BADOLBILZ

There are things that you have to be flexible about........like being willing to trade up or down, for instance. Then there are things that you should never do..........there is no process that doesn't have absolutes. RB in round 1 you really have to draw a line there if you are being reasonable. The data is just overwhelmingly against going RB, regardless of pedigree. We were actually saying this back in the 90's when the Bills drafted Antowain Smith......and then shared backfields happened (IMMEDIATELY after the Bills decided Travis Henry and Willis McGahee couldn't possibly be asked to split carries).........and then the rules changes of 2010 happened. I'm not saying Beane feels that way at all.........he's thrown a lot of day 2 draft capital at RB's and he was brought up in Carolina where they drafted RB's in round 1 three times while he worked there. As for Ed Oliver.........all his selection does is make me want to be more process oriented on draft day. I wanted Metcalf there..........but was satisfied with an interior lineman because we could characterize Oliver as a pass rusher. That hasn't panned out. And I should have known better too.........because I knew then that he couldn't play DE. I was seemingly the only TSW advocate of selecting Aaron Donald in round 1 back in 2014........but I knew Donald could play DE. That's an example of what your thought process does when you are willing to overlook things that separate the rare "exceptions" that worked.

Obviously the alternative is risk a step back in the defensive rankings.........I'm not suggesting plugging in a fringe roster option like Dodson or a waiver wire pickup like Klein and finishing 28th in pass D or whatever the implication is...........but how much more stress than 36 points and 500 yards of offense allowed do you think can be put on the defense? That's the average allowed the last 3 playoff losses. Edmunds gets exceptionally worse against the best QB's. By contrast, a less talented but more instinctive player like Logan Wilson doesn't have the same drop-off because those instincts allow him to adapt and compete. I thought Edmunds was actually more impactful against Cinci than in prior playoff losses.........but his improvement has been so small in that regard that you have to wonder if there is enough more coming soon enough to justify the investment. His age and the potential for low cap hits in the next few years make it a tough call for Beane.

I think the biggest issue is that run defense is all about effort and execution...........and in the playoffs the intensity raises and it gets A LOT harder to run the football. So if your offense is built around getting a certain amount of production from your running backs........you are almost certain to have to change what you have been doing all season in the playoffs. @dave mcbride mentioned the Saints...........I don't think Kamara was injured all those years with the Saints.........he just got neutralized and the Saints weren't able to adapt.

Great list. And there is no denying that drafting them earlier is much more likely to get you the better individual player..........that goes for all positions.........but their impact in the playoffs is generally small and getting smaller the past decade. The leading rusher for the winning team in the past 7-8 SB's has averaged about 30 yards or so. Some of that is split backfields which started to become prevalent in the late 2000's.........but any avenue you take leads to the conclusion that investing significant assets in a RB is not capital well spent. Every year there is that one guy that some people call an exception............but in the past 30 years the Bills have passed on and lived to regret exactly zero RB's that eventually went round 1. It's almost certain to be a regrettable choice.

For KC.......with a SB win in hand(and now 2)........yeah it would be pretty easy. It's a little more complicated for the Bills........when you haven't won one there is a tendency to try to force your way to the top with top end talent. On paper.......the Bills probably should have won or at least been in the last 2 SB's..........top offenses and defenses.........biggest and second biggest point differentials in the league........so there is maybe a bit of reluctance to take a step back talent-wise. But I think you gotta' see thru that as an organization and be willing to change things even if you tend to think they only didn't work because of unfortunate circumstances or the like.

It's a tough call for sure. I think the options are: Keep Edmunds and keep everything the same defensively..........continue to mostly dominate average to bad teams on that side of the ball......but accept that you will be carved up by Mahomes/Burrow/Trevor types and have to outscore them. Or change your style of defense to some extent...............maybe funnel the run inside more and have a more instinctive and better run defender in the middle. This possibly improves the pass rush by giving them wider splits. Personally, I think it's time for a change. But what really makes it tantalizing to keep Edmunds is that you could give him a LONG contract at his age and work with small cap hits for the next few seasons and not have to deal with dead money from the deal until the late 2020's possibly.

You really need to have a draft process and stick to it if you want to be consistently good in the draft.......but hey, 1/4 of the league turns over it's staff/schemes every year.........so drafting for need and making exceptions are common mistakes..........which is why very few teams are anything more than average at drafting. I wouldn't take a RB in round 1 ever for reasons already mentioned but regarding him being an "exception"........Robinson lacks the HR speed of Saquon Barkley.........who would run a 4.3-4.35 on the new Indy surface.......so they aren't really comps, IMO. Doesn't mean he can't be great........Arian Foster had a similar style and was a 4.68 speed then (about 4.6 by on todays tracks most likely) and averaged over 1400 yards rushing in a 3 year stretch as the best RB in the NFL at the time. But Arian Foster was undrafted. It's just not that hard to find RB production.

Thanks chongli........I added this list to the OP...........If people want to start separate threads for individual lists that is fine with me I am just trying to create a good one stop for the links on UFA at least. If other people find them just add and I will put in the OP when I see them.

It works both ways. It's money that could have been used elsewhere..........but at the same time the funds were contested and won in court. Just saying it's $1B all coming from taxpayers has the OBVIOUS inference that it's coming directly out of taxpayer's pockets. Which it is NOT. It's coming from a general fund and a significant portion of which was sourced from Indian land owned casino profits.

The Athletic top 150 free agents: https://theathletic.com/4242104/2023/02/27/nfl-free-agent-rankings-list/

I was with you until the part about taxpayers kicking in $1B............$800K of that is diverted from casino tax that was won in court. Not that rich casino owners aren't taxpayers but the taxpayers you mean already spent that money on entertainment.

That his reconstructed knee hurts? That maybe 800 touches in just 3 seasons in college took a toll? The 2022 Jets finished 7-10. Since the Steelers repeated as SB champs in 1979-1980 only the 1983 Raiders(Marcus Allen), Emmitt Smith Cowboys and 2000 Ravens(Jamal Lewis) have won SB's with a RB they selected in round 1 playing a starring role for them that season. So yeah, drafting them in round 1 has been ridiculously ill advised since the rules changes of 2010............and obviously bad business for multiple decades now.........the track record extends all the way back to the early 80's. Your thinking is about 5 decades past it's expiration date.

The more important question is does it give the team the best chance to go into the 2030's and 2040's with a facility that helps them be as competitive as possible.........on the field and financially. Personally, I think the in-facility spending by fans will eventually surpass the cost of entry..........and getting people off of their wallets when they are out in the heat of late summer or the inclement weather of fall/winter is not going to be as easy as it is for teams with controlled environments. This stadium in Buffalo might be the last new "uncovered" stadium built for the NFL.

Mavs blow a 27 point lead at home. Only one win with both Luka and Kyrie Irving on court together since they traded for that screwball. The fomerly banished Ryan L Bilz who now goes by that screen name with the bald headed John Malkovich in the red track suit as his avatar........he's gotta' be sick about that trade. 😂

The Titans actually did a pretty good job at times using Henry in the RPO this year...........but yeah, he's proven to be best lined up deep behind a QB who is under center and that traditional play action allows him to get 2-3 steps going downhill. Top QB's nowadays want to be in the shotgun. Playing under center all the time is for try hard system QB's.

Terrel Buckley for Orlando might be the first XFL coach fired in-season. 😂 It's hilarious listening to the sideline interactions.

Like I said........he's a hard read. But if you do want to be in SB contention and play with one of the top 3 QB's in the league.........your options are very limited. If you want to expand that field with top QB's but with bad defense's, losing culture's or run-first offense's.........that opens up the field. My guess is he re-signs for 5 years with Tampa before UFA so they can get his cap figure down and he goes back to winning 6-7 games per season over the next 3 years.......like pre-Brady.......and calls it a career as a Buc.

Volpe lead the way in 9-5 win at Blue Jays today. Also won 7-0 versus Braves in the other game. Also........the Blue Jays broadcast seemed super pervy........is this a normal thing with Blue Jays broadcasts?

It's a disadvantage in UFA but I think it's easier to get a team focused on football in a market with less distractions. As a born and raised Miami Hurricanes fan I can tell you that football and paradise aren't great natural fits for a variety of reasons.

I'd say if he doesn't get a new contract before UFA opens in a few weeks..........that would be a red flag about his desire to play a lot longer. 29 year old 1,000 yard receivers don't go into walk years anymore. They know their value. The Bucs are in a massive salary crunch between the debt and the free agent talent............it should be a no brainer to extend him for 5 more years and push that debt down the road.

Better question is why trade something for a top RB when there are about 20 starting RB's in UFA this year. A first round pick on a RB is just foolishness. That's a chip that should be targeted to become a $20M-$30M aav value player in year 3........players at positions who rarely make it to UFA and when they do, cap strapped teams can't afford. RB's are cheap, easy to replace product. The "best player on the board" justification is nonsense. If there is a perceived future HOF kicker or punter available you still don't use a first round pick on them..........and largely for the same reason..........because smarter teams will pick very good one's late in the draft when there aren't those valuable edge/island players available and beat you in the personnel game. People look at Pacheco like the Chiefs got early round value........in reality they just got RB value..........which is always day 3. Bills weren't positioned to make a steal like that because they already shot their shot with James Cook in round 2 and had 2 other 3rd rounders on the roster already. Yes, the RB's that are picked earlier tend to have better individual careers......for various reasons.........but the teams that pick them early fair poorer for doing it.

Last game aside..........I suspect McDermott was MUCH happier working with Dorsey in 2022 than the wicky-wacky version of Daboll in 2021. It was a more consistently productive offense despite having both a less talented OL and WR corps. The Bills didn't lose any 9-6 games against the worst team in the NFL this time around and won 13 of 16 as opposed to 11 of 17.

I'm more leery of last years combine numbers than anything prior. The NFL clearly wants the combine to be must see TV and having pro day numbers be better than combine numbers was bad for participation. So they went to a new fast track surface for the 40 and it wouldn't surprise me if they changed some of the ways they measured/recorded things to produce better numbers. I'm not saying it's necessarily a 39.5 yard dash now but let's face it.......results that look large in testing can be evened out with a fraction of a second slower start by the auto timer.........and a vertical leap can be altered by the launch surface etc.. Any tricks used at pro days will get used by the NFL going forward. There is no financial disadvantage for teams to fudge numbers and make players look more amazing to the viewers.

I don't know about that. He is a different dude. I suspect if he got traded he'd want to see how the season went before he committed to an area. I'm not sure playing with a great QB is even a priority for him. He's not a diva but I watched a lot of his games this year and he seemed disinterested at times despite having Tom Brady throwing passes to him. I wouldn't be surprised if he put up another 1,000 yards somewhere but then just retired after next season.

And while Daryl Williams was just average when moved to RG in 2021..........he was way better than Saffold was at LG in 2022..........and they cut Williams and paid all of the cap savings to Saffold who was then one of the worst performing starting OL in the entire league in 2022. Yeah, Williams overall cap figure was too high but the savings wasn't worth cutting him for RS and moving Bates off of LG.