starrymessenger

Yeah the intangibles are great and extremely important. Almost, but not quite as important as, with the benefit of good coaching and experience, and with the addition of talent and continued growth of the O together with other young players like Singletary and Knox, having the game slow down for him. I think there is a good chance that all of that comes to pass in due course. I continue to think that Rosen is very talented as a passer. If his alleged lack of leadership skills is accurate however that is a big disadvantage for him to overcome. Playing QB at this level is not like playing tennis. I do think it's still much to early to write him off as a bust. As with all things only time will tell. Josh's year was a good class IMO.

Can't say I know how he would make out but I think I'd rather check him out than Foster or Smith who for different reasons pretty much stand out as a couple of non-performing deadbeats who I am tired of having to look at. I get the impression that maybe these guys get the nod because members of the coaching staff have an investment in these underperforming assets. Sometimes that happens. All aboard the A Train, choo choo. Remember that? And who was the guy from the bush leagues who had to sit? The fans clearly knew better than the staff in that case. I don't really have a dog in this fight however and for sure the coaches are more knowledgeable and closer to the action and should be making the right decisions.

The article is well written. In tone it is undeniably positive but to me it's not a product of homerism. Rather it's an accurate and realistic assessment IMO. Allen was and remains a top shelf blue chip prospect. He is not less so today than current MVP candidate Lamar Jackson once adjustments are made for differences in circumstances. As many have said there will continue to be ups and downs. I will be happy to take whatever success the Bills enjoy in the meantime but my expectation in terms of the timeline is pretty straightforward: I expect the Bills to add receiving talent, probably 2 players, another RB and one or more OLine next year. If the universe unfolds as it should, while of course nothing is guaranteed, I expect the Bills to be legit as contenders in 2021 and obviously for Allen to be a big part of that. Overall it looks to me like they are building it right.

I was only being half-serious. But I do suspect that Fitz can read a defence as well as Tom can. And Fitz is more mobile - he scrambled for a 20 yard gain yesterday until it was all called back on a bogus holding call lol. Never seen Brady do that.They can both work the pocket, especially Brady. But bottom line neither one of them can do what Aaron do (Fitz never could) as Chad would say. Anyway, though Tom was great Belly has always been the brains of that operation IMO.

He now reminds me a lot of Fitz. Except with a (still) better arm, more talent to work with, and a better OC. Fitz has better mobility. I think Fitz would be pretty good in that O. Brady will be happy to get his tackle back. I can't believe what a turnstile that Newhouse guy is.

Just curious, but if he lacks (for now) Allen's laser on out patterns, would that middle of the field soft zone coverage we are often in play to his strengths as a passer?

Agree. You no doubt recall the pre-draft commentary about this mechanical flaw. The analysts who liked him seemed pretty sure this (the narrow base) was correctable and minor as flaws go. I recall other analysts making similar comments regarding the lack of rotation in Allen's hips when following through his throwing motion (in addition to other issues). I haven't seen much of Lamar this year. Sounds from your comment that he still has work to do.

Yikes. I hope never to see Allen looking like Trubisky did last night on the sideline after he was pulled with only one or two series left to play.

And not just in football. Happens in ordinary workplace environments all the time when the new boss shows up. And it's not less stupid. I attribute it to insecurity.

Jackson looks natural throwing the football. To me anyway.

Lamar maybe doesn't come across as the next Einstein but he was smart enuf to believe in himself so he has my respect for that. He seems to know football.

Well in all honesty I don't think his season justifies that accolade so far but I don't think he's been totally right physically either. When he's on he looks really good to me so if he can play with more consistency I could see him receiving that consideration.

True and Edmunds too has been very inconsistent getting off blocks but I agree with those who say he has not been 100% physically. When on his game he's clearly playing at a high level and doing exactly what's expected of him in this defence. Plus he's a natural playmaker.

Milano is struggling to fall out of Pro Bowl contention. He really needs to crap out.

If next year's class is as great as people say, I'd consider drafting 2, with one in the later rounds if a good one is there. Regardless I think they need 2. An outside guy to complement Smoke, and a big intermediate range possession and red zone target (like Duke was supposed to be - or maybe is- who knows).

I loved Jackson coming out but I figured that he'd be a very hard sell in Buffalo after Tyrod, although it was, or should have been, clear that he was a huge upgrade. Not only was he a better runner than Tyrod even in his prime but his college tape offered the legitimate possibility of his being immeasurably superior as a passer. He has Mike Vick wheels while again with the potential to be a better passer than Vick in his early career ( though in fairness to Vick he at first had only a fat A. Crumpler to throw to). Right now Lamar looks to be the kid born with the silver spoon in his mouth benefitting, unlike Josh or Darnold, from all the advantages a privileged upbringing can confer - Roman, Harbaugh, a great front office, a good O-line, TE and WRs (not to mention a top D that will help put the ball in his hands). The suggestion that he cannot throw to wide receivers is erroneous IMO. Ravens are bringing him along properly in his, and their, passing game. Last year his was exclusively a running QB. This year the passing game is opening up albeit not fully but, over time the expectation that it will is not at all unreasonable. As he develops they will lighten up with the designed runs, RPOs and read options (although he will always be a threat to run). If they don't he might not have the lengthy career he should enjoy even if he is good at avoiding impactful hits. I think the Ravens are too smart for that to happen, especially because the payoff will greater if he refines his skills throwing the football. I think they believe he can do it. I saw him throw a thirty yard strike to the back of the end zone (Hollywood?) off his back foot falling backwards to avoid a rushing D lineman. There are only two other QBs that I've seen do that sort of thing: AR and PM. Having said all that, I would not be at all surprised either if over time the performance gap separating Lamar and Josh (or Darnold) narrows considerably. They may very well all turn into good, possibly very good QBs.

I agree with the OP. There are not enuf Julios or Hopkins to go around. Brown and Beasley are not HOF guys obviously but they very significantly upgraded our WR corps. Where would we, and Josh, be without them. We need to upgrade again in 2020, not at all necessarily with an "elite" player (though that would be nice) but with good to very good players who bring different above average skillsets to the table to address the different requirements presented by different game situations. With any luck they should be able to do that. This O also needs another RB. There is plenty of evidence that again, with some luck, you can find a really good one in the mid to late rounds. O-line obviously needs some attention, but if the Bills can address those needs, and if Daboll can settle down with better talent and properly implement his offence you could quite easily see a much more potent and consistent performance next year on that side of the ball. That's when and where I would expect a major step forward for Allen and his teammates.

I think he is showing good progress considering how raw he was coming in and considering also that he's not really playing in a good offence. Daboll has put a lot on his shoulders and calls a fair number of low percentage head scratchers . He's made productive use of Brown, who is a good WR but not exactly Julio or AJ Green. Beasley is a decent slot receiver. Singletary and Knox are coming along but they are rooks. And that's about it. Bills will get him more weapons next year, like a few more quality wideouts (including a big one).

J. Brown gets first half game ball.

Mason is not beyond reproach IMO . Think a four game suspension would be appropriate.

IMO Knox will break out big time. It prolly won't happen next week but it'll happen before the end of next year. Knox and Singletary encourage me to think that Beane and his boys can identify talent on offence. If so that's great because it's now job 1.

I too doubt that football professionals need Football Outsiders or ESPN to evaluate their QBs (that was sort of my point). If they do they should be looking for other employment. They don't need these performance measurements to form an opinion on where their QB is relative to eg league averages. They independently know, or should know this because they are close to the action and their careers depend upon the accuracy of their projections, especially in evaluating young and inexperienced QBs. But more particularly the relevance of this information as a basis for making crucial decisions is by its very nature unreliable. It may give you the heads up on where your QB is now on a comparative basis but it doesn't tell you what exactly he (and indeed the offence as a whole) needs to do to improve and, more importantly, whether he (and it) can improve. I certainly wouldn't go so far as to say that the relationship of these measurements to the all important assessment is empirically accidental. Duration, with consistency of the results over time, can certainly be indicative, especially when, needless to say, a young QB fails to improve. But, y'know, that's not good enuf when it comes to projections. The past can foretell the future sure. Or not. Will Allen improve and develop into the QB we all want to see? Idk. But I don't need Football Outsiders or ESPN to know what the issue is. The Bills knew what the issue was when they drafted him. Some of the more astute posters on this board (and I don't mean me) also know what the issue is. Some say "accuracy". Some say "mechanics". Some say "anticipation". But all these are merely derivative results. What mainly drives all of them is the ability (or the lack thereof) to process with sufficient speed the live action. Allen's accuracy (including the ability to throw his receivers open) suffers when his mechanics deteriorate. His mechanics deteriorate when he has to overcome with raw physical ability a momentary lag between how the action is developing and his reaction time. But when he is on time (and it does happen with regularity if not with desired frequency) what he is demonstrably able to do places him immediately above the average of starting calibre NFL QBs. He made some throws against the Browns that not all starters can do, or at least not nearly as well. That's what having a sky high ceiling is all about. I don't know that "boom or bust" quite captures it because I think there may be a large performance range between these extremes, but that's what people are getting at when they use these catchwords. It's a big problem and an unanswered question (although in Allen's case it looks like it has been answered to your satisfaction, albeit negatively). We often hear that accuracy is something that a prospect either has or has not, and that it really cannot be developed, and there is certainly evidence for that. What that means is that a rare and not often found chip, processing speed, is missing from Allen's computer and that his is a model that cannot be refurbished to insert it. My own view is that he may, but not necessarily will, improve. Give him a clean pocket and he performs a lot better. He.has improved his short/intermediate range accuracy. Overall he manages his progressions better than he did last year. I hope to see continued improvement. If he (and the O as a whole) can get there the payoff will be well worth the growing pains. I'm not a fanboy and I'm not making excuses for him (or Darnold) but Lamar was lucky to land with Harbaugh, Roman and a much better complement of skill position players and O-line, and a much more cohesive unit overall. In Allen's draft year I actually had Lamar graded ahead of him (I pat myself on the back). I also preferred Rosen (I kick myself in the butt). But I was, and remain, enthusiastic about our QB, fully realizing that he may not develop the way we would like. I thought, and I continue to think, that he fully justified his draft position (I thought Lamar almost faling out of the first round was ridiculous - clearly Ozzie knew better when he made sure he got that fifth year option). I agree that the Bills should draft a developmental QB if they see one they like. There should always be one that the team has some commitment to on the PS. If you feel you need to you carry three. Gardner is a hoot and he looks like he can play.

I'm not an expert by any means, but I think that DVOA, DYAR, QBR as statistical performance measures are not a basis for prudent and informed decision making by NFL teams and indeed they don't serve that purpose (though of course they may more or less in a given case align with the team's QB evaluation). They are generalized/ comparative references that can provide some insight into how well (or not) a QB is playing over the relevant period, though without direct correlation to important inputs, for example for supporting player and coaching talent. According to these measurements in 2019 Mayfield, Darnold and Allen are all pretty bad. Maybe all three teams should move on from their young QBs. And some pretty good QBs, or at least QBs having had some success, are similarly bad in one or more of these statistical catagories. So QB evaluation is a lot more complicated than that. So Allen didn't do well enuf for you in beating man coverage (I assume you might be more forgiving if you felt the opposition was better at running a man scheme). So the Bills should cut their losses. In New Jersey many Jets fans are convinced that Darnold cannot read a defence to save his life and should be discarded. To me Darnold and Allen are talented prospects who have been drafted by teams that are for perhaps different reasons somewhat dysfunctional on the offensive side of the ball. They have also been thrown directly into the action without the grooming benefits that Garropolo or Rodgers were able to enjoy. So to me you have to show patience and absorb the downside consequences in the meantime. My take is that there is a reasonable chance that Allen (and Darnold) will improve as I hope and expect his teammates and coaches will improve.

The fact that Cleveland's pass D can be vulnerable (given the injuries in their secondary) doesn't alter the fact that all other things being equal opposing teams have chosen primarily to exploit their run D. There is a reason for this. They are ranked 7th in pass D and 27th against the run. And to assume that there is no alternative but to pass against a stacked box is of course incorrect. If eight in the box was enuf to undo a run heavy offence Roman would be out of a job and Lamar would be selling insurance. Bill B stacked the box against the Ravens. He even went to a nine man front on occasion. Lamar ran for about 70 yards. Ingram ran for a buck and a half. And stacking the box exposes the D to big plays in the run game if the ball carrier gets to the second level. Typically there is only one safety left upfield. We see Lamar exploit this occasionally on long runs. Without getting into detail suffice it to say that are a number of strategies and techniques available to run heavy teams to beat a loaded front. So although stacking the box also gives an offence the possibility of using eg play action and other strategies in the passing game it does not in every case require it, and especially not exclusively. So running a back like Singletary into a stacked box can be a solution, or at least a partial solution. But I suspect you know this and in any case that's not your point. Your point is that because the Bills tried to pass and Josh didn't do to the Browns what Garropolo or Rodgers with their supporting cast would have done we need to move on from him. Well Josh played reasonably well. He made some truly big boy throws. He made some pre-snap misreads as well no doubt. He remains a talented prospect who has shown some progression in areas of his game that needed to improve. Sam Darnold was publicly humiliated by Bill B. He was completely mystified by the Pats blitz packages. Belichick would never have employed this strategy against say Rodgers or Brees. Should the Jets move on from Darnold?

I don't think making greater use of Singletary means you've given up on Josh. A good back is a young QBs best friend. I don't think that at 5'7" and 200 lbs there is any risk of shortening his career if he gets 20+ touches per in the Brown's game. He was the centrepiece, or motor, of his offence in college. Helping to carry an offence is what he does. So far I've seen nothing that suggests he is unable to transition in this role as a pro. Let one of the leagues worst run Ds prove that they can shut him down before you abandon the run entirely. Brown's didn't do that (they didn't have to). More likely the Patriots could. Browns are not the Pats. Situational awareness.