BADOLBILZ

Nah, man. Who said Beane was "spending big" on anything in free agency? Not me. Noah Brown is very much the type that I am talking about. But if you think Noah Brown is signing after the draft for $1.7M you are crazy. That's a $5M-$9M type contract and likely done in the 6 weeks prior to the draft most likely. Just because boundary WR should be the #1 priority in both UFA and the draft doesn't mean that they can't sign another $7M Emmanuel Sanders type to serve as the hedge against a very wide range of potentially unsatisfactory outcomes with only a rookie or a Sherfield type at on the boundary.

I never said they would get a "quality WR2". None of the guys Cover 1 mentioned are "quality WR2's". Those players all have a combination of potential to possibly produce 600-800 yards AND some actual solid past production to prove it. Hence "high ceiling". Those guys aren't all going to get $12M-$15M. Some are going to get $5M to $9M to "prove" they are worth more next year........figures which the Bills can dice up with void years like they did with the Leonard Floyd contract.

Yeah I am not nearly as panicked about the defensive vacancies as some. It's two-fold........I think they can still be coached up and young-player-developed to be top 10 again........and if it doesn't turn out that good I am also willing to fall back toward the middle for one season if it means turning the offense into a much more efficient machine. I wasn't worried about the MLB position last year and that turned out even better than I thought so I tend to lean more to the likelihood that they can still get to top 10 without spending much in FA. And I agree that "on paper" it makes sense to pass on veteran WR's. But that's all well and good until the 1st round rookie tears an ACL in minicamp and you got NOTHING outside but Justin Shorter. Not having insurance at that boundary WR position and then having to have Allen pound the rock 9-10 times again next year just to hopefully clinch a playoff spot in week 17(again) would be a grave injustice to Allen's career. The risk of that happening is not worth the cap savings. When they didn't address this boundary WR need in either of the prior 2 offseasons they left themselves with zero margin for error this offseason, IMO. I hate to even throw $5M-$6M gtd money at a Josh Reynolds type but that boundary WR position is not as easy to address as MLB or Safety. There probably ISN'T one of those waiting to emerge from spots 48-53 or the practice squad. Like I said when they signed Sharty and Sherfield last year........their relatively long histories said they were NOT going to produce........and sure enough, they did not. The Bills need someone with more than one season where they weren't otherwise trash.

Guys like Mooney, Samuel, Brown and Reynolds are the high ceiling veteran market the Bills could potentially shop in and use void years to fit that player in with a very low initial cap hit. Regarding "the holes on D"......... while I'd like to address DT in the first 6 weeks of free agency.......I can address those all after the draft if need be.

There is a long distance between not treating boundary WR like it's the clear #1 need and "ignoring" it. I know that some people look at the draft.........decide what the order they think the players will fall and which needs will be filled.........and THEN figure out how they want to address free agency based on that. That's not the order the system works in though. The reality is that the Bills could pass on signing one of the WR's that are available in FA...........and then get to the draft and 6 WR's go before their pick and the next boundary WR on their board has a late second round grade. That's kinda' like what happened last year. Kincaid was the pivot and he's nice but what they pivoted from is still what they need. I'd rather have a high ceiling veteran free agent in place and then have a top WR option end up at pick #28 than to risk not getting one at all because I wanted to try to patch holes on defense first.

It kinda' speaks to your thread about how people aren't fully appreciating having a Josh Allen. Some fans are so concerned with patching "on paper" holes that they don't really care if that means putting another ton of hard miles on Josh Allen. The main objective of an organization with a truly elite young QB should be to make sure you do everything you can to maximize his ability. They've tried the "other" approach for the last 3 seasons and it's only buried them in cap debt. Probably time to try to put an offense around Allen that can score 35 points per game and at the same time get cap healthier and much younger on defense. Maybe that means they are on a 2 year re-tool instead of running it back to a re-match with the Chiefs next season...........but then again maybe they do the right thing and STILL surprise and play better than expected on defense and finally break thru.

I think the Cover 1 people have given some fans the impression that re-structuring contracts doesn't ALWAYS come at the expense of the future cap by implying that the Bills cap situation is just naturally going to get better. The Bills will have to work and make some tough decisions to make it better. They weren't very forthright about that. Thompsett knows better but as anyone who saw that video knows, they are a very sentimental group. I'm not interested in guaranteeing Morse base salary by distributing it over void years and missing that opportunity to save $8M asap and move on.............Nor am I interested in doing extensions for Morse or Bates. Ideally neither is on the roster by 2025 so I don't want to have another $10M+ in dead cap tied up in them in 2025. I'm done with running it back with all of these guys that were 6-5 at midseason 2 of the past 3 seasons and looked tired in the playoffs in each of the past 3. Time for a re-tool. And a good draft year to have playing time opportunities available instead of all being blocked by over-priced vets.

Beane's tendency has been to try to retain EVERYONE. He once even offered and gave Star Lotulelei and Vernon Butler pay cuts after they'd screwed him with poor effort in prior seasons. He's been a sucker for pay cuts. Which I think mostly just disincentive players to buy-in. So that is the regard where I agree that I'm not certain he will move on from guys like Morse and White. But I don't think going from Morse to Ryan Bates is a "huge" change. Bates best position was long viewed as center and they paid him starting money in FA and he probably would have been the starting left guard last season had Torrence not fallen to their spot in round 2. Not like they don't have a promising solution in place to replace the pretty average Morse(who was probably their worst or second worst starting OL last season). And they need the cap space to address those other lesser stocked positions you mentioned. Which is the larger point.

Maybe at age 27 Bates will be a better option than Morse at age 32. That's often how it works. But for $8M difference if it's close, it's enough. I also like Anderson's potential(another OT kicked inside like Morse and Bates) and I even think maybe McGovern might be a better center option longer term if the Bills decide to go with a more physical left guard in 2025. They aren't bereft of options at center like they are at RT behind Brown, for instance. Again.........it's a strong OL draft. If they invested in a top 3 round center that guy is starting, IMO. They don't have the luxury of picking a non-primo position early and cultivating it given their cap circumstance. Lot of future starting centers in this draft though. Maybe as many as 8?

Yeah it's just an interesting detail considering how happy he seemed to be about moving closer to his central NY home/family/business interests when he came to the Bills. Not your typical Bills player that is originally from the south or CA. It's pretty common for players to have fully stocked homes in 2 places and his playing situation would surely be cleared up in 2-3 months so packing everything up and taking it back to TN is notable. Even if he and his wife just wanted to spend the winter in Nashville and then re-locate in Buffalo if he re-signs it wouldn't seem necessary to move twice. Maybe he just plans to come back without the wife and daughter(like when he played for Carolina) if he does re-sign? Could be a lot of things but it's notable under the circumstance.

Agree. I'd probably be more bullish on Burrow than Allen if I actually believed that Bengals ownership would extend themselves financially the way the Pegula's have. And even that is tempered some by Burrow's mounting injury history. His calf and wrist injuries last year are the kind of thing you usually see with old man QB's.

Why is it a guarantee that you weaken the line by subtracting Mitch Morse? He's a pretty average center IMO. Not a difference maker any longer. They have Bates and Alec Anderson under contract in reserve and it's a very deep center draft. Timing seems good, IMO.

1. Do nose tackles and 1 tech DT's really normally play well into their mid 30's? I think I've mostly heard to the contrary on that prior to this podcast. There are more obviously proven exceptions(see Marcell Dareus) but I look at generational prospects like Haloti Ngata and Dontari Poe who were pretty washed at 30-31. Interior DL seems to be more of a younger mans game, IMO. Edge rushers seem to have a better track record for aging well. In general these Cover 1 guys are WAY too sentimental about players. The Bills have largely avoided making tough decisions on vets in recent years..........and its lead to them having one of the oldest rosters year-in and year-out. IMO it's also contributed some to their tendency toward mid-season malaises. They really need to get younger and take advantage of their organizational stability by giving some more reps to younger players.

Yeah I didn't say that I thought he was going to the Bears because he moved out of Buffalo and back to Nashville(and as you see, he's tweeting from Nashville). I just suspect the Bears are going to go BIG in free agency to try to become next years Houston Texans or better with Caleb Williams on a rookie contract. I'm sure they'd be in on Chris Jones first but I doubt he makes it to UFA. Between his Bills DL coach being the Bears new DC and Pace showing an affinity for Bills players in free agency..........seems like a real good fit for him to get a nice 3 year type contract that aligns with Williams rookie window.

Yeah.........I think it's time to execute a youth-centric re-tool defensively...........and I also think Beane is finally a good enough personnel man that I might even trust him to be able to pull it off. Extending/re-working all of these old, injured players just doesn't seem wise.

I would like to have Daquan Jones back but I think he probably signs with the Chicago Bears right away in free agency. I was told by a reliable source that he packed up his entire household in Buffalo after the season and moved everything to Nashville............he could have waited on that if he thought he might have to stay in Buffalo.

That will have been 25 years ago next January. I don't think that would factor in greatly with the Jets if they are in a position where the Jets don't meet expectations. Johnson basically laid down an ultimatum. They would be desperate. Right now Belichick looks like he'd be the clear #1 candidate for any team in that position. Just weren't any of those jobs this cycle.

Doesn't help perhaps, but it's at least 90% because he's just really old. Youth will be served and the jobs that came open don't match up with his likely 3 year shelf life as a HC. Now if a job with a fully formed roster and old QB at the end of his career comes up then he probably gets that next cycle.

Yeah, same sentiments on those players. In 2016 I really disliked the Shaq Lawson pick(as you know) and would have preferred to have the potential of Jones between the two but I also probably would have taken Myles Jack before either of them. He was considered a generational talent and it looked like a line of low-motor underachievers at DL after him. And that didn't work out for Jacksonville and is another reason to not buy into "generational" non-premium-position players in round 1, IMO. That 2016 draft had some notable busts and over-drafted DL in the first couple rounds but also produced Jones, Bosa, Hargrave, Floyd and Ngakoue..........which made it a huge pass rusher draft.

And so it begins....... https://www.mlb.com/news/5-takeaways-from-aaron-boone-s-opening-news-conference and then it really begins....... https://nypost.com/2024/03/11/sports/gerrit-cole-injury-scare-should-spur-yankees-into-action/ and then it continues......... https://www.mlb.com/news/aaron-judge-abdominal-injury-2024 Here is the link this year to the box scores for the Yankees and all of their minor league affiliates all on one page........just change the day on the left every day if it doesn't refresh. Scranton is playing games currently. Somerset (AA) begins Friday April 5. High A and Low A won't be far behind and then the short season(rookie league's and Dominican Summer League begin in June). https://www.mlb.com/prospects/stats/affiliates?teamId=147

I haven't given up. I think they can catch Ottawa and get in the top 5. https://www.tankathon.com/nhl

Here's the thing........nobody had any idea in their draft years that Watt and Jones had ceilings anywhere near what they developed into. Both were seen as stiff, unathletic guys. Watt was modestly productive(your standard 11 sack Wisconsin OLB) and Jones had been a big disappointment at Mississippi State. They tested well at the combine and boosted their stocks UP to where they were picked.......which wasn't early in either case. Below is Mayock talking Jones down as he runs the 40. NSFW.

Priority list 1. Make your super-elite top 3 talented QB look as good as he can. 2. Everything else in much less specific order. I think people get so focused on how the Patriots and later the Chiefs have done something.......and how to do THAT........that they lose sight of the obvious. Once you've put a couple of Lombardi's in the trophy case and you've decided that your HC is a genius in his own right(and the owner's appetite for paying superstar wages has diminished) well THEN you play the games that the Chiefs have successfully for the past 2 years. One of the common traits of champions who go on runs like NE and KC is that they take advantage of teams who build "not to lose" to them. That's the "hole patching" mentality that Brandon Beane has cultivated. The smarter teams........the one's who break thru against them.........lean into their strengths with the intention of BEATING them. One of my favorite goofy Bills fan takes is complaining that the Bills never sack Mahomes in a playoff game............while ignoring that the Chiefs don't sack Josh Allen either. Think about it.

A first round pick is that rare a chance to get a talent at a premium position that would normally cost in the $20M-$30M aav range if they play to expectations. Using that kind of chip on a safety is just not logical. They are just too easy to find. The free agent market is usually loaded with them..........because like RB's........teams know they can be easily replaced so they don't want to pay them. This year's free agent class is no different. Loaded and there will be solid one's available cheap enough even for the Bills.

Yeah the reality is that Carter probably should be in prison right now. Not saying a murder 1 sentence necessarily.........but it was literally just a year ago.........he should have gotten at least a year or more for his role in the deaths that occurred. I have a hard time generating any sympathy for him when people bring it up and hurt his feelings. You do something incredibly stupid and people get killed you have live with public opinion on your actions. Carter fell in the draft because he's of suspect character and intelligence. Trying to re-direct scorn for what he did on other players isn't the way to make people forget that.