"especially with the schedule ahead" i covered this in another thread. the schedule (aside from maybe the Pats, who we play ever year) doesn't mean anything. teams change from year to year. just because they're competitive one year doesn't mean it's going to carry over to the next. so while you think we're 5-11, (however you got to that number who cares), the teams that you're forecasting as "good," probably won't be as good, just as the gimmes are never gimmes. this is why gamblers aren't millionaires.
found it:
PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE RESULTS.
Let's pretend it's Jan 2016. We look at our upcoming 2016-2017 schedule against 2015's records.
2015 record 2016 results
Pats (12-4): W, L
Jets (10-6): L, W
Miami (6-10): L, L
Cinci (12-4) W
Pitt (10-6) L Balt (5-11) L
Cleve (3-13) W
Cards (13-3) W
Sea (10-6) L
LA (7-9) W
SF (5-11) W
Jags (5-11) W Raiders (7-9) L
We beat previous 13-3, 12-4 (Brady-less), 12-4, and 10-6 teams. We lost to previous 7-9, 5-11, and 6-10 (twice) teams. There's no way to accurately predict any of this from the previous year. Too many variables. So you look at the 2017 schedule and what? You know that OAK is going to be good again? That DEN isn't just a middling 9-7 team without a QB? That the LA Chargers are going to do ANYTHING? That anyone in the NFC South isn't a one-year fluke (CAR, ATL). Btw, ATL pulled a NE by beating down a weak division (5-1 in the NFC S) to a first rd bye and home field.