BADOLBILZ

Ehh......is 3.8 yards per carry and 8.3 yards per reception really an offensive weapon or still just a RB? Those are Kamara's averages in 7 career playoff games. His regular season #'s are better but giving the ball to even the greatest RB is probably a less productive proposition than just chucking it at Gabe Davis..........which should say enough about the relative value of the RB position.

1) What you don't seem to understand about the "running backs don't move the line" point is why years ago it became important to note in the first place. A top RB handles the ball 30%-40% of his teams offensive snaps in a game...........in theory he has FAR, FAR greater opportunity to individually alter the score/outcome of the game than any other non-QB. And yet......despite seemingly overwhelming odds that they WOULD be a key deciding factor in the outcome of game.........they have proven NOT to be..........which should be an eye opener. Instead your take is........"well the guys who don't touch the ball don't move the line either". 2) Assuming a better chance to beat the Chiefs because of any individual RB is laughably "on paper" thinking. Do people learn nothing about what happens to RB's when their team gets behind? They get taken out of the gameplan entirely. Derrick Henry is by far the most productive back in the league. The Titans have made the playoffs the last 3 seasons.....fell behind in the 3 losses........in which he ultimately carried the ball 49 times for a dismal average of 2.8 ypc. How does that change in KC when the Chiefs are on a 36-0 scoring streak passing the ball for huge yardage plays? 3) It's pretty well known that you aren't likely to get a great pass rusher after the top half of round one...........but the position is definitely A LOT more difficult to fill competently than RB and subsequently far more valuable and expensive to stock. The difference between a top pass rusher and a JAG is a lot greater than a top producing RB and a JAG RB........which is only a fraction of a yard per carry and is even more dependent on other players than the performance of a pass rusher. They say edge players and corners are "on an island" because they actually face one-on-one matchups that they can affect with less need for assistance. 4) So if the question is would Vernon Butler drafters Carolina be better off with Derrick Henry or Christian McCaffrey? The answer is........who cares? I mean outside of "fantasy" football owners. Those other teams aren't handicapped because they passed on a RB in round one......they have other issues. 5) Nick Chubb is a nice player.........but still his amazing 5.2 ypc career average is not nearly enough to take the ball out of the hands of a QB that throws for nearly 8 yards per attempt like Josh Allen. Ultimately this is why the running game is devalued. The value of a pass play dwarfs that of a run play. Use those early draft assets on key positions that actually advance your passing game........there are other ways to be successful running the ball than drafting a RB early. It's almost impossible to pass the ball at a high level without elite talent though.

While it's true that the value of the 5th year option has been diminished...........it's still important with key positions..........which is of course where you should be using your first round picks on anyway. The most obvious example is Josh Allen. That option definitely should be picked up. Even if it were the same value as a franchise tag........it's not the franchise tag so you could in theory pay Josh his option and then pay almost the same money in 2023 on the first year you used the franchise tag on him instead of having that value escalate quickly the way it did for Dallas with Dak because they only had him under contract for 4 seasons because he wasn't a 1st round pick. I get your point about THAT type of player being one you extend though............to which I would counter with a guy like Dion Dawkins. Suppose he were a first round pick...........played as he has.......admirably at LT but wasn't a Pro Bowler or top of the league guy........having that fifth year option at LESS than the tag amount provides leverage to negotiate a more team friendly deal. It's kind of the opposite of like what is happening with Tremaine Edmunds........he plays a lesser value position in the NFL.......collected a couple Pro Bowls despite not really being a top 8-10 MLB because all the stud MLB's are in the NFC........and now his option is worth more than he probably is to the team.

He's got an impressive frame........at 6' 7" for a LB he was a player I was inclined to follow..........but I could never really see where he would be a fit for the Bills. Of course I never thought they would put an edge prospect like Tremaine Edmunds at MLB and then later end up desperate for pass rushers...........so who knows how they would envision his role.

It does read eerily like a number of posts I've made here...........right down to referencing the 2010 rules changes that really made it a no-doubt-about-it passing league. Despite the OVERWHELMING evidence that drafting a RB in round 1 is a terrible use of a nice resource...........there will always be those who insist that THIS ONE TIME is the exception.

My favorite rookie stat combo of his was the 209 carries.........but only 7 receptions! As @DCOrange said.........he's the definition of one dimensional............and in that one dimension his career average is just 4.3 yards per carry.......one degree north of the equator.

I agree he was a tremendous pass rusher and would have been an even better fit in today's game. I think he got swept up in the losing culture. The environment around the organization was so awful back then...........Schobel got to a point where he just wanted to fly in for games and not have to be in Buffalo to practice.......a crazy demand..........Buddy Nix couldn't let things degenerate THAT badly so he basically had no choice but to tell Schobel to retire. If Schobel had played for the Patriots I think he plays at least another 3 seasons.

I do believe he opted out because, not yet knowing the consequences of doing so, Beane guaranteed his base salary to get him to take the pay cut. If his base salary wasn't guaranteed and he opted out, Beane could have cut him after the season and Star never sees that money. Like he did EJ Gaines.

I was making the same point the past month when I assumed it was a $2M difference between the option and the tag. Plus, then you are competing against that $12.7 gtd for just one season if you are trying to get a reasonable extension done. People are free to disagree but here are two simple reasons to not unnecessarily guarantee top dollar two years down the line to an off-ball LB when you don't need to: Sam Cowart Takeo Spikes One injury and overnight they went from All Pro to All JAG.

I'm not certain but I wouldn't consider $2.2M a big difference at all when it comes to committing to a fully guaranteed salary 2 years down the road for an off-ball LB. That's what's changed with this 5th year option.........the NFLPA doesn't get much respect but they certainly have succeeded in marginalizing the value of 5th year options. If they are worth picking up the option they are worth that much and 50% guaranteed on a 5 year deal. I don't think I'd put Edmunds in that category.......whether it was $13M or $15M per year.

I suspect they will too...........but as you know I generally am skeptical of their motives because so much of their success has only come after first blundering. I hope they are smarter than that..........it's simple dollars and sense.

Seeing that the 5th year option value with 2 Pro Bowls = the franchise tag value.............I think it would be illogical for the Bills to pick up the option. That's a huge amount of injury risk for what would only amount to a "vote of confidence". Just let him play it out..........dangle the UFA carrot.........and make him EARN that $15M 2022 tag rather than just picking up the option for $15M now.

The above is why, IMO, you have to have systems in place for drafting and not easily stray from them(as so many posters here would do annually for their favorite RB or LB). You need to realize what you said...........that offense is the better investment..........especially when you have a franchise QB. I think the system of only selecting key, big money positions in round 1 (QB, pass rusher, LT, CB1, WR1) allows you some room to address the most critical defensive positions before you hit that slippery slope and start selecting 1T DT's and off-ball LB's. But ultimately, if you have a $40M QB you are going to have to be an offense driven team.

The only time the Bills had that kind of 1T player under McD was the brief period that Dareus was here. Star isn't an automatic double team draw.........he got singled plenty, unfortunately. The 1T position itself lends itself to double teaming schematically.......which is why whoever played it last year (Phillips, Butler, Zimmer, Oliver, Jefferson) all drew consistent double teams. The 3T is positioned on the guard's outside shoulder........so with the OT occupied it's challenging to double team that player. It would be nice to have a 1T like Damon Harrison was a couple years ago who could FORCE double teams with his physical presence and still put up a staggering 70+ tackles..........but instead they have Star who just does draws them because he's positioned there and then labors to average a tackle per game.

Gronk just got a 1 year $10M deal in a depressed market as a UFA. Ertz is under contract for just $8.5M. Once you trade for him any negotiating leverage or incentive to take a pay cut is gone. I could see him on the Bills after he goes thru the process of being released and testing the market........... but he has no real trade value, IMO...........cap figure is too big..........he sees 2020 as an aberration rather than a steep decline.........a similar player has just been paid MORE in UFA etc.. It's not like he's chasing a ring.

Tampa is a team full of grizzled vets........and now a SB ring..........I doubt they will see the value in playing that hard in the regular season after they just went from 7-5 to winning the SB. Chiefs are still the best bet.

Why does Ertz re-work his deal? I don't see where he has any motivation to do so. It's not like he's chasing a ring. I am sure he wants to hit UFA next offseason and that limits the re-structuring options.

Yeah there is a perception that the 1T in the Bills defense is not supposed to make any tackles or plays...........but it isn't the NT position...........the 1T is positioned between the guard and the center which is still an opportunity to shoot gaps and make plays for the right player. In Lotulelei's first two seasons he had 16 TFL's.........his play simply dropped off which is why he's had 16 in his last 5 seasons combined. It doesn't have to be a net zero position statistically. I don't see them using that pick on Barmore though. They just need a big slug with a decent motor to keep the relative status quo of the past 3 seasons of Bills defense. That's not worth a high pick or a lot of money.

They cut Star's pay after the 2019 season and structured the deal so they could release him after the 2020 season. Actions speak louder than words. You can field fluffy quotes about his play all you want............I believe Lorenzo Alexander once said that Tremaine Edmunds was going to be a HOF'er.

No, it doesn't advance his argument. I think you are confused about what I was responding to. I was answering @HappyDays claim that the Bills were unable to replace Star. After a slow start where they tried to make all the DT's share the statistically unrewarding task of playing the 1T.........by midseason they had replaced him with effectively the same level of play or even slightly better. Vernon Butler replicated Star's performance both statistically and stylistically. Butler and Phillips drew their double teams at the line and the Bills front created plenty of clean looks for Edmunds which were still just too often misplayed by Edmunds. Again.......2020 was a MUCH more difficult schedule. They went from maybe their easiest schedule in over 40 years to one of the most difficult schedules in the league. Everything was much easier in 2019 when the Bills were playing a host of unexplosive, one-dimensional offenses. It would be good if they upgraded their 1T. But it's not a position they need another $10M/yr player or first round pick to play. I don't think the Bills even have real confidence that Star will be on the field this year so I do assume they will make a move during or after the draft to add another 1T. Their intention was obviously to cut Star after the 2020 season, hence the structuring of the contract when they forced the pay cut.

If it's the same as the franchise tag there isn't any reason to pick it up and guarantee his pay 2 seasons down the road..........just use the tag when the time comes due. No value in taking the risk..........plus it dangles a carrot this year.

Edmunds had 10 TFL in 2019.........Preston Brown had 7 in 2017. Edmunds has just 9 in his other two seasons combined. You besmirched ol' Preston using TFL numbers as the basis when there really wasn't much difference.....Edmunds hasn't even averaged as many as Preston did to earn his walking papers. Bottom line, neither have been playmakers. And as I've said before.........that 2019 schedule was maybe the easiest they've had since the league went to 16 games. It really caused some unrealistic expectations relative to the talent the Bills defense was putting on the field.

I would say that "in a good year" this years 4th rounders would be 6th or 7th rounders. I wouldn't characterize "normal" drafts as being good. It's hit and miss. Like 2016 was a BAD draft. Look at the back half of that first round. But still there were studs like Michael Thomas and Dak Prescott and Tyreek Hill and good players like Austin Hooper and Matt Judos and DJ Reader as you progressed past the first round. Perhaps the takeaway from that 2016 draft was that taking "off the bus starters" wasn't a great idea in a hit and miss draft. The Bills approach was lose-lose........they drafted guys with low ceilings and found out that they also had low floors.

Preston Brown was top ONE in the entire NFL in tackles in this defense in 2017. Stats aren't going to help defend Edmunds.........his 3 year totals are not impressive.........especially big plays LIKE tfl's and turnover stats. To put the TFL stats in perspective.......he has 19 in 3 years.........Roquan Smith had 18 last year. He hasn't forced or recovered a fumble in his last 42 regular season games. Guy just doesn't make plays anywhere near commensurate to his physical gifts. Also, Edmunds #'s get worse in the playoffs. And saying he is better than a JAG Preston Brown isn't saying much. We are talking about the difference between a guy getting a cheap, one year $4M deal after leading the league in tackles versus Edmunds maybe getting a 5 year $70M deal to keep just being "better than Preston Brown".