OldTimer1960

But no such player exists in this draft after Pitts who will be gone very early.

Respectfully disagree. Etienne is fast, maybe not AS fast as advertised, but I think his receiving skills are a tad overblown and I don’t think he has special power or elusiveness. I don’t hate him as a prospect, but he is half used up (imho) and good not great. If the argument is that he is a dynamic receiver, then I prefer Elijah Moore who is at least as fast, has better hands and route running and will play in the league longer. Don’t get me wrong, I am not sold on Moore, either. Likely slot receiver only and undersized, but still more of an immediate upgrade and long-term contributor in my view. Both of these heavily used RBs will be declining by year 4, so 5th year is not very helpful.

Spot on... Disagree. I think explosive RB loses 1/2 yard less when met in backfield as Moss and Singletary were. Speed at RB is overrated, in my opinion. Yes, occasionally a fast guy can break a big run where a slower guy makes only a good gain. Still, most runs require good blocking, RB vision and make-you-miss ability- not necessarily raw speed.

I think Turner could be in the mix for Bills at 30 or with small trade down. I’m not a fan of Etienne or Harris in the first, though I do think both are good, but short-term prospects. I would prefer DE or CB or OL at 30, but am warming to a WR. Prefer WR over RB as a “weapon”. Marshall would be interesting and I would prefer Elijah Moore, though likely slot only, over any RB. I just think RBs are at best 4 year players at a high level and Etienne and Harris likely less due to college wear and tear.

Maybe even before 50. He is huge and can move. Teams will be tempted and after Paye, all the DEs have have holes - opt outs, 1 year producers, injuries...

Heck, I would be willing for the Bills to red-shirt Farley, but only if they are VERY confident that he will fully recover. Back injuries are really trouble - Terrell Troup never recovered. Without the ability for a team Doctor to examine him, I would have to pass in round 1 and maybe even round 2. Unless he got an “all clear” from the NFL doctor at Indy, I think he will fall out of the first.

Yes, I think they are all “home field” times - not just Etiennes. Indy has a reportedly “slower” surface, but at least same surface for everyone so comparisons are possible. Likewise, Indy is set up with electronic timing so that everyone is getting same treatment. I believe that these pro days are mostly hand timed which certainly introduces variability into the timings.

You’re right, I had forgotten that. My bad. Still, team doctors had the ability to examine Metcalf and they can’t do that with Farley.

Many on that list slowed down not too far into their NFL career - do you disagree?

I don’t see the comparison at all. DK Metcalf had people questioning if he was too big to move laterally while he was clearly fast and also they questioned his route running. Farley has had 2 back procedures and may be looking at a 3rd and he is only in his early 20s. Add to it that team Docs can’t even examine him for themselves and picking him would be a major risk.

My main worry is that he is likely only a short-term producer before he breaks down and I would hope to find someone at a more important position who can be here for longer than that.

Is Etienne really that big a receiving threat or did he take advantage of spread out defenses trying to handle all of Clemson’s talent and benefit from a a very good OL. Behind last year’s Bills’ OL he gets met in the backfield frequently just like Singletary and Moss did - his speed won’t help there. In addition, his 4.4 speed from his pro day is likely equivalent to 4.5 at Indy combine in a normal year.

I just don’t really think that Harris or Etienne are that “huge scare the defense” guy. And I think both are half used up from college. RBs take a real beating.

This is the right perspective picking late in each round. You can take “safe” prospects, many will have limited upside or take high upside guys wh are risks to never reach their potential. There are, of course, guys in the middle between those poles. I prefer some level of “safeness” that early picks will find some role to contribute in - not necessarily this year.

I think many could fit that description. Several of the DEs like Oweh and Tryon are in that category. Most of the CBs after Surtain, Newsome and Horn also fit. Really, any high upside guy who might need a year to blossom -or- a nearly finished product who might have to sit behind a vet this year. Guys with tons of wear and tear at RB like Etienne and Harris don’t fit that description as they may contribute early, they likely fade/breakdown in 3-4 years at the latest. Just my view, but I would prefer long-term thinking.

I just don’t think that Etienne is “special”. Good RB prospect with some pass catching skills and has some speed, but is a high-mileage draftee. I think he is fast, but not “extremely fast”. 40 time from these pro days are suspect - hand timed and variable surfaces. I would guess you should add about .1 seconds to all of these reported time to compare with what comes out of the Indy combine each year. If you add .1 to Etienne’s pro day time it is about 4.5. If he ran 4.5 at Indy in a normal year, we are not talking about a top round prospect and that is how I see him.

I think looking at who contributes most immediately is too short-sighted. They are trying to build a sustainable contender here and I am on board with that philosophy. Others may prefer “all-in now” approach, but not me. Too many things, including one key injury can derail that approach. I would be OK with future plays, players who might not be huge contributors in 21, but have a good chance to be big contributors in 22 and beyond.

That isn’t fully true. They knew he would eventually need surgery, they just hoped he could get through his rookie season before he had it in the offseason.

Of course not - I am not omnipotent as you are. What I do know is that Etienne had roughly 2.5x the wear and tear in college as Alvin Kamara did.

Do you want to have to have the ball last to win? A weak D accomplishes that.

What about his workload in college - quite heavy with 650+ carries and 800+ touches. I’d stay away unless you are drafting him for only about 3 years and then will move on.

That is about right and not necessarily bad drafting. Somewhere around <50% of 2nd round picks ever become multi-year starters.

I am not enamored with anyone likely available at 30. I do like DEs Payton Turner, Carlos Basham and Joe Tryon and Greg Rousseau - but not any of them particularly at 30. Likewise, I think they will miss out on the top corners, but who can tell which ones of them will be any good? I watched Tyson Campbell vs Florida and he had tight coverage on Kyle Pitts several times, but gave up 2 TDS to Pitts even with tight coverage. Likewise, he seemed to hold his own against Alabama’s Uber-talented WR tandem, but Waddle torched him(leaving Campbell on the ground) for a long TD. Still, nobody is stopping those guys completely. Shelvin doesn’t strike me as “process” if he isn’t motivated enough to control his weight.

He is a really tough blocker, but at 245ish, he isn’t going to dominate as a blocker in the NFL.

Well, it will be a weak plan, if he does that. Etienne had a HEAVY workload in college and will be lucky not to be worn out by year 4. Beyond that, I think he is a good prospect, but not a “special “ RB.