mjt328

You've pinpointed it exactly. Picking a QB in the first round is never the safest option. If you fail and get someone like EJ Manuel, it probably means 3-4 years of losing, followed by a start-over in the front office/coaching staff. If you play it safe, it usually means having a "talented roster" constantly pulled down by mediocre veteran QB play. But if you succeed, your team is set for 10-15 years with a franchise QB.

I was OK with us going after Sam Bradford. But I'm glad we didn't offer him that much. Yikes.

Again. It's not about being a "can't miss" future Hall of Famer. There is no such thing. Even Andrew Luck has been a relative disappointment (mostly due to injuries). If you are waiting for a QB prospect without flaws, you will be sitting around forever.

We could land the next Ray Lewis at #12, and that pick would still be a massive failure. When scouting a college player (especially a QB), it's not all about the "numbers" and trying to find a guy with "wow" statistics. It's all about building an overall picture on a prospect, then making an educated guess on how that translates to the next level. If this year's QB Class doesn't work for you, I don't know what you are waiting for. The last perfect/flawless prospect to enter the NFL was Andrew Luck in 2012. Before that, you are probably looking at Peyton Manning in 1998. Before that, probably John Elway in 1983. By that trend, it will probably be 2027 before we see another QB prospect of that caliber. They just don't come along very often. When you compare this year's QB Class against others, it's clear this one is pretty good. Against last year, I would guess that Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen would be rated above anyone in the 2013, 2014, 2016 or 2017 drafts. To me, it's a toss-up between those guys and Jameis Winston. That's just looking at the past 5 seasons. If you would rather have an extra LB or DT (or whatever) instead of one of the better QB prospects in the last 5 years - then I'm glad you aren't running our front office.

The Bills receivers aren't as terrible as many of you believe. They have just been stuck in an offense that focused on running first (and second), with a quarterback who didn't like to challenge defenses downfield. A receiver can only be as good as the person throwing to him. Kelvin Benjamin is a legitimate #1 target. Zay Jones was a top prospect and is only in his second year. Sure. It's not a group to get crazy excited about. But it's also not one that we need to press the "panic button" over. Get the Quarterback first. Then make sure his blocking is good. Then watch our receivers magically start playing better.

Agree totally with this statement about Sam Bradford's ability. He's a good quarterback. Unfortunately, his health is a roll of the dice. He could go down in the preseason (Kevin Kolb all over again) and nobody would be surprised in the slightest. At the end of the day, there aren't many good options out there. At least, not if you are hoping to actually win games this season. Some people are willing to chalk up 2018 as a lost-cause, since we are likely to be starting a rookie for a good portion of games. Those people are willing to settle for Josh McCown, Matt Moore or Mike Glennon at a lower salary. But the Bills are hoping to compete for the playoffs again this year.

This is an underestimated part of roster building, which has only been true since the rookie wage scale was implemented in 2011. Teams that can land a franchise QB in the draft have 4-5 years to spend big in Free Agency, before they are strapped down with a monster contract. Seattle was able to take advantage of this for a few years, before they were forced to pay Russell Wilson. Now they are purging vets left and right. You can currently see the Rams and Eagles taking advantage of building around Jarod Goff and Carson Wentz. In about 2 years, the window will be closed.

Everyone needs to calm down. At this time of year, 90% of the "leaks" put out by teams is total garbage and meant to disguise their true intentions. The Bills are targeting the Quarterback position. That much is certain. They are not content with one of the secondary prospects who could have dropped to #21 like Mason Rudolph. That much is also certain. Exactly who they are after is a total mystery. There may be more than one guy they like. It's possible they haven't decided yet. With that said... Based on everything I've read and watched myself, the top two guys (in my opinion) are clearly Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen. They reach all the marks physically and mentally. They had very good college careers and show well on film. They can make every kind of NFL throw. They work well in the pocket. Overall, they seem to be the safest bets, while also offering a large amount of upside. Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson all offer very high upside. Maybe even higher than Darnold or Rosen. But they are also greater risks. Allen and Jackson because of their accuracy and mechanics. Mayfield because of his size. No doubt these guys would be strong 1st Round selections, but I can't see any NFL teams passing on high upside/low risk for high upside/high risk. I think once it gets closer to mid/late April, this will start becoming clear and Darnold/Rosen will be heavy favorites to go first.

Personally, I think it's good for the Bills in the long run. 1. Kirk Cousins is a good QB. This keeps him in the NFC, and especially away from the AFC East. He would have made the Jets a much better team. 2. Regardless of what happens in Free Agency, I'm convinced the Bills are trading into the Top 3. That would put us ahead of the Broncos and Jets, so it really doesn't matter if they signed Cousins or not.

I would think that would be common sense. And yet, there is a post on this board assuming we won't pick Josh Rosen because he is Jewish.

Not sure why anyone would be surprised about this. 1. Suh fits the Bills defense perfectly, and would slide into our biggest need (outside of Quarterback). 2. Since he was cut and not an Unrestricted Free Agent, he won't count against the Compensation Pick formula, which Beane is clearly following. As a Christian myself, a find it hilarious that people think Sean McDermott only wants choir boys on his team. The guys wants to win. Yes, he clearly values high character in players. But that doesn't mean he's going to disregard every player that isn't religious or quiet and humble. Suh plays with a vicious mean-streak and has a history as a dirty player. But he keeps it all on the field, and doesn't seem like the type who will be out doing drugs (Dareus) or beating his girlfriend.

I've been very skeptical since the beginning (mostly because I've been burned watching the Bills front office in the past). But the pieces are really starting to fall in place. And what I'm seeing is actually pretty brilliant. 1. The Bills got an extra 1st Rounder by trading down in last year's draft. They still managed to land Tre White, who was possibly the best defensive rookie in the entire NFL last year. 2. The Bills got an extra 2nd Rounder by trading away Sammy Watkins, who continued to disappoint in Los Angeles. The Rams just let him walk, and the Chiefs just gave him a ridiculous contract that Beane wouldn't have matched in a million years. We also got a nice 1-year rental out of EJ Gaines, and could end up with a 3rd Round Compensation Pick if he signs a big deal himself. 3. The Bills got an extra 3rd Rounder for Ronald Darby. Reports had been circulating all off-season that Darby didn't fit our defense and was struggling, and at the end of the day, we really didn't miss him. And we may get another Comp Pick if Jordan Matthews signs a decent contract. 4. The Bills got an extra 3rd Rounder for Tyrod Taylor, a QB they didn't want and a player that many felt we were going to cut outright. 5. The Bills got the equivalent of 2nd Round value for Cordy Glenn, which was pretty good for a guy coming off a major foot injury. Besides, we already had his replacement on the roster in Dion Dawkins. Now we are in striking distance of getting a Top 3 draft pick. At this point, the Bills could realistically move into a position to draft the first QB off the board WITHOUT completely mortgaging their future OR even destroying their 2018 draft class. Think about it. We could trade away #22 and a 2nd Round pick to move up, and still have a 2nd and two 3rds this year (with nothing gone from next year's draft). Not to mention, in the last 12 months the Bills have basically shed three of their biggest contracts (Dareus, Taylor, Glenn). So we could be sitting on $100 million in cap space.

Moving to #12 cannot be the goal. It would make no sense. It's clear the Bills are targeting a Quarterback first and foremost. They have met with, or are planning to meet with, every decent QB prospect in the draft. They already traded their starting QB and have shown only marginal interest in the Free Agent options available. They have been stockpiling extra picks for the last 12 months. In Carolina, Brandon Beane was also part of the process that took a very raw QB prospect #1 overall (Cam Newton), rather than numerous "elite" prospects at other positions like Von Miller, Marcel Dareus, AJ Green and Patrick Peterson. Sitting at #12 still puts us behind Cleveland (twice), Denver and the New York Jets, who are definitely in the QB market. It puts us behind the New York Giants and Miami, who are possibly in the QB market. It puts us in serious danger that Arizona can trade ahead of us. No way that we made all of these moves, then sit on our hands and watch 3-5 QBs come off the board before we pick. My guess is that we will own a Top 3 draft selection well before March is over.

The odds have probably increased of Kirk Cousins heading to Minnesota. It always seemed like the Vikings had their pick of the litter. Now that it's 100% clear they aren't bringing Case Keenum back, one has to assume they are close to locking up a deal with Cousins. I don't think Keenum necessarily stops Denver from targeting a Quarterback in the draft. But it may be a signal they are concerned about the QB they want falling to #5. They know that Buffalo (at least) is trading ahead of them and the Jets before this whole thing is over with. Cleveland is definitely taking one. It would be funny if the Jets somehow get screwed in this whole situation.

Looking at the draft order, I don't think getting to #12 is our ultimate goal. In terms of "QB-needy" teams, that only gets us ahead of Arizona. Even if the Bills like 4-5 guys, I don't think they can be confident that Cleveland, New York, Denver, New York and Miami are going to pass on someone. Not to mention someone else trading up. I also don't think Beane makes this trade without a plan already in place to go higher. Imagine moving up 9 spots, only to have other teams jump ahead and take the guy(s) you were after. Or getting up this far, then not having a willing trade partner to swap. That would be a major blunder from our front office. My guess is that we have already discussed this with other teams, and have a pending trade in place with Cleveland, New York Giants or Indianapolis. Don't be surprised if something else pops in the next week or so.

Anybody think the Bills aren't targeting a QB?

Hope we got something good in return. Not just another salary cap dump (Marcel Dareus).

If we are going back to a "Power Blocking" scheme, isn't anyone else concerned about Dion Dawkins having a sophomore slump?

Not saying this guy has any sources... And I do fully expect Drew Brees to re-sign with New Orleans... But doesn't anyone find it the slightest bit strange that a contract has no been agreed upon yet? The Free Agency negotiating period starts today. Free Agency officially starts Wednesday. Wouldn't it be in the Saints best interest to get him signed and sealed well before that date, so they know what the cap situation will look like? It only makes sense that something is holding up the deal. Either Brees is unhappy with what the Saints are currently offering him, or he wants to test the market.

This is exactly my point though. Most NFL coaches will not adapt their offense to a player's strengths. Maybe we get crazy lucky and Brian Daboll is the rare exception. He manages to build an entire offense around the strengths of his quarterback, and has success doing it. Then guess what? There is a good chance he gets promoted somewhere else. Then what are the chances we get another coordinator willing to do the same thing? This is my primary reason against drafting Lamar Jackson as well. He probably needs a creative coaching staff to make it work. And too many coaches in this league are stuck on doing the same old thing. Let's just draft the prototypical pocket passer that 95% of the coaches in the NFL are comfortable working with, and call it a day.

If the Bills are seriously considering trading a high draft pick for Nick Foles, I am hoping they are asking themselves a few simple questions: 1. What happened to Foles and his play during the 2014-2016 seasons? 2. Why was nobody in our organization interested in Foles when he was available during Free Agency exactly one year ago? 3. How much did their opinion of Foles change between January 20, 2018 and February 4, 2018? The cold hard facts. Most of the media saw Foles as a backup-level QB, and felt the Eagles were going to get easily knocked out by the Vikings in the Divisional Playoffs. Three weeks and two games later, he was suddenly a tremendous asset and best reserve in the league.

I'm not going to account for age, because a handful of these guys are way past their prime. Green, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Manning, Winston, Smith, Brees The only time I picked the receiver was with Cincinnati. In this case, you have an elite receiver with a very average quarterback. I almost considered Tampa Bay, but only because I'm not very impressed with Winston. Right now, he's below average. But he still has time to turn it around.

NFL Scouts love size and arm strength in Quarterbacks. They always have and always will. Cam Newton was a read-option QB in college, with horrible mechanics and accuracy issues. Yet he went #1 in one of the most stacked drafts in NFL history. When teams see Josh Allen, they see his physical size and one of the strongest arms in 10 years. Lamar Jackson is 2 inches shorter, 30 pounds lighter and an above-average arm.

Ugh. Another video pushing the racism angle. The word "project" quarterback is used for 95% of the guys out there. Pretty much anyone that isn't playing in an under center Pro-Style offense, who doesn't go to a big school or who doesn't have excellent throwing mechanics is considered a project. I've seen the same term thrown around for Josh Allen and Sam Darnold plenty over the last few weeks. People see Lamar Jackson as another QB who used his legs a lot in college to achieve success. His accuracy is questionable. He's just barely at the height threshold, but has a small frame. It's not about his skin color. People said the same thing (and were right) about Tim Tebow, Johnny Manziel, Matt Jones and countless others.

The playoff drought was a dark cloud hanging over the entire franchise. Every new GM, coach and player immediately had the tremendous pressure of trying to break that streak. And now it's over. Based on the estimates being thrown around, a trade-up (into the Top 5) will ultimately cost us about 3-4 early picks. So the difference between already being in the Top 5 and needing to trade up is approximately 3 potential starters at other positions. In the end, you are sacrificing one season of rebuilding for the joy of making the playoffs this year. Instead of becoming a legitimate contender in 2019, you are probably looking at 2020. To me, that extra year is worth it.