BADOLBILZ

The numbers are in the links you provided that you didn't even actually read. As for the drops I do not know............what I do know is that the further you get from the LOS the harder it gets to complete flat throws........that's why the out-pass is considered such a critical test of arm strength..........and when Allen tried to put air under the deeper passesl he threw too many uncatchable balls and when he did not the ball was often more difficult to catch as a result. It literally was for the Cardinals.

Three more completions over 40 would be huge. They were already excellent on short to intermediate throws last season........but by the playoffs defenses were no longer giving them the space or free releases and running room that they had during the regular season and the offense labored. Adding Sanders is fine but good receivers still need room to work..........which is what they lacked without proficiency at throwing deep to WR's or a seam stretching TE. Allen was good on short throws already in 2019...........then he became one of the best at 20-25 yard throws 2020.......the next step is getting into the club on deep throws. I'm not sure why there is such denial about it. It's important and Allen and Palmer know it.

The difference is that I have long term on-field and economic based reasons for my rationale..................you just believe they should draft whatever they need now..........I think that's a proven-unwise philosophy.

Wrong. It does add up to a 5-6 huge completed play difference. You want to start further upstream than I do to make it seem like there are less attempts. When you get to 26-30 yard throws.........Josh drops to 20th in completion %. And I don't differentiate after 40 yards........why would you need too? ALL of those throws require a similar trajectory. As I said..........he's a top 4 overall QB who is a middle of the league in deep ball touch/timing/accuracy...........and again, I anticipate that he will make huge strides there after another offseason focusing on it.

There isn't a line right at the end of round 1........I actually feel that you should not be using second round picks on lesser positions either...........the Ford pick was a mistake made reaching up for "need"......... I don't know that they've learned from that but they should have. But you should know that there IS a significant difference between pick 30 and 33.........it's called the 5th year option.............not valuable if you choose a RB or "RT only" and they pan out.........but very valuable if you get a good QB, pass rusher, CB1 or LT.

That's a good example..........the NFL of 1998 was a much different league..........but that year Moulds was an absolute beast in YAC. In 1998 Moulds averaged over 20 yards per reception. Last year Diggs averaged 12 yards per reception. Moulds never played anywhere near that level again but it remains the most explosive, dynamic season I've ever seen from a Bills WR. Before you talk any more about Allen's completion % or the relative catch % rates...........Tua Tagovailoa finished 29th in the NFL in completion % last season........he would have lead the league with that figure(64%) in 1998. Still, Diggs is a great player and ONE big playmaker for the Bills........but great after the catch he is not. You may not think that the current team needs more speed at WR...........a guy that can make people miss or a guy who is just great at getting over the top......... I think the general consensus after the Chiefs game was different.

I dunno........they couldn't stop Mecole Hardman either and Anthony Schwartz might be a better comp for him than Moore is to Tyreek Hill. I don't think that means they should reach for Schwartz. I really don't think Moore is going to be a Tyreek Hill........there are so many more instances of undersized, fast, shifty players who fail badly than succeed........let alone become generational talents like Hill.

Fun player to watch but that speed is less impressive when you consider he is just 175#.........and I think they dipped him in maple syrup before they weighed him because he doesn't even look that big. I think he will have a longer NFL career than Dri Archer because Williams actually seems to like playing football.............but he's about the same size and Archer was a much faster player.

The usual suspects will try to demand otherwise but as great as Diggs is at shaking coverage...........he becomes mortal after he catches the ball. The Bills do not have that other kind of guy. Obviously, with the emphasis so many fans have on waterbugs in this draft, most at least realize that they could use a game breaker opposite Diggs.

@Kirby Jackson was a big Pooka Williams fan. Hope KJ and @thebandit27 are doing OK.......their input here is especially missed this time of year.

The stars in the league come predominantly from the first 3 rounds.........check any pro bowl roster. Disagree about Imatorbhebhe even being an explosive WR despite his jumping ability.........you don't really see that in his actual game........he reminds me more of Jonnu Smith as a prospect than any successful current WR.

Yeah I think you want a WR corps like a basketball team........a variety of talents..........they don't have that now. I am still holding out hope that Chris Mortensen is right and Russell Wilson still might be dealt to Chicago or Carolina before the draft.......and that DK Metcalf then becomes available in trade.

Nearly 500 undrafted players are on NFL rosters every season.

I like Fehoko but see his ceiling as more of a potential Chase Claypool type. He has weird hands like Claypool. It's like the two hands arrive at the right time but one hand always seems to arrive in the wrong place and leads to a lot of double catches etc..

I like the 3 namers a lot in those round ranges. Austin Watkins is smooooooth..........it's guys like him that make me not want to see the Bills lose the draft at WR by over drafting a guy early.

He could go by round 5.......only takes one team.........but the only thing freaky about his athletic profile at his pro day was his vertical leap. I mean there are much bigger WR's like Fehoko and Harris with similar college production running sub 4.4's at their pro days......it is probably the deepest WR class ever.

I actually like Khafre Brown more than his big bro Dyami. Just a bit faster version who will probably be Howell's WR1 next year and a RS soph so he could be in next years draft. Which is kinda' my thing about taking Dyami in round 1..........there are going to be a lot of "good" mid-sized WR's.........the pipeline on those doesn't appear to be drying up. I like Dyami but don't really see the Diggs comp..............Diggs was a monster recruit who was dominant the minute he set foot on campus.......he just went to a bad team.

Even Sean McDermott says WR is the Bills "fastball"............I don't expect them to let the position atrophy.

I wouldn't be shocked if he went in round 7 or undrafted..........this draft is just so deep at WR..........there are some big, athletic freaks like him and Simi Fehoko and Jacob Harris etc.. that are projected to go late that would have been pushed WAY up boards in some of those weak WR drafts prior to 2018. I expect the Bills to take one of these guys late and try to turn them into a special teams stud while they develop them. You know JI is going to get a shot as a kick blocker with those crazy hops and if he can be a gunner he might get a long chance to develop as a WR.

Gainwell catches the ball with ease all over the field..........doesn't matter if it's a short throw or a deep ball.........that's a rare trait for a RB and a Bills fan will see a little Thurman Thomas in that. He also had a tremendous pro day which supports what you described. I don't value RB's a lot but if they hadn't already used two #3's on RB's I'd like Gainwell quite a bit in round 3.

Yeah I am not sold on Toney as becoming a WR1 so I wouldn't go round 1 on him. I think he plays 4.5 speed on the field and he's so raw as a WR that it squares up as a likely disappointing pick at 30. Not Dyami Brown either.........though in the 2015-2017 drafts yes he'd be a top 30 player because of the positional value and lack of quality at the position. I think his ceiling is below that of an Emmanuel Sanders........and with such an influx of young talent into the league veteran talents like Sanders are going to be available for reasonable rates in UFA for the next several years and I want my 1st round pick to be a potential $20M guy. Marshall I like at #30 because he could develop into a WR1 guy.........coming into the season he was the guy I was hoping the Bills could end up with......and he was terrific when he played.......but I don't love it as much now........I don't think I would pass on Eichenberg or Rousseau for him in a draft with so much talent at WR.

Again: Passes over 25 yards in 2020: Aaron Rodgers 47% Russell Wilson 41% Josh Allen 33% Leaving just those 5-6 very big passing plays on the table is a lot.........in the same way as the difference between 5 sacks or TD's versus 10-11 is a lot........it's a league full of small stats that are very impactful. And for all the talk about completion %..........that doesn't even tell the whole story. Go back and watch the Cover 1 youtube review of the game at NYJ as a good example............Allen had a busted coverage throw to a wide open Kroft that was caught but it came in so hot that Kroft lost his balance after the catch.........he also tucked the ball on some wide open deep shots in that game that a QB like Aaron Rodgers (whose level Allen aspires to) throws every time. Missed big plays and more wear and tear.

The much more important aspect wrt drafting him in round 1 is that he's not a LT prospect, IMO. The part about him playing past the whistle is just part of his comp to Ford..........who has been a disappointment to say the least.

Yeah I actually think that late first thru the second round is a place where a lot of mistakes could be made.........there are some guys in this draft that should absolutely go in the first..........but then there is a drop-off where I don't see much difference in risk/reward/value between the next group and guys that could end up going on day 3. I'm not a fan of the gadget guys early..........I know a lot of fans are.........but just because we want a Tyreek Hill doesn't mean the Bills can just go get theirs. If you believe the way mock drafts are being set up round 2 is full of them. The hype is out of control. Dri Archer ran a 4.26 at the combine and had a much more productive college career than Rondale Moore.......with the Tyreek-mania nowadays..........he would probably be rationalized as a Bills target at 30 if he was in this draft. Will be interesting to see if the NFL teams have a more realistic outlook on these undersized guys than the fans do.

As @GunnerBill said........it's just a very deep draft.