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Everything posted by ctk232
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Cool Detailed Analysis - Zay Jones
ctk232 replied to Billsfan1972's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
That is an incredibly important distinction for a lot of people to realize on this board, not just in reference to Zay. While speed can help create separation, the two are not equivalents, nor do you necessarily need speed to do well in creating separation. Word - though we'll kill ourselves playing that game with the drafts...happens to every team, every year. No one really knew at the time either, despite our preliminary thoughts being ultimately correct. Appreciate the comparison, but even with the similar rates we're still comparing apples to oranges here. Different NFL, different Bills, different offensive schemes, almost entirely different context. Not to mention Moulds is not Zay and vice versa. I always have issues with these player comparisons for that reason whether they be good or bad, Zay or not, so much goes into why the stats looked this way. Ties into the discussions around certain players not performing based on x, y, z stats - if the player's role in the scheme in place is to produce in areas that don't show in the stat box, you can't exactly measure their worth or impact solely based on stats. Which leads me into: ^this exactly. Just from the past two seasons, most of the issues this board has with Zay in someway tie back to the trade up to get him, and/or comparison with JuJu, and/or his inability to be a WR1. If we look back, the trade up scenario is completely on the FO and to place expectations on the player from that event isn't accurate in the slightest - FO's make mistakes in judgment all the time. But for me I never saw Zay fulfilling a WR1 or even WR2 role in an NFL offense, much less ours. He was a stud slot receiver who shined in a role he hasn't really played since arriving here - not to mention in his first two years, he's had Taylor, Peterman, Allen, Anderson, and Barkley throwing to him. I say this only to highlight wtaf were our expectations for him? And why do we feel he's done after two years of little to no efficacious data? Overall, within the context of him being a primary slot receiver with WR2 role potential, and removing the comparisons to JuJu and the trade up to get him, he's progressed well and if he continues to do so, could very well be a key component to our corps we desperately need. Could be wrong, but I'd like to actually see him utilized more in the roles he's fit to play and within reasonable context and see whether he'll be a longterm aspect of the corps. But all the draft complaints surrounding him and griping for missing out on JuJu should be solely directed at the FO. -
Exactly. Might just be the symmetry of it, but if Edmunds continues to develop I love the idea of having an elite player at each level of our defense all at roughly the same age. If we're really building a team for the future, it always helps to have that reliable foundation filled by a player per position/skill group. And while I wouldn't hate either Harry or Jordan breaking out to be that guy on the DL (however likely/unlikely that may be), I wouldn't feel our 9th would be wasted in the least if we ultimately go with an exceptional DL talent (barring trade back considerations). Not to mention they would all be a year apart for planning out contract negotiations and cap considerations down the line. But I appreciate the step-back perspective to the offseason here. I get everyone is all hyped on the offensive need train, but we can't conflate that need with our 9th overall pick. In all honesty, should we stay put, I'm not sure there is an offensive player in this draft I'd take with the 9th pick over what defensive talent will likely still be there. Not to mention, the idea of White/Edmunds/Oliver or whoever shaping the foundation of our defense for the next however many years sounds really nice to me.
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How can we not be all in on Metcalf now?
ctk232 replied to Hebert19's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Right? Forgive me, but when did you not need to be able to change direction and not need elite agility to be coined an "athletic freak?" Did I miss the memo where athletes will no longer be evaluated in their ability to change direction? A key component to any sport? I get he's exceptional in the power tests and single-vector tests, but a more complete and "athletic freak" to me is someone who can change direction at that size. I don't think it's where the conversation starts and stops with Metcalf as it's pretty silly to arm-chair judge the guy on this one characteristic - but it would be equally short-sighted to overlook this key component to his game, especially at the position of WR. Agreed - I'm honestly more up on Harry and Butler than I am for Metcalf as a WR prospect. Barring a trade back scenario, I'm not sure there's a WR worth taking at 9 this year over a BPA of OL/DL. I'd much rather we get our line guy (preferably offensive but we'll see where the value falls as Burns, Oliver, or others may end up as BPA there), and then get either Harry or Butler in the second if they make it that far. Given a trade back scenario, I could easily see us picking up one or the other late in the first/early second and still managing to fill out OL/DL. -
Word - maybe I'll be proven wrong in the time between now and the draft, but I still can't get past these agility issues in the grand scheme of his athletic freakishness. There's a reason his production was the way it was during his College career, even when taking into consideration his injury. I had to go back to watch more games on him, which wasn't even the sample size I was really hoping to find, and most of his key production came on streak/seam/N-S routes with very little to no lateral movement. On the routes he was asked to run with key single moves, he was late to the spot and often times the ball was already out or he was passed over in the QB's read. I can see the argument for his athletic upside, but if we pick him at 9 and hypothetically solidify our TE position w/ James and a 2nd rounder. I don't see many pass catching options on our team that can spread the field and especially be threats over the middle beyond Foster, Zay, and McKenzie. Duke appears to be a vertical threat with at least some mobility, but with DK it seems we're committing to the long ball or short routes every play schematically, leaving very little room for middle-depth throws. I'm no expert so obviously I could be all wrong on this, and we have yet to even get through FA, but if our pass catching options don't change all that dramatically in terms of options, we may not have the production needed to turn this offense around, and be one more top ten pick that didn't pan out for the value. I'd ideally like to trade back if we could, but if we can't and Metcalf were somehow still there in the 2nd for us, I'd be a bit more easy to coming around to him, but at 9 seems high...why not just target Butler if we can in the 2nd or late 1st depending on how FA and Day 1 goes? I could honestly see him as the WR with better upside. Not sure if he mocked this before or after, but supposedly the jags will be offering/signing Foles next week at the onset.
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Who would you take, D. K. or T. J.?
ctk232 replied to Peace Frog's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Yep, big guy who can't cut - kind of need that to be an effective WR in the NFL regardless of your size. That being said, honestly not sure I'd go for either at 9 nor would I absolutely hate either. As a big pass catching target if we're going one to one, TJ would be the more holistic football player capable of impacting our offense. But would still all depend on FA up until the draft and how these guys rise and fall on boards. There's just something about Metcalf that's giving me a red flag and it might just be the one-dimensional freak athlete. -
I could see where you would think that, and tit for tat I would give the nudge to Agholor over Zay at present. But that would only really be based off of his performance last year. I may be sometime removed from my Philly home now, but I wouldn't actually find Agholor to provide much more upside worth any trade...there's a reason he's "available" despite his performance. He's always had issues with hands and inconsistency with elusiveness. When he was drafted, the Eagles had a severe need to re-shape their corps as it was essentially just Jordan Matthews and then Agholor at the time. He had a rough first two years, and his roster spot was in question at that time wondering if he'd ever pan out, much less be the draft pick they were hoping he'd be (starting to sound like the Zay Jones story?). The Eagles made moves for Alshon to be the bigger and better target for them, added depth, and then needed even more trading for Golden Tate in their hopes for a playoff run again this year. Agholor will never be a key piece in their roster, and making him available via trade makes it seem like the Eagles would like to keep Tate if they can rather than see how he develops toward the end of his rookie contract. I will concede Agholor's production has progressed the past two seasons, but if we're looking to add a guy who went 64/97 for some 700 odd yards - I'd rather we stick with Foster who is looking to be what the Eagles hoped Agholor would be.
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Pretty much - I have a high pick and would almost certainly possibly entertain the idea of maybe perhaps trading back if a potentially good offer presents itself....said every GM with a first round pick ever. Every pick is for sale until it's not - Jets GM saying this is about as meaningful as any pre-draft talk from any FO.
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Bills rumored to be a suitor for OG Roger Saffold
ctk232 replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Was scrolling waiting to see this, otherwise I would've posted it myself. Wonder how much impact Kromer had on his resurgence as well. -
I'd actually disagree with you there - while his more immediate impact could be felt at OG/OT, Risner's performance at Center in the Senior Bowl workouts and demonstrated intelligence for the position and OL (coupled with that aggressive and highly physical play style) would make him a really great pick overall, but even for Center. He'd be a starting option for us along the OL with utility potential and ability. It'd honestly be ideal, given that we can't address every need in FA, and while even some of those FA pick ups won't pan out, Risner has the ability to address most every position along the OL - only thing I couldn't really comment on is his versatility of right v. left OL play.
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Would say he looks more like a Shady given the open space usage, just without the consistency throughout his career. No, just...no. In general, I'd say most RBs could fit this list due to OL play and if they ever left their team - heck, I'd even throw in DeMarco Murray as an example. Ran incredibly well behind a stout OL in Dallas, never really made it back after leaving. Advertising for always building from the trenches and drafting OL Also, in relation to this credit to Gailey for being able to maximize Spiller in that year by scheming well to his advantages. Always helps an RB to look better in a system that actually schemes for their talents.
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Is it inconceivable for the Bills to trade for OBJ?
ctk232 replied to Tipster19's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
For how long though really? I don't doubt that could be the case for some time, and he could have a turning-the-page moment in his career where he begins to mature more. But what if he doesn't see the results fast enough for him? The more pertinent point is the established culture being maintained around him. OBJ has shown he is an emotional guy who wears it on his sleeve in some pretty interesting ways, to say the least, but seems a bit more off-kilter in his priorities than say a similar personality in AB. This again could be maturity issues, and something that could literally change in a season. That all said, I could easily see Beane doing his due diligence here and seeing what it would take - but his judicious nature would likely lead him more toward FA and especially the draft to pick up his WR talent. -
Is it inconceivable for the Bills to trade for OBJ?
ctk232 replied to Tipster19's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Anything to fit the narrative...what a time we live in. -
What do you want to see this offseason: Free Agency
ctk232 replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
While I like Jesse James, going to have to disagree with ya here for Williams. Apologies for the long-winded response forthcoming... While Williams wouldn't be a downgrade in terms of options for Allen, he certainly wouldn't be the upgrade you've pegged him to be here either. Especially considering the paycheck we'd have to give him to get him here as he's made it public he's seeking WR1 money, despite regressing since his 2016 season. Where I differ here is I don't believe he's actually done anything to demonstrate he deserves that kind of money and responsibility in an offense. Granted, if his strengths lie in stretching the field, then perhaps there may be jaded conversation surrounding his recent performances considering Rivers' arm strength. But I sincerely doubt that being the case, and to that end, to put up the middling numbers he has the past couple of seasons under a River's led Chargers offense that has always had a solid running game, and other receiving targets during his tenure to allow Williams to shine more, is pretty telling in terms of his current ability and production. He has seen about 20 fewer targets per season since his 1000+ yd performance in 2016, but As for the deep threat - I'd actually say there is more potential upside with Duke fulfilling this role, as our only barometer for his play thus far is from the CFL and in a more dominant manner. I'd take his potential as a deep threat over William's demonstrated, and translatable, performance. Simply put, he's just not worth the money we'd have to spend for the production he'd ultimately provide. Beyond preferring Duke for the deep threat role, I'd much prefer most any of the WRs in this draft as an addition to the corps over Williams as each would provide more potential upside for a fraction of the price. -
I should also clarify - I have nothing against a predominantly young group of WRs, albeit, equally weighing their performance as well. But the effects can be felt for the lack of a truly competent veteran presence that neither KB nor Holmes could ever really hope to provide. Hopefully Hall can provide some of this from the coaches perspective. While not a top tier signing/pick-up, he has at least demonstrated his ability to perform under multiple offenses, QBs, and teams, and should be worth signing for the right price.
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Exactly - right now, our most veteran receiver (outside of Deonte) would be Duke. I'm not sure Deonte provides the veteran role in the corps that Garcon could potentially provide. But all within reasonable context - no one should expect Garcon to fill a #1 role, but for the right price could easily provide greater upside and guidance to the existing group of WRs. I'm not sure he'll command a large amount, but for the right price I wouldn't mind seeing this happen.
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What do you expect from Trent Murphy in 2019?
ctk232 replied to GreggTX's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Interesting point - barring injury concerns with Murphy, I could see us keeping both and drafting a pass rusher, and keeping all three. Again, don't know the specifics of his contact, but for Murph it looks like he'd cost 3.5 against this year, and half that the following year. He's guaranteed 2.5 plus a 500k signing bonus this year so in the grand scheme of things I'm not sure they would care to let him go, again barring injury. It'll be more interesting with Shaq and his 5th year option. Shaq is going to cost about the same (~3.5 mil against) for this year. Drafting a third and going through the next year wouldn't be out of the question given the cap cushion. While McD's scheme of rotating DL guys is more heavily focused on the interior, I can see cause for keeping both and adding a pass rusher this year to identify a solid group going forward. Shaq has shown willingness and ability to convert from a 5 to 3 tech which, in my mind, adds value to McD's scheme for the DL. It's all speculation, but if we're sitting pretty at 9 with no trade down offers, it may be the case an interior DL guy becomes our BPA, versus an edge rusher or WR/OL, and I couldn't see why they would pass up the opportunity to add someone here. But it depends firstly on FA, and secondly how Beane and scouts approach BPA for us this year in assessing player value. -
Right? And even if he was trying to do so in-game why would it matter? Baseball teams usually have a player or coach designated to try and steal the opposing teams signs, and the runner on second always checks the catchers signs and relays to the batter. It's called competitive sports. Now if he gathered evidence of opposing teams playcall signs in an illegal manner, go get him.
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Couldn't agree more - I mean, the difference b/t rexy and mcd is night and day, but clearly played into Gilmore's perspective here.
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Brandon Beane letter to Season Ticket Holders
ctk232 replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
We know better than to read too much into this - but I'm curious what may have been said and what the take aways were from those meetings with Josh, Edmunds, and Tre for their offseason plans/goals to meet. Anything from the typical offseason curriculum and workout plan to hopefully team leadership plans for the future in establishing that foundation he keeps talking about. Also curious if he invited any other guys into similar conversations to keep as pieces moving forward. Of course, we'll never know but it's the offseason so nothing else to think about until mid-march. -
Warren Sharp breaks down why the Rams lost the Super Bowl
ctk232 replied to HappyDays's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
To me, this will forever be the counter to anyone claiming the need is for young, offensive minded coaches, with modern offensive gameplans - and something I mentioned on another thread in regards to personal takeaways from the game. Above everything else that happened Sunday, the above quoted is all I saw. While I don't entirely disagree with the sentiment of needing more unique/"modern" packages and looks to provide scheming issues league wide (as not every coach is Belly), the concept of having a set system can hamstring a team to the point of competitive disadvantage. This was not the best Cheatriots team to win it all, and I'd actually argue it wasn't by a long shot, but what they did have was a roster full of players who adhered to a system that constantly changed based upon their opponent. I get the base 4-3/3-4 systems in place throughout the league and the variations that can come of it, but the idea of scheming for your opponent week-in and week-out even if it means deviating from your core system seems to be an illogical exercise in futility at best. This average and aged Pats team beat out the two teams that were league darlings the entire year and two teams that half this board lamented we couldn't share more in common, but for all the modern packages and schemes employed, an extremely talented defensive mind and players who were trained to execute new systems every week, were able to effectively counter what stumped nearly the rest of the league. Before I sound too much like a sympathizer here, I absolutely can't stand Brady or Belly and especially can't stand those fairweather fans. And don't even get me started on how ESPN and the NFL have coddled them for the past 10 years. But I have to respect what Belly has accomplished in his career by remaining dominant in coaching and employing schemes that win, down to the detail, and the players that put it into action. So would we have seen a different outcome if McVay abandoned his guns and switched more to a 12 personnel set? Likely, and it likely would've been more interesting to watch, but he didn't, and his team suffered - for all he's accomplished and been lauded for as an offensive genius in the league, this is a pretty piss poor mistake to make at any age as an HC in the NFL, and in the most important game of the sport. -
Exactly like that - reminded me of the wild card game against the jags last year, where it was the first defense to break. Honestly what I saw more of last night was a coach's battle b/t Belly/Flores and McVay/Wade, where McVay couldn't scheme adequately for Gurley's injury and inability to establish the play action for Goff. What actualized this is also demonstrative of the coaches, as the Pats players simply executed the coach's scheme better. Belly and Flores had both sides of the ball executing, Wade had his defense keeping pace as long as they could, and the Rams offense just never responded nor did it capitalize on the few chances it did get. Belly and Flores schemed a defense that made Goff a one-dimensional QB who couldn't rely on play action and as a young QB in the SB, that's a lot to ask for. While Wade schemed a great defense to keep Brady from scoring, the Pats were still able to keep their offense on the field for longer, leaving the Rams defense gassed and sure enough, gave up the first formal score. I hate that the Pats won for many reasons, and while many will find last night's game boring, I enjoyed watching smart football executed well. While many will disagree, smart and adaptive week-to-week scheming by the coaches and a team's ability to adapt week-in and week-out will beat out a singular system with even the most elite players and coaches if they can't effectively adapt or respond. Smart football will always beat out sexy modern schemes regardless of what they are, but for as much as I don't like the man, you have to respect Belly for being the reason why it's not as simple as everyone might believe to just find a QB, young offensive coach, and a "modern" system - while that certainly has it's benefits. I would've been curious to see this matchup in a couple years after Goff and McVay have more experience. Who knows, maybe Goff can only excel in a play action scheme with the league's arguably best RB and OL.
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Would rather have Risner or Bradbury (in that order) if we're drafting for Center. I'd also prefer Risner over Jonah at any OL position in all honesty. Regardless of whether Jonah can or can't play OT in the NFL, or whether he'd be a better OG, neither is worth a top ten pick on him given the draft talent. Risner and Lindstrom would be pretty great to see, but doubtful without giving up a WR pick in the second.