jletha

https://www.nfeloapp.com/analysis/expected-points-added-epa-nfl/ Expected points added "EPA" is explained very well here. It really boils down to the fact that in any down & distance scenario you have a chance of punting, FG or TD. The further away you are from the EZ the lower your probability of scoring are but those probabilities rise as you get closer to the EZ. They also will rise and fall based on down. So being in 1st and 10 from the opponent 30 is different than being in 3rd and 10, one will have a much higher probability of FG which is less points. On any given play if you increase your teams chances of scoring then you have added to the "expected points" your team will score on a drive. So instead of looking at total yards on a play, it factors in situation. eg, getting 5 yards on 3rd and 4 means you got a first down and increase EPA while getting 5 yards on 3rd and 6 means your punting or settling for a FG so your EPA would drop. Its not predictive of championships, its a QB stat mostly but also a team stat to an extent. But the QBs with high EPA and EPA/play are considered "good" and they generally win more games. But the playoffs, being one-and-done are much too volatile to be able to predict by any model. https://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/season/2017/seasontype/2/sort/cwepaTotal/dir/desc This page has total EPA by season if you want to take a look. Spoiler: Brady, Brees, Rogers, Manning are often at the top.

Allen is #1 or #2 (depending on model) for total EPA over the season even with the turnovers. EPA is really all that matters at the end of the day, since the goal is to score points.

"Coming in Peace" posts are the absolute worst.

We suck...just less than all of the other teams.

on designed runs Josh is still lethal but Miami did hold his scrambles well. I can only remember 1 designed run from the Mia game that went for ~10 yards. I think we will see more against Cincy.

He absolutely could have and should have come back to the ball. It was a tight throw for sure, but I didnt see any clearly better options on the throw. But he should have worked back to Josh.

Ravens can also get home with 4, Im not sure our D-line can do that consistently with their O-line banged up.

Its possible (although nobody knows for sure) that Dorsey told Josh "if you see Cover 0 go deep". Maybe unlikely but possible.

A lot of it is mis-remembering the last few games + playoff games as the season. The offense is better or as good this year in almost every metric. It looks different but its the same. Many ups and downs. I tend to think its Josh and his 2020 season is more of the abnormal, these last two are normal. But Im also fine with that because we win a lot.

I like EPA/play because it is agnostic of how you move the ball, just that it gets moved.

I believe they also went: Lost in AFC Champ Game, Lost in AFC Divisional Round in the two years preceding their first SB appearance.

McK was not at practice today.

yes also this. I only mentioned the secondary because it was more about Hill and Waddle.

I believe he is talking about what should be *Miami's* gameplan. Not Buffalo

The first game was unique in that it was Hyde's first game out, Poyer was out, and Jackson was out.

He was limited.

Massive disparity in team health on Wednesday

Sometimes these random rumors are correct though...like with Beasley.

*IF* this it Hyde news the timeline does matchup with what he said in a recent BN article (https://buffalonews.com/sports/ryan-ohalloran-could-bills-safety-micah-hyde-return-in-postseason-after-neck-surgery/article_0be8e698-85ef-11ed-8586-0fb296488d85.html) This article was posted exactly two weeks ago. My guess would be that he gets off of IR this week and then would play in the divisional round. Again, *IF*

Literally two weeks ago to the day a BN article had quotes from Hyde saying something along the lines of "We will see what they say in two weeks"

Mostert does have a broken hand so its not confirmed he will be playing.

Davis will be out there and needs to be, but I wouldnt mind limiting snaps for McK and having Brown-Beasley more.

They may have to leave McK inactive and elevate Brown and Beasley. McK is caught inbetween. Not a true slot guy, not a burner, not big enough to block like Davis.

Concussions arent something you can power through. A week makes a difference.