OldTimer1960

In the late 3rd, maybe Long is OK. I think the TE class is really weak and Freiermuth and, especially Long, are being elevated because there are not high-end TE prospects after Pitts. Is Long any better than Tommy Sweeney? If yes, how much better?

Well, yes. Point taken. However Burrow was more athletic and has a better arm than Jones - at least I think that.

Agreed, but the draftniks often pick up "vibes" from the NFL evaluators. I suspect that they picked up on the "we're not sure about Fields" vibe.

Don't forget Art Schichter (sp?). Still, Fields played very well in big games, has a much better arm and is another league athletically compared to Mac Jones. Jones played with 2 slam dunk first round WRs in this draft, 3 OL who will be drafted, 2 of which in the top 2 rounds, and a borderline first/second round RB. Jones had SO much talent around him, how do you even evaluate him? I am pretty sure that any 2nd/3rd string NFL QB and some guys who couldn't make the league would have looked great with that Alabama team. I'm not saying that Mac Jones isn't gooe, but rather how could he look bad on that team?

Now it is understandable why there has been any question about whether he is the 2nd or 3rd ranked QB. I could not understand why anyone would rate Mac Jones ahead of him.

Have to be careful with this logic. If you pick the "best" DT, particularly 1T, early and pass over (potentially much) better players at other positions, you can be left with a DT who isn't good enough to start or maybe even contribute and also have missed out on a potential starter or significant contributor at another position. The Bills do need to improve the DL, including DT. Just because Shelvin is (very) big, does not mean that he will be a game changer for this defense. He is basically a 1 year starter who was held back by weight issues previously. Do you want to gamble that once he gets paid he will stay in shape? Do you want to say that a block eater is worth a late 3rd over potentially better players elsewhere? I am not here to say that I know the answer, just throwing out points to consider.

The TEs available are not very good.

I think the focus (obsession?) with finding a "big nickel" is dangerous to good drafting.

This is true about far more first round picks every year than many of us want to acknowledge. A first round pick, especially late first is no guarantee of even finding a good starter for multiple years - indeed that is a win.

Feliciano was still playing mostly 1-armed. No way that he was 100% or close after tearing his pec. It takes more than 8-12 weeks to have surgery to fix a torn pec and get your strength back. I think that we, as fans, really underestimate how long it takes to get back to even close to 100% from significant injuries.

Why not OL? I think some of the best players on the board at 30 will be OL and maybe WR- DE, CB and DT will appear to be reaches (of course, we don’t know how the Bills have guys graded).

Agreed - if he was the younger version of himself- great, but he isn’t.

30 BPA is unlikely to be DE or CB, maybe S? 30 BPA could be OT, IOL, RB, but only OT is a premium position. With recognition that Bills will have their own grades that may differ considerably from other team’s grades and from what the pundits and we think, the question will be: how far down the board do you go for a player at a premium position vs. a “better” prospect at a less valued position?

I think the Bills consider both tape and athleticism/upside. They took both Allen and Tremaine Edmunds who had great physical tools and upside, but (especially Allen) hadn’t really shown consistent top production on the field. On the flip side, the drafted AJ Epenesa who what’s highly productive in college, but doesn’t have the outstanding quickness and speed that people are looking for in pass rusher. What I do think those 3 have in common is want-to and work ethic to succeed.

OK...

I think finding one future good starter and another good backup would be a win with the class and picking late in each round with no 4th round pick.

Like Daviyon Nixon. I know he isn’t a 2 gap guy or 1T, but do you think he and Oliver cold play at the same time? That would be much more quickness and penetration than Star provides.

I don’t think they would get and extra 2nd in return for moving down 10 spots.

Agreed, but those picks don’t have much trade value.

Problem is move up with what? Value of the Bills’ picks is pretty low 1st and 2nd might get you to pick 19 if you can find a willing partner.

More than wishful...

My guess is that interior OL, WR and RB will represent the best and safest players available at 30. Of corse, I would love to get a pass rusher, but all of the likely available players there will be risky - think Carlos Basham highest floor there. I think Therace Marshall, Landon Dickerson, maybe Vera-Tucker will be best available, but not at need positions or premium positions

Even Ojulari is a risky pick. He is under-sized for 4-3 DE, but at least produced in the SEC.

I think those are nice aspirational goals, but I think overly ambitious in this class. 1T, in particular, looks bleak. CB has a number of players with upside and question marks. WR at 30 like Terrace Marshall may be best bet for a “safe” player.

I especially agree with this. in a strong draft class, opt-outs would be down-graded some for uncertainty. In this class it seems not only are they not down-graded, but they seem to be elevated because those that played this year were quite uninspiring. Now, some of those opt-outs will be studs and some of hose opt-outs will be over-drafted duds. My inclination is to go with whomever they think are High-floor guys to hopefully at least find some contributors. Many players in this draft have only one year of production and/or tape to go off of. I could understand swinging for the fences on athletic traits this year, but I think I would lean towards those who have shown real production over athletic traits. I think this might be a year to take productive players even if they aren’t at a “premium” position. This is such an odd year, that (I think) it would be wise to lean into positions where players are lesser valued like interior OL and RB. I know the arguments against that, but what premium position players do you really like at 30 and 61? Bills have really very little draft ammo, but it might be wise to try to move up in round 1 or particularly 2. At the end of round 2 in this draft, you will have to be sharp to even find good backups who might eventually start.