OldTimer1960

There are maybe 5-7 players that should be considered at #3 based on all the reading that I've done (mostly ProFootballWeekly and GMJr/SportingNews along with NFL Network). My $.02 worth: 1. Marcell Dareus - I think he is a very "safe" pick in that he will almost certainly help the run defense significantly. He can play in both the 3-4 and 4-3 looks and will be valuable. 2. Von Miller - lots of production and athletic ability. I like Miller and think he can really help the pass rush and will be an improvement in run D, too. 3. Patrick Peterson - not sold on him being a top CB and I don't know if he can be an Ed Reed type Safety. He could be a dynamite kick returner, but #3 is too high for a great KR and OK-good CB or Safety. If the Bills pick him, they might have the best set of KR ever with Spiller, Peterson, McKelvin and McGee. Is Peterson another Rod Woodson? I don't know, but I thin 3 is too rich for him. 4. AJ Green - Looks to be a great WR with the work-ethic and talent to excel. The Bills don't have a glaring need at WR and w/o a QB and OL upgrade could Green fulfill his potential? 5. Cam Newton - I hate most everything I've read about him. I don't care how great an athlete he is or how strong his arm is. Too much off-field stuff and zero experience calling plays and passing in a pro-style offense. Can he do it? Who knows? But #3 is too high to gamble on a guy like this. 6. Blaine Gabbert - I like his athletic ability and reported intelligence and work-ethic, but his production (admittedly with a weak supporting cast) leaves a lot to be desired this high in the draft. 7. Nick Fairley - great athlete, bad body for this high of a pick. Does he play hard and train hard enough to be great? I don't think so. Just my opinion, but I'd rate these guys as: 1. Dareus and Miller (tie) 2. AJ Green in spite of much bigger needs 3. Patrick Peterson 4. Blaine Gabbert - at least he reportedly has the work-ethic and intelligence to maybe grow into a good starter. 5. Nick Fairley - top athlete, if they can light a fire he might be great. 6. Cam Newton - huge gamble on 1 year of production in a non-pro-style offense with off-field concerns to boot. Comments welcome!

I don't disagree that you can get an outstanding player at #3. All that I am saying is to adjust expectations for the 3rd overall pick. It is maybe a 60-70% success rate rather than a slam-dunk based on the last 10 years.

Thanks for the information NeverGiveUp. However, if the Bills blow the 3rd overall pick on Newton, I will indeed give up.

Below are the last several #3 overall picks. Looking at the list, I still strongly believe that the Bills' best strategy is to find a "safe" player with a "high floor". Of the last 10 3rd overall picks: 4 (40%) are flat busts/major disappointments: Tyson Jackson, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Gerard Warren. I'd also add Braylon Edwards as a mild to moderate disappointment and the jury is out on Gerald McCoy. From ProFootballWeekly.com: Overview: The past decade has been good to players taken with the third pick in the draft. A couple of the league's top wideouts have been selected with the pick, and the Falcons got a pretty good quarterback in Matt Ryan. PFW found that the No. 3 pick, which is held by the Bills this year, has welcomed some top players into the league in the past 10 years. 2010: Buccaneers select Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy It took McCoy a while to start playing a high level, but it finally looked like he was putting it all together before a torn left biceps ended his season after 13 games. McCoy has a ton of potential and is expected to be a building block in Tampa Bay. 2009: Chiefs select LSU DE Tyson Jackson Jackson wasn't very impressive in his 14 starts for the Chiefs as a rookie and was unable to take a step forward in 2010. He started just three games last season, tallying 31 tackles and only one sack. 2008: Falcons select Boston College QB Matt Ryan Ryan has become everything an NFL team looks for in a franchise quarterback. He is constantly improving and is coming off the best season of his career in '10, in which he threw for 3,705 yards and 28 touchdowns. 2007: Browns select Wisconsin OT Joe Thomas Thomas has made the Pro Bowl each year he has been in the league and has never missed a start. At 6-6, 312 pounds, the strong, athletic tackle is extremely effective in pass support and can run-block just as well. 2006: Titans select Texas QB Vince Young A winning record as a starting quarterback (30-17) in the NFL is all Young has going for him. He clashed with former Titans head coach Jeff Fisher throughout his career and, even though Fisher is gone, he was told by the team that it was moving on without him. He has thrown as many touchdown passes as interceptions (42). 2005: Browns select Michigan WR Braylon Edwards Edwards had 80 catches for 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns with the Browns in 2007, the lone season that he appeared to be a true No. 1 receiver. Struggles at the quarterback position didn't help his development before he was eventually traded to the Jets in October ’09. 2004: Cardinals select Pittsburgh WR Larry Fitzgerald Fitzgerald has emerged as one of the best wideouts in the game. He is a hard worker with tremendous body control, can catch the ball in traffic and does everything you would expect from a No. 1 receiver. His performance in leading the Cardinals to the Super Bowl in 2008 was historic — 30 catches, 546 yards and seven touchdowns in four games. 2003: Texans select Miami (Fla.) WR Andre Johnson The AFC's best receiver, if not the best wideout in the NFL, Johnson has the potential to be a Hall of Famer. He has produced five seasons of 1,000-plus yards — including three in a row — has 50 career TD receptions and is a five-time Pro Bowler. 2002: Lions select Oregon QB Joey Harrington Harrington had some ability, but his fragile ego got in the way of him becoming a dependable starter. He spent seven seasons in the league, making 76 starts, and threw 79 touchdowns and 85 interceptions. 2001: Browns select Florida DT Gerard Warren Warren, nicknamed "Big Money," was known for his athletic abilities early in his career but was never able to live up to expectations during his four seasons in Cleveland. He was traded to the Broncos for a fourth-round pick in '05 and has played for four teams in his career, including a solid season in New England in ’10.

With as much passing talent as Mallet has, if he isn't picked in round 1, you can bet that many NFL teams think he is a HUGE risk. A QB with his arm talent would be a top-5 pick if teams weren't very wary of his character/off field issues.

I think both of these guys will still go in the 2nd round, 3rd at the latest. Other players who have failed drug tests have still gone relatively high (no pun intended, but I think it's pretty funny!)

I am with you on Newton. I think he is a disaster waiting to happen. Could he be great? Sure, but I think the odds are very much against it. Don't be pulled in by the athletic talent as it won't mean a lot for a NFL QB. I am luke-warm on Gabbert. I like his reported intelligence and work-ethic. I don't like his production, but he didn't play with a strong supporting cast. Quinn is a concern due to the reasons that you mention, though I don't think he'll be a huge bust.

OK, thanks for the help. I get tired of these "Von Miller is Aaron Maybin because they weigh about the same" posts. Miller has a lot bigger body of work than Maybin did, his combine numbers far exceed Maybin's and he is far more athletic and productive. Maybin was a bad pick, but that doesn't mean that all LBs who aren't 6'4" 260 are bad. Comparing Miller to Maybin based on their weight is no more meaningful than comparing Cade McKnown or Matt Leinart to Steve Young because they were all left-handed QBs. BTW, I don't want to come across as all-Miller. I think Dareus would be a great pick, too. I am not a Nick Fairley fan, though.

Huh? Defense is all intertwined. I agree that the run defense is terrible, but don't LBs help play run defense? I know Miller isn't 260lbs, but that does NOT mean that he can't play the run at least reasonably well. In the Senior Bowl, I thought he was very effective against the run using his athleticism to avoid blocks and still make the tackle. There is a reason that many many folks say Miller was the best player at the Senior Bowl.

Could it be that he played with an elbow injury and thus didn't have his normal arm-strength? Or could it be that Florida State isn't as strong as they used to be? Who were his receivers and RBs? I think Fla State plays in a pretty tough conference, too.

Why is Von Miller a "luxury pick"? The Bills have zero starting-caliber OLBs. A pass rushing OLB is the farthest thing from a luxury pick that I can imagine (IMHO).

Just like those concerns were over-hyped with Ryan Leaf and Jeff George and....

I generally agree with picking D, but to play devil's advocate: perhaps the offense not ranking last had to do with them gaining yards because the opposition had the lead and was playing soft/prevent defense much of the last quarter of every game.

I agree that Fitz is not the long-term answer at QB, but that doesn't mean that there is a better QB in this draft. I personally do not want Newton in the first and am luke-warm on Gabbert. I kind of like Ponder and Kaepernick in round 2, but the odds of either panning out are not high. Realistically, if any teams think either is a long-term good starting QB, then they'd be picked in round 1.

I am with you in terms of bolstering the D in this draft. I do have to disagree with the idea that since some view Wilson as the best ILB in the draft, that it means he is one of the best LBs in the draft. Being the best of a very weak ILB class does not mean that Wilson will be a good pro and worth the 34th pick.

I agree that Miller's pass rush ability is a better fit for 3-4, but I respectfully disagree that "he can't stop the run to save his life". In the Senior Bowl he showed that he could use his quickness and agility to play run D. Just because he isn't 260 lbs doesn't mean he can't play run D. James Harrison from Pittsburgh isn't any bigger and he is \ pretty good. I agree that for Miller, power is not his strongest suit, but he is also far from weak.

Yes, that is exactly what I was saying. There are very good players that have a "higher floor" than Newton. Guys like Dareus and Miller come to mind. They have similar talent to Newton (at their respective positions), have a longer track record of success and have far fewer off-field questions than does Newton. Another guy that fits that description is AJ Green.

If true, then I am about to turn in my fan card. Newton, in my opinion, is the most likely to be a bust in this whole class. Forget all the off-field red-flags. Name ONE thing that he did at Auburn that translates to NFL QB success. He was a runner first, didn't make line calls, didn't have to read defenses and threw mainly to receivers who were wide open because defenses needed to sell out to stop Newton's running. I contend that NFL defenses will not have to sell out so much to stop Newton from running. I also think that Newton, who hasn't had to make quick passing decisions in college, would really struggle having to make decisions even quicker than most NFL QBs behind Buffalo's weak OL. I should be clear, though, that my main concerns with Newton also involve the academic fraud (3x) that he had in college. I think that is a big red-flag at a position where work-ethic is paramount. We've heard all the "he has to be the first in the building and last to leave" statements about QBs. I am not very confident that is Newton when he recently had others do his work. Further, the computer theft that most agree he was able to skate away from is a red-flag. He can't help a NFL team if he is suspended or in jail.

I'm pretty sure that Tom Brady's "production where it should have been" at Michigan given that he sat behind Drew Henson an lot of the time. You can't go solely on production or you miss players that played at lesser programs with not a lot of talent around them and/or you over-value production at great programs where a player had all sorts of great talent around them (look at Matt Leinert recently). IMHO, you have to consider the talent around a player and the competition that they played against (along with a plethora of other factors).

I agree completely. The Bills need to find someone with the "highest floor" possible. They can't afford to completely whiff (again) swinging for the fences. A good solid starter with upside is the target, IMHO. I don't want them to "gamble on greatness" with a guy who could just as easily be out of the league in 3 years as be a star. IF they must have a QB that high, I prefer Gabbert based on his reported intelligence and work ethic. Add in that he had to read defenses (at least a bit more than Newton) and I prefer him to Newton. Given my druthers though, I'd take Von Miller or Marcel Dareus ahead of any of these QBs and I don't like any of the othe QBs in round or 3 except Colin Kaepernick. I think Kaepernick has as much chance (or more) to be good as Newton.

I agree. I think that Maybin works hard and tries hard. He just doesn't have the talent that many thought that he did. This is the danger of drafting someone who, for one year, beat good college competition on athletic ability (beware Cam Newton, Nick Fairley). Unfortunately, the Bills ignored a big red flag when Maybin's workouts failed to match what they thought they saw on film. I think the same can easily be said for Fairley this year. My issue with Newton is more that he hasn't shown the necessary passing skills in college (at least in terms of NFL-type passing).

Maybin's weight is not his big problem. He is not agile and quick. He lacks instints. He is much slower than Von Miller. Maybin produced for only 1 year and disappointed at the combine. Miller has been great for the last 2 years (far better production than Maybin) and he was terrific at the combine. I am not saying that it wouldn't be better if Miller were 15 lbs bigger, just that I don't see any basis at all for comparing Miller to Maybin. BIG differences in my opinion. Additionally, I don't see how Newton has the "best reward / risk ratio of anyone in the draft". Yes, his upside might be high, but I haven't seen any evidence that he can read NFL defenses, nor has there been any evidence that he'd put the time in/have the aptitude for learning to do so. His running ability will only go so far in the NFL and I'd rather gamble on someone at QB who has at least demonstrated some NFL-type skills. His athleticism IS amazing, I just don't think that should be weighted that heavily at QB.

You mean like Cam Newton - 3x academic fraud, 1x stolen laptop, 1x initimidating/threatening witness, 0x throwing NFL type passes, 1x excellent college production running the football (best NFL QB running the ball was forgettable Bobby Douglas of the Bills.

I think taking 2 offensive players in the first 2 rounds would yield a more talented, but still flawed, offense that will still never get to be on the field as the opposition runs at will through the Bills' D.

Not everyone is completely sold on Peterson as a CB and the Bills don't need yet another kick returner. Some scouts that I've read think Peterson doesn't cover as well as he is given credit for. Nobody disagrees that he is a tremendous athlete, though.