OldTimer1960

I respectfully disagree. I think that Williams is just fine at NT and I have high hopes for Troupe based on his work ethic. He is reportedly up into the 320lb range and that is more than big enough to play NT (now to see if he has the skills). Not every successful 3-4 defense has a 340lb NT.

I suggest that "only" maturity and work ethic are HUGE issues. Was Ray Lewis the most physically dominant LB in the last 10 years of the draft? No, it was his work ethic that made him great. Was Tom Brady a physically gifted QB? No, it is his work ethic that makes him great. I am sure that I could continue to name a number of guys who starred because of their work ethic. It is a shorter list of players who were terrifically talented, but had crappy work ethics and still starred anyway.

I don't think you can go wrong with Von Miller, either. 27 sacks in the last 2 years against top competition in a run-oriented conference? How do you beat that?

Ponder is dumb? The guy got his undergrad degree in 2.5 years while playing Div 1 football and already has his MBA. That doesn't sound dumb to me.

Kaepernick is also supposedly very intelligent. Perhaps the smartest QB in the draft is Christian Ponder who got his undergraduate degree in 2.5 years and now already has an MBA. That's damn impressive given that he was playing Division 1 football which takes A LOT of time.

I generally agree with your sentiment here (that they haven't played a game since the Senior Bowl, so how do they move up?), but just some things that could help: 1. Teams interview a player and may be more impressed with his presence and ability to learn. 2. Teams run players through drills to see if they can perform NFL techniques - in Kaepernick's case, they might be having him take snaps from a center and watching him drop back. 3. Teams can do extensive background checks 4. Players can get bigger and stronger with focused training. 5. Flaws and health concerns might be found in other players at the same position 6. Maybe the "media" is only now catching on to what NFL personnel have thought about certain less visible players making it "appear" that the player's stock is rising. Just some thoughts...

These picks are VERY hard to trade. There has only been 1 top-5 pick traded in (I think) the last 6 years. I know about the possible rookie salary cap and how that *might* make trading up into the top 5 a bit more attractive, but it doesn't look like there will be a CBA in place at the time of the draft so that is just speculation.

What does the last paragraph that I wrote say? I distinguished between poor work-ethic and lack of dedication and stupid off-field incidents. Do you not think that a poor work ethic could cause someone to fail? What about the Bengals Andre Smith? He looks to be flaming out and there were signs that he might, yet he was quite dominant in college. I didn't say that you should discount any draft eligible player who has done something stupid, but I do think that if they haven't shown that they will work, that they can't learn or if they've been in trouble with the team or off-field several times, then you should consider that.

C'mon man, I've been watching the Bills for 40+ years and following the draft closely for another 25 years. After a while the names all kind of run together. Seriously, you think the point is invalid because I couldn't remember Travis Henry's name?

Some candidates: Newton - lots of off field issues, never has had to read a defense. Clear physical talent. Fairley - one year wonder, not as big/powerful as expected, lots of talent, but... Kyle Rudolph - always injured.

I think Mallett will fail, but because he is a numb-skull, not because he has poor foot speed.

Do you think character doesn't impact how good of a pro a player becomes? Look at a couple of former Bills: 1. Marshawn Lynch had character red-flags coming out of college. He had enough off-field problems in the NFL that the Bills ditched him and he is OK, nothing special in the NFL. 2, Unfortunately, I can't even remember his name, but he was the RB before they drafted McGahee. He had talent, but lots of off-field problems including shagging an underaged girl and he was kind of drummed out of the league. He now pays child support for something like 9 children to different women (not exaggerating). There are a boat-load of players who don't have the work-ethic to succeed in the NFL and they for the most part flame out in spite of their talent. Now, as Marv Levy used to say, it's the work-ethic and internal drive that you have to be concerned about. If a player has other stupid off-field stuff, you can hope that it doesn't get him suspended. BUT, the guys who haven't demonstrated the work-ethic most often fail.

I don't think that Braylon Edwards has really lived up to expectations. Cleveland didn't want him any longer and he did OK with the Jets. I do agree that Ryan, Thomas, Fitzgerald and Johnson are great.

The expectations that a #3 overall pick has to be a pro-bowler or is a bust is just flat unrealistic. You HOPE to get an outstanding player, expect to get a solid starter and dread missing completely like they did with Maybin.

With all the hype that UNC defensive players are getting, you'd think that their team would have been awesome. I don't think that they were (even the year before when all of their players weren't suspended).

Agreed and he doesn't even compare in speed. Miller ran something like a 4.53 in the 40 at the combine. If I remember correctly, Maybin was close to a 4.9 and his lack of speed was blamed on "bulking up from 225 to 245 too fast". Miller has only put on about 7 lbs since the end of his senior year and he had 2 completely outstanding years against good competition. Indeed, his 27 sacks the last 2 years are remarkable in the run-oriented conference that he played in. FWIW, ProFootballWeekly has Miller as BY FAR the highest rated player in the draft. I know that they are not always dead-on, but neither are any draft prognosticators. I give Nolan Nawrocki of PFW a lot of credit for doing both his own analysis AND for having a lot of NFL connections, so he has a good pulse on the NFL's view.

I like it. I was worried when you listed QB first, but it seems like many you don't see a franchise QB in the draft. Nit-picking: I am not sure Kelvin Sheppard is worth a 2nd and I don't think Dalton or Ponder will be around after the 2nd. FWIW, I like both Ponder and Dalton, as well as Kaepernick.

I kind of agree with this sentiment, but I don't like Newton in round 1 and I am not sure I like Gabbert enough to take there, either. I am a little intrigued with Ponder (who would likely be a 1st rnd pick if it weren't for the injury problems he's had with his arm) and Kaepernick who is every bit the athlete that Newton is, but comes at a much lower price if they get him in rnd 2 instead of Newton in rnd 1. I am not all that convinced that either Newton's or Kaepernick's athletic ability really mean much when projecting them to QB in the NFL. Look at the best QBs in the league: Manning, Rivers, Brees, Brady, Roethlisberger and Vick. Of them, Vick (has only had one great year (and he had to learn to be a good passer before he had that) and Roethlisberger are the only really good athletes. Heck, you could argue that Manning, Brady and Rivers are pretty "poor" athletes (at least by NFL standards). I'd rather see someone who has demonstrated in college that he can identify the right receiver to throw to and hit him when they aren't open by 5-10 yards. Something Newton hasn't had to do and I am not sure that Gabbert did much of that, either.

I agree, if the team could upgrade the TE position it would do wonders for the offense. Unfortunately, as you indicate, the draft is VERY weak at TE. MAYBE they can score a decent TE in FA - IF there is FA this year...

I keep seeing people saying that Newton's ceiling is higher, but I don't understand why. Is it because of his running ability? If so, take Locker or Kaepernick who are similar or better athletes with equivalent arms. I don't see ANYTHING that Newton has done that translates to the NFL. Even Vince Young and Mike Vick haven't been big running threats in the NFL. Vick had to learn to be more of a passer to succeed and I am not sure Young has succeeded. Can anyone name a good NFL QB who was more of a threat as a runner than he was a passer? I'd have to go back to Bobby Douglas of the Bears in the 70s - and he wasn't a good QB. I just think that Newton is SOOO raw and hasn't proven that he has the work ethic to succeed. Maybe more importantly, he has ZERO experience reading defenses and making quick decisions on who to throw to. I think that is a very big issue, because I think that is the one thing that can't be taught. If it could be taught, then I think Rob Johnson and JP Losman would have been successful NFL QBs. Both had good-very good athletic ability and both had outstanding arms, yet they never could learn to make those quick decisions. On the flip side, nobody will every accuse Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers or Drew Brees of being great athletes or having cannons for an arm, but they are 4 of the very best QBs in the NFL - clearly there is more to being a good QB than having a big arm and great athletic ability.

The Bills will be fortunate to find a guy at #3 who has the career that Willie McGinest had. I don't think a lot of #3 picks were as good as he turned out. Where did anyone see that Gabbert is off the Bills board? I don't believe that for a minute.

Gailey made a BIG point last year of making rookies earn their playing time. IMHO, that was HUGE in keeping the veterans engaged. By keeping the rooks on the bench until they unseated a vet, it kept the vets playing hard - and setting a good example of professionalism for the rookies. Note that Spiller was benched quickly after he started slowly, Troup and Carrington had to earn their playing time, etc. I think that is win-win. The vets show play hard and show the rookies what it takes to play, the rookies realize they need to work hard to EARN a starting job. What's not to like about that? I don't think that Gailey will change that MO for any of the QBs in this rookie class. I think it would be a HUGE mistake, if he did. FWIW, I would HATE them taking Cam Newton. I don't see anything that he did in college translating to the NFL. He won with his legs and the threat of a run getting his first read open. IF the Bills insist on an "athletic" QB, then I'd rather have Gabbert or Locker or Kaepernick (in round 2). I see NOTHING that Newton has on Locker in terms of athletic ability or production and I don't see anyone clammoring for Locker at #3. I think Locker wins in terms of work ethic and dedication and he is at least even in terms of athletic ability. Yes, Newton's completion % was better, but he played on a very talented Auburn team that featured his running and Locker played in a VERY bad program, but it was more a pro-style offense. Now, I am not touting Locker at #3. I am just saying that I like him better than Newton. Given my druthers, I'd go D in round one and consider the best of Locker, Kaepernick and Dalton in round 2.

Because the QBs aren't that good. I don't like Newton at all and am only a little sold that Gabbert is any better prospect than Locker, Kaepernick, Ponder and Dalton. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that passing on a QB in round 1 and finding one in round 2-7 is a great option, all things being equal. I AM saying that I don't really think that there is a QB worth a first round pick this year. FWIW, if they feel strongly that they MUST have a QB in round 1, to me it is Gabbert or bust. I don't like Newton's personality, character concerns or the fact that he won with his legs rather than his arm.

If the Panthers like Clausen so little that they'd take a 6th round pick for him 1 year after spending their 2nd on him, then that would speak volumes about how little is thought of Clausen.