mjt328

My thoughts exactly. In the long run, simpler schemes and players with limited talent will probably be much easier for defenses to scheme against. Nick Foles has played very well in the postseason over the last two seasons. But I think his success has been AMPLIFIED because of the stage. The media tends to overly hype a player who WON in a playoff game or a Super Bowl. Even though it's really a team accomplishment. But I have my doubts that Foles can carry a franchise year-in, year-out for the next decade plus. Carson Wentz is clearly the superior player, both from a talent perspective and from a statistical evaluation. He's also younger and still has room to grow. Not to mention, he's going to be cheaper on the salary cap for the next two seasons.

The worst NFL team would destroy the best NCAA team by 30-40 points easily. And that's if they decided to lay-off at halftime. It's a joke that anyone would even think otherwise. Here are the facts: The most players one school has EVER had picked in a single draft is Ohio State in 2004, when they had 14 players selected. (Here is a link to the list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Ohio_State_Buckeyes_in_the_NFL_Draft) Sounds like a lot. But in 2003, Ohio State only had 5 players drafted and in 2005 they only had 3 players drafted. This works out to an average of 7 players per draft, which is pretty standard for the top schools. In fact, over the last decade, the top colleges (Alabama, Clemson, LSU and USC) are only averaging about 6-7 players drafted per year. (http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/23316209/college-programs-most-nfl-draft-picks-last-10-years) Adding those up for three seasons (sophomore, junior, senior), you come to about 18-21 players at the "big schools" who will ultimately get drafted. So that means if you took their best 53 players against an NFL team's best 53 players, a school like Alabama would be fielding at least 30 guys who aren't even good enough to be drafted onto a professional roster. These are guys who are going to be working other jobs after college. Not playing football at all. Then consider how many draft picks are ultimately successful. Sure, guys picked in the 1st-2nd Rounds are usually pretty good bets. But by the time you get to Day 3 picks, those guys are a long-shot to even make a roster. Go back and look at the 2004 Ohio State team I mentioned. How many of those guys were actually long-term starters in the NFL? Maybe 3 or 4 guys (Will Smith, Chris Gamble..). How many were impact players? I don't see any. Players like Reggie Ragland, A'Shawn Robinson and Marlon Humphrey may be studs in college, but then turn into backups when they hit the pros - if they don't flame-out completely. That still doesn't factor into the learning and physical curves even the best NFL rookies experience during their first 1-2 seasons. We are talking about veteran professionals against 18-20 year olds who haven't even undergone an NFL training camp yet. In the NFL, even crappy linemen are bigger and stronger. Even slow players are faster. Even dumb players are more experienced. How many rookies can you honestly say walk into the NFL and totally dominate from Week 1? Since we are talking Alabama, look at Calvin Ridley. He had a pretty good rookie season, and has a very promising future. But right now, he is still the 3rd receiver on the Falcons and finished the season with just over 60 catches and 800 yards. Finally, you must consider that NFL teams are a combination of talents from across hundreds of schools. Alabama may have a reputation for putting out great NFL players overall. But when was the last time they actually fielded a top NFL quarterback? The best QB they have offered the NFL in decades is AJ McCarron. The NFL has the benefit of selecting the best bits and pieces from everywhere.

At this point, both guys are below average (I would personally rank them in the Top 20-25, but not any higher). Both have been in the NFL for four years with very little improvement from their rookie seasons. That's longer than lots of QBs get to prove themselves. So time is running out. If I am Tampa Bay and Tennessee, I give them until mid-season next year. If they don't look like franchise material, then I would be pretty confident it's not going to happen. Bench them for a younger/developmental guy and tank for the 2020 draft.

Guess it was a poor choice of words to say "everyone." It would be more accurate to say that moves made by the Bills franchise were (and still are) looked at by MOST critics with pessimism and negativity. Especially during Ralph Wilson's final years running the team. When some teams hire an inexperienced GM or coach, they are looked at as forward-thinking and bold. Wilson was considered an out-of-touch and senile old fool, who couldn't persuade anyone with a decent resume to come to Buffalo and was reluctant to give anyone else significant power in the organization. Go back and look at the things people in the media (both national and local) said - and still say about the Levy hire. They say he wanted a weak GM hire after being betrayed by Donahoe. They say he was still stuck in the 90s and had no idea what other front office candidates were available.

By the time players reach the NFL and are in their early/mid 20s, I think most players have already developed a level of focus and discipline. Some work hard. Some are lazy and coast off talent. Some control themselves in heated situations. Some lose their cool. Maybe it improves as they mature, but I honestly don't think what a coach tells them will make a big difference. I believe that technique is very important, but it still comes down to how good a player is (talent) and how he responds to that teaching. Every O-Line coach is going to teach what constitutes a holding penalty, and how to avoid them. But most of the time, holding happens because a blocker gets beat by the defensive opponent. Not because he was never taught the proper way to do things. Sometimes penalties are just a side-result of players being naturally aggressive. You will notice the NFL's best pass rushers are usually the ones who get the most offside calls. The best cornerbacks are also the ones who often get the most PI calls. Ask any Jets fan. They will tell you that Rex was exactly the same in New York. He always had a reputation for being a "players coach" and very undisciplined with players. The main reason his defense in Buffalo failed was because the talent mismatched scheme.

Can't blame the Pegulas. Everyone is always looking for a reason to call the Buffalo Bills a front office clown-show. And we were only a few years past the days of former Hall of Fame coach (Marv Levy) acting as the General Manager - which was a total catastrophe. To many on the outside, Levy's hiring was a PR stunt and pathetic attempt to recall the glory years, as opposed to looking forward as a franchise. Since we had no QB at the time (don't forget Ryan was the one who pushed for signing Tyrod Taylor), Frank Reich would have failed here miserably. And when word got out that the Pegulas only hired Reich because of a recommendation from Bruce Smith and Will Wolford, it would have made us a laughingstock.

I'm curious how penalties are a reflection of good/bad coaching. Pretty sure every line coach in the NFL teaches their OL and DL players not to jump before the snap. Pretty sure every coach teaches proper blocking techniques, and how to not get called for holding. Pretty sure every DBs coach wants his corners to be aggressive in coverage without committing pass interference. Pretty sure every player is taught to be smart and not commit stupid personal fouls or unsportsmanlike conduct penalties. I recall when Rex Ryan was here, the fans BLASTED him because of the high number of penalties. They said his relaxed and undisciplined culture was being reflected on the field -- even though Ryan's prior NY Jets teams were historically very low in penalties. So now we hire a very disciplined methodical coach in Sean McDermott, and the problem of high penalties has continued. Despite (at least) half of the players being different than during Ryan's tenure, the problem of high penalties has continued. My opinion is that penalties aren't a coaching thing. They aren't even a team culture thing. It's a player-by-player thing, and some guys are just sloppy, unfocused, undisciplined, overly aggressive, have poor technique, etc.

I like wide receivers who can catch. I'm sure that sounds obvious and silly. But honestly, I'm tired of watching balls bounce of the hands and shoulders of our wide-open receivers. Meanwhile, guys on the other teams make incredible leaping finger-tip grabs and drag their toes in bounds, while draped in coverage. Their method for getting open - speed, size, route running - doesn't really matter to me. Just make the catch when it comes your way. If I had to pattern my receiving corps after another team, it would be Seattle. They aren't "big names" by any means. But those guys are always making amazing catches.

It's just another copycat/trend. Doubt it will last. A couple offensive coaches (who just happened to have young talented up-and-coming QBs) found some immediate success. So of course, it's because they are "genius" play-callers. And not because the offensive talent around them came together and took off. Earlier this season, Bills fans were calling for Brian Daboll's head. Now watch. The front office is going to add some talent in the draft and free agency. Josh Allen takes a step in his development. Suddenly the Bills offense improves. If this happens, Daboll will most certainly be in the discussion for a HC job next year.

Very well put. However (just like with Josh Allen), you need to give the guy time to develop his passing skills. He's still a rookie. Being an athletic/mobile QB does not mean a guy should be completely written off. Fran Tarkenton and Steve Young were some of the best running QBs ever, and both are in the Hall of Fame. Randall Cunningham and Michael Vick made really strong NFL careers with heavy reliance on their legs. Currently you have guys like Cam Newton and Russell Wilson succeeding as dual threats. Bottom line, running needs to be a complementary tool for a QB. Not his primary method of attack. I will say that (so far), Lamar Jackson is definitely relying on his running first and his passing second. Allen is trying to be a QB first, and the rushing yards are coming on scrambles where he can't find anyone open. If this trend continues, Allen will ultimately be the better QB.

It's a combination of the two. Anytime a top QB is willing to take a pay cut, it gives flexibility to the front office with the salary cap. But regardless of how much money you have - a team will not have long-term success without smart decisions and good drafting.

Drew Brees is arguably the most accurate QB in NFL history. He has broken (his own) record for highest completion percentage twice in a row, with 72 percent and then 74.4 percent. His career completion percentage after three seasons in the NFL? 59.4 percent. Josh Allen was exactly 23 completed passes from reaching 60 percent. That's it. Over his 12 games played, we are talking about less than 2 passes per game. Get an O-Line that can block, some WRs that can get open and actually catch the ball, a running game that can keep him out of 3rd-Long all the time, and get Daboll to sprinkle in some easier check-down passes. Allen can improve by 2 passes... before even considering the work he can do on his mechanics.

No thanks. Antonio Brown is part of one of the NFL's most successful franchises, and plays with a future Hall of Fame quarterback. He's also a 30-year-old veteran, who should be able to control himself. Yet for some reason, he decided to skip out on his teammates during a week they were fighting for the playoffs. Now he can't get along with his QB and is requesting a trade. If Brown can't work on the Pittsburgh Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger... then how do you think he will behave on the Buffalo Bills with a young/growing Josh Allen? He's a locker room cancer, and will pout unless we make a point not to force-feed him the ball. That's not how you build a team, and that's not how you develop a QB. We don't need that kind of nonsense. We don't need that kind of distraction. Not to mention, this would require (according to the OP) trading away TWO valuable young players, and taking on a $17 million per year contract.

The Bills (as a team, not just defense) went through LOTS of personnel changes during the season. They also had rookies/undrafted free agents starting and playing important snaps in many positions. I think this resulted in a lot of inconsistency. Early in the season, the offense was historically bad. Special Teams was ridiculously poor all year long. Consider how many points were given up just because of offensive turnovers and short field position. Sure, every team has these factored in. But it seemed that each week, the other units were responsible for allowing double-digits of points on the board. Sean McDermott's defense is built around his linebackers. So considering he was starting a very raw rookie (Tremaine Edmunds) in the most important spot of his scheme, there were obviously going to be some struggles. In the first month, veteran QBs were picking on Edmunds in coverage. After Matt Milano went down, he was frequently a liability in the run game. Also, think about how many bad Cornerbacks we went through (Vontae Davis, Phillips Gaines, Ryan Lewis) during the first half of the season. It was a revolving door, and teams were eager to aggressively attack whoever was opposite Tre White. Then suddenly undrafted Levi Wallace gets a shot, and by the season was playing absolute lock-down.

Uh, yeah. No. The average fan might be OK picking from among the top 25-30 prospects... but only after pouring over tons of scouting reports and mock drafts compiled by OTHER sources with actual expertise. Tell the average guy to start from scratch, then put together a big-board of 300-400 college prospects. It would be embarrassing to say the least.

Zay Jones still has some potential. Isaiah McKenzie is a decent gadget player. Maybe Wyatt Teller has a chance after another offseason of conditioning and working with coaches. Other than that, we are probably looking at an overhaul of 7-8 offensive positions. The good news is, we don't need much help (if any) on the defensive side.

If we (as human beings) truly want racism to end, we need to stop looking at others - whether positively OR negatively - as nothing more than a skin color. Is that all Steve Wilks and Vance Joseph are to the general public? African Americans? Minorities? Diversity? Political Correctness? These guys worked for years to EARN their way into a head coaching position, by being good at their jobs as coordinators and assistants. Keeping that job should mean they are doing a good job at the head coaching level. By suggesting they were prematurely fired because of their race, belittles everything they have accomplished in the NFL.

Haven't gotten a chance to really dive into either player yet, and much may depend on what we do in Free Agency. There are many rumblings that Ed Oliver may slip in the draft. Not sure he's going to be considered a "generational prospect" by March/April. He's certainly been a monster in college, but NFL scouts are apparently very concerned about his size, frame and strength at the next level. With that said, Kyle Williams was also considered undersized coming out of LSU... Don't know much about Jonah Williams, but I have seen him consistently among the top O-Line prospects. And I would definitely consider OL our biggest need going into the draft.

First of all, highest paid does not equal greatness. Having a franchise QB is just the starting point, and easily the most important piece on an NFL team. Of course the other positions matter. But if you don't have a good QB (as displayed by our franchise over the last 2 decades), then you are starting so far behind that you almost need to have everything fall perfect to even have a chance at competing for a championship.

As long as they re-sign Jordan Phillips, the Bills still have a pretty good rotation on the D-Line. DT - Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, Jordan Phillips DE - Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Trent Murphy Getting Lorenzo Alexander back for another season would also help, since he can slide into the rotation as an outside pass rusher. So if the Bills don't add another DT to replace Kyle Williams, it won't be the end of the world. However it does give them some justification (at least in the eyes of many fans who are dead-set on offense), if they decide to go that route in Round 1 instead. In the draft, it's always best to go with BPA regardless of position. You can't build a team with just "the next year" in mind. Like I've said before... This is the crucial year for Beane/McDermott's rebuilding plan. They have some strong cornerstones to build around. They have the resources available. Now it's about making the right decisions and obtaining the right players.

Look through the top teams in the NFL. Saints, Rams, Chiefs, Patriots, etc. None of those teams are without flaws. All have weak positions that need to be upgraded. Bottom line, the Bills don't need to have 22 top starters and 31 top backups in order to join these franchises. Now looking through your list... You really believe we need THREE new wide receivers and TWO new running backs just to be "competitive"? You really think our current defense (ranked #2) cannot compete without upgrades at linebacker, cornerback and defensive line? Maybe I don't understand your definition of the word competitive. Everyone needs to overpay for the quality, top-tier free agents. That's just the way free agency works. At least we have the dollars to invest this year. We've gotten some valuable contributions from free agents like Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer in recent years (even without being overly aggressive), so why is it totally unbelievable to think we can get some help this year? The Bills are going to win 5-6 games, in a season where Nathan Peterman (possibly the worst QB ever to step on an NFL field) started twice and Derek Anderson (only signed to hold a clipboard) started twice. We were also a finger-tip catch away from another victory in Miami. We basically punted away a quarter of our games, then spent the rest of our season developing a rookie QB. Now let's say we get the post-bye Josh Allen for a full 16 games next year, instead of the quarterback mess we experienced in 2018. And let's say we are successful in upgrading just a couple positions along the O-Line with solid veterans, so we are just "average" instead of "terrible." And let's say we add maybe 1-2 more decent receiving weapons, and draft a younger running back to replace Shady. Is it really totally UNREALISTIC to think the Bills could win 10-11 games in 2019 (which could win them the AFC East), with just a handful of upgrades on the offensive side of the ball? I don't think so.

I'm sure that Beane will explore trade options, but I don't see us moving too many picks. He knows the importance of building a roster through the draft, and we only have so many selections. This regime has done a pretty good job of drafting so far, and their biggest mistake (Kelvin Benjamin) was trading a pick for a veteran player. I don't know why Bills fans get so self-conscious when it comes to Free Agency. They always whine that "nobody wants to play in Buffalo" when history shows that big-name free agents have always been willing to sign here, when we had the money to offer. And when it comes to the top Day 1 free agents, there is always a bidding war to overpay for their services.

So your theory is: Josh Allen knows he doesn't have the accuracy to hit a 5 yard pass, so he always goes for the 20 yard pass instead? Now it's certainly possible that he's often going for the "big play" instead of the "correct play" - and it will be important for his development to get better at these decisions. However, it will be a lot easier to get an overly aggressive QB to make some check-downs sometimes, than getting a timid/tentative QB to start pushing the ball downfield.

How many people are going to respond without actually clicking on the link... It's always important to consider how players/positions are supposed to be used in a defensive scheme. In Sean McDermott's system, it's vitally important to have playmaking linebackers who can read plays quickly and get to the right gap. Star is basically a space-eater, who commands double-teams and allows those linebackers room to make plays. Matt Milano is already becoming a star in this scheme. His loss (along with Tremaine Edmunds having his rookie struggles) was the main reason for our run defense falling apart on Sunday.

This is a great point. There are many different levels of accuracy in the NFL. It's not just "accurate" or "inaccurate." I think Josh Allen's game is most comparable to Ben Roethlisberger/Cam Newton. And like you said, both are guys who have had good to great NFL success without the benefit of fantastic passing accuracy. Notice that Roethlisberger has always been surrounded by incredible WRs, strong running games and a solid offensive line. Newton has had good running backs, but some pretty average/below average receivers and questionable blocking help. Let's hope that our Carolina-based front office builds an offense closer to the Steelers than the Panthers. Agreed. Sam Darnold was my favorite QB of the draft, and I was upset to see the Jets land him. Based on what we've seen this year, the future of the AFC East just may be the Jets/Bills.