BADOLBILZ

Ok then you are being ignorant. Is that better? Not separating wasn't what people "think". It wasn't just an opinion........it was charted in-season. Way before he ran the slow 40 at the combine. You are conflating what people "think" with his what his performance told us. People "thought" he caught a high % of contested passes. Again, the numbers said otherwise.

The draft process on WR's here on TSW was long and very involved. The data and tape on Coleman was pretty definitive.........he did not separate well in college. We knew this in November/December. He didn't enter the offseason draft process with the same trajectory he had in September/October. The narrative that he was great at contested catches was debunked slightly later in the process than the separation question. Perhaps that's what you are confused about.

Yep. I remember your thoughts. Coleman was not a first round prospect by how the NFL grades them or even just being one of the top 32 players in the draft. His upside could be special for a number of reasons, but he was raw. I've compared him to Davante Adams. Adams was more polished than Coleman but still was rightfully ranked about the same (8th-10th) compared to his peers in the 2014 class. He hit his ceiling. But it took time. It's not likely at all that Coleman will ever reach what I perceive as his "potential" but I don't think Bills fans could handle Coleman coming out of the box with 2 sub 500 yard seasons like Adams did.

This is basically what all you said boils down to. Kincaid is likely to be as good as Kelce..........but that everything else I said is true. I am a big Kincaid fan but there have been TONS of TE's who have had better seasons than 673 and 2 and not gone to become Kelce. Sorry. Let's see him have anything resembling a pro bowl season before we jet past All Pro and first ballot HOF. As for your attempt at a cherry picked regression model.........yeah Kelce averaged 61 over his last 7 in 2022. But he averaged 84 over his first 7 in 23'. And he didn't average "60.8" or less in 23'. Learn how to use data. If you want to say a number proves decline then the SUCCEEDING numbers need to reflect that. Travis Kelce had a different year in 2023. He had a higher catch % than any of the previous 8 seasons which indicated the need to be more of a possession receiver due to the lack of productive depth at WR. And nagging injuries resulted in playing almost 150 less snaps than he had in the prior 2 seasons. That and resting the finale hurt his bulk numbers significantly. Still a GREAT year with unreal performances that would be hard for any TE to top. Like finishing his year catching an incredible 20 of 21 targets in the AFCCG and SB for over 200 yards. But Kincaid is "likely" to be as good you say. No, he's not "likely" to be that good. We can hope but his over/under for receiving yards is in the 700's because that is what the actuaries see as "likely".

I could definitely see Kincaid putting up 2014 Kelce numbers..........but it's just not relevant to the discussion about this years Kincaid being expected to rival the impact of the 1338 yard 12 TD All-Pro level 2022 version of Kelce. Even if he improves to year 2 Kelce level having nearly 500 yards and 7 TD's less is a ton. And to my point about it being irrelevant........the 2014 Chiefs passing game was so bad that they are the only NFL team in the last 60 years to not throw a single TD pass to a WR all season. Finished 29th in the league in passing yards with just 3100 total.

That's how I feel watching the team stretch. A coach blows a whistle, most of the guys get in one position pretending they are stretching. Then don't really move for a minute or two(especially the lineman). Then they blow the whistle and everyone gets up. All stretched! We've all seen Bills teams that had a lot more soft tissue injuries than McD's teams. Remember Wade's teams that were ALWAYS nursing muscle injuries? Rex teams had it bad too. Sloppy coaches usually equate to more of them, IMO. But what's the point of taking time out to stretch and then not really doing it? Maybe they need to stretch their toes better.

Yes, all of them. Were you not aware that the Bills had already been to the AFC championship game in the 88' season? Or that they entered 89' as an AFC SB favorite? They didn't come from nowhere in 1990.

TURF toe. You are thinking of camel toe. They aren't doing any clam slammin' out there, if you go to the practices you see these guys barely even stretch it's amazing they don't have more soft tissue injuries.

Just Abuncha' Guys tracks

The parameters used to draw comparisons between the passing game weapons the Bills currently possess and those that the Chiefs took into 2023 are SOOOOOOO stretched that basically almost every team can make a similar claim. And the Chiefs then finished 3rd in pass attempts and 6th in yardage.......outstanding pass game production......so MOST such comps would be utter bullish!t. I mean in 2022 MVS literally had more receiving yards than any of Kincaid, Shakir or Samuel did last season. And Kincaid coming off 672 yards and 2 TD's is supposed to be a full comp for Kelce coming off 1338 and 12. Yeah, if you overlook that the Chiefs returning players were a lot more productive and that they had three 1st and 2nd round prospects from the 2 most recent drafts fighting it out for spots it's JUST like the Chiefs last year.

So you've gone from KC had "nothing" at WR to "average" and still think I missed your point? Being a WR1 producer is obviously not AVERAGE. They got WR1 production from Juju and Rice each of the last two years. With Mahomes they have ALWAYS had 2 pass catchers that would have been the top pass catcher on a number of other teams. The Bills have not. Even with Diggs in 2021, 2022 and 2023. You are trying to cherry pick from apple and orange trees. It's not working.

I didn't miss the point. A lot of fans on here think that KC's WR's have sucked the past two years and that they've won in spite of them. They are wrong. They have had a WR1 level producer in every season since Mahomes has been there. Add in the GOAT split TE in Travis Kelce and they had 2 of the top pass catchers in the NFL yet again last season. Could Kincaid or Shakir or Keon give the Bills two of the top 32 pass catchers in the NFL? Perhaps but it was less likely than when KC brought back the 1338 yard 12 TD Kelce to go along with 3 early picks in the 2022-2023 drafts. KC hedged their bets by having 3 players who were seen as round 1 or round 2 prospects in those drafts........and one of them panned out. The Bills need to go 1 for 1. And Coleman has nowhere near the experience and production that Rice had coming out of SMU so expecting him to excel as quickly is asking A LOT. Rice put up more than twice the yardage that Coleman did in their final seasons and twice the catches and yardage for their careers.

1) Mostly true but he's more than a clean-up sack guy. He will get his share of early-in-down sacks if he can stay healthy. His game is using his length and power and being elite and locating the QB stepping up in the pocket. Shaq was a cleanup sack guy which more implies being a step slow, IMO. 2) I don't have a PFF grade for him but I think @GunnerBill is an every down player. 3) For wider alignments you generally need bigger LB's. Those funnel the RB's to LB. The Bills defense protects the LB's which allows them to be smaller/quicker. Also aligning wide doesn't help Rousseau's game, IMO.

Rashee Rice was good by October and a stud by late November and finished as a clear NFL WR1. He put up 86 receiving yards per game in his last 5. He was 21st in receptions and 28th in yardage(938) among NFL WR. KC sat him and the other starters in the finale or he ends up close to or over 1,000 as a rookie. Is a 77.5% catch rate, 7 TD and 44 1st downs more than "basically nothing"? So yes, you stand corrected.

You might just need a man-boost. They say it happens to a lot of men over 40.

Actually it was @Avisan: " ~60% completion percentage for ~4,200 yards and 25 touchdowns."

@Avisan already ran the numbers on what to expect from a 525 target season for Mack Hollins.

Like I said........for many, many reasons their passing game doesn't project to be as good as the Chiefs did. You may very optimistically claim that Kincaid (or Shakir and Samuel for that matter) have "HOF upside" coming off 600 yard receiving seasons........but the Chiefs had 3 HOF locks. Kelce was coming off 1338 yards and 12 TD's.

Prior to last season the Chiefs had 3 first ballot HOF'ers(Reid,Mahomes, Kelce) leading their passing game. First ballot locks if they had all quit prior to the season. They had won 2 of the last 4 SB's and had two of the top 32 receiving yardage leaders for 5 consecutive seasons.......even after trading Tyreek. Contrast that with the 2024 Bills passing game. They've been outperformed in the passing game by KC every year since 2020(which was the last time the Bills had two receivers in the top 32 in yardage). If Allen retired tomorrow there is no HOF in his future. He's Randall Cunningham or Mike Vick if it ends now. Not even Cam Newton level yet because no SB appearance and no MVP award. It was fun, but that's about it. Brady? Kincaid? Shakir? Samuel? Not even Hall of worth mentioning yet. So it's pretty clear why the Chiefs might warrant the benefit of the doubt. Is it not? Is it really apples to apples when the Bills are as unproven by comparison? But why were the Chiefs WR deficient in the first place? Because they had 2022 1st and 2nd round picks on the team(guys who had made big plays and scored TD's in their most recent SB win) and a 2023 second round pick WR. They were expecting those highly invested, high pedigree players to breakout and complement the already great Kelce and a receiver in MVS who had produced more yards in 2022 than any of the Bills current weapons did in 2023. More than Kincaid, Shakir or Samuel. A lot went wrong..........but as usual they still finished with 2 of the top 32 receiving yardage leaders because Rice became a WR1 during the season. They even rested their starters in week 18 and still ranked that highly. So like I said........you judge what they took to camp which was unproven but made some sense given their investments made in Moore/Toney/Rice. Then look at the autopsy. The autopsy says they finished 3rd in pass completions and 6th in passing yards so their passing game was actually really good. And their season only ended because they ran out of teams to beat. If the Bills do that, great. But they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt like HOF'ers with rings. Sorry.

YOU need to relax. It's only week one, for chrissakes! As I've said before.........you look at the team you took to camp and then you do the autopsy at the end of the season. They took a bottom of the league WR corps to camp. We won't know for certain if the plan worked until the end of the season. In the meantime, everyone feel free to express your potentially fluctuating opinion daily even if some jag thinks you aren't relaxed enough.

And finally Dominguez gets called up for the Yankees/Tigers game from Williamsport https://nypost.com/2024/08/18/sports/yankees-call-up-jasson-dominguez-for-first-time-this-season/ might just be for a game but reportedly batting 5th

Great post. Andreessen's play stunned me. I didn't see anything from him last week and then he's suddenly doing everything right. It is not easy to get me concerned about the LB corps. They are still some of the easier athlete profiles for an NFL team to find and(last KC loss notwithstanding) they usually get quality play from whoever they run out there. But I've been waiting for the other shoe to drop on Milano or Bernard getting injured all camp and Spector and Ulofoshio are brittle too. Then Milano happened. Having Andreessen and Williams look good was a relief and a renewal of the confidence I always have in back 7 positions with McD. Rousseau - I've been a big believer in Rousseau and I think it's his time. He still really needs a edge bender opposite him to maximize his skills but I think he's going to have a big year. Davis - We saw why he's so good. The Bills haven't had a lot of his style of RB over the last 15 years so it was fun to see that more Travis Henry-like low c-of-g style again. Grable - I'm a fan of the young depth on the OL. I think Beane will be able to get a late pick or a swap for the 10th or 11th guy. Beane........I'd say we have to itemize Beane's good night as just wrt his day 3 picks. Those look really good. Obviously the day 1-2 picks haven't as yet and guys like Trubisky and MVS look like terrible signings. And on day 3 I'm still perplexed about why they didn't want Austin Booker and instead traded that pick to the Bears for a 4th next year. That felt like a gift of the particular kind Beane most loves(pass rusher) when he fell there. Solomon has looked like a very good developmental prospect and offers great special teams versatility with his compact frame and long arms as well......and I liked that pick in isolation........but Booker really checks all the boxes for the McDefense physically. Mitch Trubisky - I absolutely hated that signing. I think I argued with you a bit in the offseason about just HOW bad he is. His confidence is SHOT. He might kick around the NFL long enough to get it back sometime in his 30's but even this gig is too big for him right now. Jonathan - His lack of progress/consistency has been a disappointment. Torrence - For what it's worth, I heard he was very good in the practice setting against Pittsburgh. Seems like a lot of nitpicking of the OL from observers this preseason.......I feel good about the OL in general. It was time for Mitch Morse to go, IMO. Especially if they want to be more physical. What I don't feel good about is that they are going to be basically playing against loaded boxes all season if they don't find a solution to their lack of a threat to stretch the field. WR battle - it's gone exactly to any reasonable person's expectation. No answers whatsoever on the boundary. Practice squad - yeah like we discussed last week.........they don't have 53 gotta'-keep NFL players. They are probably going to keep a bunch of guys they would have tried to slip thru to the PS any other training camp over the last 5 years and just shrugged if they couldn't.

SHOULD. They only have 3 WR's of any consequence. Hollins is just a special teamer. Nobody would have been surprised if MVS was nothing more than a practice squad player this year given how his career turned for the worse last season. They are at the point where they are looking for retired players to come back to the NFL. Wow. I fully expect Will Fuller to be in for a tryout next. 😂

Metcalf is the ideal fit, IMO. I even strongly prefer him over Aiyuk, which is why I haven't been all that interested in him even though Aiyuk is universally seen as the better regular season player at this point in their careers. Metcalf's skillset just lines up with what the Bills lack. A weatherproof field stretcher who EXCELS when the refs aren't throwing flags. 4 career playoff games(3 on the road) and he has 451 yards and 5 TD's. He's probably the only playoff-Kelce equivalent at WR. And Metcalf's two highest yardage playoff games top anything Kelce has in his 22 game postseason career. Granted, it's a small sample size.......but we know why Metcalf succeeds in the playoffs so there isn't any reason to think it wouldn't continue to translate.

Yeah some hilariously horrible takes in that one. @Jay_Fixit "Mahomes will be awful. And there’s nothing Andy Reid can do about it" @oldmanfan just crapping on Mahomes and Reid all that preseason and then coming back to close the thread with more of his customary sour grapes. One of the best though is @H2o starting the thread and trolling @jeffismagic..........then later saying @jeffismagic is probably laughing at "us". Throwing all TSW under the bus for a thread he, for some strange reason, felt compelled to start. Classic! The list of bad takes is long.