OldTimer1960

I think that we agree then, only difference of opinion is our perception of their trade up “capital”. I can get behind going after a player that they believe is much better than other remaining options, but I would have to think hard before giving up their 2nd ot 3rd round picks to move up into the back 25% of the first round. From my my vantage point, I’d reserve the extra picks in 4th, 5th and seventh for moving around back into late day 2 or for moving in the 4th/5th round area if they think there are one or two day 2 players that lingered into day 3. I think in the 1st and 2nd, where they ar3 picking, they will have multiple good prospects to select from, but on early day 3 (or late day2), there might be a small number of players that they like a lot more than the majority of the remaining players. Just my $.02 worth.

I’m with the OP, I am leery of both Metcalf (production and injuries) and Oliver (under-sized). I’m not saying that I would hate either, just that I am more worried about those two than the seeming majority of TBD who love these two. Other potential 1st round picks that I’d shy away from: Rashan Gary: With his physical abilities, why was he not dominant? Some suggestions that he played all season with an injured shoulder might allow a team to justify his lower than expected production. Brian Burns: To his credit, he put on at least 20 lbs of muscle in the last 3 months, weighing nearly 250 at the combine. But, can anyone look at his games from 2018 and really believe that he weighed more than 225-230? If he really put on 20lbs of muscle in less than 3 months, then 1 - can he really maintain that weight through a season? 2 - Did he have steroid help to put on that much muscle? Can anyone really put on that much muscle in 2.5 months naturally?

You're right, I've only seen highlights of him but he was tremendous. I forgot to include him.

??? You would not draft a “potential Pro Bowler” at pick 9? What are you expecting- a first ballot HOFer?

Then what picks would you suggest that they use to make a bigger move? Yes, they have 3 extra picks this year, but those extra picks are: late 4th, early 5th and a 7th. That won’t buy much of a big move. As I said in the post that you replied to, their 2nd + 3rd might get them into the back end of round 1 and adding in both 4ths would only move them a little further into the first.

I'm not against them trading up, but their 2nd and 3rd only gets them into the very back of the 1st and adding both 4ths doesn't move them much further up. i think that they'll sit tight in round 1 and 2 but might try to package both 4ths into another late 3rd or maybe try to trade up to the top of the 4th two grad the best guy remaining on day 4.

Watching the NFL for 50 years, in my opinion: 1. Barry Sanders - unequivocally the best that I've ever seen 2. Earl Campbell- nobody could tackle this beast and he was very fast as well. 3. OJ Simpson - simply unstoppable on a one dimensional team (no passing game)

Many day 3 picks. They only have 2 picks on day 2 - 1 each in 2nd and 3rd.

Not Singletary with his 4.7 40. Note that I didn’t say he can’t play, but he is small, not fast and played at a low level of competition. I can’t see how he could go before the 3rd and he may be available later. Again, it’s not that I don’t like him because I do, but his lack of size, speed and low level of competition likely pushes his draft stock down.

Why? I submit because blocking certainly can help the run game, which in turn can help open up the pass game. Further, pass blocking by the TE can help provide more time for the QB to find those smaller WRs Right, remember that OC Daboll had Gronk - who was both a very good blocker and receiving threat - in NE. Think he might want a similar player as a min cog in Buffalo...

If you are saying that you favor a guy with high upside, I can understand. However, based on history it isn't anywhere near a given that a guy at pick 9 will be "multiple time Pro Bowler/All Pro guy". I like Hockenson - love his attitude, effort, desire, blocking and he is a good receiver (maybe not great, but good). Oliver, on the other hand- I won't be disappointed if they take him, but his lack of size and relative lack of productivity concern me. My concern with Oliver isn't really anything to do with his attitude or "jacket-gate", when I watch game tape of him he clearly plays with good effort and his quickness is really outstanding. That being said, he looks very small out there even against college competition and while I recognize that he was consistently double-teamed I didn't feel like he was a dominating player in the games that I watched.

I still could see them consider a LB early- Devin White at 9 isn’t out of the question, though I think they will lean DL there. Easily could see LB in round 2 or 3.

I am on board with trade ups and trade downs. I think that if they believe in their evaluations, it is wise to consider either option. I don’t think that it will make sense to trade up in round 1, but I could see it being plausible in subsequent rounds. To to be clear, the extra picks that they have are not high value picks in terms of “draft capital”. They have an extra 4th and an extra 5th and something else in round 6 or 7. The extra 4th plus their 4th would maybe net them a late 3rd - possibly of value if they like someone after their pick in round 3. Likewise, their extra 5th plus their own could get them into the backend of the 4th if that makes sense at the time.

I am not 100% sold on Oliver. His size bothers me and so far I've watched two full games of his from last season and I didn't see a dominant player. His quickness was evident and he was doubled nearly every play, but I did not see - in those two games - someone that I'd HAVE to take at 9 if he is available. I think that he belongs in the conversation at 9, but he shouldn't be the only guy in that conversation.

My point was that 19th pick in the first round should not be expected to be a star. Sure, you *hope* to get a great player there, but finding a good long term starter should be the goal and that isn't guaranteed, either as the list of players picked there shows. I am not saying that Lawson is great, but I thought that he played pretty well last year in the opportunities that he had. If he develops into a strong run defender who can produce 6-8 sacks per year, then I believe that would not be a disappointment based on his draft position.

Michael Griffin, Jeff Otah, Jeremy Maclin, Sean Weatherspoon, Prince Amukamara, Shea McLellin, Justin Pugh, Ja’Wuan James, Cameron Erving, Shaq Lawson. Those are the last 10 19th overall picks through 2016 (long enough ago for those picks to give a feel for their career) - Shaq Lawson fits in that list well. Griffin, Maclin, Pugh and James have been good multi-year starters with Griffin likely the best. Otah, Weatherspoon haven’t had success, McLellin has been ok, but no better than Lawson. My my point is that we all get enamored with the draft prospects of the current year and it is easy to think that all top round picks should be dominant players, but that is simply waaay overestimating the impacts that you can really expect from first round picks. Be happy if you can find a good long-term starter.

Their 2 4ths might get them into the back end of the 3rd if they wanted. If the right player was still available after their 2nd pick, they might be able to trade their 3rd and both 4ths to get back to the middle of the 2nd. They don’t really have enough value in picks to do both.

His lack of size and speed is a concern, but man is he shifty! I’m not sure that I could pull the trigger on him in early round 2. I’d be leery in the early 3rd as well, but could see why someone would take him.

I think that Dillard should really be a consideration. If they think that he can become a good run blocker and get stronger, then an outstanding pass-blocker warrants attention there. i think that Oliver may not be thought of as highly among NFL teams as his early draft projections suggested. He is very undersized and did not play at the highest level of competition. i can't see Jonah Williams as a strong contender for the pick, but I could see them being high on Jawaan Taylor's power and athletic ability for is size at RT. I do strongly believe that the Bills want to be a run heavy O early in Allen's career. Have a look at Dillard's "tape" - he is a ready-made pass protector who lacks experience and some strength to be a top run blocker. Thing is, both strength and experience can be addressed.

He is a guy who could be a great blocking TE if he has agility and hands to be a little threat as a receiver. I understand he converted fro TE to OT in college, so dropping weigh and going back could be pretty natural. I think the Bills still want a run heavy offense and he could be a good addition to that. I saw saw maybe some upside in Croom last year as a receiver, but I don’t think that Croom, Kraft and Fisher would prevent them from taking a TE high if there was one available that they really like.

It isn’t limited to this post, but there is way too much hyperbole about “elite talent”, “generational players”, “game changers”, etc. Likely there will be some very good, maybe great players to come out of this draft, but finding those few that might fit that description is the challenge. In no draft is pick 9 guaranteed (or even likely) to produce a great player - let alone “finding a game changing starter in the 2nd or 3rd”. I’m not saying that there aren’t good players in this draft, but being realistic, if the Bills find a good long term starter at 9 and eventual starters in 2nd and 3rd, it would be a GREAT draft. That kind of haul doesn’t happen a lot.

Do you mean Ed Oliver? If you are saying it would be an egregious error to pass on him, it would lend credibility to your argument to get his name right. FWIW, I am not sold on Oliver, but could see why they might want to take him. I see him as a gamble at his (under) size. His quickness could prevail at the NFL level, too, or he might struggle being 15-20 lbs undersized (or somewhere in between)

For sure, Metcalf is really an athletic freak - a term that I think is very over-used. If the coaches whom he played against can explain his lack of production compared to his teammates by saying that their objective was to stop him first, then great - otherwise a big red flag. That doesn’t mean that Metcalf is a hard pass for me, but I think he is a high ceiling low floor prospect.

This is (IMHO) a fallacy. Go back even 20 years and assess how many All Pros were picked at 9. Then also look at how many 9th picks have truly not panned out, then look at the remaining picks that had good, not great, careers. I think that you’ll find that the bust equal or exceed the stars. Key is to find high floor guys that can be good starters and hope a few of them turn out to be great. Avoid the high ceiling, low floor guys like plague.

Pretty realistic- most of the mocks on here are showing players in every round that are likely to be picke a round or two before these mocks having them going to Bills