replaced by younger guys. You’ll see guys like Hughes, Addison, Star, Norman, DiMarco, Long, Feliciano, Nsekhe, Brown, Beasley, etc.. as the guys that don’t sign their next deal. They will be replaced by younger players and/or vets that were like them when they came to the Bills. Now there is some valid concern about the salary cap plateauing because of Covid. That’s a reasonable fear but it doesn’t appear likely IMO. The league is still planning on a full schedule with fans (that feels like wishful thinking but that’s the plan). Even if it is a modified version of that they won’t get hit too badly with the extra playoff games this year. Next year they add that 17th game and the players are going to be getting a bigger percentage of the revenue. The league will find other sources of revenue whether it be streaming or international money to offset any potential losses. They probably won’t get it all back at once but will put a dent in it if it gets to that point. Lastly, they will do what teams have done, and kick the can down the road if necessary. They aren’t going to drop the cap $75M for 2021 despite Schefter’s speculation. It’s just not logistically possible with the guy’s teams have under contract. In the absolute worst-case scenario they will spread those potential losses over a few years (maybe 5) and then find new/more revenues to offset them. The cap is $209M this year. I’ll go on record as being surprised if we see it below $200M at any point. As an aside, I just stumbled across this 2021 salary cap health breakdown that Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap did. Figured it fits well in this discussion: https://overthecap.com/2021-nfl-team-by-team-salary-cap-health/ After a quick glance at 2021 I think that it’s likely that the following guys won’t be on the roster after this year: Hughes or Addison (only 1), Butler, Lee Smith, Hauschka, and Long. Then I think that Matakevich and/or Klein are maybes. The rough projected cap space was $52.7M before these moves. With just the “likely” guys going that number moves to about $77M. If you bring in the 2 maybes the number goes to $82.5Mish. Again these are estimates but as you can see the Bills are in a good spot.

This is why we can’t have nice things

Oh I think that they could regress but I’m not sure that they can win less than 10 games no matter what. They could take a step back, and a fairly significant one and be an 11 or 12 win team. The AFC South and the NFC East isn’t exactly murder’s row. Add the Pats to that and their path is pretty clear. I think that their division is better but even if they go 4-2 there and lose to the Chiefs there aren’t a lot more losses floating out there.

Baltimore has the easiest SOS in the NFL.

The difference is Diggs is a proven commodity. If any of the other 3 get to his level we will call them a success. How long until they get there? The Bills window is right now. Even if one of those guys becomes great it was a good move. The risk and cost was greater than with Diggs. The chances are extremely long that all 3 end up better than Diggs. So it wouldn’t even be about trading up it would be about trading up (which cost more than Diggs) AND finding the guy that’s better. The juice was definitely not worth the squeeze which is why it made so much sense. If I’m wrong I’ll own it but the chances of looking back at this as a “bad deal” for the Bills are extremely slim (to none). Now if we want to judge any guys picked from 22 and after we are still assuming that we would have picked the right one if one ends up better. As an example, if Michael Pittman becomes a star we shouldn’t regret this trade unless he was going to be the selection not an option. It’s like the year that the Bills didn’t take Michael Thomas. They didn’t take Treadwell or Doctson either who went before Thomas. We can’t just retroactively select the most successful guy and say that’s what we should have done. You don’t get the benefit of hindsight while drafting. You do get the benefit of a resume though when trading for Diggs.

I think that the Bills were in a position where they needed a number 1 receiver, not “a” receiver. They gave up the equivalent of pick 18 to get a number 1 on a team-friendly deal. The cost to move up for one of those potential #1’s was greater than Diggs. This trade is a no-brainer in the situation that the Bills were in.

I’d try to do EXACTLY what the Cowboys have done. They have something like 9 of their best 10 players under contract through 2022. I would sacrifice contracts for guys like Klein, Butler, Long, Murphy, DiMarco, Norman, etc.. and play young guys there. I’d attempt to lock up Tre, Dawkins, Milano, Edmunds, Oliver, Allen (hopefully), and Diggs. Keep your stars and fill out the middle and back of your roster with young players.

Most of these guys made a lot more than that at the elite programs (and I say this only half-jokingly).

If I understand it correctly the rankings are their likelihood to win the Super Bowl based on the model. On paper the Bills have an easier schedule than the Pats which is why they are division favorites but not ahead of them in terms of the Super Bowl. FWIW, I’m on record as the Pats being a 6 win team but that’s the logic I think. I agree here but give Pittsburgh and Cleveland slight chances at the Super Bowl. Things would have to go right in both cases but it isn’t impossible IMO. I’d give them combined less than a 5% chance I think (certainly less than 10%).

Very well said and I think that this gets lost when looking at the draft. You talked about Shaq and at this point he is a perfect example of this. Shaq is a quality defensive lineman. He’s going to get you 8 sacks(ish) and be good against the run. He’s not going to command double teams and be in the backfield every play. You look at him as a first rounder and are like, “he’s okay.” If he was picked in the 2nd round we’d feel it was a nice pick. The Maybin example is the exact opposite. He was never going to be a “quality defensive lineman.” He was going to be a beast as a pass rusher or be out of the league. That just feels awfully risky/stupid in the top half of the 1st round. Give me the guy, that at worst contributes, and at best is a star. That’s why Allen wasn’t my guy going into the draft. I didn’t hate him as a prospect but it scared me. In hindsight, I was wrong. He’s a better athlete and leader than I expected which made his floor higher than I realized. He wasn’t nearly as risky as some of us thought because his physical tools are so good that he was going to make a lot of plays with his arm and legs. Josh certainly could have made plenty of mistakes but he was never going to be Paxton Lynch because his tools were too good.

Remember how much and how early @thebandit27 was on the Mahomes train? That’s pretty impressive in hindsight.

Oh I agree 100%. The middle and back of their roster will be filled with young players. The Cowboys won’t have that vet depth that a lot of teams crave. That’s something that the Bills have mastered at this point (although their cap situation is the reason). In 3 years I would think that the Bills may have a similar roster or they made some hard decisions. The Bills may decide, for example, to let someone like Singletary go after his first deal. They may make the decision that the money be better used spread across multiple guys. The Cowboys basically committed to all of their good players and are riding with them good or bad.

But they’ve drafted extremely well so it offsets it. They will have to continue to do so. They don’t have tough decisions to make on core players. The Bills example that I used earlier is that they have to use a guy like Vosean Joseph instead of paying AJ Klein $6M. The Cowboys aren’t going to have hardly any mid-priced vets. They are going to play young guys in those spots. The Bills have a lot of guys like Klein, Murphy, Feliciano, Long, Norman, DiMarco, Nsekhe, Butler, Williams, etc.. that the Cowboys won’t have. Those are the types of guys that they will have to play young guys instead of. They aren’t in a position where they have to get rid of guys like Tre, Edmunds, Milano, Diggs, Etc... Those types of players are already under contract for multiple years. The Cowboys have 7 players on the top 100 that Prisco just did. All 7 of those guys will be under contract for at least 3 more years once Dak signs. Their best players aren’t going anywhere.

Just to be clear I’m not sure he is a championship caliber QB. I’ve also been pretty clear that at this point he’s more deserving of the big contract than Wentz, Goff, Jimmy G, Tannehill, etc.. We didn’t object nearly as much to them getting paid yet they are inferior players. Dak being with the Cowboys is a big reason why he is being downplayed here. I was thinking about starting a thread to rank the QBs for 2020 and then ranking the QBs over the next 5 years. I figured that I’d rather be in the pool though than debating between who will be better in 5 years Goff or Jimmy G. It’s interesting to think about though and is relevant to the discussion. I would think that Dak would be in the top 10 in both groups but don’t think top 5 in either.

It may be. It’s the old Kirk Cousins strategy. It’s certainly riskier now with the uncertainty of 2020 revenue. The cap goes up every year but maybe not now?

I keep asking but who is Dallas going to lose when Dak signs his contract? 9 of their best 10 players are under contract for at least the next 3 years. Dallas isn’t making any sacrifices to pay Dak. He knows that. Honestly it was pretty brilliant to sign last. Usually a QB signs first and the team tries to leverage other players coming back to get the QB to take less. The Cowboys have done everyone else first except Vander Esch and he will be next year. Dak wants 4 years. The Cowboys want 5. That’s the holdup.

Brown could lose some reps I suppose. Beasley plays when they are in a 3 wide and he is in the slot. I don’t foresee that changing when they go to 3 wide. He plays a different position than Davis.

They lost 4 games when scoring 22 plus points. For comparison sake the Bills won every game when they scored at least 18 points. That’s coaching. The “about the team“ argument is not valid. This isn’t little league. This is their career!! Every single one of us wants to get as much as we can at our job. There is not an exception amongst us. We don’t begrudge the lawyer that goes to another firm for more money because he isn’t putting the “team” at his old firm first. We need to stop holding athletes to the same double standard. Dak made an average of $1.225M in each of his 4 years as a starter ($4.9M total) and has produced a 40-24 record. He’s been more than fair when it comes to money. Now, like with all good QBs, it’s his turn to get paid.

I honestly don’t think Dak is great. He’s certainly very good and there are a lot metrics to support it. Saying 20 QBs are better doesn’t make it true. There is plenty of quantifiable data to support him being a top 10ish QB. He is 40-24 as a starter and has 118 TDs to 45 turnovers. At any rate though go ahead and name the 20 QBs that are better and make sure to include Dalton.

We all need to understand that “average per year” does not equate to “cap hit per year.” In terms of roster building the cap hit is what matters when trying to retain everyone else. As an example Amari Cooper averages $20M a year. His cap hit this year is $12M.

See I don’t see Beasley losing any reps. Those other receivers playing will be on the outside. I suppose that they could slide Diggs inside but I don’t see that at the expense of Beasley. It may be with Beasley in a 4 wide set.

Good topic @BisonMan and some good answers so far too. I’m going to go Brown I think. Was last year a “coming out party” or a result of circumstance? I still think that he will be productive but more in the 700 yards and 5 TD range.

Murphy has a tough job in that he followed a HOF voice. He was the QB after Kelly. Van Miller was a legend that could harness the energy and paint the picture. It is a real talent and gift. Murphy isn’t that. He’s gotten better as the play-by-play guy each year. He will never be better than adequate because he doesn’t have the tone or the instincts. Radio is a tough gig. With that being said Murphy loves the Bills. He’s a WNY guy through and through. That’s important to me when it comes to my team’s broadcast. I want guys that have the emotional investment, not guys hired into developing it. Buffalo has always had that and I’m thankful for it.

If you believe this you haven’t been paying attention. Collins, Smith and Martin are under contract for multiple years. They just drafted Biadasz to play center since Frederick retired. Why is the OL suffering? Its the same guys for at least 3 seasons.