OldTimer1960

Who were these “terrible” defensive draft picks? I think he has done pretty well there - for sure not terrible.

I think that might be the assumption, but we don't know if the luster would have come off of Tryon if he had played last year. I suspect that Jayson Oweh would be taken a little higher than he will be had he not played last year and generated 0 sacks.

This is a great post. "Big Nickel" carries some magical connotation, but the idea is a bigger extra DB who can cover and play the run well is better than a smaller smaller extra DB. Having someone who can do both makes the defense a little less vulnerable against the run when in nickel. The "Big Nickel" is only special if you have a special player to play it - like pretty much every position.

Why Nasirildeen? Not really a safety, not really a LB and not a CB. This idea of “the big nickel” seems way overblown to me. Sure, if you can find a guy like Isaiah Simmons who is big AND has coverage skills it would be nice. However, searching for an oversized college safety and imparting special skills on him - because you want to see them - is a risky proposition, IMHO.

Completely agree, both Oliver and Edmunds are young and talented. Also agree that history shows that there are difference makers drafted after the first round - challenge is, which guys this year will be drafted after 30 that will be very good players? I think that to find a really good player at 30 at a “premium” position will require gambling an a guy who has great athleticism, but not a lot of production or limited experience. Guys like Jayson Oweh with crazy tools, but embarrassing production or guys who flashed in 2019, but didn’t play in ‘20 are in that camp. Also, in that group could be high production and tools guys at positions that are considered “less important”. I really respect your opinions, can you name a few players who you think might become difference makers that could be available around picks 30 and 61?

Do you see any potential difference makers who might be available at 30? I can imagine some with the upside to possibly become difference makers, but not many that I think would likely be out of the gate stars, though I would love to hear different opinions.

I think your premise that adding Etienne would increase scoring by a TD per game is questionable. Did KC’s scoring increase by that much when they added Clyde Edwards-Helaire?

Toney is like a lot of players in this draft with only 1 year of significant production in college. His significant year was at least last season, some others you have to go back to 2019 due to opt outs or shortened seasons. Not advocating to draft Toney, just highlighting that many players in this draft are in same boat.

I would love to believe that there is a viable future good starting DE available at 30. If Ojulari can play there, rush the passer and not be an easy target in the run game it would be nice. Likewise, if there is maybe another DE available around 30 that could fill that bill, great. This year, more so than any year that I can remember over 35 years of really following the draft, there are widely varying opinions on many players. I do think a very good RT or interior OL prospect will be available at 30. Do they pull the trigger in spite of re-signing Williams and Feliciano? Allen IS their most important asset... I do think that a very good WR prospect will be there as well - Toney? Marshall? I am not as sold on the RBs... Could be a good CB prospect there. Prospects being equal, DE for me, but I don’t think the prospects will be equal...

The program in particular.

Can he hold up there? I understand that it is rare to find Reggie White types who are great pass rushers and great run stoppers, but I would worry that Ojulari will be destroyed in the run game or, if he bulks up will he lose his speed and rush effectiveness? I am not saying that I would be disappointed if they took Ojulari, only that he doesn't seem to fit the Bills' defense that well - at least at present. If he can put on 10 pounds of muscle without losing speed/quickness - well, he would still be quite small for a 4-3 DE.

I think it is stretching things quite a bit to say that McKenzie is starting caliber. I *hope* that Hodgkins can be a contributor, but he was a late pick for a reason. His redshirt year last year didn't make him faster or more sudden (the reasons he was drafted late). Other two listed are camp bodies with possibility to make the team, but not guys who should deter a team from drafting a WR. Where would Ojulari play? I like that he can rush the passer, but are you going to play him at LB in the Bills' D or can he hold up at DE being 240lbs?

Interested in what you like/don’t like about Jones. You seem to like him quite a bit more than most draft analysts. I know that you watch lots of video on these guys.

Is Patrick Jones worth a pick before round 4?

Welker was also undrafted and Edelman was a 7th rounder. I was making the argument that slot receivers aren’t generally drafted high. Not to say that there aren’t exceptions... I can’t think of many examples of pure slot receivers being drafted very high and panning out.

I think Moore will be available at their 2nd pick and may still not be best player available, though would be a candidate. Who are the best pure slot receivers in the league and where were they drafted? I’d say guys like Wes Welker, Julian Edelman, Cole Beasley and a few others are highly valuable, but not highly valued on draft day. I haven’t looked I can up, but all of those listed were late picks, if drafted at all. I would be shy about touching Moore before round 3.

I could imagine a CB taken at 30 challenging for a starting job this year. Same with RB, but I don’t see a TE that is likely any upgrade over Knox- at least not worth th 30th pick. Same story at DE, a good rookie could play a significant role, but who will be available at 30 that is that good? No thank you - his brother was a similar athlete and never panned out. Additionally, Syracuse was a pretty weak D for having draftable players at CB and S - I think those players might be over-hyped.

I don’t agree with the premise that their first round pick must be an immediate starter. I like the long view and if they think a player will be a long-term contributor even if they are a backup this year, it is OK.

If you mean that Owens out-produced his draft position, then I understand.

Aligned, but they aren’t likely to find a very good pass rusher late in the first round of a poor DE class. Now, maybe they can find a good CB prospect there.

How is Terrell Owens a comparison to a small slot receiver?

I disagree with the comparison of Phillips to Myles Garrett and Chase Young. Without the injury concerns, he is probably a top 10 prospect in this draft, but not a prospect like Garrett/Young @ least in my opinion... I think this is a really weak TE draft after Kyle Pitts. I think considering Freiermuth at 30 would be a big reach and he will go before 61 because the class is so bad. If they had a 4th round pick, maybe they could throw it at a TE, but not sure they’d find anyone who is a better prospect than Tommy Sweeney.

Yes he did. He was beaten and battered on a really bad team in an era when QBs were not protected at all, much less like they are today.

I wouldn't say *easily* worth the risk, but certainly tempting if he were available.

I am not advocating for drafting a WR early, however Diggs is the only sure-thing in this group for the future. Davis certainly was promising last year, but that doesn't guarantee that his star will continue to rise. Beasley is getting up in age and played hurt a lot last year - he might not make it to the 2022 season, though I hope he does. Sanders is a very nice vet fill-in for this year, but counting on him for 2022 at age 35 seems a risky plan. McKenzie isn't more than a minor role player and Hodgins has not shown anything one way or the other. If there were a very good WR available at the Bills' pick in the first, second or third, I would think they would be in play. No doubt that DE and CB are more pressing needs, but if the WR options are clearly better than the options at either of those positions, I wouldn't be upset if they nabbed one.