OldTimer1960

I'm pretty sure that Tom Brady's "production where it should have been" at Michigan given that he sat behind Drew Henson an lot of the time. You can't go solely on production or you miss players that played at lesser programs with not a lot of talent around them and/or you over-value production at great programs where a player had all sorts of great talent around them (look at Matt Leinert recently). IMHO, you have to consider the talent around a player and the competition that they played against (along with a plethora of other factors).

I agree completely. The Bills need to find someone with the "highest floor" possible. They can't afford to completely whiff (again) swinging for the fences. A good solid starter with upside is the target, IMHO. I don't want them to "gamble on greatness" with a guy who could just as easily be out of the league in 3 years as be a star. IF they must have a QB that high, I prefer Gabbert based on his reported intelligence and work ethic. Add in that he had to read defenses (at least a bit more than Newton) and I prefer him to Newton. Given my druthers though, I'd take Von Miller or Marcel Dareus ahead of any of these QBs and I don't like any of the othe QBs in round or 3 except Colin Kaepernick. I think Kaepernick has as much chance (or more) to be good as Newton.

I agree. I think that Maybin works hard and tries hard. He just doesn't have the talent that many thought that he did. This is the danger of drafting someone who, for one year, beat good college competition on athletic ability (beware Cam Newton, Nick Fairley). Unfortunately, the Bills ignored a big red flag when Maybin's workouts failed to match what they thought they saw on film. I think the same can easily be said for Fairley this year. My issue with Newton is more that he hasn't shown the necessary passing skills in college (at least in terms of NFL-type passing).

Maybin's weight is not his big problem. He is not agile and quick. He lacks instints. He is much slower than Von Miller. Maybin produced for only 1 year and disappointed at the combine. Miller has been great for the last 2 years (far better production than Maybin) and he was terrific at the combine. I am not saying that it wouldn't be better if Miller were 15 lbs bigger, just that I don't see any basis at all for comparing Miller to Maybin. BIG differences in my opinion. Additionally, I don't see how Newton has the "best reward / risk ratio of anyone in the draft". Yes, his upside might be high, but I haven't seen any evidence that he can read NFL defenses, nor has there been any evidence that he'd put the time in/have the aptitude for learning to do so. His running ability will only go so far in the NFL and I'd rather gamble on someone at QB who has at least demonstrated some NFL-type skills. His athleticism IS amazing, I just don't think that should be weighted that heavily at QB.

You mean like Cam Newton - 3x academic fraud, 1x stolen laptop, 1x initimidating/threatening witness, 0x throwing NFL type passes, 1x excellent college production running the football (best NFL QB running the ball was forgettable Bobby Douglas of the Bills.

I think taking 2 offensive players in the first 2 rounds would yield a more talented, but still flawed, offense that will still never get to be on the field as the opposition runs at will through the Bills' D.

Not everyone is completely sold on Peterson as a CB and the Bills don't need yet another kick returner. Some scouts that I've read think Peterson doesn't cover as well as he is given credit for. Nobody disagrees that he is a tremendous athlete, though.

I respectfully disagree. I think that Williams is just fine at NT and I have high hopes for Troupe based on his work ethic. He is reportedly up into the 320lb range and that is more than big enough to play NT (now to see if he has the skills). Not every successful 3-4 defense has a 340lb NT.

I suggest that "only" maturity and work ethic are HUGE issues. Was Ray Lewis the most physically dominant LB in the last 10 years of the draft? No, it was his work ethic that made him great. Was Tom Brady a physically gifted QB? No, it is his work ethic that makes him great. I am sure that I could continue to name a number of guys who starred because of their work ethic. It is a shorter list of players who were terrifically talented, but had crappy work ethics and still starred anyway.

I don't think you can go wrong with Von Miller, either. 27 sacks in the last 2 years against top competition in a run-oriented conference? How do you beat that?

Ponder is dumb? The guy got his undergrad degree in 2.5 years while playing Div 1 football and already has his MBA. That doesn't sound dumb to me.

Kaepernick is also supposedly very intelligent. Perhaps the smartest QB in the draft is Christian Ponder who got his undergraduate degree in 2.5 years and now already has an MBA. That's damn impressive given that he was playing Division 1 football which takes A LOT of time.

I generally agree with your sentiment here (that they haven't played a game since the Senior Bowl, so how do they move up?), but just some things that could help: 1. Teams interview a player and may be more impressed with his presence and ability to learn. 2. Teams run players through drills to see if they can perform NFL techniques - in Kaepernick's case, they might be having him take snaps from a center and watching him drop back. 3. Teams can do extensive background checks 4. Players can get bigger and stronger with focused training. 5. Flaws and health concerns might be found in other players at the same position 6. Maybe the "media" is only now catching on to what NFL personnel have thought about certain less visible players making it "appear" that the player's stock is rising. Just some thoughts...

These picks are VERY hard to trade. There has only been 1 top-5 pick traded in (I think) the last 6 years. I know about the possible rookie salary cap and how that *might* make trading up into the top 5 a bit more attractive, but it doesn't look like there will be a CBA in place at the time of the draft so that is just speculation.

What does the last paragraph that I wrote say? I distinguished between poor work-ethic and lack of dedication and stupid off-field incidents. Do you not think that a poor work ethic could cause someone to fail? What about the Bengals Andre Smith? He looks to be flaming out and there were signs that he might, yet he was quite dominant in college. I didn't say that you should discount any draft eligible player who has done something stupid, but I do think that if they haven't shown that they will work, that they can't learn or if they've been in trouble with the team or off-field several times, then you should consider that.

C'mon man, I've been watching the Bills for 40+ years and following the draft closely for another 25 years. After a while the names all kind of run together. Seriously, you think the point is invalid because I couldn't remember Travis Henry's name?

Some candidates: Newton - lots of off field issues, never has had to read a defense. Clear physical talent. Fairley - one year wonder, not as big/powerful as expected, lots of talent, but... Kyle Rudolph - always injured.

I think Mallett will fail, but because he is a numb-skull, not because he has poor foot speed.

Do you think character doesn't impact how good of a pro a player becomes? Look at a couple of former Bills: 1. Marshawn Lynch had character red-flags coming out of college. He had enough off-field problems in the NFL that the Bills ditched him and he is OK, nothing special in the NFL. 2, Unfortunately, I can't even remember his name, but he was the RB before they drafted McGahee. He had talent, but lots of off-field problems including shagging an underaged girl and he was kind of drummed out of the league. He now pays child support for something like 9 children to different women (not exaggerating). There are a boat-load of players who don't have the work-ethic to succeed in the NFL and they for the most part flame out in spite of their talent. Now, as Marv Levy used to say, it's the work-ethic and internal drive that you have to be concerned about. If a player has other stupid off-field stuff, you can hope that it doesn't get him suspended. BUT, the guys who haven't demonstrated the work-ethic most often fail.

I don't think that Braylon Edwards has really lived up to expectations. Cleveland didn't want him any longer and he did OK with the Jets. I do agree that Ryan, Thomas, Fitzgerald and Johnson are great.

The expectations that a #3 overall pick has to be a pro-bowler or is a bust is just flat unrealistic. You HOPE to get an outstanding player, expect to get a solid starter and dread missing completely like they did with Maybin.

With all the hype that UNC defensive players are getting, you'd think that their team would have been awesome. I don't think that they were (even the year before when all of their players weren't suspended).

Agreed and he doesn't even compare in speed. Miller ran something like a 4.53 in the 40 at the combine. If I remember correctly, Maybin was close to a 4.9 and his lack of speed was blamed on "bulking up from 225 to 245 too fast". Miller has only put on about 7 lbs since the end of his senior year and he had 2 completely outstanding years against good competition. Indeed, his 27 sacks the last 2 years are remarkable in the run-oriented conference that he played in. FWIW, ProFootballWeekly has Miller as BY FAR the highest rated player in the draft. I know that they are not always dead-on, but neither are any draft prognosticators. I give Nolan Nawrocki of PFW a lot of credit for doing both his own analysis AND for having a lot of NFL connections, so he has a good pulse on the NFL's view.

I like it. I was worried when you listed QB first, but it seems like many you don't see a franchise QB in the draft. Nit-picking: I am not sure Kelvin Sheppard is worth a 2nd and I don't think Dalton or Ponder will be around after the 2nd. FWIW, I like both Ponder and Dalton, as well as Kaepernick.

I kind of agree with this sentiment, but I don't like Newton in round 1 and I am not sure I like Gabbert enough to take there, either. I am a little intrigued with Ponder (who would likely be a 1st rnd pick if it weren't for the injury problems he's had with his arm) and Kaepernick who is every bit the athlete that Newton is, but comes at a much lower price if they get him in rnd 2 instead of Newton in rnd 1. I am not all that convinced that either Newton's or Kaepernick's athletic ability really mean much when projecting them to QB in the NFL. Look at the best QBs in the league: Manning, Rivers, Brees, Brady, Roethlisberger and Vick. Of them, Vick (has only had one great year (and he had to learn to be a good passer before he had that) and Roethlisberger are the only really good athletes. Heck, you could argue that Manning, Brady and Rivers are pretty "poor" athletes (at least by NFL standards). I'd rather see someone who has demonstrated in college that he can identify the right receiver to throw to and hit him when they aren't open by 5-10 yards. Something Newton hasn't had to do and I am not sure that Gabbert did much of that, either.