BADOLBILZ

He's very Jordan Mills-esque. It wouldn't be good if he were starting but it's certainly no worse than getting caught playing Mike Remmers at tackle. Hopefully Hart is getting the minimum. Remmers somehow got $3M in this market.

"It was an odd thing to bring up in this context".........GMAFB GB. When it came out that Watson was demanding a trade people, like yourself, RUSHED to defend him with the logic that the Texans management were lesser quality human beings ("Jesus Freaks!") than him. He deserved to work with better people. My opinion was stand by what you actually know about the situation. You really knew nothing about either side personally...........but you filled in A LOT of blanks to contrive an argument for one side. It's a common mistake.......you will probably insist otherwise because you are stubborn.........but I suspect next time you might be more inclined to realize that you don't know what you don't know rather than just auto-filling.

Another lesson for people who rallied behind Watson under the premise that this "poor guy" shouldn't have to play for "Jesus Freaks". You don't know these guys. Stick to what you ACTUALLY know about them..........which in Watson's case was that he signed a huge contract that nobody forced him to.......knowing that the organization was under intense criticism for their decisions.......and 5 months later was demanding he be traded.

"they were going straight down the toilet but ran out of schedule." They are making the most of their runway this year.............congrats on tying the record with your 18th straight winless game Sabres! Yeah........their situation is not like the Bills drought........the Bills were just mediocre for most of that period.........the Sabres have been the worst franchise in sports in the period the Pegula's have owned them. It's crazy bad.

With the 4 and 5 star recruits though............these kids families have dollar signs in their eyes..........those kids don't always get to choose what THEY want. I remember reading a story about Patrick Peterson years ago and how he had desperately wanted to be a RB but his father said no way..........the money is at CB.......and the rest is history. Peterson is the kind of athlete that might have run for 8k-10K yards 20 years ago........those guys aren't even playing the position now. It's a shock when you see a guy like Derrick Henry who has a $20M per year pass rusher body but somehow ends up staying at RB.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Toney won't run the 40 on Thursday at the Gators Pro Day. His is probably the biggest 40 in the entire draft.........1 tenth of a second could turn the 4 years of his rookie deal from $12M to $4M. If he isn't blazing in his private 40's he might just decide to feign a hammy and stand on his tape and hope someone still takes him in the top 40 picks.

No he's not as fast as Parrish. Toney reminds me of a poor-man's Peter Warrick. Warrick was seen as the most elusive WR college football had ever seen.........but he had only 4.56 speed(which today would probably read as 4.5 flat speed). He was a good player but generally considered a major disappointment because the lack of speed didn't translate to the pros. And that was a couple decades ago.........the back 7 of defenses are much faster now. To me, I wouldn't touch Toney in round 1 unless he runs a sub 4.4 40...........not worth the risk.........tons of good WR prospects in this draft it would be foolish to get yourself beat on day one.

Yep. Back in the 90's I used to say that the 3rd best athlete on most NFL teams was the 3rd string RB(who basically never played back then). Evolving into a pass-centric league has actually put the best athletes on the field. What the league needs to do though is figure out a bonus system or different pay scale for players who run the football.........those dudes take too much of the abuse for too little pay. As I pointed out Travis Etienne touched the ball over 800 times in 4 years in college...........Steve Largent and Shannon Sharp caught 819 passes each in 14 year NFL careers........the beating RB's take relative to other skill positions is substantial.

You don't get to 40K posts by actually reading posts you are responding to.

I think we are seeing that elusiveness with the ball in hand....but without real speed......doesn't yield the returns it did 10 years ago even. Back 7's are just too fast now. Real speed has emerged as a bigger factor........and real speed doesn't start until you get under that 4.4 mark now.

Has Toney run a 40 yet? All I can find is his recruiting 40 which was a laughable 4.69.

First.......pro football only exists to make money. And everybody that says they don't need more football watches more football if more football is on. Until that stops then the supply is not meeting the demand........it will be 18 games by 2023 most likely. Which is more advertising opportunities for things that you might see as more of a need..........like different alcoholic drinks, chicken sandwiches and pizza concoctions. This is how real business actually works. Keep it coming NFL.........1 more week to tailgate is a need for me.

It's funny though that there is this perception that wear and tear STARTS to accumulate at the pro level. Between Harris and Etienne we are talking about almost 1600 touches already between carries, catches and returns. That's a lot of collisions at a very high level of college football. Alabama and Clemson might have already squeezed out a lot of that first contract production. And perhaps that's one reason why so many first round RB's turn into outright disappointments or busts. They are in an evaluator's blind spot.........too productive in college to ignore.......if you squint and tilt your head they may seem like a worthwhile risk at 30.........but the impact of their existing mileage is hard to quantify.

I wouldn't call it a good piece. Meh. Too many omissions. He thoroughly presents the pro-drafting a RB in round 1 side........which is admittedly a small/weak argument so it's easier to cover..........and undersold just how bad of a proposition drafting RB's in round 1.......especially after the top 10 picks......has been. And he almost entirely omits the opportunity cost of taking a RB. Things change FAST in the NFL........the Bills aren't totally set up everywhere for 5 years........they could be absolutely desperate for help on the lines or secondary in 2 seasons and not have enough money to address those key positions with quality......we just don't know. That's why you should treat the early part of the draft to build the long term foundation of your team..........and RB's are never that. The Chiefs drafted CEH.........that is sold as something of a win..........but in reality he basically performed like Devin Singletary when he got the ball last season.........they tried to upgrade on him with LeVeon Bell(which failed because Bell was shot). I don't think Harris or Etienne are better prospects than CEH.........but fwiw, Etienne is spun as wildly productive and durable...........it's not mentioned how his ypc dropped from 7.8 to 5.2 in his senior year.......and if that's maybe because he's already had well over 800 touches on his smallish frame. Also, he actually sucks at KOR's.........maybe because 4.44 is pretty fast for a RB nowadays.....but not REALLY exceptionally fast for a skill position. I think a big part of this issue with these RB's is something I've already touched on..........they AREN'T the athletes that once populated the position. A guy like Etienne is probably nothing more than a reserve NFL RB in the 80's and 90's. Guys like that couldn't take the pounding and keep producing. Gaughan wants to sell the idea that what you sacrifice long term with RB's.......you make up with concentrated impact. But in reality even the Zekes and Barkley's and McCaffreys are probably only going to give you 3 exceptional years out of 5. And those are the "HR", generational types. The track record outside those types that are taken in round 1 is abysmal.

Generally speaking the early rounds produce a much higher % of star players than the later rounds. It's just much easier to get high quality play from mid-late round running backs than it is late rounders at positions like QB, Pass Rushers, LT, CB........ And when you have a need at THOSE positions..........you really have a need........and they cost A LOT more to acquire in free agency.........if you can even find ones in UFA that aren't full of red flags.

In 2019 USA Today ranked the top running backs selected in round one in the past decade: 16. Jahvid Best 15. David Wilson 14. Trent Richardson 13. CJ Spiller 12. Ryan Matthews 11. Doug "muscle hamster" Martin 10. Rashaad Penny 9. Josh Jacobs (3.9 ypc last year....yuck) 8. Leonard Fournette (a career sub 4.0 ypc in a league where the average ypc is 4.2) 7. Sony Michel (only season he stayed healthy had 3.7 ypc) 6. Melvin Gordon (4 of his 6 seasons below 4.0 ypc) 5. Mark Ingram (long, solid career as a rotational back but not a playmaker) 4. Todd Gurley 3. Saquon Barkley 2. Christian Mccaffrey 1. Ezekiel Elliott Only the top 4 have been elite RB's..........and they weren't just first round picks......they were all picked with top 10 overall picks. And Gurley flamed out at the end of his age 24 season and Barkley is now surgically repaired after putting in two very good seasons. Fournette, Richardson and Spiller were also top 10 picks.......so even being THAT certain that the RB will be great isn't anywhere close to a lock. The rest of that list could have been undrafted and nobody would be astonished that they weren't selected. So who are all these "in most situations" guys that prove that anywhere in the 1st round is where you get superstar RB's? Last year CEH was the RB that was selected in round 1.........go back and compare his numbers to Singletary year 2......very similar.....(and note that Singletary year 1 averaged 5.0 ypc).

Yep, settle it........tell everyone you have a mental disorder that traces back to only being able to get network television channels with trashy talk shows as a kid. Then announce that he is receiving spiritual counseling from that reformed tv preacher that was screwing the hockey player back in the 80's..........fans love a comeback story.

You pointed out some good current RB's that went in round 1...........I pointed out a greater number of dynamic current RB's that went from the 3rd round all the way to being undrafted. That is proof that you can get top quality RB production anywhere in the draft. You can't tell me that the difference between McCaffrey and Kamara/Jones is "huge". That's just not true. And Moss and Singletary don't actually suck........they are pretty good backs but they were drafted for an offense that was under center with a lot of 12 personnel, sometimes a fullback.......more of a power run blocking scheme. But when Allen broke out last fall.........they became more of a spread offense, shotgun predominant, zone blocking team..........which better suits backs that are quicker, faster 1 cut types...... like Matt Breida. With so much of the NCAA running spread offenses I like the odds of a good scouting staff being able to identify players that fit the system well anywhere in the draft.

First, you are mixing generations of RB's. The Marshall Faulk type athletes don't even play RB anymore. They make the big money playing CB or WR or S. You can't draft a RB in round 1 anymore and assume he's going to ball out for 8-10 years. As the level of athlete has decreased 26 has become the new 30. Second........the best all purpose RB's in the league are a hodgepodge of guys like McCaffrey(1st round), Kamara (3rd round) Aaron Jones (5th round) and Austin Ekeler(undrafted who caught 92 passes in 2019). The Bills need speed.......the fastest RB's in the NFL over the past 3 seasons are probably Raheem Mostert and Philip Lindsay.......also both undrafted. I think you should take a closer look at who the best RB's in the NFL are. And then eliminate guys like Zeke and Derrick Henry who need an offense tailored to them or at least need the ball handed to them 20+ times per game to have their full impact........because that doesn't make sense with a Josh Allen at QB. I don't know if there is even a "kind" of RB you can only find in round one.........but what I do know is that the kind the Bills need you can find all over the draft and in UDFA. It's proven.

Yes Shaq was a good example of that. The $20M+ positions going forward are QB, Pass Rusher, LT, CB, WR1...........if there isn't one of those that your organization can envision becoming a cornerstone player at one of those positions.........trade back. In the unlikely scenario where you can't project a very good prospect at any of the key positions, work your way down the list. RB is literally last on the offensive/defensive positional value spots.

I think using the term "weapons in the passing game" makes it seem like the returns in giving RB's touches are much greater than they are.

It's not a nerve.........it's just something we go thru every 2-3 draft seasons on here......there is always a different rationale........"the winning mindset" was a creative one......points for that. Me pointing out how nonsensical drafting a RB is in round 1 is just part of "the process". First of all.......the further we get from the regular season the further removed fans get from what actually works on the field. And I'm not saying that Beane won't make the mistake of misallocating a valuable asset.........he's made his share of mistakes like reaching past better players at more important positions to fill perceived needs at lesser ones with the likes of Cody Ford, Singletary, Moss etc. But I do think that they are more likely to pick up a player at a more important position. The financial pinch they are in will really limit their ability to re-stock much more important positions in the coming years. And the idea that "well a RB can help right away and if you get 5 top years out of them....." just doesn't actually pan out because as the position has become devalued so has the overall quality of athlete playing it. With less than a full handful of exceptions......the lead backs of today would have been the Kenny Davises of yesteryear...........fine for a short period of time.......but not up to the task longer term. Which is fine..........it's a passing league.........Josh Allen produces 8 yards on average every time he passes the ball.........Jim Brown couldn't make it worthwhile to take the ball out of his hands. The difference between top backs and guys like Singletary and Moss is less than a measly half yard per carry.

Name one RB that the Bills passed on that went in round 1 that you regret missing on. Go back 30 years to 1990 if you'd like. It doesn't happen. And no, the 30th pick is not almost a 2nd round pick.........having the 5th year option alone is a HUGE distinction.........especially if that player turns out to be someone who can man one of the "$20M+" positions (QB/PassRusher/LT/CB/WR1). Wasting your top pick on a RB when you are about to enter a period where you are going to be tight to the cap for the foreseeable future is not so much a "winning mindset" as it is a shortsighted one.

I was unaware that there was so much hate about the Bass pick..........that seems a bit exaggerated on your part. I liked using a late pick on a talented kicker.........late round picks are fair game for any position. As for getting a true game changer for 5 years..........that's a lot to ask of a RB nowadays. Zeke Elliott was IMO the best RB prospect of the past decade of drafts...........and he's been the best producing RB selected in round 1 in that span........and has now actually played in the NFL for 5 years..........and still in 2 of those seasons handing the ball off to him has been a less-than-league-average per-carry proposition. The odds are more in favor of that RB ending up producing like Fournette or Sony Michel than they are getting 3 "game changer" seasons out of 5 like Elliott. The era of RB's you could expect to be good every year until they turned 30 seems to have ended with guys like AD and Shady..........the position doesn't pay so the best amateur athletes just don't say there. Instead each draft class of RB's seems to be a field of players like Etienne who don't have the size or length to project to a more premium position. Today's starting RB's are the athletes that would have been the backup RB's 20 years ago.

This is the equivalent of a futures contract signing..........I will be a bit surprised if he even makes it to camp.